John Bonnes

For the latest rumors/news, check out the Official Day 1 Draft Thread. Here it is: everything you need to look like you’ve been eating and breathing MLB Draft (which starts at 6:00 tonight) for the last month, all in one quick story. The Bad News The Twins are drafting fourth in what is widely considered to be a draft with three great players. If those three go to the first three teams, the Twins will likely go one of two ways:[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Option 1 (seems most likely) They’ll draft a Texas high school pitcher with big upside named Kohl Stewart. He could be the best pitcher in the draft, but high school pitching can be risky and take several years to make it to the majors. OR…. Option 2 They’ll take a high school catcher named Reese McGuire who is ready defensively but will require time in the minors to become a major league hitter. If the Twins did this, it would be so they could save some money on the pick and use that money to “overdraft” later picks. That’s sort of the MLB equivalent of trading down in the draft. The Good News There are a lot of rumors flying around that one of the three teams above the Twins will NOT take one of the three best players. They would do so for the same reason that the Twins would do Option 2 – to save money for “overdrafting.” So, let’s explain that. Overdrafting There are three things you need to know about the MLB draft: 1) A lot of players who are eligible, but who don't get the bonus they think they should get, won't sign with a team, choosing to re-enter the draft in subsequent years. 2) Therefore, teams often don’t pick a lot of really good players if they don’t think they can sign them. 3) Teams can’t sign them because teams have a set amount they can pay players based on where they pick them. But that limit isn’t per player – it’s for their whole pool of players. This means that if the Twins saved money with their first pick, they can use their second pick on a player who was talented enough to go in the first round, but didn’t for whatever reason. Then they can offer him first-round money because they can offer the second-round money plus the money they saved. The Big Three The good news about overdrafting is that the explanation of it is now over. The really good news is that it means there is a decent chance that one of these three players could fall to the Twins. All project as difference-makers. Ace #1 - Mark Appel A college right-handed pitcher who has been on the radar for years – mostly because he was one of those guys last year who didn’t sign. He’s considered ace material and could be in the majors this year, though the Twins might want to be cautious about that given all the innings he racked up for Stanford. The biggest question about him is whether he might want more money than the #4 overall team can offer. (His agent is Scott Boras.) Ace #2 - Jonathan Gray A college right-handed pitcher who exploded on the scene this year with triple digit heat and a vicious slider. He’s also considered ace material though riskier than Appel because he has less of a track record. Also, it was revealed this week that he tested positive for Adderall, a stimulant. If things go well, he could be fronting a rotation by the end of next year. Slugger #1 – Kris Bryant A slugger who at one point this year had hit more home runs than 90% of Division 1 teams. Read those last words again. Bryant also didn’t have much of a track record before this year and scouts aren’t sure if his defense will be good enough to stay at 3rd base. But with that kind of power, who cares where he plays? He also could reach the majors soon, maybe arriving about the same time next year as Twins uber-prospect Miguel Sano, a slugger who might struggle to stay at 3rd base. It’s HERE! One way or the other, you’re going to have a reason to be excited Friday morning. Either the Twins are adding high-end pitching they desperately need, yet one more eye-popping bat - or a catcher plus more talent in later rounds. (OK, maybe you won't be excited no matter what they do.) But it should be an exciting day, so if you want to live and die with each pick, I’d recommend participating in the Official Day 1 Draft Thread. Enjoy.

In this experimental 17-minute podcast, Jeremy, Seth and John talk about Keith Law's Mock Draft which has Jonathan Gray falling to the Twins - and the Twins still selecting Kohl Stewart. They talk about whether the scenario has any merit, what the Twins would do and why the Twins might just pass on one of the "Big Three." You can listen to the experimental podcast here. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] We would really appreciate any feedback you have, both on the topic as well as the production. This is something we're playing with and we're looking to improve it. So please fill up that comment section! How is the sound? Which person sounds the best? How is the music? Did you have any problems with playing it? How was the interaction of the hosts? How would you like to see this used? What kind of podcast would you like to hear?

