John Bonnes

Can anyone find the tie-breaker criteria for home field advantage of a game 163 beyond just head to head record? The Twins have a 3-3 record this year against both the Astros & Rangers, so I'm wondering who hosts game 163 if the Twins tie one of them for the last Wild Card win. Logically, I would think it would be recor in the AL, which would make that game at Target Field, but MLB can have some weird criteria for tie-breakers.

Did one Brain Dozier swing change everything? Yes it did. On Friday, July 10th, the Tigers were playing their second game of a four-game set versus the Minnesota Twins. The Tigers were in an unusual position - behind the Twins by a couple of games in the standings. But there was no way that was going to last. The Tigers had owned the Twins for four years and 2015 was more of the same; the Tigers had an 8-2 record against the Twins so far that season. And for eight innings, the script was followed. Ace Justin Verlander, who had just recently returned to the rotation, was masterful. Meanwhile, the Tigers chased Ervin Santana after just four innings. As a result, the Tigers entered the 9th inning with a 6-1 lead. But the Twins rallied and capped their comeback with a Brian Dozier home run to left field. The Twins walked off 8-6 winners. It was just one game, but to Twins fans it felt like the passing of a torch. The aging Tigers era was over. The youthful Twins era had begun. I don’t know if that’s how it felt to Tigers fans, but since that moment, things have fallen apart for the Tigers. They lost the last two games of that series. Then they stumbled badly enough through the rest of July that General Manager Dave Dombrowski became a seller at the trade deadline, moving ace David Price to the Blue Jays and slugger Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets. Then Dombrowski was fired. Now it looks like the Tigers manager, Brad Ausmus, will be fired at the end of the season. There are even rumors that former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire is the frontrunner to replace him. That’s what happens when a team implodes; the Tigers’ record since that fateful night is only 21-36. So the Tigers visit Target Field this September with recent roles reversed. This year, they are trying to play the spoiler while the Twins are chasing a playoff spot. They’re still dangerous. Detroit is 8-5 versus the Twins this year, though it appears the Twins will miss Verlander in this series and their other top pitcher, Anibal Sanchez, is on the DL. With an extended stretch of summer this week, there should be plenty of Twins fans watching the teams adopt their new roles. After all, who wouldn’t want to see that one swing that changes everything? Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports View full article

Aaron and John talk about going back to podcast-only, bar-hopping mode, hitting the over on 72.5 wins, playing the White Sox, Eddie Rosario's odds of turning back into a pumpkin, Eduardo Escobar's hot streak, Torii Hunter showing signs of life, Trevor May's future role, not calling up Max Kepler or Jose Berrios, what to make of Byron Buxton so far, and Oktoberfest at 612 Brew. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. http://gleemangeek.libsyn.com/episode-215-september-contenders View full article

News flash: you're not betraying baseball if you watch some football. And you're not betraying Twins Daily is you check out Vikings Journal. There is room for both in your hearts. There is room for a lot in your heart. Turns out, you have a big heart. So check it out. And if you like to dive into the details on stuff, you might want to pay special attention to the Vikings Journal Forums, where all kinds of smart folks get together and talk Vikings. Maybe even you. View full article

Maybe none. He might not have done steroids if he had stayed with the Twins.

How the hell is this Minnesota Twins team still competing? That’s not rhetorical. I’m seriously wondering. Consider: The Twins four highest paid pitchers – Ervin Santana, Rick Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins – have all missed significant time this year, and three of them are not available right now, in the midst of the playoff race. How the hell is this Minnesota Twins team still competing? That’s not rhetorical. I’m seriously wondering. Consider: The Twins four highest paid pitchers – Ervin Santana, Rick Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins – have all missed significant time this year, and three of them are not available right now, in the midst of the playoff race. The four most productive veterans in the lineup – Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, Torii Hunter and Brian Dozier – look like the walking wounded. None has been put on the DL all year, but if you doubt their status, consider: NONE of them have a higher OPS since the All-Star Break than Shane Robinson. Shane. Robinson. Aaron Hicks has had two stints on the DL. Miguel Sano looks like he needs a walker to get around the bases. Several guys in the bullpen are on the verge of being overused, and that’s not counting Brian Duensing and Casey Fien who haven’t looked right all year. I’ll ask again: how the hell is this Minnesota Twins team still competing? The answer is both pleasant and encouraging: the youngsters have been carrying this team. In the rotation, 27-year-old Kyle Gibson leads the team in innings with a respectable 3.87 ERA. 28-year-old Tommy Milone came back from a short stay in Rochester and is now posting a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than at any time in his career. He’s contributed a 3.54 ERA over 19 starts. And 24-year-old Tyler Duffey has been perhaps the Twins best pitcher down the stretch, posting 2.67 ERA in the five starts since his recall. Everyone knows the impact that 22-year-old Sano has had on the offense, but he’s not alone. 25-year-old Hicks carried this team for a month and looks like he’s having his breakthrough year. Ditto 26-year-old shortstop Eduardo Escobar, who is only behind Sano and Dozier in OPS on the team. And while Eddie Rosario’s strikeout/walk ratio continues to scare me, he’s continued to hit, providing a potent left-handed bat. The baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint, the cliché goes. A number of the veterans look like they’re entering Mile 26. This team may be running on fumes right now, but it’s still running, fueled by some younger, fresher legs. View full article

