John Bonnes

Wilkin Ramirez has had to demonstrate a lot of patience in his career. The 28-year-old finally made his way onto an Opening Day roster last year, only to have his season shortened by a concussion and ended by a broken tibia. But the Twins were patient too, re-signing him this offseason. Maybe he could surprise them again, like he did last spring training? Or maybe it shouldn't be a surprise any more. Surrounded by Twins prospects in the late innings of a tie game with the Orioles, Ramirez delivered the decisive blow: a three-run blast over left center in a staggering ninth inning. The kids surprised too, finishing with a 9-2 win after being handed a 1-2 deficit in the late innings from the starting lineup. "I didn't have to start managing until I got the starters out of here," joked manager Ron Gardenhire. "That's what I just told those guys. 'You guys are in here high-fiving, but we didn't do nothing until you guys got out of the game.'" That's not entirely true. Vance Worley started the game and got some good things done: specifically, he threw strikes. Determined to put a miserable 2013 behind his, he's come into camp completely healthy, lighter and with confidence in his arm slot, which is something he couldn't say last year. He threw two scoreless innings, although he was helped by an over-the-outfield-wall catch by Darin Mastroianni. Ron Gardenhire liked what he saw. "I liked what he did," said Gardenhire. "He had a good angle going down. He threw some really nice tight breaking balls that were down in the zone. Worked fast. Was throwing it over. They hit a couple of balls on him, but he went right at them." The teams traded runs in the fourth. Ramirez picked up the first of his four RBI on a single that drove in Chris Colabello (who had been walked for the second time). But the Orioles responded with their first run when Aaron Thompson misplayed a dribbler off the bat of Nelson Cruz that plated Nick Markakis. The Twins fell behind in the 6th inning. Trevor May had recorded four outs and Gardenhire liked what he saw, specifically the changeups May was throwing. Unfortunately, Orioles slugger Chris Davis, who hit 53 home runs last year, liked what he saw too. "I elevated one that [Davis] elevated right back," reflected May. The solo shot put the Twins into a 2-1 hole. It turned out OK - the pitching prospect was just setting the table for some of his minor league teammates. Infielders Danny Santana and James Bereford both played on the AA New Britain Rock Cats with May last year. In the eighth inning they worked together to tie the game when Beresford singled and Santana drove him home with a triple. That ended up being a precursor to the fireworks in the final frame. Top prospect Byron Buxton lit the fuse and nearly provided a memorable explosion. He hit a rocket line drive that cleared the center fielder's head and bounced (sigh) OVER the wall for a ground rule double. Had it not, fans might have seen a rare inside-the-park home run on a ball in which nobody stumbled or took a odd bounce. Buxton was rounding second base as it cleared over the wall. "I would have liked to have seen him running that thing out," mentioned Gardenhire. "After it bounced out, I was kid of disappointed." That feeling likely dissipated quickly. Buxton was driven in two batters later by prospect Max Kepler before Ramirez's rocket shot. With just 70 games of big league experience, Ramirez is looking to surprise people the same way he did last year coming out of spring training. "He's pretty sure of himself," says Gardenhire. "Confident, confident young man. He's healthy. He made my team last year doing the same thing and he knows what's at stake here, so he's coming out and ready to play." The kids continued to follow his lead, including Santana, whose locker was right next to Ramirez in the visiting clubhouse. Santana hit his second triple of the game later in the ninth, driving in two more runs. The speedy shortstop has left an impression with Gardenhire. "As I've told people, this guy's pretty exciting. He's got jets. I'm pretty confident when he walks up to the plate something is going to happen." Plenty happened today, even if Twins fans had to wait until the late innings for it. It's only fitting that it was Wilkin Ramirez leading the charge in a game in a game that required patience.