Who IS This Guy? Jonathan Gray is a right-handed college starting pitcher who has rocketed up the charts, becoming one of the two most coveted picks in the draft. Coming into the college season he was a decent but not remarkable prospect, but that was before posting 127 strikeouts (in 110 IP), a 9-2 record and a 1.55 ERA (pre-NCAA tournament). It was also before he unveiled improvements on two outstanding pitches.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The first is an “80” fastball that tops three digits on occasion, as it did last week (102 mph), striking out the last batter of a 129-pitch complete game in the NCAA regionals. Coming into the year, he had never shown that kind of velocity, but this year he worked between 94 and 97 all season. He also shows a “plus” slider that has also improved due to a tweak in the grip (running the middle finger down the right side of the horseshoe) that has increased the velocity and tightened the break. He has also shown a curveball and changeup, though both need to be further developed. Who Could He Be? He’s on track to be a #1 pitcher. But it’s been a short track. Gray might have the most upside of any pitcher in the draft, or at the very least the most of any of the college pitchers. Compared to the other top name, Mark Appel, Gray might have the higher ceiling but has less history on which to base that projection. How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field? The path the Twins took with Matt Garza, another first round pick, albeit 25th overall, provides a clue. Garza was fast-tracked through the system due to his success and the state of the Twins starting rotation. The best guess is… 2013 – Twins have him pitch in rookie league and maybe low A but are careful about piling much wear and tear on his arm (especially if his Oklahoma coach keeps throwing him out there for 129-pitch outings.) 2014 – High A and maybe AA. 2015 – AA or AAA with a possible late season call-up. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because… The most obvious reasoning used to criticize this pick would be to say that they got carried away with a player whose value was built on one-year’s performance and improvement. But, provided he signs, it would be hard to legitimately criticize, even if he doesn’t make it to the majors for some unforeseen reason. Knowing what we know, he’s the complete package and fits an area of extreme need in the organization. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because… Well, they probably got lucky, because for most of the last two months Gray wasn’t supposed to be available at #4. However, in Keith Law’s latest mock draft, he had Gray falling into their laps – and then the Twins passed on him for high school pitching prospect Kohl Stewart. Though the Twins are clearly enamored with Stewart, Gray has similar (if not more) upside without the risks associated of drafting a high school pitcher. Oh – and he’s likely to arrive in the majors sooner. More than any other player in the draft, Gray might be the perfect choice for the Twins. --- Check out the other Twins Daily MLB Draft Player Profiles or follow the latest national mock drafts in our forum: Monday, May 20-- Sean Manaea, SP Tuesday, May 21-- Austin Meadows, OF Wednesday, May 22-- Trey Ball, OF Thursday, May 23-- Ryan Stanek, RHP Friday, May 24-- Clint Frazier, OF Tuesday, May 28-- Reese McGuire, C Wednesday, May 29—Braden Shipley, RHP Thursday, May 30 -- Kohl Stewart, RHP Friday, May 31 – Kris Bryant, 3B/1B For MLB Draft Day Coverage, make sure you follow @TwinsDaily on Twitter!

On the #1 Minnesota Twins podcast, Aaron and John talk about the Twins resurgence and other reasons for optimism, the latest developments regarding the Twins #4 overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, John's musical instrument of choice, whether Pedro Florimon is for real, answer questions from readers, wonder what moves the Twins might make, discuss Mike Pelfrey's future, the 2015 lineup and Aaron's feature in the Star-Tribune. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. Or, just click on the link below:

The Minnesota Twins won last night, swiping (and sweeping) the season series from the Milwaukee Brewers. The victory raised their record to 23-28 which translates to a 73 win pace over the course of a 162-game season. But I want to talk about a different type of swiping that happened, or more accurately, did not happen. In the bottom of the sixth inning, Aaron Hicks was caught trying to steal second base. What struck me as strange at the time was that there were runners on the corners and one out. It seemed like a stupid decision to attempt that at the time, as it can short-circuit a good scoring opportunity. However, one always looks stupid when one is caught. So I wondered, was it as risky as it seemed? It turns out – I studied this exact situation last year on 5/11, only it was Denard Span that was thrown out. Here’s how that went: Tonight, though, I want to take it a step further. How does it compare to other situations in which one might try to steal a base? There are 12 situations where a runner might try to steal a base without coordination with the other runner. Here they are: Runner on 1st, 0 outs Runner on 1st, one out Runner on 1st, 2 outs Runner on 2nd, 0 outs Runner on 2nd, 1 out Runner on 2nd, 2 outs Runners on corners, 0 out Runners on the corners, 1 out Runners on corners, 2 outs Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 0 outs Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 1 out Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 2 outs And here they are again, ranked by just how risky they are. The percentage indicates how often one needs to succeed for it to be a good decision. 92.51% - Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 2 outs 91.10% - Runner on 2nd, 2 outs 79.67% - Runner on 2nd, 0 outs 77.69% - Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 0 outs 77.25% - Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 1 out 75.31% - Runner on 2nd, 1 out 74.74% - Runners on corners, 2 outs 71.39% - Runners on the corners, 1 out 70.73% - Runners on corners, 0 out 65.20% - Runner on 1st, 0 outs 63.41% - Runner on 1st, one out 60.06% - Runner on 1st, 2 outs So it wasn’t patently stupid, like trying to steal 3rd when you’re already in scoring position. But it was the 2nd riskiest situation in which to try to steal 2nd base. The only thing that would have been worse was if it could have ended the inning.

