John Bonnes

What do you guys see in Gregorius that I don't? I see a guy whose sole statistical benefit is that he's young. He isn't fast. He doesn't have any power. He's not adept at getting on base. I think I'd rather have Brian Dozier than Gregorius - at least Dozier showed in the minors he can get on base. What am I missing? I'm not looking at Cozart as a star, but as a solid player for the next four years. Think Jason Bartlett but without the plate discipline, with more power and a more consistent glove.

Darn, second duplicate thread I've started today. They're combined now....

Jon Paul Morosi reports that Cincinnati Red GM Walt Jocketty is open to trading away one of his shortstops - Zack Cozart or Didi Gregorious - for a closer or center field/lead off hitter. The Twins are specifically mentioned by Morosi as one of the options for a trade. Cozart is a guy I wrote up in the Handbook. He's interesting, not spectacular. He's 27 and has some power - he hit 15 HR with the Reds and has a career slugging percentage of .421 in the minors. (His AAA numbers: .275/.327/.432 with 158K and 63 BB in 960 AB.) He's right handed, though I don't know if he's a pull hitter. Best of all, he graded out very well defensively (+9 UZR/150). IN the Handbook, I suggested trading Span for Cozart, and I don't think that's a terrible idea. But a better idea might be to float Revere. He's young, he's cheap, he's good defensively, he's a lead off guy that steals bases. (Think of him and Hamilton at the top of that lineup in a few years.) That would probably mean hanging onto Span for this offseason, but he could be moved at the deadline when Hicks is hopefully ready to be called up. Plus, the Twins have their shortstop for the next few years.

I feel a little bad about our estimate in the Handbook right now, which is quite a bit lower. But the reason it was lower is interesting, especially given this report... It's because the initial writeup of him was done at the end of August. And at that point, his time with the Tigers was a big question mark. He really struggled early with them, his numbers were down, and initially we wondered if he wouldn't need to sign a "make good" deal to show he was healthy or could pitch in the AL. Then he finished strong, seemingly answered those questions and became everyone's darling. We revised our estimate when the season was over, but it still weighed down the number a little bit. I just think it's interesting that a small number of starts - just eight - can change the paradigm or story, and suddenly the guy is guaranteed tens of millions of more dollars. Teams really are fishing in the dark on a lot of this stuff.

I wonder if the answer isn't a little more nebulous and based on supply and demand. This year, it seems like there are a few teams that are losing their center fielders and looking for a cheap replacement (Braves, Rays, Mets? Phillies?), so there is a good demand and a short supply. (Is there really anyone besided Span and maybe Victorino that fit that bill?) When it comes to power corner guys, there are more guys than Willingham on the list right now - Choo and Hunter certainly spring to mind. So maybe for now, Span is more valuable, but later, when some teams miss out on the other big names, Willingham looks more appealing. Kind of a half-baked analysis, but it does seem like the aggressive teams are chasing CFers now.

Sorry Dave. I missed it. I've merged the threads. (Hope I did it right.) I find it interesting that people are interested in Dickey but not interested in Dempster.

Damn my imagination. The Mets are suddenly a team strapped for cash, looking for outfielders and open to trading RA Dickey. While Dickey is 38 years old, he's also a decent bet to age well, struck out 9 per 9 last year and has thrown 440 innings over the last two years with a 2.99 ERA. So here are the questions that spring to mind.... 1. Who would you trade for him? Span? Willingham? Hicks? Arcia? 2. Would it require him aggreeing to a contract extenstion to complete the deal? (He's a free agent next year) 3. This forum seems to be opposed to acquiring anyone who is, well, about the age of a lot of guys on this forum. But is Dickey the exception?

So this year, about where will these guys on the Mariners be ranked in national prospect lists? ARe any top 20? Top 50? Top 100?

Not a bad honor for Mr. Willingham. It's certainly not bad compensation for having missed out on an All-Star game appearance. If he has a similar year next year, I have to think he'll get that first All-Star game call.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1160-Blogger-Rhythm-On-Ex-Twins-and-Fast-Movers

One way I could see Hunter returning...if they trade away Willingham.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1159-GATG-Ep-66-Post-mortem-Starter-Jackets-and-World-Series-Odds

[video=youtube;IwDMFC1EK0g] Aaron & John are joined by Dana, Heather & Chris to discuss Starter jackets, anti-semitism & World Series odds.

[video=youtube;IwDMFC1EK0g] Aaron & John are joined by Dana, Heather & Chris to discuss Starter jackets, anti-semitism & World Series odds.

I like them both very much. I'm glad this worked out so well. I presume (I have not talked to Joe) that he wanted this move so he could spend more time with his young kids. And Phil is a baseball guy through and through. If you ever meet him, ask him about where he's seen World Series games.

Can someone please writeup a tweet-length summary of the Mariners prospects we're talking about? I'm just not that familiar with them.

