John Bonnes

Download attachment: Perkins_Mauer_600-321.jpg Here's today's top three trade deadline stories of the last couple days and how it might impact the Minnesota Twins: #3 - The Reliever Market Ken Rosenthal breaks down the "supply" side of MLB relievers for the trade deadline - and the Twins are completely omitted. That's a little surprising considering the Twins' seller status and the presence of Glen Perkins on the roster, but maybe Terry Ryan's protests about the subject are actually being heard. But there could be some other candidates too. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Lost in the recent slumps of Jared Burton and Brian Duensing is that they were both probably the most tradeable commodities in the Twins bullpen. Burton, prior to his groin injury, had been fantastic - a true closer candidate for a contending team looking to solidify it's late-inning strategy. And Duensing would work well with any of number of teams that are short on left-handed relief help, such as the Nationals, who we profiled this week. #2 - Yankees Could Use Catching It was revealed that Yankees starting backstop to start the year, Francisco Cervelli, is being shut down for two weeks before beginning his rehab again. The bulk of New York's playing time at catcher this year has gone to Chris Davis, who is sporting a .614 OPS. His backup has been Austin Romine, who has an OPS of .331 in his 31 games. Yikes. Even Drew Butera would be an upgrade on that. And now I notice that Ryan Doumit, after playing catcher just once the week before, started at catcher two times in the four games of the Yankees series. I don't know if that was planned - you'll recall Joe Mauer was out of the lineup completely on Monday - but we'll see how much time Doumit gets behind the plate in Yankee Stadium if he winds up in Gotham. There is a real fit there. I wonder how Yankees manager (and former catcher) Joe Girardi will feel about Doumit's defense. I suppose one could also speculate about moving a $23 million contract off the books, if one so desired. #1 - The Price Of Garza (and Perkins?) By far, the most talked about and valuable player on the trade market right now is Cubs starting pitcher Matt Garza, and there is quite a bit of speculation that he might be moved soon, with several teams pursuing him. But one of those teams will not be the Orioles, because they traded for Scott Feldman earlier this week. Yesterday we learned why. The Cubs were asking for Jonathan Schoop, a 21-year-old shortstop in AAA who ranked #50 nationally in Keith Law's preseason prospect list and Eduardo Rodriguez, a 20-year-old starter who was just moved up to AA and was #100 on Law's preseason list. From their stats this year, it doesn't look like either one is due for any major moves on the prospect lists. By comparison, here are how the Twins ranked on Law's list last offseason: Miguel Sano - 11 (moved up to 6 in an midseason Top 25 update) Byron Buxton - 22 (moved up to 2 in a midseason Top 25 update) Kyle Gibson - 41 Aaron Hicks - 49 Oswlado Arcia - 59 Alex Meyer - 61 Eddie Rosario - 65 The best equivalant trade I can come up with in the Twins system would be Aaron Hicks and JO Berrios. So now we know what the ceiling is for acquiring top prospects in this trade market. This was the premier guy, a starter, on the market a month before the deadline, and it was turned down by the other team. And it still wasn't anywhere near a Top 20 prospect. If you're looking to speculate on what it would require to pry Glen Perkins away, keep this in mind. Click here to view the article

For fans of the Twins minor league system, there were three of the organizations best pitching prospects all on the mound in one night. This is about as exciting as it gets, folks. Rochester starter Alex Meyer had pitched five straight starts of six innings by allowing two earned runs or less. New Britain starter Jose Berrios was making his fourth start at Double-A and he combined to pitch 13 innings of two-run ball in his last two starts. Lewis Thorpe has been showing signs of improvement even though his season numbers might not show it. One of these pitchers would have one of his best starts of the year. At the same time another pitcher would unfortunately be pulled early with an apparent injury.RED WINGS REPORT Rochester 6, Lehigh Valley 1 Box Score For the first time in five starts, Meyer didn't make a quality start but it was still enough to earn his sixth victory of the season. Over five innings, he allowed one run on two hits but he walked a career high five batters. It was his 13th start of allowing one or fewer earned runs this season. Lester Oliveros and Stephen Pryor each pitched two shutout frames to end the game and keep the Red Wings on top. Reynaldo Rodriguez hit his first Triple-A home run, a three-run shot, in the fifth inning. It was part of a five run fifth inning when the Red Wings sent 10 men to the plate. Doug Bernier extended his hit streak to nine games with a single in the fifth inning. With the win, the Wings take a 0.5 game lead in the Wild Card over idle Pawtucket. They also guarantee themselves a 4th straight winning month for the first time since 2006. Before the game, LHP Jason Wheeler was transferred to New Britain. MIRACLE MATTERS Fort Myers 3, Clearwater 5 Box Score The Miracle were left without any extra-base hits and the team was a woeful 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position. Byron Buxton went 0-for-5 and struck out three times. Max Kepler reached base three times and Levi Michael went 2-for-4. Stuart Turner knocked in a couple of runs. The Miracle loaded the bases in the ninth inning but they couldn't plate a run. Steven Gruver was forced to make a spot start for the Miracle. He lasted three innings and was charged for two earned runs. After pitching two scoreless innings, Alex Muren allowed a couple of runs to score in the sixth as Clearwater took the lead for good. It was the fourth loss in the last six games for the Miracle. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 6, Burlington 2 Box Score Lewis Thorpe had his strikeout mojo working for the Kernels. He struck out a season-high 10 batters over 5.2 frames for his second victory. He surrendered two runs on four hits while walking one batter. The bullpen had to do some work after Thorpe left with runners on the corners. Chris Mazza got out of the jam and limited the Bees to one hit. Jake Reed was perfect over the last two innings for his first save. Michael Quesada notched a couple of RBI in the fourth while Bryan Haar and Alex Swim each scored two runs in the game. Haar collected his 18th double of the season and Swim added his sixth two-bagger. Mitch Garver went 2-for-4 and stole his sixth base of the year. E-TWINS E-NOTES Elizabethton 2, Greeneville 4 Box Score The E-Twins struggled to find their offensive stroke in this one. The team combined to go 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position and the team left five on base. Dutch Deol had the only extra-base hit of the game a double that plated two runs. It was his third double of the year. Nick Gordon picked up a single to stretch his hitting streak to three games. Felix Jorge continued his stretch of strong starts since being send from Cedar Rapids to Elizabethton. In this contest, he went six innings and scattered four hits. He struck out four, walked one, and saw his ERA drop to 1.93 over seven starts in the Appalachian League. Keaton Steele was charged with the loss after he gave up two runs, one earned, in the ninth inning GCL TWINS TAKES GCL Twins 6, GCL Rays 7 (7 Innings) Box Score The GCL Twins got within one run in two different innings in the first game of the double header but they weren't able to overcome the five run second inning by the Rays. Josh Burris took the loss after allowing four earned runs in a third of an inning. After the first three pitchers lasted less than an inning, Josh Guyer threw the last 4.1 innings by allowing two runs on three hits. It would turn out to be quite the day for Amaurys Minier. In this game, he slugged a grand slam with two outs in the third to bring the Twins within a run. It was the only extra-base hit for the team. Rainis Silva and Joel Polanco each added two hits and Silva had an RBI. GCL Twins 4, GCL Rays 2 (7 Innings) Box Score Two runs in each of the first two innings were enough to put the GCL Twins on top in this one. Amaurys Minier knocked a two-run bomb to get the scoring started in the first inning. It was his fourth home run this season and his second of the day. In the second inning after some wild pitching by the Rays, Ruar Verkerk collected two RBI on a single passed the first baseman. Alex Tapia continued his winning ways tossing six innings and limiting the Rays to two runs on three hits. It was his fourth consecutive victory to start the season and it was his first time pitching at least six frames. Trevor Hildenberger allowed two base runners in the ninth but neither would score and he earned his fifth save. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Lewis Thorpe, Cedar Rapids Kernels Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Amaurys Minier, GCL Twins WEDNESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Lehigh Valley @ Rochester (10:05am CST) – Trevor May (Listen) New Britain @ Trenton (11:05am CST) – TBD (Listen) Clearwater @ Ft. Myers (6:05am CST) – Tim Shibuya (Listen) Burlington @ Cedar Rapids (6:35 CST) - Ryan Eades (Listen) Greeneville @ Elizabethton (6:00 CST) - Derrick Penilla GCL Rays @ GCL Twins (11:00am CST) – TBD ---- Twins win last night and you do today. Order a large or extra-large pizza from PapaJohns.com using the promo code TWINSWIN and get it for 50% off. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Valencia.jpg Aaron and John talk about dumping Danny Valencia, bringing back Tsuyoshi Nishioka, what the trade deadline inactivity means, what can be done about the Twins' medical staff, John's new motorcycle, Alex Wimmers' elbow surgery, and a report about Miguel Sano and the Beloit prospects from special guest Seth Stohs. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Correia_Kevin_600-321.jpg The easy reaction to the news that the Minnesota Twins and Kevin Correia have agreed to a 2-year/$10 million deal is to overreact. I still plan to. But before I go down that path, I want to remind myself about paradigms. A paradigm is the story around the story that impacts our perceptions. The classic example (I think from Stephen Covey) is that while riding the subway, he saw the father of several small children watching them passively as they misbehaved quite badly. People were getting angry at the children and even angrier at his indifference. That perception, and the entire car’s reaction, changed when it became clear he and the children were coming from the hospital, where they had said their last goodbyes to his wife, their mom. He was in shock. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] A paradigm is the story the conman spins to make us think that doing something stupid is doing something smart. It can also lead to overreaction, as Aaron Gleeman and I discussed on our most recent podcast. We recalled the overwhelmingly negative reaction nationally and locally when the Twins drafted Ben Revere. Some of that reaction was undoubtedly driven by two paradigms in vogue at the time. First, that the Twins were cheap, and thus overdrafted Revere to save money. And second was that they were enamored with speedy piranhas over power. Ultimately, it isn’t clear that either was true, and it certainly isn’t clear that Revere was a good example of either. Here’s an interesting thought experiment. What if the paradigms at the time had been different? For instance, what if the Twins had the reputation of the “Moneyball” A’s? Had the A’s signed Revere, it would have been example of them recognizing the value of speed and defense, getting an underrated contributor in those overlooked areas at a bargain price. (And ultimately flipping him for more than he was worth.) It might well have been a love-fest. That’s the power – and the trap – of a paradigm. The signing of Correia faces a similar challenge. The current popular paradigms for the Twins are that they love “pitch to contact” starters and that they are cheap. Correia represents the worst of both of those philosophies. So, before I overreact, let me just say that I’m aware of these paradigms. I’m aware of their power. And I’m aware that neither paradigm is really true, with plenty of counter-examples. I’m even aware that Kevin Correia is not Jason Marquis. So what am I left with? Unfortunately, I think I’m left with Kevin Correia signed for two-years and $10 million. Correia's ERA over the last two years is 4.49 and that’s pitching in the National League. He wasn’t bad because he was unlucky. Instead, on those off-years where he’s been good, it’s because he has been lucky. And he’s never pitched in the AL. I guess he’s been fairly durable. However, just because you can make every start doesn’t mean you should, a lesson that the Pirates seemingly learned when they moved him to the bullpen after the trade deadline. And while there is room for a guy like that on the bottom end of a pitching staff, it isn’t on a multi-year deal. This is not dissimilar to the Twins signing Marquis last year. Except that Marquis wasn’t kicked off of the starting rotation the year before. And he had a better year. And he wasn’t given a multi-year deal. I get that the starting pitching market is drying up. I get that the Twins need someone to eat some innings. And I get that the most vitriolic critics will wallow in paradigms that aren’t really justified. But here’s something else that isn’t justified – giving Kevin Correia a two-year deal and 10 million dollars. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: chicago-white-sox-j-black04.jpg So, you think you know what's going to happen in the AL Central? Let's find out. Every year Vegas takes bets on how teams will do over a full year. This represents an unbelievable opportunity for someone who iss super confident in their baseball statistics, because it eliminates the "sample size" excuse. So have at it. We'll start on the south side of Chicago. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The White Sox won 85 games last year, finishing second in the AL Central. However, their expected wins, which can be a slightly better indicator of the next year's record, was 88 wins. In fact, sabrmetrically, the White Sox might have been a little better than the Tigers who only had 87 expected wins. The Sox lost the division because they lost 12 of eighteen head-to-head matchups versus the Tigers. If they're 9-9, we would have had another Game 163 in the AL Central. But that success was a huge surprise. Vegas pegged them to only win 74.5 game last year, but enormous years from Adam Dunn, Alex Rios, Jake Peavy and AJ Pierzynski, as well as the midseason pickup of Kevin Youkillis, propelled them to unforeseen heights. Your belief in the White Sox depends on what you think of those years. Pierzynski and Youkillis are now gone, and the White Sox had a very quiet offseason. Almost be definition that means there should be some regression. But how much further will it go? Far enough that Rios goes back to to his .265 on-base percentage or Dunn hits .159 or Peavy nibbles at just 111.2 inning? Because that's what happened the year before. Vegas sees some regression, giving an over/under of 80.5. I felt the regression would be a little worse, down to 78 - but I have to be honest with myself: I hate that damn team. While I'd love to root for them to finish under .500, I don't trust myself to be totally subjective when it comes to these kind of back-of-the-napkin evaluations. So ultimately, this is one I probably don't bet on. You, however, kind of can. click on the survey below. Make your voice heard on which way the White Sox season will go. And then right it down in the comments so you can check it again in six months. We'll relook at each of these next October and see how we did. Get the Poll Creator Pro widget and many other great free widgets at Widgetbox! Not seeing a widget? (More info) Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Image2-150x150.jpg Aaron and John talk about the Francisco Liriano trade, break down the prospects from the White Sox and the Twins' reasoning for the deal, get sad with Otis Redding, welcome back Danny Valencia, look ahead to potential other moves before the deadline, marvel at Lew Ford, update Alex Wimmers' health, and then John leaves and Aaron does a solo podcast with the help of Twitter questions. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Of the last decade's drafts, I think it’s safe to say that the two first round picks for which the Twins took the most immediate heat were 2001 and 2007. It might be worth noting just how ridiculous that looks right now. In 2001, the Twins took Joe Mauer as the #1 pick and were lambasted for being too damn cheap and possibly blinded by a local kid. In 2007, the fiscal-based criticism was similar when they drafted Ben Revere "above slot" and it was compounded by a perception that the Twins were way too happy with their annoying little Piranhas and devoid of power.Download attachment: blackBox.jpg But if you take a look at first round picks the Twins have made, Mauer and Revere currently rank among some of the best, even given Revere’s limited role so far. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The problem with writing about the draft the day after is that you’re writing in a void. After all, we have very little idea what these players will become. And when confronted with a void, the human mind creates a reality. So we start with rankings culled by a few media members and bloggers who are sensitive to what other media member and bloggers perceive. Then we extend realities from the ones we perceive while following the club, especially when they are supported by rankings. So which realities do you want to embrace? You could go with the “Twins Love Toolsy Outfielders” paradigm, which explains why the Twins nabbed high school prep star Byron Buxton. If you're disappointed by Aaron Hicks, then that's a bad thing. If you admire Denard Span or Torii Hunter, then that's a good thing. But, of course, neither Span nor Hunter nor Hicks have any impact on the development of Buxton. Or you could go with the “Twins Are Too Cheap” which explains why they didn’t select Scott Boras client Mark Appel with the #2 pick and leaves you feeling a little bitter. It explains why the next two picks - Puerto Rican high school pitcher Jose Orlando Berrios and college relief pitcher Luke Bard - were chosen slightly above where they had been ranked by Baseball America and other ranking systems. By doing so, the Twins might save money since these players don’t have that high bonus expectations others might have had. Or it could be that the Twins didn't agree with Baseball America's rankings. There will be others realities someone will want to extend. I'm quite sure someone will absolutely find a “Pitch To Contact” trend, though I think it’s going to take some imagination. More obvious is the “Twins Are Oblivious” since they didn’t come out of the first day with a college starting pitcher. Or a “Twins Are Medical Quacks” since third pick, Bard, is down with non-arm injury. I’m looking forward to reading them. But the longer I do this, the more I conclude that none of them are legitimate. Here’s what happened yesterday: the Twins nabbed some black boxes. Or maybe a better analogy would be some junk bond portfolios. Some are very promising, highly graded, with a possible high payout. Some are less so. Twenty-nine other traders did the same thing. They did so based on experience and insider information that we have little access to. Our perceptions on what drove them or didn’t drive them are probably wrong. More than likely, they looked at these opaque boxes, shook them a bit, and picked the ones they like best. Now we get to wait to see what’s in them. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 300x250_MLB_1.jpg How about a friendly game of "I know more than you about baseball"? Our friends at DraftStreet have put together a contest for Twins Daily readers that costs nothing to play BUT will distribute $300 in prizes to our readers. Here's the link. And here's the deal.... [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Remember all the hubbub a couple years ago about a nasty piece of legislation that made it tough (maybe even impossible) to gamble with a credit card over the internet in the US? Turns out it ALSO made fantasy sports legal - and if you think that sounds like a rather large loophole, you're right. Immediately, companies like DraftStreet sprung up which turn the season long grind into quick one night leagues. You draft a team for one night and get paid out as soon as the games end that night. DraftStreet.com is at the forefront of this new trend in the fantasy world and is promoting it by giving us a FREE one-day fantasy league with $300 in prizes. Again, just click here now to sign up. I just signed up - and there's nothing nasty like asking for a credit card. Give them your age, state and pick a password. The game is also pretty easy. Our contest will be Pick 'em style drafting. The way Pick 'Em leagues work is you have 8 tiers of players and each tier will have players to choose from. All you have to do is select 1 player from each tier. You even have your choice of several Twins (or Mets, who face the Twins) that night. It really is simple. If the weather changes, you can also adjust your roster up until the contest starts on Friday April 12th at 7:05 ET. At that time your rosters will lock - but then the Live Scoreboard will be available. The Twins Daily guys will be trying it too, so even if you're not one of our readers that wins their share of $300, you'll get some bragging rights. Unless, of course, you lose to us. In which case you will never hear the end of it. Last chance to try it. CLICK HERE to sign up for free and join the Twins Daily $300 Freeroll on DraftStreet.com. What have you got to lose, other than a little personal pride when Seth beats you down? Also, feel free to talk a little smack below, or share your thoughts. Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Ticket King Download attachment: Morneau_Justin_Bat_US_600.jpg There is a lot worth remembering about baseball games. We remember games and catches and our kids’ face as a stadium shook and their faith was rewarded. And we remember players, whose time in the sunshine can be far too short for our taste. With the trade deadline falling on Wednesday, it is likely the next few days will be our last chance to say good-bye to some Twins. And one of the most likely to move is one of Twins Territory’s all-time favorites. So let’s take a look at the best seats in Target Field for saying goodbye to our friends. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Kevin Correia or Mike Pelfrey It isn’t totally crazy that the Twins, whose rotation has the worst ERA in the majors, could trade away a starting pitcher to a contending team. There are very few “ace” pitchers available, so teams are looking for innings-eaters who can keep them in a ballgame – and for whom they won’t need to give up too much. Kevin Correia has a 4.56 ERA, which is likely worse than you thought because it was under 3.00 through the beginning of May and under 4.00 as late as June 29th. He’s also on pace for 194 IP this year. There are teams that can find value in that for the right price. Alternately, Mike Pelfrey looks like he’s becoming stronger and stronger, which should be expected for someone coming back from Tommy John surgery. Here are his ERAs by month: 7.66 down to 5.90 down to 4.66 down to 2.28 in July. His strikeout rate has been climbing too: 2.8 up to 5.9 to 5.6 up to 6.5. It’s not clear if other teams recognize this progress, but that’s why they have scouting departments. If you would like to wish them well, you can pay top dollar in the infield, sections 3-14 are probably best. But if you prefer a cheaper option, just get a seat anyplace in Target Field and get there early. You can watch them warm up using the standing room counter that looks over the Twins bullpen in center field. I doubt either pitcher will begrudge you your frugality. After all, they were both signed as affordable alternatives. Josh Willingham You’ll have a little time on this one. Willingham is recovering from a knee injury. He’s schedule to return in mid-August, but if he clears waivers, the Twins have until the end of August to trade him. Lower seats in sections 125, 126 and 127 are probably the best spots if you’re looking to shout to him your appreciation. Of, if you would rather look for a Willingham souvenir, I’d recommend section 128, 129, 130 and 131. It’s in these sections – in the left field bleachers – that Willingham has been most likely to pull his home runs. In fact, of the 45 home runs he’s blasted while with the Twins, exactly zero have been to the opposite field. It’s also worth noting that if he returns healthy, those home runs could start flying again. He had 35 last year and four more through April 27th, when it was first reported that he hurt his knee. They also tend to come in bunches – he had eight occurrences last year where he went long in back-to-back games. Justin Morneau Section 3. It really has to be section 3. It’s right by first base. It’s what he runs towards when he flips an inning-ending ball into the dugout. He’s number 33. It has to be section 3, right? Of all the goodbyes that we might need to say, this one is going to hurt the most. The recognition that everyone remembers was his MVP award in 2006. But do you remember his also finished in second place for a another MVP award just two years later in 2008? And neither of those years were even close to the damage he was doing in 2010 in Target Field’s inaugural year. Through 84 games he was hitting .345, had slugged 18 HR, had drove in 56 RBI and had a 1055(!) OPS. Then he slid into second base to break up a double-play in Toronto. But we’ve talked about that enough the last three years. Instead let’s talk a little about what he did off the field. Morneau became a part of the community, hosting several casino nights that raised money for Arthritis research and founded the Justin Morneau Foundation to support underprivileged communities. He married a native Minnesotan. He’s got that whole Canadian and hockey thing going for him. And he’s been a leader on the Twins for years, respected enough internally to be the full-time locker room DJ before games. He passed Kirby Puckett and Bobby Allison on the Twins home run leaderboard this year, moving into fourth place. (He could climb to 3rd and pass Tony Oliva if he can hit nine more this year.) He’s also fourth in RBI all-time for the Twins and fifth all-time in doubles (though teammate Joe Mauer is nipping at his heels for that honor.) And he’s one of only five Twins to have ever won the Most Valuable Player award. He is certainly one of the top 10 Twins hitters of all time and you want to see those guys retire as Twins. It doesn’t always happen – not for Gary Gaetti or for Rod Carew or even for Harmon Killebrew – but that’s what we all WANT to see. And I, for one, would like to see him play one more time as a Twin. Even if it’s just to say “goodbye.” And “thank you.” Click here to view the article

Aaron & John are joined by Dana, Heather & Chris to discuss Starter jackets, anti-semitism & World Series odds. Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins have traded third baseman Danny Valencia to the Boston Red Sox for minor league outfielder Jeremias Pineda. Valencia, who started the year as the Twins everyday third baseman, has spent most of the year in Rochester but was recalled two weeks ago when Trevor Plouffe was injured. He was hitting .198 with a 522 OPS and also struggled in AAA, hitting .250 with a 688 OPS.Download attachment: ValenciaTwinsML.jpg Replacing Valencia on the 25-man roster will be Tsuyoshi Nishioka. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The player the Twins acquired, Jermias Pineda, is atypical in several ways. He is dominating the Gulf Coast League (GCL), which is a rookie league (below A ball) with a .421 batting average and a 981 OPS. He doesn't have any home runs, and is listed as 5' 11" and 175 pounds, so he profiles as more of a speedster than a slugger. He sticks out in the GCL for another reason too: he is 21 years old, which is very old for that league, so one would expect him to shine against 18 and 19-year-olds. He is playing in the GCL because he signed in March of 2011 as a 20-year-old, playing the Dominican Summer League for most of last year. So the Twins traded for a late-blooming speedster who is doing what he should be doing in rookie ball - dominating younger players. At this point, it's hard to determine the path he will take, or even what grade of prospect he seems to be. But this is reminiscent of previous trades Terry Ryan had made in which he grabbed Jason Bartlett and Alexi Casilla while they were still low minor leaguers and not highly ranked prospects. Nishioka's overall play in Rochester - hitting .245 with a .309 on-base percentage - still has not been impressive for the free agent the Twins signed to a 3-year deal before last year. However, for the last month, those numbers have been trending up and there was some speculation that he might be ready to rejoin the Twins soon. My best guess is he will play utility infielder for the Twins until Plouffe returns. For more on Pineda, stop by the Tenth Inning Stretch for a mini-scouting report. You can also join the Twins Daily thread on the trade. Or talk about the return of Nishi with the community. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Morneau_Justin_walking.jpg “Look at every path closely and deliberately, then ask ourselves this crucial question: Does this path have a heart? If it does, then the path is good. If it doesn't, it is of no use.” - Carlos Castenada It was seven years ago – in 2006 – that Justin Morneau won his American League Most Valuable Player award. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]That year Brad Radke was still pitching. Johan Santana was still a Minnesota Twin. All that existed of Target Field was the funding. And Justin Morneau was just 25 years old. This year, he’ll turn 32. And his six-year contract with the Twins, which was signed a year after he won the MVP, will end. The question is whether that will also be the end of his Twins career. ~~~ This is a story from a free ebook that TwinsDaily is publishing on Opening Day that previews the Minnesota Twins 2013 season. To get your free copy, just make sure you follow @TwinsDaily on Twitter or Like our Facebook page. ~~~ Morneau followed that 2006 season with three-and-a-half productive seasons, never giving anyone cause to doubt that he would finish his career as one of the top Twins of all time. But midway through 2010, which was shaping up to be the best season he had ever had, he slid into second base and his head hit John McDonald’s knee. It gave him a concussion, ended his season and ruined huge stretches of two more. By most observations, that seems to be behind him now, as do the nagging injuries and rust that the hiatus also brought. Morneau is in a position to have a healthy, productive season. Whether he will or not is one question. The second is what the Twins will do if he does. Worst Case Scenario We’ve seen the worst