Who IS This Guy? Reese McGuire is a left-handed hitting high school catcher that is ready for the majors defensively, but will need several years to develop similar offensive skills. He has been projected to go anywhere in the draft from among the top five to 20th overall. The Minnesota Twins have been linked to him by Jim Callis of Baseball America and are definitely interested. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Besides McGuire’s skill set, he is intriguing for another reason: by signing him at a below-slot level value, the Twins could bank that leftover money for more aggressive (and expensive) draft choices later in the draft. Who Could He Be? His floor would be Drew Butera – a poor-hitting but defensively superior backup catcher. McGuire’s “pop” time – the amount of time it takes for him to receive a throw and get it to second base – is already at a major league level. Offensively, he is not nearly as developed but he projects to have some left-handed power (10-15 HR) and in this video Keith Law thinks he can hit .270 or .280 in the majors. Those stats line him up to be something like AJ Pierzynski only with Yadier Molina’s glove. That's a very valuable player. How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field? The last first round catcher the Twins drafted moved up in two-and-a-half years – but that was Joe Mauer. Four years is a much more realistic timetable, so he would debut in 2017, when Mauer is 34 years old, and a year before Mauer’s contract expires. If the Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because... If the Twins draft McGuire they are likely going to be widely criticized, some of which will be fair and some not. The widely held sense is that the Twins need to add pitching, that they are too enamored with defensive catchers and that they are unwilling to spend money. Drafting McGuire would reinforce these perceptions. But beyond the public relations problem this would cause, there are some real concerns. They will have passed on three college-age arms – Braden Shipley, Ryne Stanek and Sean Manaea - each of which could help alleviate a desperate need in the organization. They would also then have passed on a high school pitcher with as much upside as any arm in the draft – Kohl Stewart – and several other high-upside talents. Finally, high school catchers are inherently very risky draft picks. In last night’s Gleeman And The Geek podcast, Jeremy Nygaard listed the high school catchers drafted in the first round since Mauer in 2001. The only one who has made any kind of mark is Neil Walker – and he had to move from catcher. If the Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because... The Twins are in the unpleasant position of drafting fourth in what is widely considered to be a three-player draft. In any other sport, the wise strategy would be to move down in the draft, but MLB draft picks can’t be traded. However, if they sign McGuire for #7 money instead of someone else for #4 money, they can use the money they saved for “overdrafting” in later rounds, essentially adding two first round picks. For instance, if the Twins draft McGuire and sign him for #7 money, they would have an extra $1.3M to add to their budget for their 2nd round (43rd overall) pick, which is slotted at $1.3M. So they would have $2.6M to offer to the player they chose, who will be the 34th player chosen, which is as much as the 14th overall pick. That’s important in the MLB draft, because players drafted in high school or as juniors in college don’t need to sign. For instance, Manaea’s stock has been dropping as he has dealt with injuries. Once he falls into the second round, he’s unlikely to sign with whoever drafts him and teams know this, so he just keeps dropping. But the Twins could grab him there, offer him close to the money he originally thought he might get and end up with (essentially) two first round picks. Or, if the Twins feel like the value in this draft is in later rounds, they could use similar tactics in rounds three through ten. That’s the best case scenario, but the Twins would be taking a big risk that a player like Manaea falls to them and is willing to sign. This also requires a lot of preparation – you don’t want to draft a player if you’re not SURE he'll sign. MLB Draft Player Profiles: Monday, May 20-- Sean Manaea, SP Tuesday, May 21-- Austin Meadows, OF Wednesday, May 22-- Trey Ball, OF Thursday, May 23-- Ryan Stanek, RHP Friday, May 24—Clint Frazier, OF For MLB Draft Day Coverage, make sure you follow @TwinsDaily on Twitter!

