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jwestbrock

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Everything posted by jwestbrock

  1. jwestbrock
    We'll stick with the 2002-2007 and 2008-2012 time frames because I see the idea of pre-Dave Duncan and post-Dave Duncan type argument. (Data from Fangraphs) 2002-2007 ERA- 105/FIP- 100/xFIP- 104 2008-2012 ERA- 106/FIP- 101/xFIP- 104 So basically the same slightly below average pitcher in both time frames adjusted for league and park. This does not change the fact that he would be a welcome addition to the rotation, but that has more to do with the rotation than anything Lohse has done.
  2. jwestbrock
    I figured this team had a chance to win around 80 games if the bats did what most people thought they would and the pitching was even slightly below average. In their last 29 games, they are 15-14. We can't erase the brutal start, but I think the last 29 games is more indicative of their abilities than the first 27 games. With that in mind, if they maintain a .500 pace they will end up with about 75 wins, which I think most felt they could do, but it all hinges on the guys who started the year pitching in the Rochester rotation and Liriano keeping up a solid pace, otherwise we could be in for a long summer again.
  3. jwestbrock
    John Manuel ‏@johnmanuelba Patrick Wisdom is the biggest reach in supp round so far. He hit in the past but serious draft-itis this year. So at least the Twins didn't reach as much as the Cardinals or now the Rangers with Collin Wiles, at least according to Manuel.
  4. jwestbrock
    I'm wondering if they maybe got a guy they liked, but think they can save some money and will take and pay McCullers?
  5. jwestbrock
    They have to go BPA, if they have him higher than McCullers, Eflin, Smoral, even Piscotty or Gallo as hitters, you take him, but I have a hard time seeing them being that high on him when BA has him 44 and MLB has him 51. I have to believe he'll still be there at 42.
  6. jwestbrock
    Baseball America has Eflin 31 and MLB.com has him 25, so there's that. Smoral is also 24 and 28 respectively.
  7. jwestbrock
    Yesterday was the "Stars and Stripes" camo print inside the "M" for Memorial Day. I presume the "M" cap was chosen because the camo would show better because the T is the only thing in camo in the "TC" cap. The pitcher, I know, picks the jersey top, so by extension, I presume, they pick the cap. Since De Vries grew up in Eden Prairie and grew up with the "M" hat and has fond memories of it, he went that direction in his home debut and busted it out for the first time, I believe, since 2009.
  8. jwestbrock
    By Baxter are you referring to Byron Buxton? Personally I think they should go for both. You can never have enough prospects. Even if it feels like they have a million toolsy outfielders, of Hicks, Benson, Arcia, Morales, Revere, and Span, half will probably not be with the organization by the time Buxton and Cabrera would reach the majors, if they do at all.
  9. jwestbrock
    In his last seven appearances: 9 IP, OR, 4H, 0BB, 18K and looks like he's been getting a fair amount of groundballs.
  10. jwestbrock
    I would think it's Span, Revere, Benson. I really think Benson is behind Mastroianni in the order of call ups because 2 (at minimum) of the four will have to get hurt before they can even think about calling him up because they will want him in the lineup everyday. If Span gets hurt: Revere slides to center and a combination of Plouffe and Doumit play left, Mastroianni gets called up as the fourth outfielder If Revere gets hurt: Plouffe or Doumit play left, Mastroianni gets called up as the fourth outfielder If Willingham gets hurt: Plouffe or Doumit play right, Mastroianni gets called up as the fourth outfielder When we start looking at Span and Revere getting hurt, then you have to call up Benson because otherwise it is Mastroianni everyday in center and I'm not sure how far that would work unless Benson is absolutely struggling in Rochester. In the corners you probably have to go even deeper because Doumit can play the corners and will if someone gets hurt and then I think Parmelee would get the call to DH, but that is looking more at who is hitting at Rochester and whether how Parmelee is hitting and Doumit's glove balance out to be better than what Benson may offer if he is struggling.
  11. jwestbrock
    Dozier-Casilla or Carroll will breakdown or be terrible and he will press the issue, I think Hendricks-there will be a middle infield issue before they give up on Marquis (These two are tossups because I really have a hard time seeing either of them being up very early) Parmalee-seems more likely just because who plays first full-time if Morneau has issues of some sort, Hughes? Plouffe? Mauer? Doumit? Benson-Two of Span, Plouffe, Revere and Willingham will have to get hurt to clear a everyday spot.
  12. jwestbrock
    If this is multiple years, I would go with Kershaw, he's young and not as much wear. For this year alone, I think I would pick Halladay. An aside: where is Felix Hernandez? I know this is from the Strib, but I feel like he should be in this conversation, especially if Lincecum is. Dave: BABIP is not all luck based, they been able to show that there is some ability by pitchers to affect it. Greg Maddux's career BABIP was .281, don't tell me he was lucky for 22 years. Granted Kershaw still probably falls into a small sample size argument, but his only year above .275 BABIP was his rookie year where he only threw 107.2 innings. (I am in no way comparing Kershaw to Maddux just using an example that I knew what a lowish career BABIP)
  13. jwestbrock
    Boesch Willingham Choo Francoeur Rios I think if we redid this vote in two months and Choo was healthy I would have to bump him to the top, but I had to discount half the Twins lineup for (potential) injury concerns, so he losses some for the same reason.
