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Everything posted by Jeremy Nygaard
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Get To Know 'Em: Future Twin "PTBNL"
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Another thing that I heard... maybe it was Seth that mentioned it on here or just me, was that there have been questions about Paddack's elbow, so the PTBN might be allowing some time to see how he pitches over the first month of the season. Could it be that if the elbow acts up, there might be a different list...?- 48 replies
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Get To Know 'Em: Future Twin "PTBNL"
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I included Morejon later because I thought it would be an interested maneuver. But, yeah, I'd think you're right on it not being Morejon.- 48 replies
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Get To Know 'Em: Future Twin "PTBNL"
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've read that's it allowed to trade a player on the 60-day IL. You can only use the 60-day IL with a full 40-man. I am not sure if a 60-day IL'd player named as a PTBNL has to be reinstated to either 40-man. I cannot think of an example of this happening before.- 48 replies
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Get To Know 'Em: Future Twin "PTBNL"
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You're probably right. I just went into the tool and reversed the trade and took the difference, not accounting for Rogers value being higher now than before. But either way, it's going to be someone and being a recent IFA-signee makes the most sense. Susana is probably aiming too high. Dang. I liked him.- 48 replies
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So far - and understandably so - there has been very little information released on the future mystery player aside from one tweet from Darren “Doogie” Wolfson. Anything beyond that is complete speculation. But speculation can be fun, so let’s take a closer look at who the Twins might be adding in the next few weeks. To give me an idea of players who might be included, I plugged the trade into Baseball Trade Values. Obviously, this isn't an exact science, but it’s probably the least biased way to come up with a list of names. Plugging in the trade as it happened, the simulator had the Twins giving up 4.9 more value points than it received. The potential inclusion of any of the Padres top prospects would tip the scale heavily in the Twins favor, but there are a number of prospects in the next tier who could make sense as this “player to be named later.” Typically, when a trade like this occurs, the teams agree to a list of players and conditions. It could be as simple as having six names on a list and the Twins get to pick one name off of that list on May 1. It could be something more complex. It could be - and this case might be - something that makes a whole lot of sense. Let’s take a look at some names that may be on that list. And why the Twins may want them. Ranked from least likely to most likely to be a Twin, in my opinion. Joshua Mears, Outfield. Ranked in the system’s Top 10 by both MLB.com and Baseball America, Mears was drafted in 2019. His power is his calling card. He already has two home runs in three games this season in high-A, but has struck out in eight of his twelve at bats. As the top-rated prospect on my list and - in my opinion - the likelihood that the Twins prefer pitching, I think the chances of Mears being the player is small. Samuel Zavana, Outfield. Zavana checks in on BA’s list at #12, but missed MLB.com’s. Zavala fits the profile of what the Twins like with a scouting report that includes things like “regarded as one of the best pure hitters” in his signing class and having “long possessed a knack for finding the barrel.” The 17-year-old would make a ton of sense. But in trying to sleuth this out, Zavala will be playing in the complex league this year, so the Twins won't even get a chance to scout him between now and then. So if it were to be him, why not just include him in the original deal? Victor Acosta, Shortstop. Acosta, like Zavana, will be playing in a complex league this summer. Ranked #11 by MLB and #12 by BA, I put Acosta a notch above Zavana because he has more defensive value. But, again, if you can’t see him in the next month, wouldn’t you have wanted to get him into your complex as soon as possible? Robert Gasser, Pitcher. Gasser is ranked #9 on both sites after being selected in the Competitive Balance, B Round in the 2021 draft. After getting 15 innings of pro ball under his belt last year, Gasser, a lefty, made his High-A debut last week. It was brutal. Four walks, four hits, seven outs. I don’t think a single game is a reason the Twins wouldn’t trade for him though, I think it’s because the Padres would be less likely to include him on the list. The next guy is a complete wild-card who technically fits Doogie’s profile. Adrian Morejon, Pitcher. Morejan, 23, is a highly-regarded Cuban left-hander who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s a “non-roster” guy because he’s on the 60-day Injured List, so he wouldn’t require a 40-man move. Morejan has 16 games of MLB experience under his belt and spent the last five seasons ranked in Baseball America’s Top 100. While not expected to return to the mound until