After reaching Detroit's AAA Toledo team as a 21-year-old, Hoffman spent his third full year with them last year as a 24-year-old. But the left-handed reliever's stats showed a change. Last year, Hoffman struck out 35 batters in 35 innings. He had never come close to that rate previously. He thinks he knows why. "The pitching coach, who is now the coordinator of Detroit, AJ Sager, told me I needed to learn to throw my slider for a strike," says Hoffman. You don't really think about using it as a strikeout pitch. He goes 'You need to be able to throw that 0-1, 0-0, 2-0, to keep hitters off balance.' "I took that to heart, went home and worked on throwing it as a strike. I would actually go out [in games] and throw 15 pitches and I'd throw 13 sliders. It was just keeping hitters more off balance than anything. You're a little more effective when you take that to heart, which you don't think about." Hitters figured out the change, so Hoffman further pivoted to keep them off balance. "You change it up," replied Hoffman. "You don't want them to get 'Oh, yeah, he's just going to throw sliders at you.' You're going to change it up. One outing is strictly fastballs. Or I'll throw it and pitch backwards to guys. It's one of those weird little things that you don't think about until they sit down and tell you." The results suggests that Hoffman may have turned a corner just prior to the Twins finding him. It wasn't a coincidence that he found the Twins, either. "[My agent] sat me down, and he has a top five list of where he would like us to go and a top five list of where we're willing to consider. And Minnesota was on there. And we had a couple of other teams, but all-in-all, the best opportunity was here to maybe get a call up." Hoffman and his agent looked at the Twins roster and saw plenty of left-handers, but most are young left-handed starters. I wonder if they considered that Scott Diamond might need to be in the bullpen if he doesn't make the rotation, since he's out of options. But while Hoffman isn't sure his choice will lead to a call-up, he feels like right now, he made a good decision. Because he's happy. "Don't tell my secret: it's been awesome. Whether I get called up or not, it's been an absolutely awesome experience for two weeks already."

In today's 6-3 loss to the Tampa Rays, the Twins pitchers didn't have a great day. Starting was Ricky Nolasco, whose prefix is already slowly turning from "Mr." into "Most Expensive Free Agent the Twins Ever Signed." (MEFATES?) Anyway, Mr. Nolasco threw two scoreless innings, but five of the seven opposing batters hit the ball hard. Fortunately, the last of those hard hits was right at first baseman Chris Colabello who turned a nifty double-play. I'm not saying there should be any concern. It's March 2nd. I'm just saying there is clearly work to do. The blast that hurt the most was given up by Anthony Swarzak to Evan Longoria. Longoria does stuff like that against all kinds of pitchers and nobody expects Swarzak to be immune. But Swarzak also gave up three other hits to guys not named Longoria, albeit all of them pretty good hitters. Swarzak isn't on anyone's list of concerns this year, due to some very effective pitching last year. But it's not like his strikeout rate spiked or a walk rate plummeted last year. He just gave up a lot fewer home runs and hits. Today, that formula didn't seem as comforting as yesterday. We also got to see the recently acquired left-hander Brooks Raley, who induced three efficient ground balls in his first inning and then watched several pitches get tattooed to left field in his second inning. Finally, we got to see top pitching prospect Alex Meyer's 95+ mph fastball up close. Unfortunately, the Rays batters were seeing it too. He gave up a run in each inning and four hits total, though he wasn't helped by his defense in the eighth inning. One could draw a comparison from this game to last year's pitching woes and a slew of other memorable six-run games, but that would be a little silly. This was just an early spring training game featuring a couple of big leaguers and a lot of minor leaguers and nobody should feel too bad about losing to the Rays in any case. So instead, let's call it a reminder that the Twins this year are likely going to go as far as their pitching will take them. To their credit, they showed they understood this with their offseason moves. But those moves still need to work. Twins Takes There was an interesting subplot in today's game. Versus Tampa Bay's young right-handed phenom Alex Cobb, manager Ron Gardenhire started Jason Kubel, Oswaldo Arcia and Chris Parmelee. The three of them are all left-handed corner outfield/designated hitters, and there is a decent chance that only two of them come north with the team. Kubel, who most assume will be the team's primary designated hitter, started in left field. He went 0-3, though he had some hard hits. Batting as the designated hitter was Chris Parmelee, who homered yesterday. He also hit fifth, one spot in front of Oswaldo Arcia, which struck me as a little odd, seeing as I've assumed Arcia would make the team over Parmelee. Parmelee singled again today. Arcia, who played right field, hit a home run in the fifth inning. We've talked a lot about how "options" may make forecasting a bullpen a little tricky, but I wonder if they might not have an impact here, too. Parmelee is out of options. Arcia is not. And Kubel was awfully fragile last year. If the Twins believe Parmelee is ready to turn the corner, it might make the most sense long-term to go north with Kubel and Parmelee. They could keep Arcia in reserve at Rochester for a couple months in case Kubel goes down or Parmelee flails. Keep an eye on how each is used.