  14. jwestbrock
    The fact Nishioka was -1.4 WAR in only 68 games really speaks volumes for how bad he was. The only people who were worse were Bill Hall (-1.6 in 62 games), Felix Pie (-2.1 in 85 games), and Adam Dunn (-2.9 in 122 games)
  15. jwestbrock
    1) Gordon 2) Young 3) Revere, Brantley, Viciedo Gordon wins, because even if he regresses to his career averages is still provides more than what Delmon has provided in non-2010 years. Delmon is second by default because I'm not sure Brantley or Viciedo provide enough offensively to override Delmon's probable offensive production. Revere's defense will be crazy good minus the arm, but unless he hits .310 I don't know if he'll get on base enough to be enough of a force offensively.
  16. jwestbrock
    But when those average or below average pitchers are not considerably worse than the players with options available, you give them first dibs because it is a decent idea, especially as pitchers are concerned, to keep as many as possible around. Now if we're talking about keeping an Anthony Swarzak-level pitcher instead of a Jonny Venters-level, then I agree completely, but we're picking between pitchers ranging from average to below average.
  17. jwestbrock
    There are 8 with worst LHH HR Park Factors according to that site, but four of the Parks with worse PF's had either and 89 or 90 so only 4 were significantly worse for home runs, but Petco had the worst at 59, so it could be much worse.
  18. jwestbrock
    Cabrera, Moustakus, Chisenhall, Valencia, Morel, whoever replaces Cabrera at third eventually. The middle three are pretty close for me because I think their low ends are all similar, but as far as their high ends, Moustakus can be crazy good and Chisenhall has a bit higher potential than Valencia because "he didn't hit as well as most believe that he will" and still had a higher OPS than Valencia and has a better minor league track record. The drop off between Cabrera and Detroit's alternatives offensively is so huge that it makes sense that they would give him a chance to see if he is passable enough to get by.
  19. jwestbrock
    Cabrera, Ramirez, Peralta, Carroll, Escobar. To me 1 and 2 set apart, but closer together than this poll will end up showing because Cabrera will likely regress some and Ramirez will likely improve closer to his 2010. I give Peralta the edge over Carroll simply based on his bat and Carroll depending on how Carroll adjusts to having Joe Mauer batting behind him instead of the pitcher and how that will affect his OBP. If escobar can hit at all he can move up this ranking at lightspeed.
  20. jwestbrock
    Kipnis, Giavotella, Beckham, Casilla, Inge. I look at it as "would I trade this person looking at both this year and long term?" I would trade Inge for anybody in a heartbeat and I assume the Tigers would as well. I would not trade Kipnis for anyone short of Cano, Pedroia, Kinsler or Weeks, and possibly Ackley. Giavotella gets the second spot based more on his future than necessarily his present, but I think he can conceivably and probably will be the second best second baseman in the AL Central this year anyway. Beckham and Casilla are basically a tossup, I would probably trade Casilla to get Beckham because Beckham will at least likely stay on the field. Two other points, in Fangraphs Position Power Rankings, no AL Central second base squad ranked higher than 19 (Cleveland), that probably says all we need to know anyway, and they have Raburn, not Inge listed, as Detroit's starter, though I'm not sure that would change my rankings much. It might have dropped Casilla to the last spot but that is it.
  21. jwestbrock
    I would argue that looking at the last two years (2010 for sure and 2011 opening day), neither of those lineups were built to play small ball, they were built to play gorilla ball and mash. Those lineups would have been amazing in the Dome. The issue arises that Target Field is among the worst in the majors to hit in for left handed hitters and the Twins had a ton of lefties. I agree that they haven't been playiing small ball and haven't been doing the little things for probably close to 4 years now, but to use the last two years as examples is flawed because those lineups, and Gardy and others have openly stated it to certain degrees, were not built to play small ball, they were built to outscore their opponents, the complete opposite of the early 2000's teams who were more adept at run prevention and scoring just enough to win.
  22. jwestbrock
    Third to last paragraph says Vavra doesn't share all of the data to avoid information overload. While on the surface it may seem ill advised to not inform them of this, with "younger players" they have so much on their plate to know what to expect from the pitchers that having another thought in their mind will only hurt them
  23. jwestbrock
    I think, if everyone can stay relatively healthy that lineup has a chance to be decent. Carroll kind of scares me for the fact that how much of his numbers (specifically OBP) were fueled by hitting in front of the pitcher and getting pitched around? Casilla is Casilla and I think there is a legitimate chance Dozier gets a long look at short because Casilla struggles or gets hurt and Carroll moves to second because he probably fits a bit better defensively over there.
  24. jwestbrock
    To me, MLB logos should look clean and classy and the MiLB logos are the ones that can be fun and a bit cartoony and goofy and I think the Rock Cats' logo does that. But my second favorite is the Miracle logo because it is clean while relaxed, almost like a blend between a good MLB and MiLB logo.
  25. jwestbrock
    I'm pessimistic about this for some reason and I'd have to go with 7 just because his opposite field power is negated 81 games a year. But I do think he'll hit around 40 doubles if healthy.
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