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Jeremy Nygaard

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  1. If my link worked down below, I would refer you to that website... but it doesn't, so I've pasted the page and reformatted it so hopefully it looks ago below. Salaries are rounded to the nearest $100. Amounts are pro-rated when necessary. Players that are currently in the major leagues are listed with a salary that would account for them being in the major leagues for the rest of the season. Obviously, it will change with every roster move, but you get the points. [TABLE=width: 740] Pos Active Roster [TD=align: right]2012[/TD] [TD=align: right]2013[/TD] [TD=align: right]2014[/TD] [TD=align: right]2015[/TD] [TD=align: right]2016[/TD] [TD=align: right]2017[/TD] [TD=align: right]2018[/TD] C Joe Mauer [TD=align: right]$23,025,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$23,000,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$23,000,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$23,000,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$23,000,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$23,000,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$23,000,000[/TD] 1B Justin Morneau [TD=align: right]$14,000,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$14,000,000[/TD] 2B Jamey Carroll [TD=align: right]$2,750,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,750,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$250,000[/TD] 3B Danny Valencia [TD=align: right]$298,300[/TD] SS Brian Dozier [TD=align: right]$398,700[/TD] LF Josh Willingham [TD=align: right]$7,000,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$7,000,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$7,000,000[/TD] CF Denard Span [TD=align: right]$3,000,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$4,750,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$6,500,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$500,000[/TD] RF/CF Ben Revere [TD=align: right]$402,000[/TD] SUPER 2? [/TD] DH/C Ryan Doumit [TD=align: right]$3,000,000 [TD=align: right]$3,500,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,500,000[/TD] 2B/SS Alexi Casilla [TD=align: right]$1,382,500[/TD] ARB 3 C Drew Butera [TD=align: right]$414,300[/TD] SUPER 2? ARB1 OF Darin Mastroianni [TD=align: right]$390,800[/TD] LSP Scott Diamond [TD=align: right]$398,700[/TD] SP Sam Deduno [TD=align: right]$241,300[/TD] LP Brian Duensing [TD=align: right]$515,000[/TD] ARB1 ARB2 SP Cole De Vries [TD=align: right]$291,100[/TD] SP Nick Blackburn [TD=align: right]$4,750,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$5,500,000[/TD] $ - LRP Glen Perkins [TD=align: right]$1,550,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$2,500,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,750,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,750,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$300,000[/TD] RP Jared Burton [TD=align: right]$750,000[/TD] ARB3 RP Alex Burnett [TD=align: right]$490,000[/TD] ARB1 ARB2 P Jeff Manship [TD=align: right]$262,300[/TD] RP Jeff Gray [TD=align: right]$485,000[/TD] ARB1 LRP Tyler Robertson [TD=align: right]$270,200[/TD] RP Casey Fien [TD=align: right]$246,600[/TD] P Luis Perdomo [TD=align: right]$186,200[/TD] Pos 15-day DL 3B Trevor Plouffe [TD=align: right]$485,000[/TD] SUPER 2? RP Anthony Swarzak [TD=align: right]$487,500[/TD] ARB1 RP Matt Capps [TD=align: right]$4,500,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$250,000[/TD] Pos 60-day DL SP Scott Baker [TD=align: right]$6,500,000[/TD] $ - SP Carl Pavano [TD=align: right]$8,500,000[/TD] SP P.J. Walters [TD=align: right]$390,800[/TD] Pos Other obligations LSP Francisco Liriano [TD=align: right]$3,426,200[/TD] P Jason Marquis [TD=align: right]$2,659,000[/TD] P Joel Zumaya [TD=align: right]$850,000[/TD] 2B/SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka [TD=align: right]$3,000,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,000,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]$250,000[/TD] 1B Chris Parmelee [TD=align: right]$186,200[/TD] RP Kyle Waldrop [TD=align: right]$183,600[/TD] SP Liam Hendriks [TD=align: right]$125,900[/TD] LP Matt Maloney [TD=align: right]$94,900[/TD] 1B/3B Sean Burroughs [TD=align: right]$83,200[/TD] CF Clete Thomas [TD=align: right]$78,700[/TD] RP Lester Oliveros [TD=align: right]$5,200[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]TOTAL[/TD] $98,054,200 $67,250,000 $44,250,000 $27,250,000 $23,300,000 $23,000,000 $23,000,000 [/TABLE]
  2. Tom Brunansky's son, Jason, just exhausted his eligibility at Kansas, and he's not in the Twins organization (yet).
  3. Yeah, undrafted, exhausted his college eligibility, dad's a pro scout for the Twins. All of those things.
  4. VodkaDave- I'm not gonna argue with you about Hicks, all of your points are extremely valid. He could be an average-above average major league center fielder if he stays on the Hunter/Span course. One thing that stuck out to me was that he was projected to be a middle-of-the-lineup hitter, but couldn't stick. His stuff can play as a leadoff guy, without a doubt, but if his hit/power tools both played up, he's a #3 hitter and that's even better. mlhouse- The bottom have of the rankings are primarily guys ranked as having a CEILING as platoon or utility guys, not regulars. The risk is how likely they are to reach that ceiling, not how likely they are to make the majors. Reaching their ceiling of 45 means they might not even get a shot. YHIMH- I would rank Revere as "safe". I would rank Parmelee, Dozier, Escobar as "low". What you see is essentially what you get. I think Arcia can get better yet. You don't see a lot of "safes" or "lows" league-wide because those prospect-types are getting a shot in the big leagues. We could argue the inclusion of relief pitchers completely. All of the Twins current bullpen came through (most of) the system as starters. I have Hermsen at his grade because I'm convinced he'll have a shot to show he's a 4/5 at the major league level. That's his ceiling, can he make it there? clutter- Mata has one pitch right now so I think he'll be a bullpen guy. With one pitch, he can't be much more than a back-end guy. If one of his other pitches comes around, he moves up.
