John Bonnes

Aaron and John talk about the Minnesota Twins' options at the trade deadline, Miguel Sano's benching at Double-A, Justin Morneau's place in team history, what to make of Samuel Deduno (again), Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia going in opposite directions, the light rail pub crawl/Twins game on September 14, Joe Mauer's paternity leave, and answering mailbag questions from listeners. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Let’s start with this: I don’t care if Aaron Hicks slid or not – Joe Vavra blew the call to send him last night in the fourth inning. This is not debatable. I doubt Vavra would debate it. And even had Hicks slipped into some shiny leather and slid like Kate Beckinsale in Underworld, he was still going to be out. It was not close. It was Vavra's mistake that the announcers should have been talking about. Here was the situation. The Twins lead 2-1 in the top of the fourth inning. Hicks was on second base, which he had easily stolen. Leadoff hitter Brian Dozier was up to bat with one out. He hit a line drive to left field. It appears Hicks got a slow start but was waved home the whole way by third base coach Vavra. It was not close, the throw reached the catcher on a bounce and Hicks was out by several feet. He tried to dipsy-doo around the catcher, looked silly, and was criticized by announcer Roy Smalley for not sliding. And he deserved that. But the the more significant message was delivered by play-by-play announcer Dick Bremer who announced that Hicks was being sent home with (what I would call) surprise in his voice. Because Hicks never had much chance. Making outs is a cardinal sin for a third base coach. (Technically, I forget whether it’s a subset of “gluttony” or “greed”.) But in this case, the story is not to beat up Vavra about a bad call. It’s just to explain the philosophy a third base coach must have, and the math behind why he must have it. And maybe learn why Vavra could risk a little more on this play. The basic rule for a third base coach is if you think there’s a decent chance your runner can get thrown out, stop him. This can be shown mathematically, which I’ll demonstrate below, but it also just makes sense: the value of the extra base, even though it’s tied to a run, is nowhere near the cost of adding an out AND losing a baserunner at 3rd base. Sabrmetrics has provided a lot more precision, and it lends a little extra insight in this case. In this game, because the hitter can advance into scoring position on a throw to the plate, that rule is not quite as stringent. Sabrmetrics, for problems like this, uses something called Palmer and Thorn’s Run Expectancy Matrix. Pete Palmer and Roger Thorn studied 75 years worth of baseball games and found out the average number of runs that scored in basic situations. (By the way, they did this back in 1975.) You can find it here, but these are the relevant numbers: The average team with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out will score 1.088 runs in that inning. That’s what happens if Vavra holds up the “stop” sign. The average team with a runner on 2nd and two outs will score .348 runs in that inning. That’s what happens if Vavra waves Hicks home and he’s thrown out. The average team, with a runner on 2nd and one out will score .699 runs in that inning, PLUS they would have already scored a run, so that’s 1.699 runs. That’s what happens if Vavra waves Hicks home and he’s safe. So if Hicks is sent home and safe, the Twins gain about .6 runs. If he’s out, they lose .75 runs. It doesn’t take a math major (just a good algebra background) to see that Hicks needs to be safe about 55% of the time to break even. If Vavra felt it was a “coin flip” situation, sending Hicks is defendable. (It didn’t look like it was, but given Hicks speed, maybe he had additional confidence.) Now that’s just the base rule. It assumes that there are average hitters and average pitchers and average fielders, etc. In this case there were some extenuating circumstances. For starters, the next hitter was not average. In face, Doug Bernier didn’t have a major league hit and he's 32 years old. He might be more likely to strike out or to hit into a double play than an average hitter, so maybe sending the runner makes more sense. Of course, Joe Blanton is on the mound, and he hasn't been an average pitcher. He might be more likely to give up a couple more hits, so maybe it's a better idea not to send the runner. Finally, batting behind Bernier is Joe Mauer, who is a pretty good guy to have up in a clutch situation, which is probably the best reason to keep everyone from risking that extra out. So in this game, it’s hard to find extra incentive to risk that out. But the decision by Vavra to send Hicks by might not have been as egregiously wrong as it initially looked. (And certainly not as bad as it looked after Bernier’s double.) Third base coaches need to be pretty conservative in general, but as far as picking a moment to be aggressive, this was a pretty good choice.

