John Bonnes

One way I could see Hunter returning...if they trade away Willingham.

[video=youtube;IwDMFC1EK0g] Aaron & John are joined by Dana, Heather & Chris to discuss Starter jackets, anti-semitism & World Series odds.

[video=youtube;IwDMFC1EK0g] Aaron & John are joined by Dana, Heather & Chris to discuss Starter jackets, anti-semitism & World Series odds.

This weekend is the unofficial start of the Hot Stove Season, because this weekend the MLB General Managers are having their annual offseason meetings in Indian Wells, California. It's not the more hyped "Winter Meetings" that take place next month, but it's still 30 GMs and their assistants, all in the same place, and rumor-mongering galore. Irresponsible, glorious, rumor-mongering. Twins fans have more reason than most to pay attention. Terry Ryan indicated in his TwinsCentric interview that he intends to be aggressive early this offseason, just as he was last year. Also, it was at these meetings in 2003 that he laid the groundwork for arguably his greatest trade, swapping AJ Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. This year, he's not the only one looking to deal. There have been several reports of teams looking to make trades, and in the best possible twist, many have involved starting pitching. Let's roll through a few of them of special interest to Twins fans. The Devil Rays The Rays still are seeking a new their stadium, which means they're still hampered by payroll. Unfortunately some of their starting pitchers are getting a expensive. Even more eyebrow-raising: they are about to lose their center fielder to free agency, and don't have a great replacement. The names that have come up the most are: James Shields Shields has been #1 starter on the Rays, which means he was the anchor to the team with the best starting pitching ERA in the American League last year. He's a 200 IP horse who consistently posts a sub-4 ERA and a strikeout rate that suggests he won't decline any time soon. He'll cost $21M over the next two years, but if you subtract Span’s salary, that’ only about $11 million. There has (justly) been a TON of discussion about the Twins acquiring him, especially after it was reported the Twins inquired about him. Here are the details and discussion. Jeremy Hellickson He's not the pedigree of Shields, but he's no slouch either; he was good enough to win the AL Rookie of the Year in 2011. That also means he's still very cheap and will be under team control for the next four years. Nick wrote about the pros and cons of signing him, and it generated a lot of discussion about what fans could expect. Wade Davis Like a dozen other guys, he was covered in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook: Playing for a pitching-rich team like the Rays often means that a solid talent like Wade Davis is occasionally the odd man out of the rotation. A former Baseball America Top 100 Prospect, Davis’s spot was usurped by superior talent in Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore, pushing him to the bullpen. This was not necessarily a bad move as Davis, similar to the transition Glen Perkins made from starter to reliever, significantly ratcheted up his strikeout rate (from 15% as a starter to 31% as a reliever). His fastball missed a ton more bats and his breaking stuff (a curve and slider) were much more effective in small doses. The Rays have him signed through 2017 at a reasonable amount but his salary will begin to increase steadily. Tampa’s savvy front office will likely want to trade him this offseason while his value is at an all-time high. The Atlanta Braves The Braves are loaded with young pitching, and we previously talked about how their GM is focusing on finding an affordable center fielder. But yesterday, Dave O'Brien, the Braves beat writer, tweeted that the Braves were also sniffing around Josh Willingham. There are at least 8 young pitchers the Braves could offer, ranging from nearly worthless to likely untouchable. We walked through them in this discussion, along with who is likely and not likely with Braves writer Ben Chase. If you're looking for a name or two to tuck away, try these: Randall Delgado and Mike Minor. The Arizona Diamondbacks The GM Meetings produced a bit of a bombshell when it was revealed that the Arizona Diamondbacks would consider moving starting pitching prospect Trevor Bauer. Bauer was the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft, and thrived in his first full year, striking out 157 in 120 innings between AA and AAA. He may be a little strong-willed, and he certainly isn't a fan of President Obama, but his talent is undeniable. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks biggest needs are in their infield, but they did just trade away their center fielder. Currently the plan is to rely on a couple of youngsters to hold down that spot, but there is certainly an opportunity there. Otherwise (or more likely, in addition), some Twins farm prospects could be involved. Needless to say, all kinds of ideas are being kicked around surrounding this rumor. It should be a fun weekend to track this stuff, and it's not unlikely that this weekends rumors will lead to next week's trade. We'll stay on top of the best of the best with some thoughtful unpacking of the possibilities over at Twins Daily. So stay tuned, if you're feeling a little antsy. I know I am.