  5. Interesting. I thought about doing that, but didn't know how bonuses worked into it... so thought it wouldn't be worth it. Glad someone did the work though.
  6. Seth will be in Beloit Thursday-Sunday. I'll be there Friday and Saturday. Hopefully we'll be able to give you a good, concrete answer after that. It was a weight-loss supplement, not HGH, so I think he can still make a name out of himself. The fact that his numbers are translating from E-town to Beloit are encouraging, but it's early...
  7. Buster Olney just tweeted that qualifying offers will be worth $13.3-13.4 million instead of the $12.4-12.5 that was expected. Wow. Liriano might be worth that... over 2 years.
  8. If any of you out there follow College Football recruiting, the name Shaq Thompson might be familiar. He goes by Green-Thompson now and he was a five-star recruit out of the state of California (highest-ranked prospect in the state) who agreed to play safety at Washington University (for probably three years) on his way to the NFL. Funny thing, though. The Red Sox saw this 6'2, 210 lb freak and drafted him in the 18th round of the baseball draft. He signed and headed down to Fort Myers to join their GCL team, before heading to Seattle to join the football team for the fall. He couldn't get out soon enough. Final line: In 13 games, 39 at-bats, 37 strikeouts (!), 3 runs, 8 walks, 0 hits, 1 stolen base, 1 caught stealing. An OPS of .170. Unreal.
  9. I like that Parmelee has cut down his K-rate. I didn't include him just because I don't think he'll be on the list in the winter and wanted to minimize graduations so that the names wouldn't change as much as the ranking... just my personal preference. I think his value is higher as a 1B, though, than a RF.
  10. The Twins ranked 18th entering the year (according to BA). Their #2 (and #100 overall) Benson has been disappointing. Michael (#6) has not performed. Hendriks (7), Parmelee (9) and Dozier (10) all graduated. Salcedo (16), Soliman (23) and Wimmers (25) have all had injuries. The addition to Buxton and Berrios will help. And improvements by guys will help too. I just don't think, when viewing the big picture of the MLB, the Twins farm is Top 10... or in the discussion. When February rolls around, I'll either be proven right or wrong, but until then... let's keep debating.
  11. greengoblinrulz: Yes, unfortunately, you're wrong. The Twins won't be Top 10. I'm expecting ESPN and BA to put them somewhere between 16-22. They're top 6-7 is really good... the problem is between 8-20 where there is a lack of high-ceiling players (60/Extremes).
  12. Lots of good feedback... VodkaDave: Hicks needs to show power. That's the missing tool. #3-6, really, though, aren't separated by much. enge: I would rank Parmelee as 50/Low (between Kepler and Benson) and Escobar as 45/Low (in between Goodrum and Hermsen). Dozier (45/Low) would slot in before Goodrum and Hendriks (50/Medium) right before Benson... basically all in that 10-15 range. gunnarther: #5 on Berrios is aggressive. I said before the draft I thought he could be a #2 starter... I didn't want to back off of that now. Matt VS: There are not many players labeled "safe". (I think only Matt Moore.) Bryce Harper and Mike Trout were "low"... many others that have MLB experience, but are still prospects are low. BA had Hendriks and Doyle as "low". I had Dinkelman as a 35/low, but he didn't make the cut. As far as purchasing the handbook, you would never regret it. Jeff P: Polanco is hitting now (100 ABs in the Appy League), but has never hit over .250 before. The Appy League is a hitter's league and it's a small sample size. He needs to sustain. Hitting in Beloit would be a good continuation of this year. The difference between Polanco and Goodrum has a lot to with their body builds. twinstalker: 55/Medium and 60/High are very similar, I went between the two for Hicks. Change those two, his ranking doesn't change, imo. kab: Herrmann is a good defensive OF. So when your 4th OF and your 2nd (or 3rd) catcher can be the same person, there is value. I had Minier rated much higher in my initial list. Way higher... but I want him to play in a game before I rank him too high. I agree with you though. thrylos: It's more than just the number though. I like to think of the risk factor as the floor. So Benson is 50/45, Hicks is 55/50, Arcia is 60/55, Rosario is 65/55, Buxton is 70/55. You can make a case that Benson could be higher. I've never been a huge believer. We can call Hicks 60/high (or 60/50), but I still think Arcia is a safer bet to reach a similar ceiling (albeit much different skills). But all is very debatable. Burris is a reliever with control issues. Maybe he's too high. Melotakis, if he stays in the pen, which is expended, lowers his ceiling. Boyd and Bard are rated as guys that will have to pitch out of the rotation. Funny though, all four of those guys I had a hard time placing. seans - Wheeler and Hermsen are back of the rotation guys for sure. Innings-eaters, which is exactly where I rate them. I think Wheeler can improve cause he's a big body. A velo increase isn't out of the question and the K-rate could come up. If not, yeah, he's a #5. I wouldn't argue with you about Buxton being #1. I had Wimmers higher, but TJ surgery is going to set him back. He was a 50/Medium (which rated him in the 12-13 ranger)... too many question made him a 50/High. Again, thanks for all the feeback... it's hard to argue with any of the points that were made.
