dave_dw

There are a lot of question about the pitching staff going into this season. Will Liriano bounce back from last year? Will Baker stay healthy? Can Blackburn go back to his ole 4.00 ERA days? Can Pavano repeat his 2010 success? What will Marquis be able to do in the AL? Which of these starters will have the best season in 2012?

After struggling as a starter and missing almost all of 2010, Glen Perkins came back in 2011 with a new role and, seemingly, a new arm. His added velocity from pitching out of the bullpen helped his slider become a wicked, plus pitch. Now he's one of only a few proven relievers coming out of the bullpen this year. His surprising performance last year brings up a good question: Who could be the Glen Perkins of 2012?

There is a pretty good chance that Beloit Snappers will start the season fielding Eddie Rosario at 2B, Levi Michael at SS, and Miguel Sano at 3B. It's a great year to live near a Midwest League team. If these guys are playing, I know I'll be going out to see it any chance I get.

I spruced up my post quite a bit and added in some stuff, so I'm sorry if some of your comments don't make sense anymore. Love the discussion, though.

With the Twins coming off one of their worst pitching seasons in over a decade, many fans and analysts are blaming the Twins’ “pitch to contact” philosophy. Critics cite career lows in strikeout rates for pitchers like Francisco Liriano and Matt Capps in 2011 as proof that there needs to be a new approach on the mound. However, if we look back at the Twins’ recent history, we see that the “pitch to contact” strategy has actually played a large part in their success, particularly by producing quality pitching at a low price. From 2001 to 2010, the Twins had the ninth lowest ERA in the MLB. Their pitching staff finished 19th in K/9, but first in BB/9 by a wide margin. While high-velocity, strikeout pitchers are in high demand -- and are therefore at a premium cost -- lower-velocity, command pitchers aren’t as sought after and are cheaper. It is these type of pitchers that the Twins have gotten over the past decade. Over that span of 10 years, the Twins averaged $25.3 million in pitching payroll each year. The average payroll of the other nine teams in the top 10 of ERA over that same period of time was $38.1 million. Only the Oakland A’s paid less for their pitching. On average, the Twins spent almost $13 million less than other teams that had a similar ERA. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 350, align: center] Team [TD=align: center]ERA [/TD] [TD=align: center]Avg Yearly Payroll [/TD] Atlanta Braves[TD=align: center]3.89[/TD] [TD=align: center]$45,675,172[/TD] LA Dodgers[TD=align: center]3.90[/TD] [TD=align: center]$45,690,133[/TD] Oakland A's[TD=align: center]3.92[/TD] [TD=align: center]$18,193,173[/TD] St. Louis Cardinals[TD=align: center]4.01[/TD] [TD=align: center]$39,221,293[/TD] SF Giants[TD=align: center]4.03[/TD] [TD=align: center]$31,494,869[/TD] LA Angels[TD=align: center]4.09[/TD] [TD=align: center]$39,345,550[/TD] Chicago Cubs[TD=align: center]4.09[/TD] [TD=align: center]$43,747,343[/TD] New York Mets [TD=align: center]4.10[/TD] [TD=align: center]$49,308,743 [/TD] Minnesota Twins[TD=align: center]4.16[/TD] [TD=align: center]$25,268,000 [/TD] Houston Astros[TD=align: center]4.16[/TD] [TD=align: center]$29,939,475[/TD] [/TABLE] The Twins' ERA was helped by a 2.98 ERA from Johan Santana and a good bullpen over those years (see Patience with Bullpen is a Must), but the rest of the rotation had solid numbers and was filled with quintessential "pitch to contact" arms. Pitchers like Brad Radke, Joe Mays, Kyle Lohse, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Carlos Silva, and Carl Pavano were not exactly Cy Young candidates, but they were good for an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50, which was worth two to four wins above replacement level each year. Outside of Baker, none of these pitchers are known for missing many bats, but they all have a career BB/9 below 3.00 with most of them falling under 2.50 BB/9 (MLB average from '01 to '10 was 3.33 BB/9). The "pitch to contact" philosophy has been controversial among Twins fans and analysts in recent years, but pitching to contact clearly leads to fewer walks. And, as we learned from watching Moneyball, the more you walk, the more you can score. The Twins pitching staff, by reducing its walks -- thanks to its pitching philosophy -- has been able to limit runs at a lower price than most of the league.