John is joined by the incomparable Steve Neuman, SABR historian Dan Levitt, and Hans Van Slooten of Baseball Reference while Aaron trains kittens to fight in the terrifying wilds of central Wisconsin. They talk about how the Twins can fix their bullpen, where Terry Ryan ranks in comarison to other MLB general managers, some vintage #SanoPorn, the end of JO Berrios' season, Byron Buxton's next three weeks, contemplate what alien/good-intentioned ghost has taken over Eduardo Escobar's body, the emergence of Tyler Duffey, Glen Perkins' various maladies (with a Twitter update from Perkins himself), and if the Twins' "hero of the week" method can get them to the postseason. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. http://traffic.libsyn.com/gleemangeek/GATG_09062015_FINAL.mp3 View full article

This morning, I got 20 more tickets for the pub crawl and am releasing them right now. Grab them before they're gone! Crawl + Twins Tickets Crawl Only Twins Daily Touch 'Em All Pub Crawl sponsored by Proximo Spirits: September 19th, noon to ??? Ray J's American Grill, The Office Pub & Grill, Sneaky Pete's, Target Field Includes T-shirts, free drink samples, prizes, drink specials Price: $30 for Crawl and Twins Ticket (but just $25 on Thursday and Friday) or $15 for Crawl Only For more details see: Monday: Touch 'Em All Pub Crawl Set for Sept 19th. Tuesday: Pub Crawl Bars And Route Announced! Wednesday: Extras and Prizes Announced! Please don't delay to get your tickets. We need to cut off sales on Tuesday and the tickets may not last even that long. Again, here are the links: Crawl + Twins Tickets Crawl Only View full article

I don't doubt he will hit. I do doubt he will hit this year. And I also think he will need some additional bake time in AAA before he's ready for the majors. I'll add one more thing: I don't want to ruin someone that looks like a thoughtful kid by exposing his confidence to a major beat down when I don't need to. But that's something I'll trust Molitor and the team to better evaluate than I.

He also made it to second base on a ball that barely made it out of the infield. The boy has some dazzline skills, no question.

My favorite metric for MVP is Win Probability Added. It best measures how fans think about the MVP - it goes beyond the overall stats and adds the context of the hits. Were they big hits, that lead to wins, or empty home runs, to extend a five-run lead. (They don't, however, take into account fielding.) Sure enough, Sano, in his couple months with the Twins, leads the team with a 2.53 WPA. But that's about 30th overall in the AL. So it's hard to say. However, I wonder if there is an additional context that would be even more valuable with WPA. WPA measures the probability of adding to a win, and so late game hits in close games provide additional value. But what if there was a metric called "Playoff Probability Added"? Similar to WPA, PPA would measure how much a player adds to his team's probability of making the playoffs. If that metric existed, I think his performance would be getting a lot of extra credit, as it is happening late in the season for a team in a close playoff race. And just like the MVP vote often reflects WPA, I think the MVP vote would even better reflect PPA. Writers follow this stuff and know that Sano has become a driving force for the Twins to make the postseason. His gaudy HR and RBI numbers in limited time can only help him, too. If the Twins sneak into the wild card game, especially if he has a big couple weeks in September, I have no doubt he'll be listed as a "dark horse" MVP candidate and get votes. And if PPA existed, I think we could statistically show that he really should be.