This weekend is the unofficial start of the Hot Stove Season, because this weekend the MLB General Managers are having their annual offseason meetings in Indian Wells, California. It's not the more hyped "Winter Meetings" that take place next month, but it's still 30 GMs and their assistants, all in the same place, and rumor-mongering galore. Irresponsible, glorious, rumor-mongering. Twins fans have more reason than most to pay attention. Terry Ryan indicated in his TwinsCentric interview that he intends to be aggressive early this offseason, just as he was last year. Also, it was at these meetings in 2003 that he laid the groundwork for arguably his greatest trade, swapping AJ Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. This year, he's not the only one looking to deal. There have been several reports of teams looking to make trades, and in the best possible twist, many have involved starting pitching. Let's roll through a few of them of special interest to Twins fans. The Devil Rays The Rays still are seeking a new their stadium, which means they're still hampered by payroll. Unfortunately some of their starting pitchers are getting a expensive. Even more eyebrow-raising: they are about to lose their center fielder to free agency, and don't have a great replacement. The names that have come up the most are: James Shields Shields has been #1 starter on the Rays, which means he was the anchor to the team with the best starting pitching ERA in the American League last year. He's a 200 IP horse who consistently posts a sub-4 ERA and a strikeout rate that suggests he won't decline any time soon. He'll cost $21M over the next two years, but if you subtract Span’s salary, that’ only about $11 million. There has (justly) been a TON of discussion about the Twins acquiring him, especially after it was reported the Twins inquired about him. Here are the details and discussion. Jeremy Hellickson He's not the pedigree of Shields, but he's no slouch either; he was good enough to win the AL Rookie of the Year in 2011. That also means he's still very cheap and will be under team control for the next four years. Nick wrote about the pros and cons of signing him, and it generated a lot of discussion about what fans could expect. Wade Davis Like a dozen other guys, he was covered in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook: Playing for a pitching-rich team like the Rays often means that a solid talent like Wade Davis is occasionally the odd man out of the rotation. A former Baseball America Top 100 Prospect, Davis’s spot was usurped by superior talent in Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore, pushing him to the bullpen. This was not necessarily a bad move as Davis, similar to the transition Glen Perkins made from starter to reliever, significantly ratcheted up his strikeout rate (from 15% as a starter to 31% as a reliever). His fastball missed a ton more bats and his breaking stuff (a curve and slider) were much more effective in small doses. The Rays have him signed through 2017 at a reasonable amount but his salary will begin to increase steadily. Tampa’s savvy front office will likely want to trade him this offseason while his value is at an all-time high. The Atlanta Braves The Braves are loaded with young pitching, and we previously talked about how their GM is focusing on finding an affordable center fielder. But yesterday, Dave O'Brien, the Braves beat writer, tweeted that the Braves were also sniffing around Josh Willingham. There are at least 8 young pitchers the Braves could offer, ranging from nearly worthless to likely untouchable. We walked through them in this discussion, along with who is likely and not likely with Braves writer Ben Chase. If you're looking for a name or two to tuck away, try these: Randall Delgado and Mike Minor. The Arizona Diamondbacks The GM Meetings produced a bit of a bombshell when it was revealed that the Arizona Diamondbacks would consider moving starting pitching prospect Trevor Bauer. Bauer was the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft, and thrived in his first full year, striking out 157 in 120 innings between AA and AAA. He may be a little strong-willed, and he certainly isn't a fan of President Obama, but his talent is undeniable. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks biggest needs are in their infield, but they did just trade away their center fielder. Currently the plan is to rely on a couple of youngsters to hold down that spot, but there is certainly an opportunity there. Otherwise (or more likely, in addition), some Twins farm prospects could be involved. Needless to say, all kinds of ideas are being kicked around surrounding this rumor. It should be a fun weekend to track this stuff, and it's not unlikely that this weekends rumors will lead to next week's trade. We'll stay on top of the best of the best with some thoughtful unpacking of the possibilities over at Twins Daily. So stay tuned, if you're feeling a little antsy. I know I am.

Re: Arcia - I can see both sides. I wonder what he's doing this winter, and if that will play into the decision. If you read the interview with Terry Ryan, he sure seemed to suggest that they feel like they've moved him up pretty fast recently and seemed to be wondering if starting him at AAA was moving him too fast. One thing that might play into the decision is that there isn't necessarily a good reason to move him up there if he's going to need to sit there waiting all season. There is already a logjam, though I hope that will be cleared with a trade this offsesason. But I suspect they think Hicks is next in line, and then Arcia. That's not necessarily a reason to not promote him to AAA, but it does relax the urgency of moving him up the ladder.