later this season, it’s been a year since his surgery. Being a PTBNL could just be a way of giving the Twins a chance to get a greater feel of how his recovery is going. Remember, this trade all came together very quickly. For what it's worth, even though there are over 100 potential players for this to be, I’d bet on it being one of these three over the field. Full disclosure: I like taking long odds. It’s not often successful. Victor Lizarraga, Pitcher. Signed out of Mexico last year and ranked #13 by MLB and #15 by BA, Lizarraga is pitching in Low-A ball at 18 this year. He would make a ton of sense as a lottery ticket in a trade such as this. He’s a fastball/curveball/changeup pitcher with shaky command. Kevin Kopps, Pitcher. Kopps, currently in AA, ranks #14 on BA’s list and #16 on MLB’s list. Drafted in the 3rd round last year, Kopps spread his 14 ⅔ innings over three levels, striking out 22 and notching three saves. Kopps is serving as a closer using one big weapon: a breaking ball that has been nearly unhittable. Some call it a cutter, some call it a slider. Baseball America calls it the best slider in the system. The Twins, if I had to guess, would deploy whatever it is in the same way they used Sergio Romo’s and Tyler Clippard’s sliders. Kopps, who turns 25 soon, has Tommy John in his rearview and could soon be a bullpen option for whatever team he is on. Jarlin Susana, Pitcher. Susana is ranked #18 by MLB.com and the just-turned-18-year-old has an impressive and imposing 6’ 6”, 235-pound frame. Signed in January by the Padres for $1.7 million, Susana has a big-time fastball that can touch 100 and a slider that is next best pitch (among the four he throws). So what separates him from the other complex league pitchers? Because of when he signed, he can’t be traded until later this month. ? Maybe it’s a coincidence. Or maybe Susana is the player to be named later. (The Padres also added many other international free agents in mid-January who become eligible to be traded later this month. Among them are two 16-year-old infielders, Yendry Rojas and Rosman Verdugo. Neither are as highly regarded as Susana, though. Rojas, from Cuba, is a very good hitter with decent size (6' 1", 190) and speed and Verdugo, from Mexico, was considered the top prospect from Mexico.) What do you think? Who do you prefer?
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There was no Twins game last Thursday, but there was still activity at 1 Twins Way as the team completed a trade with the Padres. Heading to San Diego was Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker and a whole bunch of cash. Coming back to Minneapolis was Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan and the always interesting “player to be named later.” So far - and understandably so - there has been very little information released on the future mystery player aside from one tweet from Darren “Doogie” Wolfson. Anything beyond that is complete speculation. But speculation can be fun, so let’s take a closer look at who the Twins might be adding in the next few weeks. To give me an idea of players who might be included, I plugged the trade into Baseball Trade Values. Obviously, this isn't an exact science, but it’s probably the least biased way to come up with a list of names. Plugging in the trade as it happened, the simulator had the Twins giving up 4.9 more value points than it received. The potential inclusion of any of the Padres top prospects would tip the scale heavily in the Twins favor, but there are a number of prospects in the next tier who could make sense as this “player to be named later.” Typically, when a trade like this occurs, the teams agree to a list of players and conditions. It could be as simple as having six names on a list and the Twins get to pick one name off of that list on May 1. It could be something more complex. It could be - and this case might be - something that makes a whole lot of sense. Let’s take a look at some names that may be on that list. And why the Twins may want them. Ranked from least likely to most likely to be a Twin, in my opinion. Joshua Mears, Outfield. Ranked in the system’s Top 10 by both MLB.com and Baseball America, Mears was drafted in 2019. His power is his calling card. He already has two home runs in three games this season in high-A, but has struck out in eight of his twelve at bats. As the top-rated prospect on my list and - in my opinion - the likelihood that the Twins prefer pitching, I think the chances of Mears being the player is small. Samuel Zavana, Outfield. Zavana checks in on BA’s list at #12, but missed MLB.com’s. Zavala fits the profile of what the Twins like with a scouting report that includes things like “regarded as one of the best pure hitters” in his signing class and having “long possessed a knack for finding the barrel.” The 17-year-old would make a ton of sense. But in trying to sleuth this out, Zavala will be playing in the complex league this year, so the Twins won't even get a chance to scout him between now and then. So if it were to be him, why not just include him in the original deal? Victor Acosta, Shortstop. Acosta, like Zavana, will be playing in a complex league this summer. Ranked #11 by MLB and #12 by BA, I put Acosta a notch above Zavana because he has more defensive value. But, again, if you can’t see him in the next month, wouldn’t you have wanted