This game had almost everything a Twins fan would want and a lot they would not. The Twins beat up White Sox ace Chris Sale, blew that lead, tied it up again on Miguel Sano's 176th home run of the year, padded their lead with Piranha-ball - and then damn near blew it again in the ninth inning. Here are three observations about players and events in the game. The Good It’s no secret that Eduardo Escobar has been ridiculously hot this last week, and that continued with three hits, two of which were doubles, last night. But “hot” might not do him justice, because “hot” implies his improvement is temporary. He’ll undoubtedly cool down – entering yesterday he had a 1.000 OPS since August 5th – but there are indication that we’re seeing Escobar turn a serious corner. This game had almost everything a Twins fan would want and a lot they would not. The Twins beat up White Sox ace Chris Sale, blew that lead, tied it up again on Miguel Sano's 176th home run of the year, padded their lead with Piranha-ball - and then damn near blew it again in the ninth inning. Here are three observations about players and events in the game. The Good It’s no secret that Eduardo Escobar has been ridiculously hot this last week, and that continued with three hits, two of which were doubles, last night. But “hot” might not do him justice, because “hot” implies his improvement is temporary. He’ll undoubtedly cool down – entering yesterday he had a 1.000 OPS since August 5th – but there are indication that we’re seeing Escobar turn a serious corner. One sign of a player making a fundamental change to his approach is a change in the strikeout-to-walk ratio. Escobar has always been a bit of a free swinger. You might remember us wondering, in early May, when he’d get his first walk of the year. His ratio for his career is close to 3.5:1. It’s hovered around that each year of his career, including this year. Which is why seeing a 10:10 ratio since August 5th is so jarring. Looking at his career, month by month, we’ve never seen anything like this. It’s only been a month, and I’ll be a lot more excited when I see it for a second month, but this bears watching. Escobar won’t stay this hot. Eventually, pitchers will get the message that if they don’t throw him strikes, they're going to get ahead in the count, so they’ll adjust. But making pitchers throw strikes and not swinging at pitches out of the zone - that’s a skill. I wonder if we’re not seeing the first few signs of a whole new level of production from Escobar. The Bad Byron Buxton has all the tools to be an unbelievably good major league outfielder, and shines defensively even when he’s replacing Aaron Hicks. But he has frequently looked overmatched at the plate. And that isn't just the "eye test." He is off to a historically rocky start statistically. Here are the highest strikeout totals for a Twins player in his first 22 games, along with walks and batting average. One can argue that Buxton's strikeout total is partially a result of facing last night’s pitcher, Chris Sale, seven times. Or of ending his last stint with four strikeouts with a broken hand. But even with a handful of fewer strikeouts, he’s in the top three historically. And, of course, the strikeouts aren’t the real issue; it’s the strikeouts plus the lack of walks that is the issue. It’s no big deal for a rookie to struggle when promoted to the majors over his first 20 games. Maybe some hits don’t fall or there is a little nervousness. But there is a difference between some initial struggling and just not being ready for play at this level, and the most frequent place that shows up is in K:BB ratio. Buxton is fun to watch. He’s elite defensively. He should eventually be a star. And he might be the best option the Twins have for a third outfielder when Aaron Hicks comes back, though I think there can be plenty of room for contradicting opinions on that point. (And if you want to hear plenty of contradicting on that point, check out the latest episode of Gleeman and the Geek.) But he looks so overmatched right now at the plate that it isn’t clear that he belongs in the majors yet. Let’s not forget that he’s only 21 years old and has had about a week in AAA. If things don’t turn around in a hurry for him, he might not only lose his starting role in this pennant run, he might also give second thoughts as to which level he should play next April. The Ugly Giggle. Gawd, I love playing the White Sox. Here's the play of the game. Also, your moment of zen: http://m.mlb.com/video/v439007683/?game_pk=415617 View full article