  13. If that were the case, he'd be much lower. :\ Fixed now. You could make all those arguments and I wouldn't fight you on them. But that's why prospect lists are fun!
  14. Thanks for all the feedback. Santana, Walker and Vargas were all guys that were moved down in my last edit. #15-27 aren't separated by much and I tried not to overvalue what Vargas has done over the last two weeks. If he continues this tear, he'll move up. Felix Jorge was omitted. [TABLE=width: 395] [TD=class: xl66, width: 29]P[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 35][/TD] [TD=class: xl72, width: 116]Jorge, Felix[/TD] [TD=class: xl73, width: 34][/TD] [TD=class: xl74, width: 34][/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 48]55 [/TD] [TD=class: xl70, width: 48]Extreme[/TD] [TD=class: xl69, width: 51]1/24/94 [/TD] [TD=class: xl66, width: 29][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 35][/TD] [TD=class: xl72, width: 116][/TD] [TD=class: xl73, width: 34][/TD] [TD=class: xl74, width: 34][/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 48][/TD] [TD=class: xl70, width: 48][/TD] [TD=class: xl69, width: 51][/TD] [/TABLE] He should slot in at #21, between Boer and Walker. I'm very high on Berrios. He might not have the build of a Jose Fernandez (Miami), but I could see him shooting up prospect rankings in a similar fashion. Some aren't convinced he can start, that's never been a question for me. I thought he could have been drafted as high as 15 or 20. Kepler vs Harrison argument is valid. Does Kepler's recent power surge continue? I changed his risk from "extreme" to "high" recently, so no doubt he's on the rise. I think Herrmann's ceiling is of a platoon player - that's where he slotted in - and that you're undervaluing his defense.
  15. You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?865-My-Top-50-(plus-1)-Twins-Prospects-August-1-Edition
  16. One of my favorite days of the year is the day I open my mailbox and see a cardboard box just big enough to hold the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. The first thing I do is read each of the 30 capsules about the Twins prospects. Then I proceed to read each of the other 870 reports in the book, usually a few times. This year they added a new feature: the BA Grade along with the Risk Factor. Essentially, it makes it possible to compare all 900 prospects. If you want a general idea of where Miguel Sano would rank in the Rangers system, you take his grade (70/high) and find where that would fit (below all the other 70s – only Profar at #1 – and higher than all the other “high risks” – Leonys Martin at #4). He would slot in somewhere between Profar and Martin, most likely in between Martin Perez (65/medium) and Mike Olt (60/medium).[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] They have an in-depth explanation of the BA Grades as well as the Risk Factors, but I’m going to tell you how I interpret it and how I use it to rank the Twins prospects. (Note these are my grades and risks, not BA’s.) All players are ranked on the 20-80 scale. This number would indicate a player’s ceiling. 80 – Once-in-a-Lifetime prospects. These are your Bryce Harpers, Josh Hamiltons, Ken Griffey Jrs… and not much in between. 75 – These are your franchise players and Ace starters. They’re out there… and the Twins have one (Joe Mauer) and traded one (Johan Santana), though Santana wouldn’t rank here anymore. 70 – The guys you expect to hear named to the All-Star game every year. When Justin Morneau was in his prime, he fits here. Staff aces, but not necessarily true “aces”. 65 – These would be your top-of-the-rotation starters and borderline all-stars. When Michael Cuddyer was keeping the Twins together last year, I would place him here; most of the time though, he’s a… 60 – “First-division regulars” (Denard Span), “middle-of-the-rotation starters” (lacks a second plus-pitch), or stud closers. 55 – Guys that look like they could be first-division regulars but lack a tool or two (Ben Revere) or a pitcher that doesn’t have it together all the time. 50 – This is where most players fit – second-division regulars, 8th inning set-up guys or your best #4 pitchers. 45 – These would be platoon or utility guys (Jamey Carroll) or #4/5 starters (who can eat innings), middle relievers. 40 – This is where your #5 starters go, back-up position players or relief specialists. 35 – Long-relief/low-leverage relief pitchers or situation position players (defensive replacement, pinch runner, pinch hitter). 