With the Twins coming off one of their worst pitching seasons in over a decade, many fans and analysts are blaming the Twins’ “pitch to contact” philosophy. Critics cite career lows in strikeout rates for pitchers like Francisco Liriano and Matt Capps in 2011 as proof that there needs to be a new approach on the mound. However, if we look back at the Twins’ recent history, we see that the “pitch to contact” strategy has actually played a large part in their success, particularly by producing quality pitching at a low price. From 2001 to 2010, the Twins had the ninth lowest ERA in the MLB. Their pitching staff finished 19th in K/9, but first in BB/9 by a wide margin. While high-velocity, strikeout pitchers are in high demand -- and are therefore at a premium cost -- lower-velocity, command pitchers aren’t as sought after and are cheaper. It is these type of pitchers that the Twins have gotten over the past decade. Over that span of 10 years, the Twins averaged $25.3 million in pitching payroll each year. The average payroll of the other nine teams in the top 10 of ERA over that same period of time was $38.1 million. Only the Oakland A’s paid less for their pitching. On average, the Twins spent almost $13 million less than other teams that had a similar ERA. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 350, align: center] Team [TD=align: center]ERA [/TD] [TD=align: center]Avg Yearly Payroll [/TD] Atlanta Braves[TD=align: center]3.89[/TD] [TD=align: center]$45,675,172[/TD] LA Dodgers[TD=align: center]3.90[/TD] [TD=align: center]$45,690,133[/TD] Oakland A's[TD=align: center]3.92[/TD] [TD=align: center]$18,193,173[/TD] St. Louis Cardinals[TD=align: center]4.01[/TD] [TD=align: center]$39,221,293[/TD] SF Giants[TD=align: center]4.03[/TD] [TD=align: center]$31,494,869[/TD] LA Angels[TD=align: center]4.09[/TD] [TD=align: center]$39,345,550[/TD] Chicago Cubs[TD=align: center]4.09[/TD] [TD=align: center]$43,747,343[/TD] New York Mets [TD=align: center]4.10[/TD] [TD=align: center]$49,308,743 [/TD] Minnesota Twins[TD=align: center]4.16[/TD] [TD=align: center]$25,268,000 [/TD] Houston Astros[TD=align: center]4.16[/TD] [TD=align: center]$29,939,475[/TD] [/TABLE] The Twins' ERA was helped by a 2.98 ERA from Johan Santana and a good bullpen over those years (see Patience with Bullpen is a Must), but the rest of the rotation had solid numbers and was filled with quintessential "pitch to contact" arms. Pitchers like Brad Radke, Joe Mays, Kyle Lohse, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Carlos Silva, and Carl Pavano were not exactly Cy Young candidates, but they were good for an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50, which was worth two to four wins above replacement level each year. Outside of Baker, none of these pitchers are known for missing many bats, but they all have a career BB/9 below 3.00 with most of them falling under 2.50 BB/9 (MLB average from '01 to '10 was 3.33 BB/9). The "pitch to contact" philosophy has been controversial among Twins fans and analysts in recent years, but pitching to contact clearly leads to fewer walks. And, as we learned from watching Moneyball, the more you walk, the more you can score. The Twins pitching staff, by reducing its walks -- thanks to its pitching philosophy -- has been able to limit runs at a lower price than most of the league.

I want to go to Minute Maid just to see someone trip over that hill in center field.

If only the Twins had Ryan Doumit while playing indoors...Metro-Doumit.

In 2011 Target Field finished 20th in HR's ahead of places parks including Tropicana Field, Fenway Park, and Busch Stadium. I don't think anyone would complain that those parks are harder to hit homers at, and those three teams have better offenses than the Twins did last year. It's mostly mental, which is why bringing in a guy like Josh Willingham (who hit 15 homers at the Coliseum last year) will bring in a different mentality since he know he can hit homers anywhere, just like Thome did.

With the Twins coming off one of their worst pitching seasons in over a decade, many fans and analysts are blaming the Twins’ “pitch to contact” philosophy. Critics cite career lows in strikeout rates for pitchers like Francisco Liriano and Matt Capps in 2011 as proof that there needs to be a new approach on the mound. However, if we look back at the Twins’ recent history, we see that the “pitch to contact” strategy has actually played a large part in their success, particularly by producing quality pitching at a low price. From 2001 to 2010, the Twins had the ninth lowest ERA in the MLB. Their pitching staff finished 19th in K/9, but first in BB/9 by a wide margin. While high-velocity, strikeout pitchers are in high demand -- and are therefore at a premium cost -- lower-velocity, command pitchers aren’t as sought after and are cheaper. It is these type of pitchers that the Twins have gotten over the past decade. Over that span of 10 years, the Twins averaged $25.3 million in pitching payroll each year. The average payroll of the other nine teams in the top 10 of ERA over that same period of time was $38.1 million. Only the Oakland A’s paid less for their pitching. On average, the Twins spent almost $13 million less than other teams that had a similar ERA. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 350, align: center] Team [TD=align: center]ERA [/TD] [TD=align: center]Avg Yearly Payroll [/TD] Atlanta Braves[TD=align: center]3.89[/TD] [TD=align: center]$45,675,172[/TD] LA Dodgers[TD=align: center]3.90[/TD] [TD=align: center]$45,690,133[/TD] Oakland A's[TD=align: center]3.92[/TD] [TD=align: center]$18,193,173[/TD] St. Louis Cardinals[TD=align: center]4.01[/TD] [TD=align: center]$39,221,293[/TD] SF Giants[TD=align: center]4.03[/TD] [TD=align: center]$31,494,869[/TD] LA Angels[TD=align: center]4.09[/TD] [TD=align: center]$39,345,550[/TD] Chicago Cubs[TD=align: center]4.09[/TD] [TD=align: center]$43,747,343[/TD] New York Mets[TD=align: center]4.10[/TD] [TD=align: center]$49,308,743[/TD] Minnesota Twins[TD=align: center]4.16[/TD] [TD=align: center]$25,268,000[/TD] Houston Astros[TD=align: center]4.16[/TD] [TD=align: center]$29,939,475[/TD] [/TABLE] The Twins' ERA was helped by a 2.98 ERA from Johan Santana and a good bullpen over those years (see Patience with Bullpen is a Must), but the rest of the rotation had solid numbers and was filled with quintessential "pitch to contact" arms. Pitchers like Brad Radke, Joe Mays, Kyle Lohse, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Carlos Silva, and Carl Pavano were not exactly Cy Young candidates, but they were good for an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50, which was worth two to four wins above replacement level each year. Outside of Baker, none of these pitchers are known for missing many bats, but they all have a career BB/9 below 3.00 with most of them falling under 2.50 BB/9 (MLB average from '01 to '10 was 3.33 BB/9). The "pitch to contact" philosophy has been controversial among Twins fans and analysts in recent years, but pitching to contact clearly leads to fewer walks. And, as we learned from watching Moneyball, the more you walk, the more you can score. The Twins pitching staff, by reducing its walks -- thanks to its pitching philosophy -- has been able to limit runs at a lower price than most of the league. **Some edits have been made, so there may be some comments that no longer make sense**