to get him into your complex as soon as possible? Robert Gasser, Pitcher. Gasser is ranked #9 on both sites after being selected in the Competitive Balance, B Round in the 2021 draft. After getting 15 innings of pro ball under his belt last year, Gasser, a lefty, made his High-A debut last week. It was brutal. Four walks, four hits, seven outs. I don’t think a single game is a reason the Twins wouldn’t trade for him though, I think it’s because the Padres would be less likely to include him on the list. The next guy is a complete wild-card who technically fits Doogie’s profile. Adrian Morejon, Pitcher. Morejan, 23, is a highly-regarded Cuban left-hander who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s a “non-roster” guy because he’s on the 60-day Injured List, so he wouldn’t require a 40-man move. Morejan has 16 games of MLB experience under his belt and spent the last five seasons ranked in Baseball America’s Top 100. While not expected to return to the mound until later this season, it’s been a year since his surgery. Being a PTBNL could just be a way of giving the Twins a chance to get a greater feel of how his recovery is going. Remember, this trade all came together very quickly. For what it's worth, even though there are over 100 potential players for this to be, I’d bet on it being one of these three over the field. Full disclosure: I like taking long odds. It’s not often successful. Victor Lizarraga, Pitcher. Signed out of Mexico last year and ranked #13 by MLB and #15 by BA, Lizarraga is pitching in Low-A ball at 18 this year. He would make a ton of sense as a lottery ticket in a trade such as this. He’s a fastball/curveball/changeup pitcher with shaky command. Kevin Kopps, Pitcher. Kopps, currently in AA, ranks #14 on BA’s list and #16 on MLB’s list. Drafted in the 3rd round last year, Kopps spread his 14 ⅔ innings over three levels, striking out 22 and notching three saves. Kopps is serving as a closer using one big weapon: a breaking ball that has been nearly unhittable. Some call it a cutter, some call it a slider. Baseball America calls it the best slider in the system. The Twins, if I had to guess, would deploy whatever it is in the same way they used Sergio Romo’s and Tyler Clippard’s sliders. Kopps, who turns 25 soon, has Tommy John in his rearview and could soon be a bullpen option for whatever team he is on. Jarlin Susana, Pitcher. Susana is ranked #18 by MLB.com and the just-turned-18-year-old has an impressive and imposing 6’ 6”, 235-pound frame. Signed in January by the Padres for $1.7 million, Susana has a big-time fastball that can touch 100 and a slider that is next best pitch (among the four he throws). So what separates him from the other complex league pitchers? Because of when he signed, he can’t be traded until later this month. ? Maybe it’s a coincidence. Or maybe Susana is the player to be named later. (The Padres also added many other international free agents in mid-January who become eligible to be traded later this month. Among them are two 16-year-old infielders, Yendry Rojas and Rosman Verdugo. Neither are as highly regarded as Susana, though. Rojas, from Cuba, is a very good hitter with decent size (6' 1", 190) and speed and Verdugo, from Mexico, was considered the top prospect from Mexico.) What do you think? Who do you prefer? View full article
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Twins Daily 2022 Draft Coverage, April 7
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Lesko was realllllllllyy good yesterday. There will be much more on him next week. As of today, I'd pick him at 8... but I think there's only a slim chance he'd be available.- 3 replies
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Happy Opening Week of Twins Baseball! As pro baseball gets into the swing of things, the amateur season continues and now starts to share the spotlight. We've got you covered on all things draft-related. For draft lovers, this week is going to be a focus on just a couple pieces of information that came out since our last update. Last Friday, Baseball America published their second mock draft of the spring. If you recall (or to save you from checking), they mocked the Twins selecting James Madison outfielder Chase DeLauter in their first version. DeLauter really struggled in the season’s first series against good competition, though he has seemed to right the ship (against lesser competition). He has dropped in the newest projection. Version 2.0 now has the Twins selecting Jacob Berry, a corner infielder from LSU. That would be an excellent value pick, considering he’s viewed as one of the top two college hitters in the draft (along with Cal Poly’s Brooks Lee). The current regime has placed an emphasis on college bats, so a potential Berry pick - which may frustrate some - would fall in line with what we’ve seen with picks like Aaron Sabato and Trevor Larnach. Speaking of Brooks Lee… Keith Law posted some scouting notes earlier this week at The Athletic. He really likes the aforementioned Lee, calling him “one of the safest bets at the top of the draft this year” though he offers the caveat that Lee doesn’t “offer the upside of the high school players in that same echelon.” Law also writes about Kevin Parada of Georgia Tech. Parada has gotten plenty of pub at Twins Daily in the last month and Law sees him as a “top 10 (pick) if the draft were held today, with a chance to get into the top five.” Jumping into my Top 10 this week are two new names: Jackson Holliday, a prep SS from Oklahoma who’s committed to Oklahoma State. He’s the son of Matt Holliday, the hitting coach at Oklahoma State, under head coach Robin Ventura. Daniel Susac, a catcher from Arizona. Jamie Cameron did a great job introducing him in his college baseball notebook earlier this week. Jeremy's Top 10 MLB Draft Prospects 1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 2.