What are pitchers focusing on in the first couple of spring training games? It's pretty basic, but requires some balance. Yesterday's starting pitcher, Scott Diamond, explained "At this point right now, first outing, I'm trying to attack the zone. My focus right now is working down." Closer Glen Perkins, who pitched a scoreless fifth inning, echoed that sentiment. "I just wanna command the ball. I want to throw strikes. I want to get ahead of hitters and keep the ball down, which after [Grady] Sizemore, I did a pretty good job of."[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] And despite the inevitable stories about guys working on new pitches, that means mostly airing out fastballs. Perkins threw almost exclusively fastballs. "I threw fastballs for strikes and threw one slider to get AJ [Pierzynski] at the end. I wasn't planning on throwing a slider. Josmil called one and that was a good time." Diamond mixed things up a bit more. "I threw everything. Only a couple changeups. Only a couple curveballs. Mostly fastball-happy." They hope that by doing so, they gain a little insight that they can use later. Diamond talked to pitching coach Rick Anderson after his outing about being fluid. "[Anderson] said that some of those pitches today I was nice and easy and fluid with, and some of them were a little tight. And when I'm a little tighter, that really restricts my motion. Or at least delayed action on my baseball, on my pitch." Perkins emphasized that there is a balancing act surrounding getting oneself ready. On the one hand, "I'm not into game situations. I just want to make sure I'm throwing my pitches. That's first and foremost, making sure that the pitches are ready to go." But on the other hand, part of getting ready is proving to himself that he is ready. "What got me into this position is coming to camp ready to go, ready to compete, going out there and throwing well. I don't want to have to make excuses that it's only spring training so my results don't matter. I want to go out and I want to pitch well. I think that instills confidence in me and it instills confidence in the coaching staff." But above all, the goal is to stay healthy. Perkins is looking to avoid over-stressing his arm. "I want to find that happy medium of effort and velocity and not going out there and having to overextend, having to overthrow. Where it comes out easy, it comes out good. You find that balance as the spring goes on." While Diamond wonders if some of his trouble last year weren't a result of not being healthy in the spring. "Last year in spring training, being hurt, facing GCL-Rookie ball guys? To be able to come out [this] spring in this kind of atmosphere, get the heart pumping a little bit, it's definitely going to help me get better adjusted for the season." So far, so good for Diamond. He's very happy to report he felt perfectly fine. "That's the big thing. Felt really good. Felt strong for the most part. Little anxious, though." That's natural. Nerves can be another thing to work on in spring training.

What was the fan reaction in Hammond Stadium following the gut-punching news about Miguel Sano? Honestly, it was smiles. Basking, wondrous smiles expressed with the eyes and shoulders moreso than the lips. Or at least that what I saw as I walked up to the Hammond Stadium gates. Yes, the Twins had received the worst possible news for one of their cornerstone prospects. But it was still a home opener, still 80 degrees and sunny, still a record-sized crowd watching a baseball game. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The first couple innings helped the mood. The Twins lineup jumped all over Red Sox starter Allen Webster, who is fighting to keep his wildish mid-90s fastball out of Pawtucket this year, and being opposed by the Red Sox crowded rotation. The Twins didn't help his cause. If only you really could tell everything you wanted to know about a season by that first game, first at-bat, first pitch. If so, we'd know that Brian Dozier's power last year was real. His first at-bat concluded with a double off the left field gap's wall, missing a home run by a couple of feet. If so, Joe Mauer's move to first base would turn him into an RBI machine. He immediately drove Dozier home. If so, the concerns about the Twins offense this year would be baseless. They plated three and knocked Webster from the game before he could finish his second inning. That's not how it works, of course. The real omen of the day was the Sano news. It's another delay for a rebuild that's going into it's fourth year. It always hurts to lose a year of player development, but it's worth noting that Sano's important clocks haven't begun ticking. He's only 20, and this doesn't impact his "option" years, let alone his player service time. Historically, the Twins have seen much worse. The Twins lost Francisco Liriano for a year within months of him making the team. They lost Mauer for most of his first full year in his first game. And Jason Kubel in his first offseason. And Morneau when he was hit by Ron Villone.... Sigh. Talk about an angle that doesn't get enough talk. How come so many of the Twins top prospects have been injured just as they are reaching the majors? Does that happen to any other franchise? How different could the last decade have been? And how about we hunt down the White Sox fan with the little voodoo doll and beat the snot out of him. For that job, I nominate just about anyone except Tony Oliva. As I left Hammond stadium, I saw an older man tussling in the grass with a couple of toddlers. He stopped long enough for their Mom to take an photo with his head upside down on the short grass. He got up and laughed and told his friends it was time to go It was Oliva. The kids had no idea who he was. The dad didn't either. The mom suspected it was Oliva but admitted that when he stopped while he was walking past the kids, she thought he was going to scold them for wrestling and tearing up the grass on the concourse. Nope. Instead, a day that started out with incredibly depressing (and seemingly inevitable) news ended with an impromptu joyful moment between rugrats and a Twins legend on the walkway to Hammond. Short of finding the Sox voodoo guy, maybe this is how we shake ourselves from this Minnesota sports funk. If not, at least it uncovered some smiles.

