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Everything posted by Jeremy Nygaard
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I think that's the goal, but I doubt the international market becomes any less corrupt. The Twins do a great job, don't get me wrong. I would consider them leaders in Australia and strong in Europe. They've also had a presence in both Venezuela and the Dominican. Next year they'll have a larger pool, so that will be interesting.
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To my knowledge, not a single player in the system was signed by the Twins out of Curacao. I would just like to see signs of some activity, a single guy some year. The Dutch team has had some success in the WBC mostly due to their Curacao guys. Two of the Top 10 prospects in baseball - Profar and Bogaerts - were discovered there. I think Shairon Martis is the lone Twin player from Curacao.
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I think the Twins, who do a great job scouting outside of the U.S., just need to head a little farther south down to Curacao... and find these gems when they're 16. The middle infielders to come off of that island in the last 5 years have been impressive.
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As much as I hate seeing repeated threads, I'm posting this link because I didn't see it anywhere else. (I'm sure it's in a thread somewhere today.) It's a five-minute clip that will leave you wishing it was it's own hour show. http://mlb.mlb.com/cutfour/index.jsp#contentId=41836712
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Article: Draft Board v.1.0 (2/17)
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Gunn: The Twins will have a few different strategies they could choose from. One would be saving money like the Astros did last year. I don't think it would be their top choice, but something they considered (it's alluded to in my interview with Sean Johnson). Big City: The 2014 top prospects right now are LHP Carlos Rodon, NC State and C Alex Jackson, CA HS. There are also two other highly-regarded college pitchers - Tyler Beede, Vanderbilt and Nick Burdi, Louisville. The Twins took Burdi out of high school. -
That has been a recurring issue. I'll let Brock know...
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Article: Draft Board v.1.0 (2/17)
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To my knowledge, the Twins view Mercado and Crawford as 1st rounders. Mercado may be more likely to stick at SS. A team that believes in Crawford at SS will take him before the Twins select in the 2nd round. Hernandez's draft stock will change until the Excellence Tournament. Don't have a great feel on Rivera yet. Obviously opinions can change daily. -
Article: Draft Board v.1.0 (2/17)
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?b=1209My mock was better than I remembered. I also recall - it's on a thread somewhere that I couldn't find - projecting Walker to the Twins. I thought Mitch Brown would be a Twin, liked Berrios (as you can see in the link), but didn't anticipate the college relievers. -
I agree. Joe Benson punched a wall in frustration and missed a lot of baseball a few years ago. That's just not smart. I'm sure the guys in the clubhouse don't like to lose, I'm just not sure we'd hear about it everytime somebody lost their cool... unless they got hurt or did it publicly... or went after the manager's door. Who knows what happens with the 4th OF role. I'd guess eventually it's Mastroianni (when Hicks is ready), but Thomas as a month fill-in while Mastro starts and Hicks get AAA at-bats - while not a terribly good idea - is probably a likely scenario.
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PFH: No comp picks, though the 2nd round gets under way much sooner. Jeff: I don't think either GA HS OF will get a grade high enough to be considered for the 4th pick, position need notwithstanding. I'm also hoping a pitcher is signable and available and worthy to go #4. This post was moved to the front page, so I'm sure they will be continued spirited debate over there.