On the best Minnesota Twins podcast, Aaron and John talk about the Twins' free fall, options for the No. 4 pick in the draft with Twins Daily's Jeremy Nygaard, a ton of roster changes including losing Joe Benson, sending down Oswaldo Arcia, not calling up Kyle Gibson, what happened to Justin Morneau's power, Chris Parmelee in center field, leveraging Glen Perkins, a WHOLE lot more about the draft and meeting listeners at the Apple Store. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Or, just click on the link below:

Jim Mandalaro of the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle tweeted today that PJ Walters told Mandalaro that Walters will be promoted to the Minnesota Twins and start a game this weekend. This solves the mystery of who will be taking Vance Worley's spot in the starting rotation and puts to rest speculation that prospect Kyle Gibson will be making his major league debut in the immediate future. How the Twins will juggle their 25-man and 40-man roster to make space for Walters is still unknown. Walters joined the Twins prior to the 2012 season as a minor league free agent, but was called up in May as the Twins rotation was besieged by injuries. He started the year with four quality starts but faded badly in June and was eventually placed on the disabled list with shoulder soreness. He returned to the majors in September with mostly poor results, ending the year with a 5.69 ERA. He was dropped from the 40-man roster this offseason. The 28-year-old has reestablished himself this year in Rochester. In nine starts, he has posted a 3.31 ERA with 46K in 54.1 IP and 16BB. Maybe most critically, he has given up only 2 home runs, which has been his Achilles Heel in the major leagues. Last year, he gave up 12 home runs in just 61.2 IP. The Twins will need to make room for Walters both on the 25-man roster and on the 40-man roster before his start. Since the Twins shorted themselves a starting pitcher this week, finding room on the 25-man roster will mean demoting a relief pitcher or carrying 13 pitchers and demoting a position player. There are several likely candidates but no obvious choice. In addition, the Twins will need to find room on the 40-man roster. Seth listed seven candidates in a story earlier today. In each case, it's possible that the Twins could lose that player from the organization.

Numbers are so clean. Until they aren’t. Yesterday we studied strikeouts/game and runs/game for teams and found a “correlation coefficient,” which is a number between -1 and 1. 1 means there is a perfect correlation, like the temperature in Fahrenheit and the temperature in Celsius. -1 means there is a perfectly negative correlation, like the amount I spend and my checking account balance. And 0 means there is no correlation, like the amount I spend and the temperature in Celsius. Unfortunately, the number we found was not 1, 0 or -1. It was .54. So what does that mean?[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It means it is somewhere in between. Our number shows that strikeouts aren’t everything, but it also shows that they’re something. Can we find something comparable? We can if we look at a different set of correlations. The most obvious place to start is in another realm of baseball – hitting. If we do the same exercise – compare the runs per game a team scores to their basic stats for 150 recent teams, what kind of correlations do we see? (The full results are at the bottom. Also, here is a link to the data.) The strongest is what you might expect – OPS, which has a .96(!) correlation. In fact, it is this crazy high correlation that drives the interest in OPS. The stats which make up OPS – OBP and SLG – also have high correlations: .87 and .92, respectively. The most widely used traditional stats for evaluating offense fall a little lower down the list. Batting average is .76. Home runs are .70. I even worked out HR/AB and HR/PA and they ranked a little lower: .67 and .65. We still haven’t found the stats that have a correlation close to the .54 that K/9 has to runs given up by a pitching staff. The stats closest to that level are at-bats, walks and doubles, each of which has a correlation around .60. Converting the last one to a rate statistic, I find that doubles/at-bat has a correlation of .547, which is almost dead on. So we might want to evaluate pitchers by strikeouts about the same way we evaluate batters by doubles. For instance, given a choice between two players, one who hits a lot of doubles, and one who doesn’t, we probably want the guy with the doubles. We also might mention how many doubles a player has as a data point to demonstrate that they have extra power. Doubles are far from a worthless item to track. But here is probably what we wouldn’t do. We wouldn’t say a free agent is worthless because he was one of the worst at his position in doubles. We probably wouldn’t comb through an organization’s minor league affiliates and suggest that their hitting philosophy is messed up because none of their teams are hitting a lot of doubles. And we wouldn’t suggest that a team scoring lots of runs won’t be able to maintain its pace because it ranks dead last in the league in doubles. Yet we do all of that when talking about strikeouts and pitching. The bottom line is that there isn’t a real clean break point here. Strikeouts are important. They might even be the most important stat we can easily evaluate for pitchers, due to a combination of impact and predictability (though we haven’t studied the latter). But it is exceptionally easy to get carried away with strikeouts, and I think most of the sabrmetric community has, including me. It may be time to step back and admit what we don’t know. And acknowledge that clean numbers aren’t always so clean. ~~~ Below is a complete list of the correlations we have found, both for hitting and for pitching. The hitting ones are compared to runs scored per game, while the pitching ones are compared to the runs given up per game. ~~~