These are fair points, and you could probably take them a step further by looking at Dozier's career numbers. But I'll also give Dozier this - I think they Twins handled him last year about as poorly as they could, and it sure seems like a lot of that was driven by Gardenhire's mancrush on him.

I don't have any inside information on this, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Arcia start the year in AA and I think Berrios will not be in a full season league next year - at least not to start the season.

I've never hunted (though I would like to) but I used to fish a lot as a teenager with my grandpa, so I know what you mean about having a lot of time to think quietly. In response to your topics... 1. I BET you're thinking about that. My only advice: marriage is the foundation and the kids are the house. Don't ever risk the foundation for the house. You will be tempted. 2. Well, of course. Kudos for admitting it. 3. Don't worry too much about Mauer's money. The Twins can build a good contending team on the remaining $70M, especially if they get to starts with a catcher that can bat 3rd. 4. Do you bring a camera that has any kind of zoom? 5. I look forward to the next post.

We're approaching the time when a long-time Twins player is going to be traded away. It will likely be Denard Span. In our interview for the 2013 Offseason Handbook, Terry Ryan was careful, but stated the obvious. When talking about Chris Parmelee being a regular, Ryan admitted "We're going to try and fit [Chris Parmelee] in there somewhere, without tipping my hand too far." Fitting Parmelee into the lineup as a regular means playing him at first base or in right field. That means moving one of four regulars: Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Ben Revere or Span. It's likely none are off the table, but Span is the most likely to be moved, not for any one reason, but for lots of little reasons, some of which are contradictory. He's valuable. Center fielders that can get on base, have a little power, occasionally steal and play above average center field don't grow on trees. There is a reason that Span's name has been bandied about by the Nationals and Red at the trade deadline the last two years: he's a commodity. In fact, for those attached to the more advanced sabrmetric stats, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) pegged Span as the most valuable Minnesota Twin last year - above Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham. He's replaceable. The Twins find themselves desperately short of pitching and middle infielders from the majors down through the minors. But this organization can sure develop center fielders. Twins fans know that Revere could step into center field for Span right now and probably improve the defense. And one-level below him is toolsy first round pick Aaron Hicks, who is going to be better defensively than either of them, and probably better offensively, too. And Twins fans have also already been introduced to Joe Benson, who can also hold down the position. He's becoming expensive. Span will make over $10M over the next two years of his contract. The Twins have limited funds after two straight years of declining attendance. That is $10M that could (and probably should) be used on pitching. He's not that expensive. There are going to be several free agent center fielders available this year - BJ Upton, Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, Shane Victorino - but they're all going to cost a pretty penny. A 2 year/$10M commitment to Span is going to look like a bargain comparatively. There will be openings. While the free agents above will be snapped up by the highest bidder, their former teams are going to be looking for replacements. The Rays are going to lose Upton and don't have a great replacement for him; they also have been heavily rumored to be shopping some of their better pitchers, like James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson. Similarly, the Braves will likely lose Michael Bourn and they also have few centerfielders in their farm system. In our 2013 Offseason Handbook, there’s a whole essay on why it makes sense to trade with the Brave by Ben Chase. In it, he lays out the assets the Braves would consider trading, in order: "The Braves would probably trade their eight starters in the following order (most likely to least likely): Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Paul Maholm, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Tim Hudson, and Kris Medlen. They've also got Brandon Beachy coming back midseason from Tommy John surgery and Sean Gilmartin knocking on the door in AAA." Chase admits the last half of that list is off the table for Span, but several of the first couple names are in play, and each would provide an affordable upgrade to the Twins rotation. Usually, when fans suggest a player should be traded, it's because they don't like him. Span, on the other hand, is well-regarded and maybe even undervalued. But a combination of traits - value, affordability, replacability and opportunity - make him the most likely player to be traded. And with the MLB General Manage meetings happening this weekend, it could happen sooner rather than later.