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Article: Draft Board v.1.0 (2/17)
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Thanks to those leaving compliments. I am under the impression that Whitson will redshirt (still would be eligible for the draft) and return for his junior year next year. Considering it's a shoulder deal and the likelihood is that he won't be able to throw before the draft, I would bet that Whitson doesn't go in the Top 10 rounds (those tied to money), but goes later so that teams could a) spend money the saved on him and hopefully see him throw before July 15. Smart money says the Twins won't even kick those tires. -
Article: Draft Board v.1.0 (2/17)
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't know what the CBA explicitly prohibits, but would Boras take slot in return for a handshake agreement that Appel gets called up in September, thus getting a (delayed) head start on service time and free agency? Or would he take slot with the parameters of a major-league contract worked out even though it can't be signed? I would consider both. I would worry, though, that Boras is a snake (he is) and would turn around and try to get the MLB to void whatever agreement was signed, to make Appel a free agent. -
Article: Draft Board v.1.0 (2/17)
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've stopped thinking any system can beat Scott Boras at his game. I don't know what Appel would do, but if he's in a situation to sign for "slot", which is less than what he turned down last year... I don't think he'll sign. The irony is that #1 is going to be Boras v. Houston again and last year it didn't work out for Boras. Houston also had a great draft. I bet they're happy with they decision they made (and might make it again). -
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1381-Draft-Board-v-1-0-(2-17)
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Though we are nearly four months away from the draft – and there is still much baseball to be played – it’s an event that is very significant and may stay very much on some of our minds as we progress through the spring and into summer. I don’t know how often I’ll make changes to this – but this is my first installment of “Jeremy’s Small Board.” “Small” because only 1-4 matter, though I would anticipate having something more like a “Top 10” as the season progresses. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]In the last 20 years, the Twins have had 24 1st round draft picks (not counting supplemental picks). Of those 24 picks, 11 have been prep position players and eight have been college pitchers. The other two groups: college position players (4) and prep pitchers (1) have been much less represented. The Twins first pick (fourth overall) will come with an approximate $4.5m price tag. JEREMY’S SMALL BOARD (Keep in mind, please, that this is not a “mock draft”. This is not a reflection of my top players. This is my attempt at stacking a “Twins Draft Board”, based on a number of things.) 1a) Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford WHY HE MAKES SENSE: On talent alone, he was #1 on a lot of boards last year (and probably #2 on the Twins board). In what’s predicted to be a similarly weak draft, Appel has held the top spot since deciding not to sign with the Pirates last July. WHY THE TWINS SHOULD PASS: Scott Boras. Even though Appel might be a guy you can plug into the top of the rotation almost immediately, is that worth the price of dealing with Scott Boras, who will suck every last penny out of an organization who has opened up their wallet once… ever? (Note: Mike Pelfrey is a Boras-client. Chris Parmelee may be too.) MY TWO CENTS: If Appel is available at #4 and there is enough confidence in the draft room that Appel will come at a reasonable enough price as to not cripple the rest of the draft, I say go for it. PRICE TAG: Boras thought Appel was worth $7.2m last year and not a dollar less. This year’s #1 will be worth 6-8% more, so we’re talking $7.6-7.8m. The Twins entire draft pool will be around $8.2m. Appel (right) with Colts QB Andrew Luck (photo from ESPN.com) 1b) Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State WHY HE MAKES SENSE: Manaea tore up the Cape Cod League last summer and the Twins have had a history of selecting guys who have had successful runs in that league. And it’s not like he was just successful either. He struck out 85 in 51.2 innings… in a year that was considered abnormally “offensive”. WHY THE TWINS SHOULD PASS: Manaea has been good - not dominant - in two college season and started off his junior year getting beat by Indiana University/Purdue University at Fort Wayne (IFPW). I don’t know if that’s enough reason to pass, but enough to not call him a “slam-dunk”… yet. MY TWO CENTS: The Twins will be very much in on Manaea and will be heavily-attending his March 15th tilt at the Metrodome. PRICE TAG: Last year’s 4th overall pick, Kevin Gausman, was able to squeeze an extra $120,000 out of the Orioles as a draft-eligible sophomore. The 5th pick, Kyle Zimmer, took half-a-million less than slot from the Royals. 3) Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas WHY HE MAKES SENSE: If the other two pitchers are off the board, Stanek is the next best pitcher. He’s considered to be a step below Manaea and Appel stuff-wise, but he’s been very good all the while competing against the nation’s best in the SEC. WHY THE TWINS SHOULD PASS: If either Appel or Manaea are still on the board, or if Stanek’s demands are unreasonable. Otherwise, he’s a solid #3 option. MY TWO CENTS: Stanek provides a nice fall-back option and can be considered "best available" as well as fill a need. PRICE TAG: He just missed being a draft-eligible sophomore last year and is considered similar to Kevin Gausman. If Gausman got $4.32m last year, I’d start there with Stanek this year. 4) Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, California HS WHY HE MAKES SENSE: Smith may not be the most well-known prep at this moment, but he’s got a great bat, a great arm and a great feel to play first. He could play either corner OF position, but is said to have a very high defensive-ceiling if he ends up at 1B. Though 1B is considered a landing-place for many prospects with defensive inefficiencies – for those inside the organization presently, as well – Smith would offer legitimate versatility. WHY THE TWINS SHOULD PASS: They need pitching. But like it will always come back to: Should the Twins take “Best Available” or “Best Available Pitcher”? Oh, the Twins are also light on catching prospects and middle infield prospects. MY TWO CENTS: The Twins could do worse, obviously. Is Smith’s D at 1B good enough to overcome for Sano’s shortcomings at 3B? And potentially Rosario’s D at 2B? He’s not a magician (that I’m aware of), but if Smith’s defensive prowess can make up for lesser defenders at 2B and 3B, sign me up. PRICE TAG: It’s hard to peg prep guys, but maybe you could bank a couple hundred thousand dollars taking a guy whose perceived value is a little bit lower, sort of like what the Astros did last year with the 1st overall pick and Carlos Correa. Others to watch: Bobby Wahl, Mississippi, is a pitcher that could really improve his draft stock with a solid college season. He started off his college season with a dominating performance against TCU and is considered to be close to a “finished product”. Jonathan Crawford, Florida, is a flamethrower that fits the mold the Twins were into last year. A rocky opener and a belief he’s best-suited to close, not start, games keeps him out of the top tier. Are you into “toolsy outfielders”? The Twins are and Clint Frazier (Loganville, GA) is one of the highest-rated players in his class, as is Austin Meadows (also from Loganville, different high schools). Frazier has been called a “redheaded Mike Trout” (to a lesser extent, obviously) and Meadows has been compared to Jay Bruce. Both figure to come off the board in the Top 10 picks, but neither, today, are the “toolshed” that Byron Buxton was at this point last year. Minnesota RHP Tom Windle and prep OF Ryan Boldt both figure to go off the board sometime between the Twins first and second picks. At this point in time, it’s difficult to picture either being drafted by the Twins, simply because of their draft position. Bonus watch: While the Twins scouted Jacksonville U. last year before drafting both Adam Walker and Jonathan Murphy, they no doubt were also aware of RHP Chris Anderson, now a junior, who hails from Centennial (MN) HS. If the draft were today, it’s unlikely you’d hear his named called in the first few rounds. But if he continues to pitch like he did in his season debut – 7 IP, H, 13 K, BB, while throwing in the mid-90s and featuring four pitches– it’s hard to say how high he could rise before June. Feel free to discuss.
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Though we are nearly four months away from the draft – and there is still much baseball to be played – it’s an event that is very significant and may stay very much on some of our minds as we progress through the spring and into summer. I don’t know how often I’ll make changes to this – but this is my first installment of “Jeremy’s Small Board.” “Small” because only 1-4 matter, though I would anticipate having something more like a “Top 10” as the season progresses. In the last 20 years, the Twins have had 24 1st round draft picks (not counting supplemental picks). Of those 24 picks, 11 have been prep position players and eight have been college pitchers. The other two groups: college position players (4) and prep pitchers (1) have been much less represented. The Twins first pick (fourth overall) will come with an approximate $4.5m price tag. JEREMY’S SMALL BOARD (Keep in mind, please, that this is not a “mock draft”. This is not a reflection of my top players. This is my attempt at stacking a “Twins Draft Board”, based on a number of things.) 1a) Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford WHY HE MAKES SENSE: On talent alone, he was #1 on a lot of boards last year (and probably #2 on the Twins board). In what’s predicted to be a similarly weak draft, Appel has held the top spot since deciding not to sign with the Pirates last July. WHY THE TWINS SHOULD PASS: Scott Boras. Even though Appel might be a guy you can plug into the top of the rotation almost immediately, is that worth the price of dealing with Scott Boras, who will suck every last penny out of an organization who has opened up their wallet once… ever? (Note: Mike Pelfrey is a Boras-client. Chris Parmelee may be too.) MY TWO CENTS: If Appel is available at #4 and there is enough confidence in the draft room that Appel will come at a reasonable enough price as to not cripple the rest of the draft, I say go for it. PRICE TAG: Boras thought Appel was worth $7.2m last year and not a dollar less. This year’s #1 will be worth 6-8% more, so we’re talking $7.6-7.8m. The Twins entire draft pool will be around $8.2m. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3276[/ATTACH] Appel (right) with Colts QB Andrew Luck (photo from ESPN.com) 1b) Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State WHY HE MAKES SENSE: Manaea tore up the Cape Cod League last summer and the Twins have had a history of selecting guys who have had successful runs in that league. And it’s not like he was just successful either. He struck out 85 in 51.2 innings… in a year that was considered abnormally “offensive”. WHY THE TWINS SHOULD PASS: Manaea has been good - not dominant - in two college season and started off his junior year getting beat by Indiana University/Purdue University at Fort Wayne (IFPW). I don’t know if that’s enough reason to pass, but enough to not call him a “slam-dunk”… yet. MY TWO CENTS: The Twins will be very much in on Manaea and will be heavily-attending his March 15th tilt at the Metrodome. PRICE TAG: Last year’s 4th overall pick, Kevin Gausman, was able to squeeze an extra $120,000 out of the Orioles as a draft-eligible sophomore. The 5th pick, Kyle Zimmer, took half-a-million less than slot from the Royals. 3) Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas WHY HE MAKES SENSE: If the other two pitchers are off the board, Stanek is the next best pitcher. He’s considered to be a step below Manaea and Appel stuff-wise, but he’s been very good all the while competing against the nation’s best in the SEC. WHY THE TWINS SHOULD PASS: If either Appel or Manaea are still on the board, or if Stanek’s demands are unreasonable. Otherwise, he’s a solid #3 option. MY TWO CENTS: Stanek provides a nice fall-back option and can be considered "best available" as well as fill a need. PRICE TAG: He just missed being a draft-eligible sophomore last year and is considered similar to Kevin Gausman. If Gausman got $4.32m last year, I’d start there with Stanek this year. 4) Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, California HS WHY HE MAKES SENSE: Smith may not be the most well-known prep at this moment, but he’s got a great bat, a great arm and a great feel to play first. He could play either corner OF position, but is said to have a very high defensive-ceiling if he ends up at 1B. Though 1B is considered a landing-place for many prospects with defensive inefficiencies – for those inside the organization presently, as well – Smith would offer legitimate versatility. WHY THE TWINS SHOULD PASS: They need pitching. But like it will always come back to: Should the Twins take “Best Available” or “Best Available Pitcher”? Oh, the Twins are also light on catching prospects and middle infield prospects. MY TWO CENTS: The Twins could do worse, obviously. Is Smith’s D at 1B good enough to overcome for Sano’s shortcomings at 3B? And potentially Rosario’s D at 2B? He’s not a magician (that I’m aware of), but if Smith’s defensive prowess can make up for lesser defenders at 2B and 3B, sign me up. PRICE TAG: It’s hard to peg prep guys, but maybe you could bank a couple hundred thousand dollars taking a guy whose perceived value is a little bit lower, sort of like what the Astros did last year with the 1st overall pick and Carlos Correa. Others to watch: Bobby Wahl, Mississippi, is a pitcher that could really improve his draft stock with a solid college season. He started off his college season with a dominating performance against TCU and is considered to be close to a “finished product”. Jonathan Crawford, Florida, is a flamethrower that fits the mold the Twins were into last year. A rocky opener and a belief he’s best-suited to close, not start, games keeps him out of the top tier. Are you into “toolsy outfielders”? The Twins are and Clint Frazier (Loganville, GA) is one of the highest-rated players in his class, as is Austin Meadows (also from Loganville, different high schools). Frazier has been called a “redheaded Mike Trout” (to a lesser extent, obviously) and Meadows has been compared to Jay Bruce. Both figure to come off the board in the Top 10 picks, but neither, today, are the “toolshed” that Byron Buxton was at this point last year. Minnesota RHP Tom Windle and prep OF Ryan Boldt both figure to go off the board sometime between the Twins first and second picks. At this point in time, it’s difficult to picture either being drafted by the Twins, simply because of their draft position. Bonus watch: While the Twins scouted Jacksonville U. last year before drafting both Adam Walker and Jonathan Murphy, they no doubt were also aware of RHP Chris Anderson, now a junior, who hails from Centennial (MN) HS. If the draft were today, it’s unlikely you’d hear his named called in the first few rounds. But if he continues to pitch like he did in his season debut – 7 IP, H, 13 K, BB, while throwing in the mid-90s and featuring four pitches– it’s hard to say how high he could rise before June. Feel free to discuss.
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Benson had microfracture surgery? I knew he had knee surgery... but microfracture is a big deal. Just ask Grady Sizemore or Greg Oden. "Currently, Sizemore is the only player in MLB history to come back from knee microfracture surgery and play centerfield." "One study has shown a success rate of 75 to 80 percent among patients 45 years of age or younger." Both from Microfracture's Wiki page.
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Draft Targets
Jeremy Nygaard replied to The Greatest Poster Alive's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Mark Appel made his season debut against Rice today. 5 IP, 5 R (2 ER), 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K, WP. Pretty nondescript. Sean Manaea lost to IPFW. 4+ IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K. Not nearly as dominant as his Cape Cod League Summer. Ryne Stanek beat W. Illinois. 4 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, BB, 4 K. Taking it on the chin was projected #1 in 2014, NC State LP Carlos Rodon. 6 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, BB, 8 K... the biggest news was that, after only allowing 2 HRs his entire freshman year, and not losing a game since his junior year of high school, he gives up 3 HR and takes a loss in his 2013 debut. -
Draft Targets
Jeremy Nygaard replied to The Greatest Poster Alive's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
He's out for the year. I would guess he'll take a medical redshirt this year and try to come back and improve his draft stock for the 2014 draft.