You know the date and time. You know the places we’ll go. Now lets’ get to the good stuff. Free Booze Each of our stops will have free drink samples exclusively for the Touch ‘Em All Pub Crawl participants, made from Proximo Spirits’ high-end offerings such as Three Olives Vodka, Maestro Dobel Tequila, Kraken Rum or Bushmill’s Whiskey. And that’s on top of all the drink specials that they’ll be offering only to Pub Crawl participants. Great Prizes In addition, we’ll have door prizes and a special scavenger hunt contest where you get to dig up dirt on MinnCentric writers. The top prizes will be two pairs of front row Minnesota Twins tickets for the final series of the year versus the Royals. If the Twins clinch a spot in the playoffs, it will most likely be for one of these games! Price And the best part is the price. We have two options: First, to get the t-shirts, free drinks, prizes and a Field View ticket to the Twins game is just $30. However, thanks to Proximo, we are offering the whole package for just $25 for Thursday and Friday ONLY. And we must cut off sales completely by noon on Tuesday the 8th. You can buy this package at this link tomorrow at 8 AM. Already have tickets to the game? That’s OK – we also have a package where you can just do the Pub Crawl for $15, which include the t-shirt, free drink samples, prizes like the front row tickets and drink specials. Again, sales cut off completely by noon on Tuesday the 8th. You can buy this package at this link tomorrow at 8 AM. For those prices, you'll want to spend some time today rallying your friends to join. You’ll get a package the week of the crawl with your Twins tickets, drink tickets and t-shirts in time for the crawl. Obviously, if you’re not 21 years old, please do not buy a ticket – we won’t be giving any refunds. Finally, there are a limited number of tickets available – we can only fit so many people into these bars. And there will be no tickets available after Tuesday the 8th. So please don’t delay. We’ll see you tomorrow morning. Twins Daily Touch 'Em All Pub Crawl sponsored by Proximo Spirits:September 19th, noon to ??? Route: Ray J's American Grill, The Office Pub & Grill, Sneaky Pete's, Target Field Included: T-shirts, free drinks, prizes, drink specials. For more details see: Monday: Touch 'Em All Pub Crawl Set for Sept 19th. Tuesday: Pub Crawl Bars And Route Announced! Tomorrow: View full article

I'll start with this: I like the callups so far, though there are dangers. For instance, I hope Santana doesn't replace Escobar. Santana is hot as fire right now, but Escobar has earned that spot, IMHO. As for Berrios - I don't know what to think. ON the one hand, the Red Wings UnMagic number is 3 & 2 for the Division and Wild Card, so it could be that the Twins are waiting for an official clinching of that before they call up JO. After all, you have to think Rochester would squeal pretty loud if the Twins pulled Berrios in what could be an elimination game. On the other hand, those that can should already be squealing. The Twins just took their top two hitters. It sure seems like they're throwing in the towel. So I guess I would lean towards this meaning the Berrios is not getting a callup. The Twins will let him reach his innings limit and shut him down, at least for a while, which is probably the best thing to do long-term (and maybe even the moral way to treat the kid) but sure smarts for everyone involved right now.

We’re very happy to announce our partner bars for the Twins Daily Touch ‘Em All Pub Crawl sponsored by Proximo Spirits. Each will be offering specials only for participants with a valid t-shirt…and something more that we’ll announce tomorrow. Before I get to this, let me remind you – tickets will be very limited. They will only be on sale from Thursday, September 3rd through Tuesday September 8th. And they might not last that long - the Minneapolis Fire Marshall frowns upon us overselling this event. Stop by Twins Daily at 8AM on Thursday to make sure you get your tickets. We’ll give you the link tomorrow, so you’re ready to go. We’ll start at Ray J’s American Grill (Noon to 1:45), who was voted the best wings in Minnesota by WCCO TV. They’ll have some food specials on top of the drink specials they’ll be offering. Also, there should be plenty of reasonable parking options over the river, which should save some dough. From there, we’ll have about a 20 minute walk across the historic and scenice Hennepin Avenue Bridge to The Office Pub and Grill. (2:15-3:30) With 18 HDTVs, we should be able to keep up with college football scores or maybe root against the Blue Jays who will have an afternoon game. Then it’s just a 10 minute walk to Sneaky Pete’s (3:45 – 5:30). It has three bars so there should be plenty of room. Can you still buy a beer from Wally the Beerman at Sneaky Pete’s? We’ll find out. We’ll also finish off our contest and provide the grand prize … which I’ll announce tomorrow. Finally, we’ll head over to Target Field where we have Field View tickets. We’ll also likely continue our Pub Crawl through the various establishments at the ballpark, which we’ll coordinate during the Pub Crawl. Again, we expect somewhere between 100 and 200 people and demand will be high. Please stop by tomorrow to hear about the generous extras that Proximo and our participating bars will be providing exclusively to our group. And then set an alarm for Thursday morning….. View full article

It sure feels like we're counting a lot of chickens before they hatch. Kepler doesn't have a bat above AA. Arcia has been a disaster. Rosario still like a 7:1 K:BB ratio, so who knows how long his success lasts? Vargas fell flat couple of times this year. Hell, even Buxton looks like he might not be ready offensively for this level right now. So why are we making room for any of them by trading Plouffe? It seems comparable to trading away Escobar to make room for Santana and/or Polanco. It's one thing if someone wants Plouffe and is making an offer you can't refuse, or filling another critical need like catcher. But I'm not shopping him for a few more prospects right now.