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) 4.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly 5.) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) (previously: 7) 6.) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU (previously: 5) 7.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech (previously: ? 8.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech (previously: 6) 9.) Andrew Susac, C, Arizona (previously unranked) 10.) Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma prep (Oklahoma State commit) OUT: Chase DeLauter, cOF, James Madison (previously: 9); Robert Moore, 2B, Arkansas (previously: 10) MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS Baseball America - v2.0 (4/1/22) / v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 200 (3/14/22) MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 100 The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22) ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22) Prospects Live v1.0 (1/4/22) View full article
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For draft lovers, this week is going to be a focus on just a couple pieces of information that came out since our last update. Last Friday, Baseball America published their second mock draft of the spring. If you recall (or to save you from checking), they mocked the Twins selecting James Madison outfielder Chase DeLauter in their first version. DeLauter really struggled in the season’s first series against good competition, though he has seemed to right the ship (against lesser competition). He has dropped in the newest projection. Version 2.0 now has the Twins selecting Jacob Berry, a corner infielder from LSU. That would be an excellent value pick, considering he’s viewed as one of the top two college hitters in the draft (along with Cal Poly’s Brooks Lee). The current regime has placed an emphasis on college bats, so a potential Berry pick - which may frustrate some - would fall in line with what we’ve seen with picks like Aaron Sabato and Trevor Larnach. Speaking of Brooks Lee… Keith Law posted some scouting notes earlier this week at The Athletic. He really likes the aforementioned Lee, calling him “one of the safest bets at the top of the draft this year” though he offers the caveat that Lee doesn’t “offer the upside of the high school players in that same echelon.” Law also writes about Kevin Parada of Georgia Tech. Parada has gotten plenty of pub at Twins Daily in the last month and Law sees him as a “top 10 (pick) if the draft were held today, with a chance to get into the top five.” Jumping into my Top 10 this week are two new names: Jackson Holliday, a prep SS from Oklahoma who’s committed to Oklahoma State. He’s the son of Matt Holliday, the hitting coach at Oklahoma State, under head coach Robin Ventura. Daniel Susac, a catcher from Arizona. Jamie Cameron did a great job introducing him in his college baseball notebook earlier this week. Jeremy's Top 10 MLB Draft Prospects 1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 2.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) 4.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly 5.) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) (previously: 7) 6.) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU (previously: 5) 7.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech (previously: ? 8.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech (previously: 6) 9.) Andrew Susac, C, Arizona (previously unranked) 10.) Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma prep (Oklahoma State commit) OUT: Chase DeLauter, cOF, James Madison (previously: 9); Robert Moore, 2B, Arkansas (previously: 10) MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS Baseball America - v2.0 (4/1/22) / v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 200 (3/14/22) MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 100 The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22) ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22) Prospects Live v1.0 (1/4/22)
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Twins Daily 2022 Draft Coverage, March 31
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Haven't tried to go in-depth anywhere but on the guys at the top of the draft. -
Twins Daily 2022 Draft Coverage, March 31
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
If my last-updated list went to 11, Collier would have been listed. -