Well, I'd LOVE him. A move from the NL to the AL gives me a little pause, but he had a pretty nice stretch for the Rangers between his first couple and last couple starts. I gotta say, if you can't excited about Dempster, who can you get excited about? We're talking about a guy who has thrown nearly 600 innings the last three years, mostly for a dismal team, mostly with a sub-4 ERA. His K/9 has been over 8 for those three years too. For chrissakes, the RANGERS went out and acquired this guy last year, so they sure don't think he was washed up.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1156-Gathering-The-Pitching-Rumors-For-The-Hot-Stove

This weekend is the unofficial start of the Hot Stove Season, because this weekend the MLB General Managers are having their annual offseason meetings in Indian Wells, California. It's not the more hyped "Winter Meetings" that take place next month, but it's still 30 GMs and their assistants, all in the same place, and rumor-mongering galore. Irresponsible, glorious, rumor-mongering. Twins fans have more reason than most to pay attention. Terry Ryan indicated in his TwinsCentric interview that he intends to be aggressive early this offseason, just as he was last year. Also, it was at these meetings in 2003 that he laid the groundwork for arguably his greatest trade, swapping AJ Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. This year, he's not the only one looking to deal. There have been several reports of teams looking to make trades, and in the best possible twist, many have involved starting pitching. Let's roll through a few of them of special interest to Twins fans. The Devil Rays The Rays still are seeking a new their stadium, which means they're still hampered by payroll. Unfortunately some of their starting pitchers are getting a expensive. Even more eyebrow-raising: they are about to lose their center fielder to free agency, and don't have a great replacement. The names that have come up the most are: James Shields Shields has been #1 starter on the Rays, which means he was the anchor to the team with the best starting pitching ERA in the American League last year. He's a 200 IP horse who consistently posts a sub-4 ERA and a strikeout rate that suggests he won't decline any time soon. He'll cost $21M over the next two years, but if you subtract Span’s salary, that’ only about $11 million. There has (justly) been a TON of discussion about the Twins acquiring him, especially after it was reported the Twins inquired about him. Here are the details and discussion. Jeremy Hellickson He's not the pedigree of Shields, but he's no slouch either; he was good enough to win the AL Rookie of the Year in 2011. That also means he's still very cheap and will be under team control for the next four years. Nick wrote about the pros and cons of signing him, and it generated a lot of discussion about what fans could expect. Wade Davis Like a dozen other guys, he was covered in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook: Playing for a pitching-rich team like the Rays often means that a solid talent like Wade Davis is occasionally the odd man out of the rotation. A former Baseball America Top 100 Prospect, Davis’s spot was usurped by superior talent in Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore, pushing him to the bullpen. This was not necessarily a bad move as Davis, similar to the transition Glen Perkins made from starter to reliever, significantly ratcheted up his strikeout rate (from 15% as a starter to 31% as a reliever). His fastball missed a ton more bats and his breaking stuff (a curve and slider) were much more effective in small doses. The Rays have him signed through 2017 at a reasonable amount but his salary will begin to increase steadily. Tampa’s savvy front office will likely want to trade him this offseason while his value is at an all-time high. The Atlanta Braves The Braves are loaded with young pitching, and we previously talked about how their GM is focusing on finding an affordable center fielder. But yesterday, Dave O'Brien, the Braves beat writer, tweeted that the Braves were also sniffing around Josh Willingham. There are at least 8 young pitchers the Braves could offer, ranging from nearly worthless to likely untouchable. We walked through them in this discussion, along with who is likely and not likely with Braves writer Ben Chase. If you're looking for a name or two to tuck away, try these: Randall Delgado and Mike Minor. The Arizona Diamondbacks The GM Meetings produced a bit of a bombshell when it was revealed that the Arizona Diamondbacks would consider moving starting pitching prospect Trevor Bauer. Bauer was the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft, and thrived in his first full year, striking out 157 in 120 innings between AA and AAA. He may be a little strong-willed, and he certainly isn't a fan of President Obama, but his talent is undeniable. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks biggest needs are in their infield, but they did just trade away their center fielder. Currently the plan is to rely on a couple of youngsters to hold down that spot, but there is certainly an opportunity there. Otherwise (or more likely, in addition), some Twins farm prospects could be involved. Needless to say, all kinds of ideas are being kicked around surrounding this rumor. It should be a fun weekend to track this stuff, and it's not unlikely that this weekends rumors will lead to next week's trade. We'll stay on top of the best of the best with some thoughtful unpacking of the possibilities over at Twins Daily. So stay tuned, if you're feeling a little antsy. I know I am.