30 – AAA players and I hope not to rank any guys here. As far as the Risk Factor goes, it’s pretty simple. “Safe” means the player is at their ceiling and ready to contribute. “Low” means that the big leagues is in their future and they’re very close to their ceiling. “Medium” means that the tools are there, but this is an achievable gap between tools and MLB skills. “High” means there is still lots of projection. “Extreme” means professional baseball is new or there is a significant injury to overcome. Similar to how things are in the Prospect Handbook, not all players with the same number are ranked together. Likewise, players with the same risk aren’t necessarily ranked together. BA’s preseason #2 Twins prospect, Joe Benson, is a 55/medium. Max Kepler, also a 55, is ranked #20 due his risk being “extreme”. Their ceiling is similar, but their “floors” are much different. Kepler is also ranked below a number of players with a lower ceiling. Why? Because their risk factor is much less. The numbers mentioned above are purely for the purpose of examples. My rankings/grades may be much different, but at least you get the idea. I am not including players that won’t be considered a prospect at year’s end (or that I don’t think will), such as Chris Parmelee, Liam Hendriks, Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar. I’ve also included, in parenthesis, my pre-season ranking, if they were in the Top 10. Only Liam Hendriks, who ranked #6 on my preseason list, has graduated off. This is a Top 50 and I waited until after the deadline to include players that were acquired… but I wanted Albers at 50, so it’s going to be a Top 50 plus 1 to include Pedro Hernandez #41-50 50. Andrew Albers, LP, 35/Medium, 10/6/85 49. Josh Burris, P, 45/Extreme, 11/28/91 48. Caleb Thielbar, LRP, 40/Medium, 1/31/87 47. Evan Bigley, OF, 40/Medium, 3/9/87 46. Deolis Guerra, RP, 40/High, 4/17/89 45. Austin Malinowski, LSP, 45/Extreme, 11/30/92 44. Romy Jimenez, OF, 45/Extreme, 5/14/91 43. Jorge Polanco, SS, 45/Extreme, 7/5/93 42. Angel Mata, SP, 45/Extreme, 12/3/92 41. Nate Roberts, OF, 45/High, 2/25/89 Of note: If Polanco shows he can hit, he will move back up prospect lists thanks to his defensive prowess. Jimenez has had a great month or so, but hasn't played much otherwise. Roberts has a knack for getting on base, but will have to stay healthy to show other tools are playable. #31-40 40. Tyler Duffey, P, 45/High, 12/27/90 39. Javier Pimentel, SS, 50/Extreme, 3/13/94 38. Miguel Gonzalez, P, 50/Extreme, 10/12/94 37. Angel Morales, OF, 45/High, 11/24/89 36. Michael Tonkin, RP, 45/High, 11/19/89 35. Daniel Ortiz, OF, 45/High, 1/5/90 34. D.J. Baxendale, SP, 45/High, 12/8/90 33. Daniel Santana, SS, 45/High, 11/7/90 32. Carlos Gutierrez, RP, 45/High, 9/22/86 31. J.D. Williams, OF, 50/Extreme, 11/20/91 Of note: Morales and Gutierrez, both top-10 prospects once, need to get healthy and prove they belong. J.D. Williams, who is one of the fastest players in the system, needs to show he’s a baseball player, not just fast. Baxendale is a starting pitcher to keep your eye on. #21-30 30. Zach Jones, P, 45/High, 12/4/90 29. J.T. Chargois, RP, 45/High, 12/3/90 28. Pedro Florimon, SS, 45/Medium, 12/10/86 x. Pedro Hernandez, LP, 45/Medium, 4/12/89 27. Dereck Rodriguez, OF, 50/Extreme, 6/5/92 26. Amaurys Minier, SS, 50/Extreme, 1/30/96 25. Kennys Vargas, 1B, 50/Extreme, 8/1/90 24. Alex Wimmers, P, 50/High, 11/1/88 23. Adam Walker, OF, 50/High, 10/18/91 22 (7). Adrian Salcedo, P, 50/High, 4/24/91 21. Mason Melotakis, LP, 50/High, 6/28/91 Of note: All of these names are intriguing. The pitchers – especially Jones, Chargois and Melotakis who could be huge movers with more experience – all have potential. Minier will debut next year. Vargas has lots of raw power. #11-20 20. Madison Boer, P, 50/High, 11/9/89 Struggling in the hi-A rotation, may have to go to bullpen to succeed. 19. Corey Williams, LRP, 50/High, 7/4/90 Lefty has struggled with consistency, can still fill a back-of-bullpen role. 18. Luke Bard, P, 50/High, 11/13/90 Recently promoted to E-Town, should get a chance to start. 17. Levi Michael, SS, 50/High, 2/9/91 Young for his level, Michael hasn’t hit. 16. Chris Herrmann, C/OF, 45/Medium, 11/24/87 Versatile defender has shown he can hit a little bit. 15. Jason Wheeler, P, 50/High, 10/27/90 Big-body who has thrown a ton of innings. 14. Matt Summers, P, 50/High, 8/17/89 Now only focused on pitching, watching his profile rise. 13. Hudson Boyd, P, 55/Extreme, 10/18/92 Has pitched well over his short professional career. 12. B.J. Hermsen, P, 45/Medium, 12/1/89 Not what you’d expect from his frame, but throws strikes and gets outs. 11 (9). Niko Goodrum, SS, 55/Extreme, 2/28/92 Great athlete getting another shot in Appy League. #1-10 10 (8). Joe Benson, OF, 50/Medium, 3/5/88 Down year, but glove still profiles as plus. 9. Max Kepler, OF, 55/High, 2/10/93 Filling out, could make lots of noise in next couple of years. 8 (4). Kyle Gibson, P, 55/Medium, 10/23/87 Coming back from TJ surgery; hopes to fill a rotation spot when healthy. 7 (10). Travis Harrison, 3B, 60/Extreme, 10/17/92 Big power from right side of plate; struggles defensively and may move to 1B. 6 (3). Aaron Hicks, OF, 55/Medium, 10/2/89 Switch-hitting starting to take (finally); super arm/defender in CF. 5. J.O. Berrios, P, 60/Extreme, 5/27/94 Excelling in GCL; dominant stuff. 4 (5). Eddie Rosario, 2B, 65/High, 9/28/91 Learning 2B, but real offensive threat with “quick-through-the-zone” bat. 3 (2). Oswaldo Arcia, OF, 60/Medium, 5/9/91 Pure hitter that is better in the OF than he looks. 2. Byron Buxton, OF, 70/Extreme, 12/18/93 Fast, super athlete, cannon arm, who needs to hit. If he hits with power, look out. 1 (1). Miguel Sano, 3B, 70/High, 5/11/93 Strikeout/defensive questions remain. No question about raw power – best in minor leagues. What do you think? Who is too high? Who is too low? Who did I forget entirely? My next addition will come out sometime after the calendar turns.