case scenario. It’s the second half of 2010. And 2011. And the first half of 2012. The worst case scenario is that Morneau is hurt – a wrist injury or a back injury or a case of hypothermia from returning to Canada sometime before June. But worst of all would be another serious concussion, which might end his career. Best Case Scenario The tougher question is “What is the best case scenario?” Obviously it involves Morneau rediscovering his boom-boom stick (as Bat Girl used to call it). But then what? Your answer may depend on whether you want to follow your head or your heart. Your head is going to ask whether it makes sense for the Twins to invest in a 32-year-old with a recent injury history that would give even the Canadian health care system pause. This is a team that is actively rebuilding, who has several high-upside prospects approaching the majors, and some of them have their own boom-boom sticks. Is it time for Morneau to make room, just like it was time for Doug Mientkiewicz to make room for him? But your heart wants to know why we would cut bait on a player who could still end up as one of the best Twins of all time. Morneau has a decent chance this year of moving up to fourth all-time on the Twins home run list, and third place (Bob Allison) and second place (Kent Hrbek) are within reach before his career is over. Morneau can serve as a bridge from one generation of the Twins to the next, just like Brad Radke did for the last generation. Plus, he lives here. He married here. Can’t we, as Minnesota Twins fans, EVER have nice things? Signs To Look For Obviously, a lot depends on Morneau. He needs to stay healthy. He needs to be productive. It would be best if he could hit left-handers again like he seemed to over the second half of last season. But he’s not the whole equation. Playing about 50 yards behind Morneau on the diamond is “right-fielder” Chris Parmelee. Like Morneau in 2006, Parmelee is 25 years old. Like Morneau, he’s a left-handed hitter. Last year as a 24-year-old, he slugged 17 home runs in just 228 AB in AAA-Rochester, or one every 13+ at-bats. (Morneau slugged 22 in 288 AB – or one every 13 AB – as a 23-year-old.) Finally, Parmelee’s best position, where he started all 62 games in Rochester, is first base. It’s probably fair to suggest that if Parmelee hits well, it would make losing Morneau easier on the Twins front office. There is also the Toronto Blue Jays. They’ve coveted Morneau both for his performance and Canadian ties for years. And despite their other expensive roster additions, their designated hitter is still Adam Lind, who hasn’t cleared a 734 OPS since 2009. If they find themselves in the middle of contention and with a black hole in their lineup, why not pay the freight on Morneau? But will the Twins listen? It might depend on whether they want to trust their head or their heart. You'll get to kick off Opening Day with your free @TwinsDaily Minnesota Twins 2013 Season Preview Ebook. Just add us to your Twitter feed by following us, or tell us you like us (we're pathetic like that). We'll publish a link to the free ebook on Opening Day on both sites. Click here to view the article

It was the end of the 2002 season. Jim Thome was finally a free agent after years of torturing the Twins. (And particularly, torturing Rick Reed. Good lord, did Big Jim take it to Reed. Thome hit more home runs (9) off of Reed than any other pitcher, even though he only had 27 at-bats against him. Think about that. He hit .333 JUST IN HOME RUNS against Rick Reed. Lordy.) Download attachment: Minnesota%u0025252BTwins%252BPhoto%252BDay%252BTiUxsOW4JqBl.jpg Anyway, Thome was a free agent. As a blogger who is asked these sort of things all the time, I must have received the question "Will the Twins sign Jim Thome?" roughly a dozen times per week. Never mind that the Twins had made absolutely zero intimations that they intended to pursue Jim Thome. Or that the Twins had a left-handed DH at the time named David Ortiz. Or that the Twins still had no hint of a stadium. Hell, they had just barely survived contraction. And yet EVERYONE wanted me to tell them the Twins might chase Jim Thome, the biggest free agent on the market. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It speaks to how Jim Thome always SEEMED like a fit for the Twins, even when there was no practical way in which he was a fit for the Twins. He publicly heaped praise on how the Twins played the game. He hit the snot out of our ballpark. He looked adorable wearing flannel next to a blue ox. He was a perfect fit, except that he was just too damn good. He signed that year with the Phillies for $85 million dollars. It locked him up for six years…during which time he still managed to end another Twins season with a game winning home run in game 163 for the arch-rival White Sox. Of course. But when the contract ended, the 39-year-old was looking to reestablish his career. Spurned by the White Sox, quarantined from the National League, he finally found his way to the Twins. (By the way, well played Bill Smith.) Not only did his career get taken off of life support, it produced a number of memorable moments: Thome passing Harmon Killebrew on the all-time list, his blast off the flagpole on Labor Day, his 600th home run and best of all…. The home run off Matt Thornton that served as the dagger for the White Sox 2010 season. Hell, I would have raised Thome’s $1.6M salary just to hear Hawk Harrelson be rendered that utterly speechless in disgust. Some treasures cannot be bought. In a golden season for the Twins in so many ways, Thome added his own luster. And the next year, even in a season in decline, he served as a reminder of the dignity of the game. He’ll return to the Twin Cities tomorrow with his old/new team the Philadelphia Philles, giving us one more chance to reminisce about our favorite (and most painful) Thome moments. But don’t feel like you have to wait. That’s what the comments are for…. Click here to view the article

The Twins won their first game of the season last night as their bats defeated Jared Weaver, the Los Angeles Angels, and the Twins own defense by a score of 6-5.Download attachment: Willingham.jpg It was a victory not just for the players on the field, but for the front office and coaching staff, as it finally validated decisions they had made throughout the offseason and spring training. Those decisions, contrary to the popular view of the Twins as a fundamentally sound team, have emphasized scoring runs over solid baseball. Tonight, they were proved right. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]For instance, the Twins signed 38-year-old career utility infielder Jamey Carroll to handle the premier defensive position of shortstop. To be sure, he was an upgrade defensively over last year's primary shortstop, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, but so were most bipeds with opposable thumbs. (With the possible exception of Trevor Plouffe.) But Carroll was signed for a much bigger financial commitment than several other significantly better fielders because of his ability to get on base. Tonight, after a frustrating start of the season in which Carroll was hitless, that decision bore fruit. On the one hand, he let a throw from Denard Span get past him that led to the fifth Angels run of the ball game, because the ball had the gaul to bounce before it got to him. But he more than made up for that gaffe with two huge hits. The first, a double, led to the Twins first run of the game and started a 3-run inning. The second, with two outs in the bottom of the seventh, plated the winning run. The biggest decision the Twins made during spring training involved realigning the outfield defensively. It benched defensive ... oh, let's go with "specialist" over "messiah" because it'e more conventional ... Ben Revere. But it added breakthrough rookie Chris Parmelee to the roster and moved