As we inch closer to a mid-July draft, the baseball world has understandably been focused on Spring Training and an Opening Day that now is only a week away. A quick reminder, the Twins are currently scheduled to make the 8th and 48th picks. The trio of high schoolers who appear at nearly the top of every draft list - Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson and Elijah Green - are all proving they belong. As we get deeper into their seasons, and closer to the draft, there are a few things that are going to generate headlines: perceived preference for the teams at the top of the draft (how are the team's boards set and who are their big wigs seeing most frequently?) and bonus demands/team preference for these three players. Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada, who ranks as my number eight prospect currently, hit two more bombs on Tuesday and now has 10 on the year. He hadn’t homered since March 13 and struck out four times in the weekend series against North Carolina State, but Parada still has an awfully impressive 378/473/703 slash line with more walks (16) than strikeouts (12) on the year. Dylan Lesko is going to be an interesting follow. Lesko is strongly considered the best pitching prospect available, but he also comes from the group with the highest failure rate: right-handed prep pitchers. It seems like, in the recent past, nearly every team has had a no-doubt top-of-the-rotation prospect completely fail to live up to expectations. But the ceiling - and in this case the fastball/changeup combination - is going to be impossible for one team at the top of the draft to pass on. Full disclosure: No one is a bigger sucker for drafting this demographic than me. I was a big Kohl Stewart fan. I'm still a believer that Nick Bitsko, drafted 24th by the Rays in the 2020 draft, is going to be the real deal. As impressive as the three prep hitters are, I believe there's a chance that Lesko ends up the best player in the draft and as the draft gets closer, my rankings will probably reflect that. Jeremy's Top 10 MLB Draft Prospects My Top 10 remains unchanged from last week. 1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 2.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) 4.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly 5.) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU 6.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech 7.) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) 8.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech 9.) Chase DeLauter, cOF, James Madison 10.) Robert Moore, 2B, Arkansas MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS Baseball America - v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 200 (3/14/22) MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 100 The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22) ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22) Prospects Live v1.0 (1/4/22) View full article
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The trio of high schoolers who appear at nearly the top of every draft list - Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson and Elijah Green - are all proving they belong. As we get deeper into their seasons, and closer to the draft, there are a few things that are going to generate headlines: perceived preference for the teams at the top of the draft (how are the team's boards set and who are their big wigs seeing most frequently?) and bonus demands/team preference for these three players. Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada, who ranks as my number eight prospect currently, hit two more bombs on Tuesday and now has 10 on the year. He hadn’t homered since March 13 and struck out four times in the weekend series against North Carolina State, but Parada still has an awfully impressive 378/473/703 slash line with more walks (16) than strikeouts (12) on the year. Dylan Lesko is going to be an interesting follow. Lesko is strongly considered the best pitching prospect available, but he also comes from the group with the highest failure rate: right-handed prep pitchers. It seems like, in the recent past, nearly every team has had a no-doubt top-of-the-rotation prospect completely fail to live up to expectations. But the ceiling - and in this case the fastball/changeup combination - is going to be impossible for one team at the top of the draft to pass on. Full disclosure: No one is a bigger sucker for drafting this demographic than me. I was a big Kohl Stewart fan. I'm still a believer that Nick Bitsko, drafted 24th by the Rays in the 2020 draft, is going to be the real deal. As impressive as the three prep hitters are, I believe there's a chance that Lesko ends up the best player in the draft and as the draft gets closer, my rankings will probably reflect that. Jeremy's Top 10 MLB Draft Prospects My Top 10 remains unchanged from last week. 1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 2.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) 4.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly 5.) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU 6.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech 7.) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) 8.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech 9.) Chase DeLauter, cOF, James Madison 10.) Robert Moore, 2B, Arkansas MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS Baseball America - v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 200 (3/14/22) MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 100 The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22) ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22) Prospects Live v1.0 (1/4/22)
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How Soon Do the Twins Need a Fifth Starter?