This weekend is the unofficial start of the Hot Stove Season, because this weekend the MLB General Managers are having their annual offseason meetings in Indian Wells, California. It's not the more hyped "Winter Meetings" that take place next month, but it's still 30 GMs and their assistants, all in the same place, and rumor-mongering galore. Irresponsible, glorious, rumor-mongering. Twins fans have more reason than most to pay attention. Terry Ryan indicated in his TwinsCentric interview that he intends to be aggressive early this offseason, just as he was last year. Also, it was at these meetings in 2003 that he laid the groundwork for arguably his greatest trade, swapping AJ Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. This year, he's not the only one looking to deal. There have been several reports of teams looking to make trades, and in the best possible twist, many have involved starting pitching. Let's roll through a few of them of special interest to Twins fans. The Devil Rays The Rays still are seeking a new their stadium, which means they're still hampered by payroll. Unfortunately some of their starting pitchers are getting a expensive. Even more eyebrow-raising: they are about to lose their center fielder to free agency, and don't have a great replacement. The names that have come up the most are: James Shields Shields has been #1 starter on the Rays, which means he was the anchor to the team with the best starting pitching ERA in the American League last year. He's a 200 IP horse who consistently posts a sub-4 ERA and a strikeout rate that suggests he won't decline any time soon. He'll cost $21M over the next two years, but if you subtract Span’s salary, that’ only about $11 million. There has (justly) been a TON of discussion about the Twins acquiring him, especially after it was reported the Twins inquired about him. Here are the details and discussion. Jeremy Hellickson He's not the pedigree of Shields, but he's no slouch either; he was good enough to win the AL Rookie of the Year in 2011. That also means he's still very cheap and will be under team control for the next four years. Nick wrote about the pros and cons of signing him, and it generated a lot of discussion about what fans could expect. Wade Davis Like a dozen other guys, he was covered in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook: Playing for a pitching-rich team like the Rays often means that a solid talent like Wade Davis is occasionally the odd man out of the rotation. A former Baseball America Top 100 Prospect, Davis’s spot was usurped by superior talent in Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore, pushing him to the bullpen. This was not necessarily a bad move as Davis, similar to the transition Glen Perkins made from starter to reliever, significantly ratcheted up his strikeout rate (from 15% as a starter to 31% as a reliever). His fastball missed a ton more bats and his breaking stuff (a curve and slider) were much more effective in small doses. The Rays have him signed through 2017 at a reasonable amount but his salary will begin to increase steadily. Tampa’s savvy front office will likely want to trade him this offseason while his value is at an all-time high. The Atlanta Braves The Braves are loaded with young pitching, and we previously talked about how their GM is focusing on finding an affordable center fielder. But yesterday, Dave O'Brien, the Braves beat writer, tweeted that the Braves were also sniffing around Josh Willingham. There are at least 8 young pitchers the Braves could offer, ranging from nearly worthless to likely untouchable. We walked through them in this discussion, along with who is likely and not likely with Braves writer Ben Chase. If you're looking for a name or two to tuck away, try these: Randall Delgado and Mike Minor. The Arizona Diamondbacks The GM Meetings produced a bit of a bombshell when it was revealed that the Arizona Diamondbacks would consider moving starting pitching prospect Trevor Bauer. Bauer was the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft, and thrived in his first full year, striking out 157 in 120 innings between AA and AAA. He may be a little strong-willed, and he certainly isn't a fan of President Obama, but his talent is undeniable. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks biggest needs are in their infield, but they did just trade away their center fielder. Currently the plan is to rely on a couple of youngsters to hold down that spot, but there is certainly an opportunity there. Otherwise (or more likely, in addition), some Twins farm prospects could be involved. Needless to say, all kinds of ideas are being kicked around surrounding this rumor. It should be a fun weekend to track this stuff, and it's not unlikely that this weekends rumors will lead to next week's trade. We'll stay on top of the best of the best with some thoughtful unpacking of the possibilities over at Twins Daily. So stay tuned, if you're feeling a little antsy. I know I am.

First, thanks Dave for starting this. You beat me to it by quite a bit. Second, anyone know any DBacks fans (or writers or communities) that they can send a link of this thread to and get some responses from the otehr side? Time for the meat: Hicks is likely not enough, but I wouldn't be shocked if he could be a central part of the package, and I wonder how Twins fans feel about that. The DBacks are seeminly looking for infield help, but with Chris Young gone I can't believe (public protestations not withstanding) that they have that much faith in Eaton or Pollock to be a long-term answer in center field. Hicks is the whole package and close to ready and could be the answer there for a long time. So how would we feel about a deal that involves Hicks and maybe another guy or so that isn't in the top 7: Kepler, some of the new relief arms, Wimmers, that slugger in Beloit that came back from the suspension...somoene like that?

Really good insight on David O'Brien, Ben. Thanks. And it's great that you are able to respond to some of these questions. It's worth noting on similar threads. It might pay when there is a thread involving another team that we reach out to any fans/writers of that team with a link to give their thoughts.