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USAFChief

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Everything posted by USAFChief

  1. USAFChief
    Platooning has become very difficult with the ever expanding pitching staffs, no doubt. But at least for a position or two, not impossible. Every team will carry at least 4 outfielders, there's no reason a GM can't set it up so a platoon advantage exists for his weakest offensive outfielder. Every team carries two catchers, and a spare infielder. Same deal. Of course, the manager has to take advantage of his roster...
  2. USAFChief
    Berrios for sure, May IF he's a starter. May will be on the 25 man one way or another, but not necessarily in a starter spot.
  3. USAFChief
    In any case, back to the topic. If the every day roster--minus the pitching--on this team isn't an above .500 unit, there are bigger problems. I think the pitching will be somewhat better, below average but better. So I expect the everyday lineup to be enough to get them close to .500. I agree with the OP.
  4. USAFChief
    As I said, I believe luck is a factor. But I'm not prepared to write it all off as luck. That's not only a lazy explanation for why your model doesn't work, it wouldn't match any other human endeavor involving skill and competition. There are reasons, for example, why Joe Mauer has hit third most of his career and never drove in 100 runs. One reason is luck, but that's not the only one. It's not even the primary one. And a math model isn't going to capture that.
  5. USAFChief
    I'd be all in favor of a RH hitting OFer, but isn't Grossman a SW hitter?
  6. USAFChief
    Certainly luck is a factor. But I doubt it's the only thing causing non-random distribution of events like hits. Certainly not over long time frames, like seasons.
  7. USAFChief
    Good post, but a quibble...I'm reluctant to completely ascribe "sequencing" to luck. I don't think there's much evidence of that. And in fact, in at least my experience in other pursuits, to quote someone relevant, "luck is the residue of design."
  8. USAFChief
    I hope Robbie Grossman has fewer games played than Byron Buxton, unlike 2016. Kepler semi full time. More infield stability, less Eduardo Nunez. At least some improvement at catcher. Injuries and/or poor performance can alter any plan, but at least to start, this will not be a copy of 2016. Frankly, if the position players aren't already easily capable of 80 wins, this team is in real trouble. The "top farm system" of the past half decade is here. The question marks had better be primarily on the pitching side.
  9. USAFChief
    All true, particularly injuries, although the defense will be better this year. And a 21 game improvement IS enormous. But smaller than a 24 game drop.
  10. USAFChief
    Significant advancement from Sano and Buxton has to be almost a given, right? Berrios and Kepler seem likely. Now you'd need only two or three more in your scenario, from the "possibles." I know the pitching needs to improve, but it should, just by accident. And from there, if the position players aren't good enough to get to around .500, then they likely never will.
  11. USAFChief
    In my case, I'm happy they haven't given Dozier away, while still pretty disappointed overall at the lack of attempts to improve the team for 2017 and beyond.
  12. USAFChief
    So is caving on a trade and getting no value in return.
  13. USAFChief
    That's why the "surplus value" argument isn't worth the paper it's written on. Ignoring the problems with WAR itself, if your goal is to win baseball games: 10 WAR over 2 years >>>>> 10 WAR over 6 years. I would hope Falvey and Levine are smart enough to find 1.5 WAR pitchers without giving up 5 WAR players.
  14. USAFChief
    That, to me, is one of the key issues here. I suspect the reason the Dodgers would be willing to part with De Leon is because ultimately they don't view him as particularly valuable. They're trying to max out his value while they still can.
  15. USAFChief
    I think it makes all the sense in the world. Adding a free agent, for example, costs only money. Adding a starter by trading your best player costs your best player. And in this specific case, they aren't even adding a starter, they're adding the potential for one starter. Everyone wants the Twins to get better. Some of us just think if you're trading away your best player, there aught to be a real chance your team is better, and soon.
  16. USAFChief
    So then despite many claims to the contrary, you're ok with a 1:1 swap? The bottom line here is, it's pretty obvious Falvey/Levine don't think that's fair, or this would be over. Perhaps they have better insight on De Leon.
  17. USAFChief
    If De Leon is the only major piece, concern over piece two and three should dramatically go UP, not down.
  18. USAFChief
    Do it.
  19. USAFChief
    Would people really not trade Tag Bozied for Jose Bautista? Wow.
  20. USAFChief
    As I've stated previously, I'll be very disappointed if Castro is the only major roster change coming out of spring training.
  21. USAFChief
    I can only speak for myself, but this is what I believe: - Leadership has been an important component in the success or failure of every team I've been on my entire life. In and out of sports. I can't conceive a reason why baseball should be different. - Not everything that can be measured is important, and not everything that is important can be measured.
  22. USAFChief
    Well that's no fun. You can't sell a script in Hollywood without a villain.
  23. USAFChief
    Yes, the Twins were so much better in 2014 and 2016 when they weren't handicapped by that bum in RF.
  24. USAFChief
    2009: OPS .757 2010. ..995 2011 1.056 2012 .886 2013 .856 2014 .928 2015 .913 2016 .817 Now it's certainly possible he's done, and falls off a cliff in 2017. But I'd bet a lot against it.
  25. USAFChief
    At the risk of repeating myself from other Bautista threads: there are certainly reasons one might be opposed to signing him...but money isn't one of them. It goes to Jose, or it goes to ownership, never to be seen again. It's that simple.
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