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dave_dw

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Everything posted by dave_dw

  1. dave_dw
    I'm a 3, but not because I'm a pessimist or irrationally angry at losses & poor performance, I simply think some of the Twins philosophies are outdated. If I were a Tampa Bay Rays fan, I'd be a 7 or 8 because I think they have a smarter front office and manager.
  2. dave_dw

    Joe Mauer

    dave_dw replied to a topic in Minnesota Twins Talk

    It may be surprising to you, but home runs and batting average aren't the only things used to measure a player's value. Mauer posted a 7.9 WAR that year, the "aberration." He also had seasons of 6.4, 6.1, & 5.5 WAR. According to the Fangraphs explanation of WAR, anything above 6.0 is considered MVP level and anything from 5.0-6.0 is "superstar" level. The only times Mauer's WAR dipped below 5.5 was in his first full season (age 22) and the season where he played 109 games or less. The Twins didn't pay him for one season, they payed him because he's been the best catcher in baseball when he plays. If you want to argue against his health, go ahead, but don't pretend he's not one of the best catchers in baseball when healthy.
  3. dave_dw
    Oh but I can...the 1998 Florida Marlins went 1-2 (.333 Win%) in their opening series against the Cubs and they finished the season with a record of 54-108 (.333 Win%).
  4. dave_dw
    Now we're talking! I'm just having fun, gang!
  5. dave_dw
    If the Orioles played the Twins 162 times in a year... ...Jake Arrieta would make Justin Verlander look like a broken Rick Reed. ...they would rename Camden Yards to Markakis Goes Yards after he hit 108 home runs in a year. ...the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, & Blue Jays would commit group suicide by filling their sunflower seeds with mini hand grenades.
  6. dave_dw
    It be kind of fun to collect as many old Nationals players as possible. We've got Capps, Carroll, Willingham, Marquis, & Pavano pitched with Montreal--why not Lannan too? Oh yea, I know why not Lannan...he's not good.
  7. dave_dw
    Of the Twins' first 25 games (eight series), the will play just 6 games against teams who finished last year below .500. They start with the terrible Orioles and play the on-the-rise Royals at the end of April. Their other 19 games aren't just against good teams, they're against the best teams in the AL. Here's how it looks: vs. Angels - 3 games from April 9-12.vs. Rangers - 3 games from April 13-15.@ Yankees - 4 games from April 16-19.@ Rays - 3 games from April 20-22.vs. Red Sox - 3 games from April 23-25.@ Angels - 3 games from April 30-May 1.These five teams averaged 92 wins between them last year even with the now much improved Angels winning just 86 games. Yikes. We'll definitely get a sense of what this team can do after this gauntlet. The silver lining in all of this is that Minnesota is getting all the hard games out of the way early while their hitters are still healthy (fingers crossed). Either this will be an ugly first month or a pleasant start to a surprise season for the Twins.
  8. dave_dw
    AL West: Rangers AL Central: Tigers AL East: Red Sox AL Wild Card 1: Yankees AL Wild Card 2: Rays AL MVP: Jose Bautista AL Cy Young: David Price AL Rookie: Yu Darvish NL West: Giants NL Central: Reds NL East: Phillies NL Wild Card 1: Cardinals NL Wild Card 2: Marlins NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen NL Cy Young: Zack Greinke NL Rookie: Zack Cozart World Series: Reds over Red Sox
  9. dave_dw
    How has nobody mentioned this gem yet? http://www.collegehumor.com/video/6036000/scott-stapps-marlins-song
  10. dave_dw
    Agreed. Anytime you can rhyme "I wasn't quite alive yet" with "Zoilo Versalles" you're doing something right.
  11. dave_dw
    Knowing Mr. Gardenhire, the right fielder will likely change everyday. Doumit on Tuesday, Plouffe, on Wednesday, Parmalee on Thursday, Mauer on Friday, Revere on Saturday, and maybe first base coach Jerry White will play RF on Sunday just to give guys a day off on day games following a night game.
  12. dave_dw
    Speak the truth, brotha! Last year's best closer Craig Kimbrel lead all relievers in WAR with 3.2. There were a total of 109 starters/hitters that had a higher WAR than he did. In other words, the best relief pitcher last year was easier to replace than over 100 starters/hitters. It doesn't take a great pitcher to be a closer. Having Capps close (even if it's mediocrely) is great for the Twins because it means that our best reliever, Perkins, can pitch in the higher pressure situations in the 6th-8th innings, and should be able to throw more innings on the season.
  13. dave_dw
    I think this is a move based on Burroughs upside. He's got at least twice the ceiling that Dinkelman has with pretty much the same floor. All and all, the last hitter off the bench shouldn't have too much effect in a season anyway.
  14. dave_dw