Jeremy Nygaard replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I tend to think that the fifth starter is going to be some sort of Jax/Thorpe piggyback. Being able to carry extra players with allow the Twins (and every other team) to bring long-reliever-type guys up to eat innings. These guys - Jax and Thorpe included - will probably still be available out of the bullpen on most other days, but just be asked to each go three on the day the fifth starter is needed. -
The Draft will consist of 20 rounds completed across three days. Sunday, July 17: Rounds 1 and 2, compensatory and competitive balance rounds. Monday, July 18: Round 3 through 10. Tuesday, July 19: Rounds 11 through 20. MLB recently announced recipients of picks in the Competitive Balance rounds. The Twins received the second pick in Round B (following the second round). These picks are awarded based on a secret formula that includes revenue and winning percentage and market size. The fifteen picks that are awarded remain the only draft picks that can be traded. The Twins, however, are likely to lose that pick as a result of signing Carlos Correa. With some dust still to settle, the Twins are currently slotted to pick 8th and 48th. The lack of high-quality college pitching has been a thing all spring, but so has Ben Joyce’s fastball. Joyce is pumping 103 mph for the Tennessee Volunteers. Jamie Cameron also mentions Joyce in his College Notebook this week, so not to beat a dead horse since it's already been posted about here... but a fastball like that - anywhere - requires attention. Maria Torres of The Athletic goes in-depth on Joyce, who probably isn’t a Day One pick at this point, but - except under extreme conditions - helium is a gas and Joyce may have plenty of both by the time July comes. Speaking of helium, Torres also did a nice write-up of prep lefty Brandon Barriera. Barriera is not prototypically sized (6-1, 170), but is an analytics darling: the spin rate of his curveball is nearly elite compared to pitchers in the MLB. Barriera is ranked 15th by Baseball America and 21st by MLB.com but he doesn’t crack the Top 30 at The Athletic due to Law’s concerns about his ability to throw strikes. Jeremy's Top 10 MLB Draft Prospects I’m going to switch my Top 8 to a Top 10. There’s been some movement within it as well. 1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 2.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) There’s just too many already-legendary tales that you hear about these three to have anyone else included. 4.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly Lee dropped, but he continues to rake (batting .438) and will be an easy pick for a team looking to add a ready-soon shortstop to their system. 5.) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU There may be some questions about where he fits defensively, but the switch-hitter can hit and hit for power. The Twins love that. 6.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech 7.) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 8.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech 9.) Chase DeLauter, cOF, James Madison 10.) Robert Moore, 2B, Arkansas MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS Baseball America - v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 200 (3/14/22) MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 100 The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22) ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) Prospects Live v1.0 (1/24/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22)
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Major League Baseball officially announced details for this summer’s Draft late last week. The draft, for the second year, will coincide with MLB’s All-Star Week. While the All-Star Game festivities and draft will take place July 17-19 in Los Angeles, the Draft Combine will be in San Diego’s Petco Park from June 14-20. The Draft will consist of 20 rounds completed across three days. Sunday, July 17: Rounds 1 and 2, compensatory and competitive balance rounds. Monday, July 18: Round 3 through 10. Tuesday, July 19: Rounds 11 through 20. MLB recently announced recipients of picks in the Competitive Balance rounds. The Twins received the second pick in Round B (following the second round). These picks are awarded based on a secret formula that includes revenue and winning percentage and market size. The fifteen picks that are awarded remain the only draft picks that can be traded. The Twins, however, are likely to lose that pick as a result of signing Carlos Correa. With some dust still to settle, the Twins are currently slotted to pick 8th and 48th. The lack of high-quality college pitching has been a thing all spring, but so has Ben Joyce’s fastball. Joyce is pumping 103 mph for the Tennessee Volunteers. Jamie Cameron also mentions Joyce in his College Notebook this week, so not to beat a dead horse since it's already been posted about here... but a fastball like that - anywhere - requires attention. Maria Torres of The Athletic goes in-depth on Joyce, who probably isn’t a Day One pick at this point, but - except under extreme conditions - helium is a gas and Joyce may have plenty of both by the time July comes. Speaking of helium, Torres also did a nice write-up of prep lefty Brandon Barriera. Barriera is not prototypically sized (6-1, 170), but is an analytics darling: the spin rate of his curveball is nearly elite compared to pitchers in the MLB. Barriera is ranked 15th by Baseball America and 21st by MLB.com but he doesn’t crack the Top 30 at The Athletic due to Law’s concerns about his ability to throw strikes. Jeremy's Top 10 MLB Draft Prospects I’m going to switch my Top 8 to a Top 10. There’s been some movement within it as well. 1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 2.