  17. One of my favorite days of the year is the day I open my mailbox and see a cardboard box just big enough to hold the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. The first thing I do is read each of the 30 capsules about the Twins prospects. Then I proceed to read each of the other 870 reports in the book, usually a few times. This year they added a new feature: the BA Grade along with the Risk Factor. Essentially, it makes it possible to compare all 900 prospects. If you want a general idea of where Miguel Sano would rank in the Rangers system, you take his grade (70/high) and find where that would fit (below all the other 70s – only Profar at #1 – and higher than all the other “high risks” – Leonys Martin at #4). He would slot in somewhere between Profar and Martin, most likely in between Martin Perez (65/medium) and Mike Olt (60/medium). They have an in-depth explanation of the BA Grades as well as the Risk Factors, but I’m going to tell you how I interpret it and how I use it to rank the Twins prospects. (Note these are my grades and risks, not BA’s.) All players are ranked on the 20-80 scale. This number would indicate a player’s ceiling. 80 – Once-in-a-Lifetime prospects. These are your Bryce Harpers, Josh Hamiltons, Ken Griffey Jrs… and not much in between. 75 – These are your franchise players and Ace starters. They’re out there… and the Twins have one (Joe Mauer) and traded one (Johan Santana), though Santana wouldn’t rank here anymore. 70 – The guys you expect to hear named to the All-Star game every year. When Justin Morneau was in his prime, he fits here. Staff aces, but not necessarily true “aces”. 65 – These would be your top-of-the-rotation starters and borderline all-stars. When Michael Cuddyer was keeping the Twins together last year, I would place him here; most of the time though, he’s a… 60 – “First-division regulars” (Denard Span), “middle-of-the-rotation starters” (lacks a second plus-pitch), or stud closers. 55 – Guys that look like they could be first-division regulars but lack a tool or two (Ben Revere) or a pitcher that doesn’t have it together all the time. 50 – This is where most players fit – second-division regulars, 8th inning set-up guys or your best #4 pitchers. 45 – These would be platoon or utility guys (Jamey Carroll) or #4/5 starters (who can eat innings), middle relievers. 40 – This is where your #5 starters go, back-up position players or relief specialists. 35 – Long-relief/low-leverage relief pitchers or situation position players (defensive replacement, pinch runner, pinch hitter). 30 – AAA players and I hope not to rank any guys here. As far as the Risk Factor goes, it’s pretty simple. “Safe” means the player is at their ceiling and ready to contribute. “Low” means that the big leagues is in their future and they’re very close to their ceiling. “Medium” means that the tools are there, but this is an achievable gap between tools and MLB skills. “High” means there is still lots of projection. “Extreme” means professional baseball is new or there is a significant injury to overcome. Similar to how things are in the Prospect Handbook, not all players with the same number are ranked together. Likewise, players with the same risk aren’t necessarily ranked together. BA’s preseason #2 Twins prospect, Joe Benson, is a 55/medium. Max Kepler, also a 55, is ranked #20 due his risk being “extreme”. Their ceiling is similar, but their “floors” are much different. Kepler is also ranked below a number of players with a lower ceiling. Why? Because their risk factor is much less. The numbers mentioned above are purely for the purpose of examples. My rankings/grades may be much different, but at least you get the idea. I am not including players that won’t be considered a prospect at year’s end (or that I don’t think will), such as Chris Parmelee, Liam Hendriks, Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar. I’ve also included, in parenthesis, my pre-season ranking, if they were in the Top 10. Only Liam Hendriks, who ranked #6 on my preseason list, has graduated off. This is a Top 50 and I waited until after the deadline to include players that were acquired… but I wanted Albers at 50, so it’s going to be a Top 50 plus 1 to include Pedro Hernandez #41-50 50. Andrew Albers, LP, 