    - Nick Blackburn posts a sub 3.30 ERA and is the ace of the staff - Joe Benson posts the highest WAR of all position players in 2012 after winning the everyday job in RF in early June - Danny Valencia gets traded mid-season after a solid first half of the season - Jason Marquis gets released or traded by July 1
  15. dave_dw
    Trading Morneau would be a great move, but it's hard to picture a situation where that could happen. In order for anyone to want Morneau in a trade, he will have to be productive and prove healthy. If he is productive and healthy, there's a pretty good chance that the Twins will be within enough games of the Tigers to be in contention around the trade deadline and will want to keep him to make a run at the division. A trade could only happen if either Morneau is the only good player on the Twins so we don't win games or if the Tigers are unbelievably good and have a huge lead in the Central at the deadline.
  16. dave_dw
    Do you realize how meaningless 26 at bats is? Here's an example: From May 28-June 10, Drew Butera had 25 at bats. His line over that period of time was .360/.407/.640. LOOK AT THAT LINE! We might as well just start him and trade Mauer! Those great 25 ABs didn't stop Butera from being the worst hitter in baseball last year and finishing with an unbelievable line of .167/.210/.239. [TABLE=class: tablehead] [TR=class: evenrow player-10-29436] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  17. dave_dw
    Whoa! The Dodgers? That would REALLY impress the new owners...
  18. dave_dw
    Here's a link to the Hardball Talk post about Cristian Guzman getting released by the Indians. With the Twins middle infield need for a backup shortstop, its seems plausible that they would look into bringing the ex-Twins infielder back in 2012.
  19. dave_dw
    We all have our own predictions, so why not get them on record before the season starts! (I know the Mariners just beat the A's, but I doubt either team is going to make it in anyone's playoff predictions) NL West: San Francisco Giants NL Central: Cincinnati Reds NL East: Philadelphia Phillies NL Wild Card: Miami Marlins NL Wild Card: St. Louis Cardinals AL West: Texas Rangers AL Central: Detroit Tigers AL East: Boston Red Sox AL Wild Card: New York Yankees AL Wild Card: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim World Series: Red Sox over Reds in 5 games.
  20. dave_dw
    I think it's gunna be the Atlanta Braves. When I look at their line-up, I'm surprised at how weak their hitting is. Pair that with a shaky staff full of injury risks and young pitchers, and you could have a disaster. Especially in an NL East that has beefed up. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 4th in the East this year.
  21. dave_dw
    Going into 2011, the Twins were expected to win the Central. In the Fangraphs organization rankings (which are being handed out for 2012 right now), the Twins had the #6 franchise. After a 99 loss season, they're now ranked as the 26th best franchise...quite a drop. What team will take a big, Twins-like drop in 2012?
  22. dave_dw
    I agree with this in principle, but I think Span really wants to be the center fielder, and he's got seniority. Plus he's not bad in center, Revere is just better. But it's not unprecedented to have your best defensive outfielder playing in a corner spot. Brett Gardner and Carl Crawford have done it for years.
  23. dave_dw
    Spring stats mean nothing. Please see Jake Fox's 2011 spring stats followed by his 2011 season stats. Please see Kila Ka'aihue's 2011 springs stats and following season. Please see Mitch Maier's 2010 spring stats and his 2010 regular season stats. Or how about Jeremy Reed's big 2009 spring followed by nothing in his career at the big league level. There are hundreds of examples of players succeeding in spring training with no translation into the big league level. Of course there are also examples of players playing well in spring and then doing well in regular season, but most of these players are established pros. The bottom line about spring is that anyone can hit well for a two week period in March against mostly AAA players and some pro pitchers who are working on their game rather than throwing at their best. It's nice to see young players play well in the spring for their confidence, but it has absolute zero predictive value for how they would do in the majors. The jump from AAA to the bigs is the hardest level jump in baseball by a long ways.
  24. dave_dw
    Cliff Lee. Lee and Halladay have AMAZING control (which the Twins obviously love) and Lee's a year young than Halladay. Verlander's scary because he relies a lot on his velocity, which has drop ever so slightly the last few years and will continue to drop with age. Kershaw's youth is great, but outside of last year he's struggle with control, and he's had a career of fortunate batting averages on balls in play which indicates that he could be getting very lucky.
  25. dave_dw
    I sure am glad the season hasn't started yet. We'll see how he does during the real season.
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