slugger Josh Willingham to left field, where he felt more comfortable. He didn't look very comfortable there in the fifth inning. With two outs, a hard-hit but catchable ball was hit to the wall in left field. Willingham missed it painfully, crashing into the wall. That resulted in a three-run inside-the-park home run that blew the Twins first and only lead of the season and gave the Angels a 4-3 edge. But Willingham had looked downright cozy a half inning earlier. That's when he turned on a Jared Weaver pitch to break the 1-1 tie with a 2-run blast that gave the Twins their first and only lead of the season. He also just missed another extra base blast in his next at-bat when it drifted foul by a couple of feet. Note to Twins management and batting instructors: it might just be that pull hitting is desirable at Target Field. That sequence - giving up three, adding two - would still leave Willingham and the Twins' sprinf realignment in the red if not for the other beneficiary of the outfield shifting, Chris Parmelee. Down by two runs and facing a southpaw that was specifically brought in to pitch to him, Parmelee drilled a ground ball down the first base line where Albert Pujols was fortunately not holding a runner, because there were two men on base. The hit plated the two tying runs and Parmelee took third base when Torii Hunter awkwardly fell into the right field base line wall. Parmelee later scored the winning run on Carroll's hit. Hot bats from three newcomers, none of which necessarily exemplify the Twins defensive ideal, won this game. While some Twins defensive issues basically cost them five preventable runs, perhaps defense is something upon which this team can improve. They'll likely need to, but they didn't need to tonight. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Calculus+Formulas.gif Numbers are so clean. Until they aren’t. Yesterday we studied strikeouts/game and runs/game for teams and found a “correlation coefficient,” which is a number between -1 and 1. 1 means there is a perfect correlation, like the temperature in Fahrenheit and the temperature in Celsius. -1 means there is a perfectly negative correlation, like the amount I spend and my checking account balance. And 0 means there is no correlation, like the amount I spend and the temperature in Celsius. Unfortunately, the number we found was not 1, 0 or -1. It was .54. So what does that mean?[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It means it is somewhere in between. Our number shows that strikeouts aren’t everything, but it also shows that they’re something. Can we find something comparable? We can if we look at a different set of correlations. The most obvious place to start is in another realm of baseball – hitting. If we do the same exercise – compare the runs per game a team scores to their basic stats for 150 recent teams, what kind of correlations do we see? (The full results are at the bottom. Also, here is a link to the data.) The strongest is what you might expect – OPS, which has a .96(!) correlation. In fact, it is this crazy high correlation that drives the interest in OPS. The stats which make up OPS – OBP and SLG – also have high correlations: .87 and .92, respectively. The most widely used traditional stats for evaluating offense fall a little lower down the list. Batting average is .76. Home runs are .70. I even worked out HR/AB and HR/PA and they ranked a little lower: .67 and .65. We still haven’t found the stats that have a correlation close to the .54 that K/9 has to runs given up by a pitching staff. The stats closest to that level are at-bats, walks and doubles, each of which has a correlation around .60. Converting the last one to a rate statistic, I find that doubles/at-bat has a correlation of .547, which is almost dead on. So we might want to evaluate pitchers by strikeouts about the same way we evaluate batters by doubles. For instance, given a choice between two players, one who hits a lot of doubles, and one who doesn’t, we probably want the guy with the doubles. We also might mention how many doubles a player has as a data point to demonstrate that they have extra power. Doubles are far from a worthless item to track. But here is probably what we wouldn’t do. We wouldn’t say a free agent is worthless because he was one of the worst at his position in doubles. We probably wouldn’t comb through an organization’s minor league affiliates and suggest that their hitting philosophy is messed up because none of their teams are hitting a lot of doubles. And we wouldn’t suggest that a team scoring lots of runs won’t be able to maintain its pace because it ranks dead last in the league in doubles. Yet we do all of that when talking about strikeouts and pitching. The bottom line is that there isn’t a real clean break point here. Strikeouts are important. They might even be the most important stat we can easily evaluate for pitchers, due to a combination of impact and predictability (though we haven’t studied the latter). But it is exceptionally easy to get carried away with strikeouts, and I think most of the sabrmetric community has, including me. It may be time to step back and admit what we don’t know. And acknowledge that clean numbers aren’t always so clean. ~~~ Below is a complete list of the correlations we have found, both for hitting and for pitching. The hitting ones are compared to runs scored per game, while the pitching ones are compared to the runs given up per game. ~~~ Download attachment: Correlations In Same Year.png Click here to view the article

Download attachment: old-typewriter.jpg "John, Thanks for the support. I sometimes wonder if I'm hollering weird photoshops and awkward puns into the void. ..." I remember that terrible feeling. Only I really was hollering into the void. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] ~~~ A few days ago, I dropped a note to one of our bloggers on Twins Daily, telling them that I enjoyed their latest entry and planned to promote it. Their response is above, and it reminded me of my first seven months of blogging back in 2002. I'd spend an hour or two writing every night. And every day I'd look and find at most 15-20 people were reading me. I also remember that once Brad Zellar, an oustanding local professional writer found me and dropped me a note telling me how good he thought one of my entries was. It meant a lot to me then, but looking back, I wonder if it didn't mean everything. It might well have been the difference between stopping or writing. ~~~ It was the second time this week I've been reminded of that. The first time was yesterday when I read an outstanding short entry by internet marketing guru Seth Godin: "The cost of setting up a lemonade stand (or whatever metaphorical equivalent you dream up) is almost 100% internal. Until you confront the fear and discomfort of being in the world and saying, "here, I made this," it's impossible to understand anything at all about what it means to be a entrepreneur. Or an artist." Or a blogger. This is why I love bloggers. It's also why I have so little patience any more for media who take shots at bloggers. Yes, they're also putting themselves out into the world. But it's one thing to publish when you know you're being read (and paid). It's another to publish in the face of the monster of the void. I love people who have stared down that demon. Blogging is an act of faith, and there are few things I find more beautiful than an act of faith. (Posting on a message board the first time can be one too.) If you recognize that or feel the same way, I'd encourage you to reward those writers you think deserve that recognition with a comment or message. I also hope you'll think twice before discouraging someone brave enough to confront that fear and discomfort. ~~~ Twins Daily will continue to try and do what it can, too. If you're an independent blogger and want to let the world know you're there, please consider posting a link in our forumsof any store of which you are especially proud. Hundreds of people read those links and people will find you. We want people to find you. Just remind us where you are. Or you can blog on our site, too. We set you up one when you registered. Just go to the Blogs pageand look for a line in the upper right to "My Blog." If you're willing to try hollering at the void, know that we promote quality entries to the front page, where thousands of people will read it. That also is true for existing bloggers that want to republish a story from their site. We'll only promote full stories, but include as many teasers back to your blog as you like. We want people to find you. This is as much of the mission of Twins Daily as it is to provide independent quality Twins coverage. It is no fun hollering at the void. Blog on, John Click here to view the article