35/Medium, 10/6/85 49. Josh Burris, P, 45/Extreme, 11/28/91 48. Caleb Thielbar, LRP, 40/Medium, 1/31/87 47. Evan Bigley, OF, 40/Medium, 3/9/87 46. Deolis Guerra, RP, 40/High, 4/17/89 45. Austin Malinowski, LSP, 45/Extreme, 11/30/92 44. Romy Jimenez, OF, 45/Extreme, 5/14/91 43. Jorge Polanco, SS, 45/Extreme, 7/5/93 42. Angel Mata, SP, 45/Extreme, 12/3/92 41. Nate Roberts, OF, 45/High, 2/25/89 Of note: If Polanco shows he can hit, he will move back up prospect lists thanks to his defensive prowess. Jimenez has had a great month or so, but hasn't played much otherwise. Roberts has a knack for getting on base, but will have to stay healthy to show other tools are playable. #31-40 40. Tyler Duffey, P, 45/High, 12/27/90 39. Javier Pimentel, SS, 50/Extreme, 3/13/94 38. Miguel Gonzalez, P, 50/Extreme, 10/12/94 37. Angel Morales, OF, 45/High, 11/24/89 36. Michael Tonkin, RP, 45/High, 11/19/89 35. Daniel Ortiz, OF, 45/High, 1/5/90 34. D.J. Baxendale, SP, 45/High, 12/8/90 33. Daniel Santana, SS, 45/High, 11/7/90 32. Carlos Gutierrez, RP, 45/High, 9/22/86 31. J.D. Williams, OF, 50/Extreme, 11/20/91 Of note: Morales and Gutierrez, both top-10 prospects once, need to get healthy and prove they belong. J.D. Williams, who is one of the fastest players in the system, needs to show he’s a baseball player, not just fast. Baxendale is a starting pitcher to keep your eye on. #21-30 30. Zach Jones, P, 45/High, 12/4/90 29. J.T. Chargois, RP, 45/High, 12/3/90 28. Pedro Florimon, SS, 45/Medium, 12/10/86 x. Pedro Hernandez, LP, 45/Medium, 4/12/89 27. Dereck Rodriguez, OF, 50/Extreme, 6/5/92 26. Amaurys Minier, SS, 50/Extreme, 1/30/96 25. Kennys Vargas, 1B, 50/Extreme, 8/1/90 24. Alex Wimmers, P, 50/High, 11/1/88 23. Adam Walker, OF, 50/High, 10/18/91 22 (7). Adrian Salcedo, P, 50/High, 4/24/91 21. Mason Melotakis, LP, 50/High, 6/28/91 Of note: All of these names are intriguing. The pitchers – especially Jones, Chargois and Melotakis who could be huge movers with more experience – all have potential. Minier will debut next year. Vargas has lots of raw power. #11-20 20. Madison Boer, P, 50/High, 11/9/89 Struggling in the hi-A rotation, may have to go to bullpen to succeed. 19. Corey Williams, LRP, 50/High, 7/4/90 Lefty has struggled with consistency, can still fill a back-of-bullpen role. 18. Luke Bard, P, 50/High, 11/13/90 Recently promoted to E-Town, should get a chance to start. 17. Levi Michael, SS, 50/High, 2/9/91 Young for his level, Michael hasn’t hit. 16. Chris Herrmann, C/OF, 45/Medium, 11/24/87 Versatile defender has shown he can hit a little bit. 15. Jason Wheeler, P, 50/High, 10/27/90 Big-body who has thrown a ton of innings. 14. Matt Summers, P, 50/High, 8/17/89 Now only focused on pitching, watching his profile rise. 13. Hudson Boyd, P, 55/Extreme, 10/18/82 Has pitched well over his short professional career. 12. B.J. Hermsen, P, 45/Medium, 12/1/89 Not what you’d expect from his frame, but throws strikes and gets outs. 11 (9). Niko Goodrum, SS, 55/Extreme, 2/28/92 Great athlete getting another shot in Appy League. #1-10 10 (8). Joe Benson, OF, 50/Medium, 3/5/88 Down year, but glove still profiles as plus. 9. Max Kepler, OF, 55/High, 2/10/93 Filling out, could make lots of noise in next couple of years. 8 (4). Kyle Gibson, P, 55/Medium, 10/23/87 Coming back from TJ surgery; hopes to fill a rotation spot when healthy. 7 (10). Travis Harrison, 3B, 60/Extreme, 10/17/92 Big power from right side of plate; struggles defensively and may move to 1B. 6 (3). Aaron Hicks, OF, 55/Medium, 10/2/89 Switch-hitting starting to take (finally); super arm/defender in CF. 5. J.O. Berrios, P, 60/Extreme, 5/27/94 Excelling in GCL; dominant stuff. 4 (5). Eddie Rosario, 2B, 65/High, 9/28/91 Learning 2B, but real offensive threat with “quick-through-the-zone” bat. 3 (2). Oswaldo Arcia, OF, 60/Medium, 5/9/91 Pure hitter that is better in the OF than he looks. 2. Byron Buxton, OF, 70/Extreme, 12/18/93 Fast, super athlete, cannon arm, who needs to hit. If he hits with power, look out. 1 (1). Miguel Sano, 3B, 70/High, 5/11/93 Strikeout/defensive questions remain. No question about raw power – best in minor leagues. What do you think? Who is too high? Who is too low? Who did I forget entirely? My next addition will come out sometime after the calendar turns.