Aaron and John talk about what to expect from the trade deadline, Scott Diamond's demise, John reviewing ballparks and beer from his West Coast vacation, criticizing an opposing manager for once, analyzing the Twins' defense, dating by way of pitching matchups, eating money to move Justin Morneau, what to buy from the Metrodome wreckage, golf vs. baseball and the notion of clutch, and time traveling to kill middle infielders.You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Buyers or Sellers They’re buyers. The Cardinals are one of three teams in the NL Central, along with the Pirates and Reds, who have the three best records in the National League. Each seems assured of a playoff spot. However, only one of them is assured of a playoff series, and that’s the division winner. The other two will be subjected to the wild card playoff game, which could result in a quick ending to a promising season. So the Cardinals have plenty of incentive to figure out a way to separate themselves from that pack. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] What They Need Almost all of the Cardinals rumors indicate they're looking for starting pitching or bullpen help. It’s not totally clear why – their team ERA is 3.33, which is good for 3rd overall in MLB. And starting pitcher (and former Cy Young award winner) Chris Carpenter is supposed to be back at the end of the month. That might be the starting pitching they need to acquire. They could be interested in a left-handed reliever. They have 37-year-old Randy Choate, but he’s almost the penultimate LOOGY (Lefty One Out Guy). In fact, he just set a record for the most consecutive appearances without pitching a full inning. It’s conceivable the Cardinals might want someone with a little more flexibility. They seem set at closer with Edward Mujica doing the job now and Trevor Rosenthal waiting in the wings if Mujica leaves as a free agent this offseason. Finally, the Cardinals have had some problems at third base, but 30-year-old David Freese seems to have recovered from a sore thumb and is back to hitting. He’s still only at a .273 BA and a 736 OPS, but he’s trending in the right direction. Jon Jay in center field has cooled quite a bit, but the Twins don’t have a right-handed center fielder to offer in a platoon, other than Hicks. What Might Work General Manager John Mozeliak says he’s not going to trade away any top prospects like outfielder Oscar Taveras or pitcher Michael Wacha and really, why would he? His team doesn’t have a glaring weakness. The best bet is something strategic, like Brian Duensing for a lower level prospect. Sleeper Targets The good news is that in Keith Law’s most recent farm system rankings, the Cardinals were #1 overall – the only organization above the Twins. But there are also some non-prospects that are interesting. Seth Maness –RHP – MLB – 24 years old Maness wasn’t a top 10 prospect, but was always recognized for his impeccable control; he walked 9 and struck out 83 last year in AA over 123.2 innings. He started this year in their AAA rotation but has been working out of their bullpen since. He won’t blow anyone away – 13K and 4BB in 27.7 IP, but has a career ERA in the minors of 2.80. He could be a solid back of the rotation innings eater. Tyrell Jenkins – RHP – High A – 20 years old If you’re more a fan of future potential and willing to accept some risk, Jenkins might be more your speed. The former football player has a 93-96 mph fastball but hasn’t shown he knows how to control it or how to develop an offspeed pitch. He’s a project, but a project with upside. Pete Kozma/Daniel Descalso – SS – MLB – 25/26 years old I’ll take whichever one they’re tired of. Kozma surprised late last year, but is hitting just .236 this year. Descalso may be stealing his job, but he’s just a year removed from hitting .227. Kozma will be a great defender, Descalso a great utility player. Neither will hit much, but I’ll take a flyer on either. Dream Target Matt Adams – 1B – MLB –24 years old If the Cardinals can’t find room for him at first base, the Twins sure can. Adams is blocked by Allen Craig, who is having a heck of a year - .324/.370/.491. But Adams has put up a 30+ home run year just two years ago in the minors, blistered AAA last year and is hitting .319 with a 953 OPS this year. I don’t know just what the Twins would need to do to pry him away, but he’d be a great addition, even if he does bat left-handed.