Download attachment: chain_links.jpg We can't promote all the great content the Twins Daily community is generating, but if you're not reading the blogs you're missing out on... Shanewahl provided a nice Big 10 baseball roundup that starts with the Gophers sweeping Northwestern.I loved catching up with ex-Twins with EXTC, because there have been some interesting turns. Like the one Delmon took on Friday.Twins Fan From Afar has been busy, especially because he's been watching a AA-New Britain team that's off to a fantastic start.James Richter thinks Francisco Liriano needs some tough love, because it worked for Joe Mays and Ricky Bobby.Finally, if you're looking to reference the results from the Twins minor league teams, bkucko has been tracking them for you. Click here to view the article

Two weeks ago on Gleeman and the Geek, Aaron Gleeman and I argued about Francisco Liriano. In Liriano's previous outing he had struck out 15 batters but lost the game when he gave up a grand slam in the fourth inning. Aaron chaffed at the portrayal of Liriano as "mentally weak" while I felt that Liriano, at the very least, had trouble pulling himself out of a nosedive when he started struggling. Download attachment: voices.jpg Anyone who listens to the podcast knows that Aaron and I arguing some perceived point into the ground is not unusual. What you may not know is that after shows, or even on the breaks, we often turn to each other and wonder what the hell we were really arguing about. And we often conclude that we weren’t really arguing with each other at all. We were arguing with Other Voices. In this case that became apparent around the 25:00 minute mark when Aaron refers to a story about the game. I didn’t even know that story existed. When he was arguing, he wasn’t arguing with me; he was arguing against that story. He was arguing with Other Voices that weren’t in the room. For that matter, so was I, only I was arguing with voices I’ve argued with for a decade. Those voices were arguing that player performances are dice throws, randomly determined like stratomatic cards. That wasn’t Aaron’s point at all. But I was listening to the Other Voices. Here’s the thing: I think Aaron and I see eye-to-eye on Liriano. We’ve had conversations where we are completely in sync. Aaron was fighting a fight he is accustomed to fighting and I was doing the same. We ended up at odds and then wondered what the hell we were arguing about. In my mind, one thing was certain: it wasn’t about Liriano’s mental or emotional stability when it came to pitching. Which was, of course, what the argument was supposedly about. I've seen more and more of this, just become I'm becoming more sensitive to it. It’s even more common in an oral medium where one can’t parse ones words quite as much, cover one’s tracks in a well-written argument. And that also means it is becoming more obvious on Twitter and message boards, where brevity is required. And I’ve seen it a lot over the past 48 hours since the Liriano trade. I wonder how often our reaction to something like that is based more on battles we are accustomed to fighting versus Other Voices than objective evaluation. I even wonder if we shift our evaluation to find room for our voices amid the din, like a youngest sibling finding the niche his older brothers haven’t covered. I don’t know that there is a lesson to be learned here. It’s just something I’m noticing. And as much as seeing that behavior in others bothers me, it’s even worse when I find myself not being full present, distracted or even driven by Other Voices. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: State Fair.jpg Aaron and John's last KFAN broadcast is live from the Minnesota State Fair. First they talk about the Twins slide, September callups and a report out of LA that the Dodgers pursued Justin Morneau this week. Then they are joined by Lindsay Guentzel who talks about the highlights and lowlights of living in the MLB Fan Cave, what it's like trying to build a career in media and why Aaron shouldn't lead with his hair on those first dates. Here are: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes. Click here to view the article

Buyers or Sellers They’re buyers. The Cardinals are one of three teams in the NL Central, along with the Pirates and Reds, who have the three best records in the National League. Each seems assured of a playoff spot. However, only one of them is assured of a playoff series, and that’s the division winner. The other two will be subjected to the wild card playoff game, which could result in a quick ending to a promising season. So the Cardinals have plenty of incentive to figure out a way to separate themselves from that pack. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: st-louis-cardinals.jpg What They Need Almost all of the Cardinals rumors indicate they're looking for starting pitching or bullpen help. It’s not totally clear why – their team ERA is 3.33, which is good for 3rd overall in MLB. And starting pitcher (and former Cy Young award winner) Chris Carpenter is supposed to be back at the end of the month. That might be the starting pitching they need to acquire. They could be interested in a left-handed reliever. They have 37-year-old Randy Choate, but he’s almost the penultimate LOOGY (Lefty One Out Guy). In fact, he just set a record for the most consecutive appearances without pitching a full inning. It’s conceivable the Cardinals might want someone with a little more flexibility. They seem set at closer with Edward Mujica doing the job now and Trevor Rosenthal waiting in the wings if Mujica leaves as a free agent this offseason. Finally, the Cardinals have had some problems at third base, but 30-year-old David Freese seems to have recovered from a sore thumb and is back to hitting. He’s still only at a .273 BA and a 736 OPS, but he’s trending in the right direction. Jon Jay in center field has cooled quite a bit, but the Twins don’t have a right-handed center fielder to offer in a platoon, other than Hicks. What Might Work General Manager John Mozeliak says he’s not going to trade away any top prospects like outfielder Oscar Taveras or pitcher Michael Wacha and really, why would he? His team doesn’t have a glaring weakness. The best bet is something strategic, like Brian Duensing for a lower level prospect. Sleeper Targets The good news is that in Keith Law’s most recent farm system rankings, the Cardinals were #1 overall – the only organization above the Twins. But there are also some non-prospects that are interesting. Seth Maness –RHP – MLB – 24 years old Maness wasn’t a top 10 prospect, but was always recognized for his impeccable control; he walked 9 and struck out 83 last year in AA over 123.2 innings. He started this year in their AAA rotation but has been working out of their bullpen since. He won’t blow anyone away – 13K and 4BB in 27.7 IP, but has a career ERA in the minors of 2.80. He could be a solid back of the rotation innings eater. Tyrell Jenkins – RHP – High A – 20 years old If you’re more a fan of future potential and willing to accept some risk, Jenkins might be more your speed. The former football player has a 93-96 mph fastball but hasn’t shown he knows how to control it or how to develop an offspeed pitch. He’s a project, but a project with upside. Pete Kozma/Daniel Descalso – SS – MLB – 25/26 years old I’ll take whichever one they’re tired of. Kozma surprised late last year, but is hitting just .236 this year. Descalso may be stealing his job, but he’s just a year removed from hitting .227. Kozma will be a great defender, Descalso a great utility player. Neither will hit much, but I’ll take a flyer on either. Dream Target Matt Adams – 1B – MLB –24 years old If the Cardinals can’t find room for him at first base, the Twins sure can. Adams is blocked by Allen Craig, who is having a heck of a year - .324/.370/.491. But Adams has put up a 30+ home run year just two years ago in the minors, blistered AAA last year and is hitting .319 with a 953 OPS this year. I don’t know just what the Twins would need to do to pry him away, but he’d be a great addition, even if he does bat left-handed. Click here to view the article