The Twins need to make some decisions about the back end of their bullpen. Those decisions might not be based on merit. To understand why, we need to talk about “options.” My favorite way to talk about technical baseball transactions is to compare them to my marriage, even if it means blatantly plagiarizing my own story. So let’s talk about… Options By the fourth year together, you better be ready for a commitment. At that point, you’re out of options. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] At 27 years old, this was explained to me subtly by my girlfriend …. OK, subtly might be a little generous. She is not known for her subtlety. To be fair, she is from Philly. And I’m a Minnesota guy. So subtlety was neither going to find the seed nor the fertile ground to thrive. And that works for us. Let’s try that sentence again. At 27 years old, this was explained to me demonstratively by my girlfriend in our fourth year together. During the first year we barely saw each other, both of us clumsily falling into a long-distance relationship. The second year I moved to Philly and we navigated those life-changing rapids. The third year we drifted lazily down life’s river. And then the fourth year came and all hell broke loose. Because I was out of options. A commitment needed to be made, or she was going to be gone. I had a decision to make. Baseball options work the same way. A team has three seasons to make up its mind. If it doesn’t commit by the fourth, the player is going to be gone. The Twins have a decision to make. Once a player is put on the 40-man roster (dating), the ballclub can only keep him off of the 25-man roster (marriage) for three seasons. It doesn’t matter how many times that person is added to or taken off of the 25-man roster during that season – the whole season is an option. So a player can be sent up and down multiple times during the season and it’s still one option. Or they can spend the entire season in the minors, and that’s also one option. The critical point is that they spend some time during that season not on the 25-man roster. Options are something that major league teams must consider as they break spring training. A player who doesn’t make the roster and is out of options can be claimed by another team which has space on its 25-man roster. She finds somebody else who is a little more willing to make a commitment. This year, options could mean bad news for some worthy relievers. The Bullpen Of the seven pitchers that will be in the bullpen, three guys are perfectly safe due to their performance and veteran status: closer Glen Perkins, right-handed reliever Jared Burton and Anthony Swarzak. At least one more, right-hander reliever Casey Fien is also a lock, though it’s worth at least noting that he has an option left. You’ll notice that we haven’t mentioned any left-handed setup men yet, and the two heavy favorites would be Brian Duensing (who also benefits from being guaranteed $2 million this year) and Caleb Thielbar. But it’s also worth mentioning that both of them have options years left too. And in an optionless world, the seventh would likely be right-hander Michael Tonkin, who sports a 95 mph fastball, struck out more than batter per inning in AAA and impressed in a few short stints with the team last year. Or else it might be right-hander Ryan Pressly, who posted a 3.87 ERA over 76.2 innings in the bullpen last year. Or maybe one of the other 13 able-bodied arms they have in camp. But it’s not an optionless world, and there are three other pitchers to whom the Twins will either need to make a commitment or lose to another team. Barring any injuries in spring training, Sam Deduno Scott Diamond and Vance Worley will all be competing for the 5th (and last) starting pitching spot, and none of them have options. So Tonkin, Pressly and Thielbar might not control their own fates. Any could be stashed in the minors while right-handers Deduno or Worley play long reliever or southpaw Scott Diamond takes the role of second left-hander. Not necessarily on merit, mind you, but because the Twins need to make a commitment or lose them. I also had to make a commitment or lose someone. So I went on a summer trip, had an experience that deserves its own column (where it can be used as an overreaching baseball analogy), and married that girl four years to the day after we met. Next month, The Voice of Reason™ and I will have been married twenty years. (And I’ve never wanted another option.) ~~~~~ If you’re ever looking for which players have options and which don’t, check out the bottom table in the Minnesota Twins Roster & Payroll page, which Jeremy Nygaard has generously created for Twins Daily.