Aaron and John talk about falling out of love with this year's Twins team, Josh Willingham's frustrating injury situation, Aaron Hicks' return, cutting bait on P.J. Walters, Jared Burton and the bullpen imploding, Brian Dozier showing signs of life, John's motorcycle-related idiocy, million-dollar teenagers, and which of the seven former Twins who made the All-Star team were mistakes. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

The Minnesota Twins front office likely watched with interest yesterday as one of the bigger chips on the trade market was moved. The Marlins traded starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco to the Dodgers for three third-tier prospects and $200 grand in international signing money, and the Dodgers agreed to pay the $5+ million remaining on Nolasco's contract this year. Nolaso was perceived as one of the better pitchers on the trade market. The deal's details suggest some truths about the trade market this year: There Are A Lot Of Teams Looking For Pitching, And It Doesn't Need To Be High-End Pitching This is the second starting pitcher we're seen traded this week and neither of them is Matt Garza, the premier name. Often, teams will wait to trade a player like Nolasco until the bigger name has been traded, since then the remaining teams come looking for the next best pitcher. Instead, the Dodgers looked at Garza's asking price and got aggressive at the next level of pitching, just like the Orioles did earlier this week. That probably bodes well for a trade involving Kevin Correia, though there are still plenty of other pitchers between him and the top of the list, pitchers like Cliff Lee, Bud Norris, Yovanni Gallardo and maybe Kyle Lohse. Teams Want To Keep Their Prospects A fair number of GMs are coming out and saying publicly they will not trade away their blue chip prospects. Yesterday we talked about how the Orioles walked away from a deal for Garza for the 50th and 100th best prospects, neither of which would be considered blue chip. Today, that lesson is reinforced when you look at what the Dodgers gave up for the 2nd best option on the market. You will not find any of the three arms the Marlins received on a Top 100 list. In fact, you won't find them on the Marlins Top 10 prospect list. Or their Top 20. This past off-season all three would have been ranked by Baseball America between 21 and 25 for the Marlins system. Two of them have already been converted to relievers, so that's likely their ceiling. Teams are clinging, with a death-like grip, to their best prospects. International Signing Money Is A Thing We're seeing the inclusion of international signing money in a bunch of trades this month. Considering the Twins had the fourth most of any team going into this season, they might have some extra leverage. However, it isn't clear the Twins have much they can trade away. According to Jeremy Nygaard, The Twins had about $2M left over after their first few big signings. Then they wrapped up Ruar Verkerk from the Netherlands, which definitely cut into that, but we don't yet know how much. Also, they're rumored to be chasing a Taiwanese pitcher, Jen-Ho Tseng, along with some other teams. He ranks 29th overall, according to MLB.com. That will cost some money. There are other top international prospects that are still unsigned, so these additional dollars that teams are trading for might be the difference in getting some of these kids signed. It adds a new dimension to the trade market this year, and one could see the Twins trading away extra dollars, or trading for extra dollars if they can't pry away prospects. Then they could use that money to sign some high-end, albeit 16-year-old high-end, talent. It might also mean that teams are interested in making trades for those dollars now, since a lot of the highly ranked kids will be signed by late July, and teams won’t need the extra dollars. It may be driving the earlier trades we’re seeing this year. Real Money Is A Thing, Too The $5.5 million that Nolasco was owed for this year definitely decreased the prospect haul for the Marlins. That's good news for a team trying to trade Kevin Correia, who is relatively cheap. It's not very good news for a team interested in trading Justin Morneau, who has even more than that left on his deal this year. For instance, the Rockies were interested in Nolasco, but were never going to be in a position to pay that much this year. (Incidentally, Todd Helton is their regular first baseman. Yes, the same Todd Helton that was around when you were young. His OPS is 695.) As far as I know, the Twins have never done a trade where they pick up part of the contract of the player they traded away, but if ever there was a season to do so, this is it. We know they didn't spend all of their offseason money when Joe Saunders walked away from an open offer. The amount they can spend on the amateur draft and international draft is capped. And Morneau's salary is already included in this year's budget number anyway. Their budget doesn’t need that $5M. If swallowing the rest of that salary allows them to upgrade the prospects they get in a trade, they should be considering it. There are very few avenues for spending leftover money this year to upgrade the future. This is one of the few remaining.