After reaching Detroit's AAA Toledo team as a 21-year-old, Hoffman spent his third full year with them last year as a 24-year-old. But the left-handed reliever's stats showed a change. Last year, Hoffman struck out 35 batters in 35 innings. He had never come close to that rate previously. He thinks he knows why. "The pitching coach, who is now the coordinator of Detroit, AJ Sager, told me I needed to learn to throw my slider for a strike," says Hoffman. You don't really think about using it as a strikeout pitch. He goes 'You need to be able to throw that 0-1, 0-0, 2-0, to keep hitters off balance.' "I took that to heart, went home and worked on throwing it as a strike. I would actually go out [in games] and throw 15 pitches and I'd throw 13 sliders. It was just keeping hitters more off balance than anything. You're a little more effective when you take that to heart, which you don't think about." Hitters figured out the change, so Hoffman further pivoted to keep them off balance. "You change it up," replied Hoffman. "You don't want them to get 'Oh, yeah, he's just going to throw sliders at you.' You're going to change it up. One outing is strictly fastballs. Or I'll throw it and pitch backwards to guys. It's one of those weird little things that you don't think about until they sit down and tell you." The results suggests that Hoffman may have turned a corner just prior to the Twins finding him. It wasn't a coincidence that he found the Twins, either. "[My agent] sat me down, and he has a top five list of where he would like us to go and a top five list of where we're willing to consider. And Minnesota was on there. And we had a couple of other teams, but all-in-all, the best opportunity was here to maybe get a call up." Hoffman and his agent looked at the Twins roster and saw plenty of left-handers, but most are young left-handed starters. I wonder if they considered that Scott Diamond might need to be in the bullpen if he doesn't make the rotation, since he's out of options. But while Hoffman isn't sure his choice will lead to a call-up, he feels like right now, he made a good decision. Because he's happy. "Don't tell my secret: it's been awesome. Whether I get called up or not, it's been an absolutely awesome experience for two weeks already." Click here to view the article

Download attachment: PippWally.jpg Aaron and special guest co-hosts Joe Nelson and Nick Nelson talk about Matt Capps' injury and the closer replacements, Trevor Plouffe's case for the All-Star game, what to do with Francisco Liriano, the buyer versus seller debate, Brian Duensing's move back into the rotation, more Josh Willingham heroics, Byron Buxton's pro debut, and why John Bonnes shouldn't even bother coming back from vacation. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Even prior to tonight’s shellacking, the Twins collective ERA sits at 5.59, last in the major leagues. On the Gleeman and the Geek show last week, I asked “Can a team that ranks towards the bottom of the league in pitching even pretend to be competitive?” It turns out they can. Since 2000, there have been five teams that made the playoffs even though they ranked in the bottom third of the league in ERA. One of them was the Twins. In 2009, after a tense game 163 versus the Tigers, the Twins snuck into the playoffs with the 23rd best ERA in the major leagues. That same year, the Angels won their division (and their first round playoff series) with the 21st best ERA. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The same thing happened in 2005 when both the Red Sox and Yankees make the postseason while ranking 24th and 22nd overall. Finally, the Phillies first trip to the playoffs in a decade (and the unofficial start of their current dominance) started in 2007, when they sported the 23rd best ERA. That’s a long ways from Halladay, Lee and Hamels. None of those teams made it to the World Series. But two World Series winner since 2000 had an ERA that ranked as low as 16th – the 2000 New York Yankees and the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. In fact, the worse staff ERA has beaten the better staff ERA for the championship 8 of the last 12 years. Last year was especially lackluster. Only one team – the top-ranked Phillies, had an ERA better than eighth overall. The other seven teams all fell between #8 (Tampa Bay) and #18 (Detroit). More good news for the Twins is that there isn’t a lot of pitching firepower in their division. The White Sox are off to a fast start because their staff ranks 9th overall. But after that, there isn’t an AL Central team that ranks higher than 21st, who is Cleveland. Detroit (23rd) and Kansas City (27th) are floundering, too. The Twins don’t necessarily need a miracle on their pitching staff to compete this year. They just need to not completely suck. That’s a pretty low bar to set, but it might be high enough to make this season entertaining. It also may be unreachable. Click here to view the article

According to Joe Christensen, Ron Gardenhire detailed the plan for the Twins early-season rotation in his post game talk. The Twins will start with a four-man rotation for their first four games and and then switch to a five-man rotation for the second cycle. Download attachment: uspw_5419352.jpg The dark horse who will be added is Liam Hendriks, who will pitch the third game of the season in Baltimore following Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano. Nick Blackburn will be scheduled to pitch for the Twins Home Opener. Next follows and off day, so the Twins will go back to Pavano on Wednesday. That second time through the rotation will include a fifth pitcher, who will face the Rangers at Target Field on April 15th. That fifth pitcher could be Scott Baker, who is coming back from tendinitis in his elbow, or Jason Marquis, who is out with a family emergency. If both return, it's possible that Liam Hendriks is returned to Rochester, but it's also possible that Hendriks stays in the rotation. If neither is available, the Twins might also consider turning to reliever/swingman Anthony Swarzak, who threw six innings today against the Pirates giving up one run. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John take the podcast to Summit Brewing's "Backyard Bash" and talk Download attachment: Mauer_Joe_Hitting.jpg about the status of Joe Mauer's concussion, position switching Hall of Fame credentials, Josmil Pinto's hot start for the Minnesota Twins, top prospects going to the Arizona Fall League, a new "official couple of the podcast" contender, Trevor Plouffe's ticking clock, the minor league affiliates' playoff runs, mailbag questions from listeners, and sweating to death. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article