Aaron and John go on a tour of Aaron's new place in Uptown and talk about Matt Garza reportedly turning down the Twins' sizable offer, Pedro Florimon's grasp on the shortstop job, when not to use someone's bathroom, Liam Hendriks' waiver wire tour, investing in a marriage, working from coffee shops, Josh Willingham's future, our survey, mailbag questions from listeners, hanging out at Bar Abilene with Meatsauce, speed dating, and the joys of parking. You can listen by clicking below, or download us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Here's the breakdown: 0:30 – Aaron’s new Uptown Bachelor Pad tour. 6:00 – Getting stuck in the snow 11:30 – Aaron Gleeman = Scott Seekins 13:30 – Coffee shop etiquette 16:05 – Bar Abilene 19:00 – Pedro Florimon 21:30 – Shortstop options 25:30 – Becoming Yankee fans 27:40 – Matt Garza 38:00 – Josh Willingham Wants To Stay 41:20 – Matt Guerrier delay 43:30 – Matt Capps is hurt 45:30 – CC Sabathia 48:00 – Playing basketball 51:15 - Liam Hendriks 53:30 – CenturyLink and bathroom etiquette 1:02:00 – Working from a coffee house 1:05:00 – Modern Marriage 1:17:00 – Uptown Notes 1:18:40 – Speed Dating Event 1:21:20 – Our Survey 1:23:00 – Mailbag

We know a lot of you, but it turns out that our potential sponsors don't want to know your opinion on the designated hitter. They just want the basics - age, location, that stuff. So we created a very short and anonymous survey. It'll take less than 45 seconds, I promise. Could you each please click over and fill it out quickly, so we can get back to baseball? Thank you. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

There has been more and more talk lately about catcher framing, which is the ability of catchers to impact the runs scored in a game by garnering strikes from pitches outside the strike zone. My initial skepticism around it has largely been due to the huge impact it can have. For instance, last year the difference between the best pitch framer (Jonathan LuCroy) and the worst (John Buck) is estimated at 50 runs. That's a five win difference. That's hard to believe.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] But today I wanted to look at different aspect: its predictability. That is, if a catcher is good at framing in one year, can we reasonably assume that he'll be good at it the next year? One way to look at this is to look at all catchers and how they did from year to year. If they did well one year, did they do well the next and vice versa? (I wondered about this because I was looking up Kurt Suzuki's framing numbers. They're usually been negative, but there have been some positive ones sprinkled in. I wondered how common that is.) There is a neat little statistical gizmo to do this called a correlation coefficient. A correlation coefficient examines two sets of numbers and gives back a number between -1 and 1. 1 means there is a perfect correlation, like between the temperature in Celsius and the temperature in Fahrenheit. -1 means there is a perfectly negative correlation, like the amount you spend in a month and your checking balance. And if it's 0, that means the numbers have no correlation, like Joe Mauer's batting average and the migratory penguin population. You can find the results of my study here. The bottom line: there is a lot of predictability. The runs per season had a correlation of .76, which is high. But the correlation on pitches per game is even higher .82. So catchers who have had a large positive effect end up continuing to do so. Unfortunately, most of the Twins who will play catcher this year didn't have a large positive effect last year. In fact, none of them did: Kurt Suzuki: -9.1 Josmil Pinto: -4.3 Chris Herrmann:-4.6 Eric Fryer: -0.8 I didn't choose that order to emphasize the negative. I chose to list them in my predicted order of innings caught. It's almost as if the worse they are at pitch framing, the more likely they are to play catcher. And this is where John starts rubbing his temples. And yet, that still might be better than last year. Because last year Joe Mauer was average (0.4) and Ryan Doumit was horrendous (-15.9). Still, it appears the new catching corps may not do the Twins revamped pitching staff any favors this year. ~~~ Since I'm sure you might want to do something like this yourself (and really, why wouldn't you - YEAY MATH), I thought I'd spell out the steps. 1. I pulled all the data I could from this great site and pasted it into a spreadsheet. It has all the catcher framing data from 2013 through 2007. 1b. I forgot to mention - I also limited the study to catchers with at least 3000 "samples" in a season which I assume are pitches. 2. I added one column to that data: "Prev Yr." You'll see why in a minute. 3. I imported that spreadsheet into an Access DB twice, once as a table called "Following" and another as "Previous". 4. I created a query joining those two tables, joining fields First Name, Last Name and "Prev Yr" from following to "Year" from the Previous field. I pulled the Names, Years, Per Game and RAA fields from each table. 5. Copy and paste the results from the query back into an Excel spreadsheet. 6. Use the "Correl" function to compare the values in the two "Per Game" and two RAA" fields. Ta Da!