NOOOOOO! It's old, smells like pee EVERYWHERE, and every seat has a poll blocking home plate or first base. Kauffman takes it home for me, but I haven't been to a lot of other parks yet. I hear PNC in Pittsburgh is beautiful.

It's Drew Butera, why do you think he keeps making the team? His offense?

Love the article. This hits the nail on the head. If you don't have quality, get quantity. The more mediocre options you get the better chance one of them develops into a good option. I'm very interested to see who takes a step forward this year!

The Twins playoff chances increase by 25%!

It HAS to be For the Love of the Game. First of all, Kevin Costner plays for the Tigers. Secondly, it revolves around one of the most unlikely baseball events, the perfect game. Third, Costner is the WORST ACTOR EVER in this movie!

What a great insight into the actual people behind these names and numbers that us fans see. Best of luck to you Tony, hope to see you pitching at Target Field soon!

What about these guys? Collectively they have a 4.72 ERA in the MLB. That's worse than the Twins' MLB worst 4.51 bullpen ERA last year! Could some of these guys improve on their past performance? Maybe, but they aren't any better than the AAA guys we already have.

I think the Twins considered themselves serious contenders in the Central up until the Tigers signed Prince. Now they're stuck between rebuilding and contending, and given the sad news about Morneau's health, they really aren't a good righty reliever away from competing. They're better off hoping for bounce-back season from Mauer, Span, and Liriano, and trying to develop young players to fill the rest of their holes so they can contend in next few years.

I'm a glass half full guy too. Except my glass is half full of whiskey because this is going to be a long season.

I'm sure they trade a prospect who's better than Zach Putnam for Kevin Slowey.

I could see any one of these 4 teams finishing 2nd or finishing last.

I got the pleasure of watching a little Jairo "The Gyro" Perez last year. And that guy killed it in the Midwest League which is notoriously hard to hit in. Don't let his down year in 2009 throw you, he was battling injury that year which led him to miss 2010. Now he's back and appears to be as good as ever. Plus, unlike Miguel Sano, he looks like he actually profiles at 3B.

Two words: Felipe Paulino. Get ready for the most unlikely ace of the season.

I'm the guy who voted Indians. Ya, I'll admit that it's in part because I have a hard time going along with what everybody else thinks is a no-brainer (i.e. last year’s Red Sox). I can see a Tiger meltdown based on three things all happening: 1. Terrible Defense – Jhonny Peralta had an absolute career year defensively that stands out drastically from his normal performance, so regression is very possible. Other than Austin Jackson, this team is very adequate in the field. 2. Pitching Regression - All this bad defense will definitely lead to a drop in team ERA (much like the Twins did last year). And while Verlander is coming off of an MVP year, his BABIP was unsustainably low at .236 compared to his career average .285. 3. Struggling Supporting Offense – I say “supporting offense” because Cabrera & Fielder are going to get their numbers, but it’s the supporting cast that I wonder about. Alex Avila raked last year, mostly thanks to an unbelievable .366 BABIP. Jhonny Peralta had his best offensive year last year since he was a rookie. If Delmon does what he’s always done (with the exception of 2010), and the rest of their lineup stays around the same, the supporting cast of this team looks pretty weak. You sprinkle in some missed time for Miguel Cabrera in their because of possible wear and tear at third base, and you’ve got an 80-85 win team. Suddenly the Indians are in striking distance for sure.