  18. One of my favorite days of the year is the day I open my mailbox and see a cardboard box just big enough to hold the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. The first thing I do is read each of the 30 capsules about the Twins prospects. Then I proceed to read each of the other 870 reports in the book, usually a few times. This year they added a new feature: the BA Grade along with the Risk Factor. Essentially, it makes it possible to compare all 900 prospects. If you want a general idea of where Miguel Sano would rank in the Rangers system, you take his grade (70/high) and find where that would fit (below all the other 70s – only Profar at #1 – and higher than all the other “high risks” – Leonys Martin at #4). He would slot in somewhere between Profar and Martin, most likely in between Martin Perez (65/medium) and Mike Olt (60/medium). They have an in-depth explanation of the BA Grades as well as the Risk Factors, but I’m going to tell you how I interpret it and how I use it to rank the Twins prospects. (Note these are my grades and risks, not BA’s.) All players are ranked on the 20-80 scale. This number would indicate a player’s ceiling. 80 – Once-in-a-Lifetime prospects. These are your Bryce Harpers, Josh Hamiltons, Ken Griffey Jrs… and not much in between. 75 – These are your franchise players and Ace starters. They’re out there… and the Twins have one (Joe Mauer) and traded one (Johan Santana), though Santana wouldn’t rank here anymore. 70 – The guys you expect to hear named to the All-Star game every year. When Justin Morneau was in his prime, he fits here. Staff aces, but not necessarily true “aces”. 65 – These would be your top-of-the-rotation starters and borderline all-stars. When Michael Cuddyer was keeping the Twins together last year, I would place him here; most of the time though, he’s a… 60 – “First-division regulars” (Denard Span), “middle-of-the-rotation starters” (lacks a second plus-pitch), or stud closers. 55 – Guys that look like they could be first-division regulars but lack a tool or two (Ben Revere) or a pitcher that doesn’t have it together all the time. 50 – This is where most players fit – second-division regulars, 8th inning set-up guys or your best #4 pitchers. 45 – These would be platoon or utility guys (Jamey Carroll) or #4/5 starters (who can eat innings), middle relievers. 40 – This is where your #5 starters go, back-up position players or relief specialists. 35 – Long-relief/low-leverage relief pitchers or situation position players (defensive replacement, pinch runner, pinch hitter). 30 – AAA players and I hope not to rank any guys here. As far as the Risk Factor goes, it’s pretty simple. “Safe” means the player is at their ceiling and ready to contribute. “Low” means that the big leagues is in their future and they’re very close to their ceiling. “Medium” means that the tools are there, but this is an achievable gap between tools and MLB skills. “High” means there is still lots of projection. “Extreme” means professional baseball is new or there is a significant injury to overcome. Similar to how things are in the Prospect Handbook, not all players with the same number are ranked together. Likewise, players with the same risk aren’t necessarily ranked together. BA’s preseason #2 Twins prospect, Joe Benson, is a 55/medium. Max Kepler, also a 55, is ranked #20 due his risk being “extreme”. Their ceiling is similar, but their “floors” are much different. Kepler is also ranked below a number of players with a lower ceiling. Why? Because their risk factor is much less. The numbers mentioned above are purely for the purpose of examples. My rankings/grades may be much different, but at least you get the idea. I am not including players that won’t be considered a prospect at year’s end (or that I don’t think will), such as Chris Parmelee, Liam Hendriks, Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar. I’ve also included, in parenthesis, my pre-season ranking, if they were in the Top 10. Only Liam Hendriks, who ranked #6 on my preseason list, has graduated off. This is a Top 50 and I waited until after the deadline to include players that were acquired… but I wanted Albers at 50, so it’s going to be a Top 50 plus 1 to include Pedro Hernandez #41-50 50. Andrew Albers, LP, 35/Medium, 10/6/85 49. Josh Burris, P, 45/Extreme, 11/28/91 48. Caleb Thielbar, LRP, 40/Medium, 1/31/87 47. Evan Bigley, OF, 40/Medium, 3/9/87 46. Deolis Guerra, RP, 40/High, 4/17/89 45. Austin Malinowski, LSP, 45/Extreme, 11/30/92 44. Romy Jimenez, OF, 45/Extreme, 5/14/91 43. Jorge Polanco, SS, 45/Extreme, 7/5/93 42. Angel Mata, SP, 45/Extreme, 12/3/92 41. Nate Roberts, OF, 45/High, 2/25/89 Of note: If Polanco shows he can hit, he will move back up prospect lists thanks to his defensive prowess. Jimenez has had a great month or so, but hasn't played much otherwise. Roberts has a knack for getting on base, but will have to stay healthy to show other tools are playable. #31-40 40. Tyler Duffey, P, 45/High, 12/27/90 39. Javier Pimentel, SS, 50/Extreme, 3/13/94 38. Miguel Gonzalez, P, 50/Extreme, 10/12/94 37. Angel