There has been more and more talk lately about pitch framing, which is the ability for catchers to impact the runs scored in a game by garnering strikes from pitches outside the strike zone. My initial skepticism around it has largely been due to the huge impact it can seem to have. For instance, last year the difference between the best pitch framer (Matt LuCroy) and the worst (John Buck) is estimated at 50 runs. That's a five win difference. That's hard to believe. But today I wanted to look at a different aspect: its predictability. That is, if a catcher is good at framing in one year, can we reasonably assume he'll be good at it the next year? One way to look at this is to look at all catchers and how they did from year to year. If they do well one year, will the do well the next and vice versa? (I wondered this because I was looking up Kurt Suzuki's framing numbers. They're usually been negative, but there have been some positive ones sprinkled in. I wondered how common that is.) There is a neat little statistical gizmo to do this called a correlation coefficient. A correlation coefficient examines two sets of numbers and gives back a number between -1 and 1. 1 means there is a perfect correlation, like between the temperature in Celsius and the temperature in Fahrenheit. -1 means there is a perfectly negative correlation, like the amount you spend in a month and your checking balance. And if it's 0, that means the numbers have no correlation, like Joe Mauer's batting average and the migratory penguin population. You can find the results of my study here. The bottom line: there is a lot of predictability. The runs per season had a correlation of .76, which is high. But the correlation on pitches per game is even higher .82. So catchers who have had a large positive effect end up continuing to do so. Unfortunately, most of the Twins who will play catcher this year didn't have a large positive effect last year. In fact, none of them did: Kurt Suzuki: -9.1 Josmil Pinto: -4.3 Chris Herrmann:-4.6 Eric Fryer: -0.8 I didn't choose that order to emphasize the negative. I chose listed them in my predicted order of innings caught. It's almost as if the worse they are at pitch framing, the more likely they are to play catcher. And this is where John starts rubbing his temples. And yet, that still might be better than last year. Because last year Joe Mauer was average (0.4) and Ryan Doumit was horrendous (-15.9). Still, it appears that new catching corps may not be doing the Twins revamped pitching staff any favors this year. ~~~ Since I'm sure you might want to do something like this yourself (and really, why wouldn't you - YEAY MATH), I thought I'd spell out the steps. 1. I pulled all the data I could from this great site and pasted it into a spreadsheet. It has all the catcher framing data from 2013 through 2007. 2. I added one column to that data: "Prev Yr." You'll see why in a minute. 3. I imported that spreadsheet into an Access DB twice, once as a table called "Following" and another as "Previous". 4. I created a query joining those two tables, joining fields First Name, Last Name and "Prev Yr" from following to "Year" from the Previous field. I pulled the Names, Years, Per Game and RAA fields from each table. 5. Copy and paste the results from the query back into an Excel spreadsheet. 6. Use the "Correl" function to compare the values in the two "Per Game" and two RAA" fields. Ta Da!