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) There’s just too many already-legendary tales that you hear about these three to have anyone else included. 4.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly Lee dropped, but he continues to rake (batting .438) and will be an easy pick for a team looking to add a ready-soon shortstop to their system. 5.) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU There may be some questions about where he fits defensively, but the switch-hitter can hit and hit for power. The Twins love that. 6.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech 7.) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 8.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech 9.) Chase DeLauter, cOF, James Madison 10.) Robert Moore, 2B, Arkansas MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS Baseball America - v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 200 (3/14/22) MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 100 The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22) ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) Prospects Live v1.0 (1/24/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22) View full article
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Baseball America keeps pumping out content, updating their Top 200 prospects in addition to their weekly draft stock watch pieces. One name that has helium that both Carlos Collazo of Baseball America and our own Jamie Cameron of TwinsDaily has mentioned is Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada. Parada is one of Collazo’s “notable movers” of the early baseball season. Maria Torres of The Athletic has also taken note. Parada’s been dominant offensively so far this season and should be in the mix for the Twins at #8, given their recent proclivity to deal away most of their notable catching depth. There are questions about his defense, but you’re going to get that with just about every catching prospect who can hit. Keith Law dropped his first Top 30 of the season. While the top four names are the same as mine, he drops some lesser-known names in the back half of his top 10 including Junior College third baseman Cameron Collier, a definite professional catcher in Logan Tanner of Mississippi State and, you guessed it, Parada. What he doesn’t list until 19th is his first college pitcher (Adam Mazur, Iowa). The lack of college pitching has always been a storyline for this draft. And nothing has happened to change that theory. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel calls the college pitching class “ about as bad as (he) can ever remember one being” in his newest piece. Though there is plenty of time between now and the still-unscheduled draft for players to shoot up draft boards, it is curious to see how this will impact teams' plans. Or may have this dearth of college pitching been a factor in the Guardians selecting college pitchers with 18 of the 21 picks last year? Or why the Twins took four college pitchers between the second and sixth round last year? (The Twins approach is way more common than the Guardians.) At a minimum, if a team finds a college pitcher they like more than what their perceived industry value is, does it get teams cutting under slot deals with those guys early to give them more money to take a shot at someone that’s considered less signable later? There are always a few unique things each year… and, right now, the lack of college pitching is a big one. No change to my Top 8, though there are a few names in contention. 1) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) - McDaniel mentions Jones in the same prospect realm as Bryce Harper, so thinking he might drop to #8 - for any reason besides money - is a pipe dream. 2) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly 3) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) 4) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 5) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU 6) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 7) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech 8 ) Chase DeLauter, cOF, James Madison MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS Baseball America - v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 200 (3/14/22) MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 100 The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22) ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) Prospects Live v1.0 (1/24/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22) MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email