Morales, OF, 45/High, 11/24/89 36. Michael Tonkin, RP, 45/High, 11/19/89 35. Daniel Ortiz, OF, 45/High, 1/5/90 34. D.J. Baxendale, SP, 45/High, 12/8/90 33. Daniel Santana, SS, 45/High, 11/7/90 32. Carlos Gutierrez, RP, 45/High, 9/22/86 31. J.D. Williams, OF, 50/Extreme, 11/20/91 Of note: Morales and Gutierrez, both top-10 prospects once, need to get healthy and prove they belong. J.D. Williams, who is one of the fastest players in the system, needs to show he’s a baseball player, not just fast. Baxendale is a starting pitcher to keep your eye on. #21-30 30. Zach Jones, P, 45/High, 12/4/90 29. J.T. Chargois, RP, 45/High, 12/3/90 28. Pedro Florimon, SS, 45/Medium, 12/10/86 x. Pedro Hernandez, LP, 45/Medium, 4/12/89 27. Dereck Rodriguez, OF, 50/Extreme, 6/5/92 26. Amaurys Minier, SS, 50/Extreme, 1/30/96 25. Kennys Vargas, 1B, 50/Extreme, 8/1/90 24. Alex Wimmers, P, 50/High, 11/1/88 23. Adam Walker, OF, 50/High, 10/18/91 22 (7). Adrian Salcedo, P, 50/High, 4/24/91 21. Mason Melotakis, LP, 50/High, 6/28/91 Of note: All of these names are intriguing. The pitchers – especially Jones, Chargois and Melotakis who could be huge movers with more experience – all have potential. Minier will debut next year. Vargas has lots of raw power. #11-20 20. Madison Boer, P, 50/High, 11/9/89 Struggling in the hi-A rotation, may have to go to bullpen to succeed. 19. Corey Williams, LRP, 50/High, 7/4/90 Lefty has struggled with consistency, can still fill a back-of-bullpen role. 18. Luke Bard, P, 50/High, 11/13/90 Recently promoted to E-Town, should get a chance to start. 17. Levi Michael, SS, 50/High, 2/9/91 Young for his level, Michael hasn’t hit. 16. Chris Herrmann, C/OF, 45/Medium, 11/24/87 Versatile defender has shown he can hit a little bit. 15. Jason Wheeler, P, 50/High, 10/27/90 Big-body who has thrown a ton of innings. 14. Matt Summers, P, 50/High, 8/17/89 Now only focused on pitching, watching his profile rise. 13. Hudson Boyd, P, 55/Extreme, 10/18/82 Has pitched well over his short professional career. 12. B.J. Hermsen, P, 45/Medium, 12/1/89 Not what you’d expect from his frame, but throws strikes and gets outs. 11 (9). Niko Goodrum, SS, 55/Extreme, 2/28/92 Great athlete getting another shot in Appy League. #1-10 10 (8). Joe Benson, OF, 50/Medium, 3/5/88 Down year, but glove still profiles as plus. 9. Max Kepler, OF, 55/High, 2/10/93 Filling out, could make lots of noise in next couple of years. 8 (4). Kyle Gibson, P, 55/Medium, 10/23/87 Coming back from TJ surgery; hopes to fill a rotation spot when healthy. 7 (10). Travis Harrison, 3B, 60/Extreme, 10/17/92 Big power from right side of plate; struggles defensively and may move to 1B. 6 (3). Aaron Hicks, OF, 55/Medium, 10/2/89 Switch-hitting starting to take (finally); super arm/defender in CF. 5. J.O. Berrios, P, 60/Extreme, 5/27/94 Excelling in GCL; dominant stuff. 4 (5). Eddie Rosario, 2B, 65/High, 9/28/91 Learning 2B, but real offensive threat with “quick-through-the-zone” bat. 3 (2). Oswaldo Arcia, OF, 60/Medium, 5/9/91 Pure hitter that is better in the OF than he looks. 2. Byron Buxton, OF, 70/Extreme, 12/18/93 Fast, super athlete, cannon arm, who needs to hit. If he hits with power, look out. 1 (1). Miguel Sano, 3B, 70/High, 5/11/93 Strikeout/defensive questions remain. No question about raw power – best in minor leagues. What do you think? Who is too high? Who is too low? Who did I forget entirely? My next addition will come out sometime after the calendar turns.
  19. With the new CBA, the top 22% of players with less than 3 years of service will be a "Super 2". (That number is up from 17% previously). So, long story longer, more players will be Super-2s pushing the service time cutoff down (and making that "call-up" date even earlier). Follow? At any rate, it's impossible to know what that cutoff will be, but if that's a consideration, I wouldn't call him up until at least the end of June.
  20. While DH'ing, Buxton drilled a triple to center field. Hit streak's at 8 (all one-hit games), seven of eight hits have gone for extra bases. In his last 10 games, he's hitting .303 with an OPS 1.198.
  21. 60ft6in has broke all the Snappers promotions before they've been announced, so I was a little surprised when it looked like he was wrong. He wasn't wrong.
  22. After re-reading your post, I see what you meant. Span wouldn't clear waivers, Willingham neither. But the Twins could work out a deal with the claiming teams to get decent prospects, if they so choose.
  23. Not necessarily. Players that aren't on the 40-man (younger prospects) don't have to pass through waivers... and players that wouldn't clear waivers are just called "players to be named later" and traded after the season. I'm not assuming that the Twins would make a deal that would bring a great return, but good players can still be moved... in either direction.
  24. I'd be shocked if the month of August passes without the Twins making more deals than they made in July.
  25. Eduardo Escobar -and all of his defensive-wizardry - make his Rochester debut tonight... at 3B.
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