We're approaching the time when a long-time Twins player is going to be traded away. It will likely be Denard Span. In our interview for the 2013 Offseason Handbook, Terry Ryan was careful, but stated the obvious. When talking about Chris Parmelee being a regular, Ryan admitted "We're going to try and fit [Chris Parmelee] in there somewhere, without tipping my hand too far." Fitting Parmelee into the lineup as a regular means playing him at first base or in right field. That means moving one of four regulars: Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Ben Revere or Span. It's likely none are off the table, but Span is the most likely to be moved, not for any one reason, but for lots of little reasons, some of which are contradictory. He's valuable. Center fielders that can get on base, have a little power, occasionally steal and play above average center field don't grow on trees. There is a reason that Span's name has been bandied about by the Nationals and Red at the trade deadline the last two years: he's a commodity. In fact, for those attached to the more advanced sabrmetric stats, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) pegged Span as the most valuable Minnesota Twin last year - above Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham. He's replaceable. The Twins find themselves desperately short of pitching and middle infielders from the majors down through the minors. But this organization can sure develop center fielders. Twins fans know that Revere could step into center field for Span right now and probably improve the defense. And one-level below him is toolsy first round pick Aaron Hicks, who is going to be better defensively than either of them, and probably better offensively, too. And Twins fans have also already been introduced to Joe Benson, who can also hold down the position. He's becoming expensive. Span will make over $10M over the next two years of his contract. The Twins have limited funds after two straight years of declining attendance. That is $10M that could (and probably should) be used on pitching. He's not that expensive. There are going to be several free agent center fielders available this year - BJ Upton, Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, Shane Victorino - but they're all going to cost a pretty penny. A 2 year/$10M commitment to Span is going to look like a bargain comparatively. There will be openings. While the free agents above will be snapped up by the highest bidder, their former teams are going to be looking for replacements. The Rays are going to lose Upton and don't have a great replacement for him; they also have been heavily rumored to be shopping some of their better pitchers, like James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson. Similarly, the Braves will likely lose Michael Bourn and they also have few centerfielders in their farm system. In our 2013 Offseason Handbook, there’s a whole essay on why it makes sense to trade with the Brave by Ben Chase. In it, he lays out the assets the Braves would consider trading, in order: "The Braves would probably trade their eight starters in the following order (most likely to least likely): Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Paul Maholm, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Tim Hudson, and Kris Medlen. They've also got Brandon Beachy coming back midseason from Tommy John surgery and Sean Gilmartin knocking on the door in AAA." Chase admits the last half of that list is off the table for Span, but several of the first couple names are in play, and each would provide an affordable upgrade to the Twins rotation. Usually, when fans suggest a player should be traded, it's because they don't like him. Span, on the other hand, is well-regarded and maybe even undervalued. But a combination of traits - value, affordability, replacability and opportunity - make him the most likely player to be traded. And with the MLB General Manage meetings happening this weekend, it could happen sooner rather than later.

Aaron and John talk about John's interview with Terry Ryan in the Offseason Handbook, cover lots of minor moves, and argue a lot. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about John's interview with Terry Ryan in the Offseason Handbook, cover lots of minor moves, and argue a lot. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

In the TwinsCentric interview with Terry Ryan last week, (the 9-page entirety of which you can find in the 2013 Offseason Handbook), we asked about his confidence in Trevor Plouffe. If the Twins are looking for competition, they had one such candidate this year, but Sean Burroughs became a free agent. Burroughs was an interesting option because he hit left-handed, and the right-handed hitting Plouffe still has a big split (911 OPS vs LHs/ 691 OPS vs RHs) against the more plentiful side of the rubber. Looking at the Offseason Handbook, there are a few other fairly inexpensive options that might make sense. Eric Chavez put up very good numbers for the Yankees, but the left-handed hitting 34-year-old only had 33 at-bats against southpaws. It’s not clear how affordable he could be, but if he can’t get a job as a platoon player, a spot backing up an unproven guy like Plouffe could be a very nice option. Most of the other names one would recognize bat right-handed, but each has some other interesting traits. For instance, Brandon Inge used to play catcher. So instead of carrying Drew Butera as a 3rd catcher, Inge could fill in udring an emergency. He had shoulder surgery at the end of the season, but is expected to be recovered by spring training. Placido Polanco struggled this year, but he was also dealing with a back injury. In the past, the Twins have been rumored to be interested in him and the 37-year-old might be able to occasionally fill in at a middle infield spot. Meanwhile, another 37-year-old is rumored to be retiring, but the always intense Scott Rolen might be an interesting veteran to add to a clubhouse filled with kids. These aren’t going to be moves that transform the Twins, nor should any of them be used as an excuse to overlook bigger issues. But this might be something to watch late in the offseason, when leftover free agents are searching around, or whenever news of a six-year minor league free agents signing trickles out. Whoever the Twins sign will hopefully be nothing more than an insurance policy as Plouffe shows he belongs as a full-time starter. Or, like Sam Deduno and PJ Walters, that obscure signing could play a much bigger role than anyone anticipates this winter.