Catcher Joe Mauer and closer Glen Perkins will represent the Minnesota Twins at this year's All-Star game on July 16th. Mauer was the top vote-getter among fans and will start at catcher for the American League. It will be his sixth time he'll have been named an All-Star. Perkins will be attending the event for the first time. Mauer entered Sunday with a .314 batting average, a .395 on-base percentage and an OPS of .864 while playing the most demanding position. By comparison, the average OPS for a catcher this year is .706 in MLB, while the average on-base percentage is .312. This is the 10th year of his major league career and he has received MVP votes in five of them, including winning the award in 2009. Perkins entered today with a miniscule 1.99 ERA and has saved 20 games for the Twins. His other statistics give a better idea of just how dominant he has been: He has allowed just 18 hits in 31.2 inning. The average reliever allows a little less than one per inning. He has struck out 44 while walking just 7, a ratio of 6:1. The average reliever has a ratio of about 2.5 to 1. His WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) is just .789. League-wide for relievers, that number is 1.29. Perkins converted to reliever in 2011 and was handed the job of closer - the relief pitcher whose main task is to hold a lead of three or fewer runs, generally, in the ninth inning - in the middle of last year. He has reportedly been coveted by several teams as the trade deadline approaches. The Twins have given no indication they plan on trading him.

Here's today's top three trade deadline stories of the last couple days and how it might impact the Minnesota Twins: #3 - The Reliever Market Ken Rosenthal breaks down the "supply" side of MLB relievers for the trade deadline - and the Twins are completely omitted. That's a little surprising considering the Twins' seller status and the presence of Glen Perkins on the roster, but maybe Terry Ryan's protests about the subject are actually being heard. But there could be some other candidates too. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Lost in the recent slumps of Jared Burton and Brian Duensing is that they were both probably the most tradeable commodities in the Twins bullpen. Burton, prior to his groin injury, had been fantastic - a true closer candidate for a contending team looking to solidify it's late-inning strategy. And Duensing would work well with any of number of teams that are short on left-handed relief help, such as the Nationals, who we profiled this week. #2 - Yankees Could Use Catching It was revealed that Yankees starting backstop to start the year, Francisco Cervelli, is being shut down for two weeks before beginning his rehab again. The bulk of New York's playing time at catcher this year has gone to Chris Davis, who is sporting a .614 OPS. His backup has been Austin Romine, who has an OPS of .331 in his 31 games. Yikes. Even Drew Butera would be an upgrade on that. And now I notice that Ryan Doumit, after playing catcher just once the week before, started at catcher two times in the four games of the Yankees series. I don't know if that was planned - you'll recall Joe Mauer was out of the lineup completely on Monday - but we'll see how much time Doumit gets behind the plate in Yankee Stadium if he winds up in Gotham. There is a real fit there. I wonder how Yankees manager (and former catcher) Joe Girardi will feel about Doumit's defense. I suppose one could also speculate about moving a $23 million contract off the books, if one so desired. #1 - The Price Of Garza (and Perkins?) By far, the most talked about and valuable player on the trade market right now is Cubs starting pitcher Matt Garza, and there is quite a bit of speculation that he might be moved soon, with several teams pursuing him. But one of those teams will not be the Orioles, because they traded for Scott Feldman earlier this week. Yesterday we learned why. The Cubs were asking for Jonathan Schoop, a 21-year-old shortstop in AAA who ranked #50 nationally in Keith Law's preseason prospect list and Eduardo Rodriguez, a 20-year-old starter who was just moved up to AA and was #100 on Law's preseason list. From their stats this year, it doesn't look like either one is due for any major moves on the prospect lists. By comparison, here are how the Twins ranked on Law's list last offseason: Miguel Sano - 11 (moved up to 6 in an midseason Top 25 update) Byron Buxton - 22 (moved up to 2 in a midseason Top 25 update) Kyle Gibson - 41 Aaron Hicks - 49 Oswlado Arcia - 59 Alex Meyer - 61 Eddie Rosario - 65 The best equivalant trade I can come up with in the Twins system would be Aaron Hicks and JO Berrios. So now we know what the ceiling is for acquiring top prospects in this trade market. This was the premier guy, a starter, on the market a month before the deadline, and it was turned down by the other team. And it still wasn't anywhere near a Top 20 prospect. If you're looking to speculate on what it would require to pry Glen Perkins away, keep this in mind.