Aaron and John visit Rye Deli on the same day the offseason ends and discuss what we want to see from the 2014 Twins, what to expect from the pitching staff and how to start their own bar with zero experience. You can listen by clicking below, or download us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Here's this week's breakdown: 2:00 - Aaron’s moving update 3:30 – Brunch 4:20 – Players in the best shape of their life 8:00 – John & Aaron’s public speaking schedule 14:00 – John meeting Aaron’s Mom 17:30 – Twins claiming LHP Brooks Raley 24:30 – Underrating and overrating Derek Jeter 37:20 – Rye Deli owner David Weinstein tutors John & Aaron on how to start a restaurant/bar with no experience 44:30 – What’s important for the Twins 2014 season? 59:40 – What can we expect from the starting rotation in 2014? 1:05:00 – Valentine’s Day 1:12:00 – Mailbag 1:29:00 – The first kiss 1:31:30 – Parker’s Second Chance Video

Aaron and John talk about potential spring training position battles, Miguel Sano's timetable, late-signing free agent pitching, new theme songs from New Zealand, a sponsor's resume, bar crawls, Terry Ryan's cancer diagnosis, mailbag questions from listeners, choosing an Olympic sport to pair up in, slumming it on other podcasts, and how to stupidly avoid moving at all costs. You can listen by clicking below, or download us from: iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

The 2013 Draft is going to be judged almost completely on the ascension of pitcher Kohl Stewart. That’s as intriguing as a $4.5 million bet on a roulette ball, hopping red to black. So much reward. So much risk. So little control. The 100 Word Primer Stewart was last year’s first round draft choice, fourth overall. After signing with the Twins, his first couple of months as a professional did not disappoint. He had the mid-90s fastball. He struck out 24 guys (both as a reliever and as a starter) and walked only four in 20 innings. He made one start in the higher of the two rookie leagues, a level below A-ball. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He’s high reward, high risk. The high risk is that he’s an 18-year-old pitcher – and there are lots of risks, both developmental and physical, associated with pitchers that young. On the other hand, it's hard to pass up someone with his upside and athleticism, either. They don't come along very often. 200 Words Deeper The Twins have been criticized plenty for focusing on control pitchers without big arms, but with this draft pick (and the $4.5M price tag that went with it) they got the consensus highest upside arm in the draft. Stewart’s fastball supposedly works around 93 mph and can go as high as 97, and he’s still just 18 years old. That’s the good news. The better news is that it’s not his best pitch. Stewart’s slider moves at 80mph, has a hard, late break, and looks a lot like his fastball until it’s too late. And he has worked with a changeup and a curveball, too. But what really gets people excited is that he could become much, much better. He’s very athletic, turning down a scholarship to play quarterback at Texas A&M to sign with the Twins. He’s still considered a thrower instead of a pitcher – an athlete who has never really focused solely on baseball or the craft of pitching. To have someone already be so talented and also so raw – that’s the stuff daydreams are made of. Of course, it’s also the stuff of nightmares. Another word for “raw” is “crude”, which is how Keith Law described him in his prospect rankings this year. He still listed him as #76 overall, though. The 300 Word Question When does the roulette wheel stop? If you listen to Law, not very soon. Law posited that Stewart could be “a good five years away from the majors.” That would likely mean putting in a full year at Low-A Cedar Rapids this year. Then he would spend another year each at Fort Myers, New Britain and Rochester, as well as maybe a repeat year as he irons out some things a la Trevor May or Alex Meyer. Or – shudder – losing a year to an injury like Kyle Gibson or Alex Wimmers. That means waiting until 2018 or 2019. Ugh. I suspect that might induce a little grumbling for those interested in a more Kershawesome path to the majors. When the Dodgers drafted Clayton Kershaw seventh overall in 2006, they also started him in rookie leagues, just like the Twins did Stewart last year. And they started him the next year in Low-A, just like Stewart probably will this year. But that’s where things changed. After dominating Low A for 20 starts, Los Angeles promoted Kershaw straight to AA to end the season. The next years, he began the season in AA, made 11 starts, and was promoted to the majors as a 20-year-old. That’s super-aggressive for any team, let alone the Twins. If Stewart strikes out 134 batters in 97 innings like Kershaw did in the Midwest League, then maybe it’s worth some debate. But given the Twins history, Stewart’s initial condition and a healthy dose of caution, Law’s scenario is far more likely. Put the over/under at July of 2018 for now. And even that much optimism has me looking for wood to knock. The assumption implicit in that estimate is that he makes it at all, which is far from guaranteed. Don’t let it be said that the Twins are not willing to gamble when the opportunity presents itself.