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The last “draft update” came two weeks ago. But it feels like an eternity ago. Most importantly, Major League Baseball is back. And the Twins have been busy. There are so many Twin-centric things to talk about, yet the draft is quickly approaching and the Twins will be drafting in the Top 10. Baseball America keeps pumping out content, updating their Top 200 prospects in addition to their weekly draft stock watch pieces. One name that has helium that both Carlos Collazo of Baseball America and our own Jamie Cameron of TwinsDaily has mentioned is Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada. Parada is one of Collazo’s “notable movers” of the early baseball season. Maria Torres of The Athletic has also taken note. Parada’s been dominant offensively so far this season and should be in the mix for the Twins at #8, given their recent proclivity to deal away most of their notable catching depth. There are questions about his defense, but you’re going to get that with just about every catching prospect who can hit. Keith Law dropped his first Top 30 of the season. While the top four names are the same as mine, he drops some lesser-known names in the back half of his top 10 including Junior College third baseman Cameron Collier, a definite professional catcher in Logan Tanner of Mississippi State and, you guessed it, Parada. What he doesn’t list until 19th is his first college pitcher (Adam Mazur, Iowa). The lack of college pitching has always been a storyline for this draft. And nothing has happened to change that theory. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel calls the college pitching class “ about as bad as (he) can ever remember one being” in his newest piece. Though there is plenty of time between now and the still-unscheduled draft for players to shoot up draft boards, it is curious to see how this will impact teams' plans. Or may have this dearth of college pitching been a factor in the Guardians selecting college pitchers with 18 of the 21 picks last year? Or why the Twins took four college pitchers between the second and sixth round last year? (The Twins approach is way more common than the Guardians.) At a minimum, if a team finds a college pitcher they like more than what their perceived industry value is, does it get teams cutting under slot deals with those guys early to give them more money to take a shot at someone that’s considered less signable later? There are always a few unique things each year… and, right now, the lack of college pitching is a big one. No change to my Top 8, though there are a few names in contention. 1) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) - McDaniel mentions Jones in the same prospect realm as Bryce Harper, so thinking he might drop to #8 - for any reason besides money - is a pipe dream. 2) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly 3) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) 4) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 5) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU 6) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 7) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech 8 ) Chase DeLauter, cOF, James Madison MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS Baseball America - v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 200 (3/14/22) MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 100 The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22) ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) Prospects Live v1.0 (1/24/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22) MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email View full article
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Draft Changes As Result of New CBA
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I do not. But that list will have to be furnished to the clubs and they'll know that they will have to do a little more work on guys they draft off that list. It will probably not even move the needle for most teams, but there are teams - I know the Orioles have this reputation - that tend to find more concerning things in physicals than other teams. -
Draft Changes As Result of New CBA
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Was it that out of line? Guy became a mid-rotation starter... looking at other lists, they have Blackburn behind the likes of Deolis Guerra and Tyler Robertson. And the point wasn't that you can use this mechanism to find #1 prospects, just that draft-and-follows have existed before and that was how the Twins acquired Nick Blackburn, a name that many readers probably recognize. -
Draft Changes As Result of New CBA
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I'm assuming MLB will invite 300 players to a combine-sort of thing and those players will have their medicals looked into and approved before the draft begins. -
Draft Changes As Result of New CBA
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
That was my initial reaction too but the guys agreeing to those deals are not Top 300 prospects, so the rule wouldn't likely apply to them. -
At that Winter Meltdown, I challenged Garv to a game of darts. I fancy myself as a pretty good thrower of darts. It was the fastest game of darts I've ever been a part of. He cleared the cricket board in like 5 rounds and as I stood there with my mouth open, he turns and says, "I hit spots for a living."
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Draft Changes As Result of New CBA
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
With less minor league teams, the reduction of draft rounds make sense. More players stay in college or go to college. I would be surprised if they didn't come to an agreement. I know there's people on both sides, but it makes too much sense to not implement it. -
Draft Changes As Result of New CBA
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I'm not sure exactly what you're trying to say, but Baseball America ranked Blackburn as the organization's #1 prospect in 2008 and #56 overall in baseball. These facts are easily verifiable using Google search.