Buyers or Sellers Everyone was excited about the Pirates last year when they led the NL Central as late as the middle of the July. That was a great story, but this feels completely different. This year the Pirates are 20 games over .500 and were the first team in MLB to win 50 games. Of course, last year they were sixteen games over .500 on August 1st – and STILL managed to finish below .500 for the 173rd consecutive year. So they’re buyers, but they don’t have a ton of needs. That might work out well, since they’re reportedly hesitant to give up too much of their farm system. Limited expectations work out well when considering a trade with the Twins. What They Need Offensively, like last year, the Pirates have been in the lower half of runs scored in the National League. Things have been particularly ugly in right field with a batting average of .227 and an OPS of 656. By ways of comparison, Twins second baseman Brian Dozier has a 684 OPS. So it would be nice if the Twins had a corner outfielder to offer, especially if he was a right-handed slugger to team up with left-handed hitting Pedro Alvarez. Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop taking prozac. There is also some thought that they could use starting pitching, because they aren’t sure if AJ Burnett (calf) and Wandy Rodriguez (forearm) will be returning soon from the DL. Also, starter James McDonald has been on the DL since mid-May with shoulder stiffness. What Might Work It’s going to have to be a small deal, probably involving a starting pitcher. But don’t expect it to be Kevin Correia – he was a Pirate last year and was demoted to the bullpen by them. I guess that leaves Mike Pelfrey, though I suppose they might be interested in a cheaper, younger option like Scott Diamond or Sam Deduno. After all, this is the team that turned around Francisco Liriano, who has a 2.23 ERA through 10 games. Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue. As for the outfielder, the other name that might have made sense is Ryan Doumit – except that he was also a Pirate and I doubt there’s more appetite there for him. The best fit I can come up with is sending them Trevor Plouffe and move him to right field. Sleeper Targets Tony Sanchez – C – AAA – 25 years old Sanchez wasn’t a top 10 Pirates prospect coming into the season, and he’ll be stuck in a backup role for the next couple year now that the Pirates signed Russell Martin. But he’s surprising everyone by slugging .536 in AAA this year (and from the right side, no less). Now THAT would be nice to pair with Mauer for a few years. Wyatt Mathisen – C – Low A – 19 years old The 2nd round pick in the 2012 draft, he’s struggling mightily right now in A ball. With the Twins seemingly focused on adding young catching in this year’s draft, why not pick up a second rounder? Jordy Mercer – SS – MLB – 25 years old Another somewhat promising guy who is stuck behind a veteran in Pittsburgh. He’s at best an average regular, but he’s an average regular with some pop in his bat. He slugged .411 overall in AAA and is getting better each year. Dream Target Glen Perkins is probably of limited interest: the prospect price is too high and their closer, Jason Grilli, may be going to the All-Star Game. If the Twins are going to make a big deal with the Pirates, it’ll need to involve Perkins and be part of a three-way trade. Tyler Glasnow – RHP – High A –19 years old You were probably expecting to see Jameson Taillon here, the right-handed starter who has been topping their prospect list for years and is now in AA. I purposely avoided him because the Bucs claim they don’t want to move any big names. Instead, I went down the list to a breakout player at High A who is looking even more impressive - and might be just as untouchable. Glasnow didn’t make the Pirates Top 10 list by Baseball America last year – but vaulted up to 5th in a recent update by Jim Callis. Posting 103 strikeouts in 70.1 innings will do that. He’s 6’ 7”, has a 93 mph fastball and shows a possibly above average curveball. And at just 19 years old, the sky’s the limit. Throughout July, we’ll be publishing a profile of a MLB and whether there is any possible fit for a trade with the Twins. For more, check out our previous trade talks: The Atlanta Braves by John Bonnes The Washington Nationals by John Bonnes The Philadelphia Phillies by Nick Nelson