In the TwinsCentric interview with Terry Ryan last week, (the 9-page entirety of which you can find in the 2013 Offseason Handbook), we asked about his confidence in Trevor Plouffe. If the Twins are looking for competition, they had one such candidate this year, but Sean Burroughs became a free agent. Burroughs was an interesting option because he hit left-handed, and the right-handed hitting Plouffe still has a big split (911 OPS vs LHs/ 691 OPS vs RHs) against the more plentiful side of the rubber. Looking at the Offseason Handbook, there are a few other fairly inexpensive options that might make sense. Eric Chavez put up very good numbers for the Yankees, but the left-handed hitting 34-year-old only had 33 at-bats against southpaws. It’s not clear how affordable he could be, but if he can’t get a job as a platoon player, a spot backing up an unproven guy like Plouffe could be a very nice option. Most of the other names one would recognize bat right-handed, but each has some other interesting traits. For instance, Brandon Inge used to play catcher. So instead of carrying Drew Butera as a 3rd catcher, Inge could fill in udring an emergency. He had shoulder surgery at the end of the season, but is expected to be recovered by spring training. Placido Polanco struggled this year, but he was also dealing with a back injury. In the past, the Twins have been rumored to be interested in him and the 37-year-old might be able to occasionally fill in at a middle infield spot. Meanwhile, another 37-year-old is rumored to be retiring, but the always intense Scott Rolen might be an interesting veteran to add to a clubhouse filled with kids. These aren’t going to be moves that transform the Twins, nor should any of them be used as an excuse to overlook bigger issues. But this might be something to watch late in the offseason, when leftover free agents are searching around, or whenever news of a six-year minor league free agents signing trickles out. Whoever the Twins sign will hopefully be nothing more than an insurance policy as Plouffe shows he belongs as a full-time starter. Or, like Sam Deduno and PJ Walters, that obscure signing could play a much bigger role than anyone anticipates this winter.

Inge - I would love that idea IF he hit left-handed. That's a really good thought.

The Minnesota Twins add some coaches and drop some players. From Surly Darkness Days, Aaron and John review their beers against thrash metal, break down the changes, wonder what the new coaches mean, debate the relative value of Ron Gardenhire, recap their motorcycle adventure, review the players who have been droppped, collect on old debts, speculate on might fill the 40-man roster spots, wonder if Scott Baker will re-sign and tease the next podcast including an interview with Terry Ryan. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

The Minnesota Twins add some coaches and drop some players. From Surly Darkness Days, Aaron and John review their beers against thrash metal, break down the changes, wonder what the new coaches mean, debate the relative value of Ron Gardenhire, recap their motorcycle adventure, review the players who have been droppped, collect on old debts, speculate on might fill the 40-man roster spots, wonder if Scott Baker will re-sign and tease the next podcast including an interview with Terry Ryan. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

According to the Washington Post, the only legitimately good first baseman on the free agent market, Adam LaRoche, is in talks to re-sign with the Nationals. In the 2013 Offseason Handbook, I think the next best option we found was Carlos Lee, who slugged just .365 (and is 36 years old.) What’s more, there aren’t a lot of good options on the free agent market to move to first base. For instance, Kevin Youkilis is available at third base, but if he can play third base (and it looks like he can) he’ll be signed as a third baseman. The last couple of years, the market has not been so thin. Last year, of course, was epically good, with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder leading the charge. 2010 had Paul Konerko, but also Aubrey Huff, LaRoche, Carlos Pena and Lance Berkman. 2009 was thin, but 2008 had Mark Teixeira leading the class. It’s been years since we had a free agent first baseman sign for less than $6M, but that will almost certainly happen if LaRoche returns to the Nationals. This presents a unique opportunity to the Twins, if they choose to embrace it. In our 45-minute interview with Terry Ryan for the Offseason Handbook, he stated that 1B/OF Chris Parmelee will get every opportunity to play every day. While manager Ron Gardenhire says he’s satisfied with Parmelee’s defense in right field, the rest of the organization has shown no such endorsement. Indeed, in AAA-Rochester this year, he didn’t play a single game there. Moving incumbent Justin Morneau would not only make space for Parmelee, but free up $14 million to purchase starting pitching in a free agent market thick with it. Even if the Twins received nothing in return, that’s enough money to sign any starter except Zach Greinke. Ask yourself, would you trade Morneau for Jake Peavy, Dan Haren, or Anibal Sanchez? If you would, it makes sense to trade away Morneau for nothing more than a bag of bricks. Fortunately, for the Twins, that might not be necessary. There are not shortage of teams that struggled mightily at first base last year. SEVEN teams had an OPS lower less than 700 last year, and even the Rangers first basemen hit just .251/.301/.399. For a team struggling to fill major needs on a lower budget, the thin first base market is a godsend. If the Twins can find the will, there is almost certainly a way to bounce back quickly.