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Mill1634

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Everything posted by Mill1634

  1. Agreed...him being bad at the plate certainly isn't a surprise to me, and I doubt it is to anyone in the FO...and I get giving Jeffers the chance to reset, but Jeffers ceiling is high enough for me to want him up and to grow through the rough patches at the MLB level. I think Rortvedt is what he is. Good defensive catcher, but is a bad hitter, even by catcher standards
  2. I know Jeffers was really bad this year, but I'd much rather see him taking these AB's that Rortvedt is getting. He is lost at the plate.
  3. Was it just me, or did it seem as if Jorge was crowding the plate in that AB more than we've seen in the past
  4. 9 pitches, zero swings and misses. Not a great start. At least he got an out
  5. I agree that this is the most likely scenario, but I'm writing this as if we're 8+ games back at the trade deadline and there isn't any hope of making a comeback in the last 2 months. If that's the case, I think there will be more trades. If the Twins are selling off pieces (Happ, Pineda, Robles), then Simmons will certainly be moved as well.
  6. As I said in my blog, due to Donaldson's injury history and contract, I think he's pretty much unmoveable. I may be wrong on this, but I don't think so. The only way I can see JD being moved is if the Twins are willing to eat a significant portion of the contract, which a. I don't think they would be willing to do, and b. they shouldn't do, as even if this is a 'lost' year, they don't need to punt on next season. The Twins won't, nor should they, trade anyone prior to this 6 game stretch against the Sox. As unlikely as it is, a 5-1 or 6-0 gets you right back to where we thought we'd be in regards to being in the hunt.
  7. Roster Move The Minnesota Twins activated 2B/OF Luis Arraez prior to the first game of the series against the White Sox. Arraez was placed on the 7-day concussion IL last week after colliding with a catcher on a play at home. Arraez missed the minimum amount of games possible, which is a good thing for both himself and Arraez. The Twins sent down MIF Nick Gordon to Saint Paul (AAA) to clear space on the 26 man roster. Gordon appeared in one game, where he reached based 3 times and stole two bags. The Pitchers RHP Kenta Maeda (2-2, 5.02 ERA, 28 K's, 28.2 IP) vs RHP Dylan Cease (2-0, 2.37 ERA, 40 K's, 30.1 IP) If you were to look at these two names prior to the game, you would think there was a mistake and the numbers should be flip flopped. Kenta was coming off a cy young caliber year, and Cease looked like an AAAA arm that couldn't find the strike zone. However, Cease has improved a ton in 2021, and Maeda has taken a step backwards. Maeda was good his last time out, but has struggled with command that we saw him dominate 2020 lineups with. Cease has always had really good stuff, but struggled throwing completive pitches to put together a quality game. He's still walking a lot of hitters at 4.5 per 9 innings, but is striking out nearly 12 per 9. Cease has only given up 2 HR in 30 innings, while last year he gave up 12 in 58 innings thrown. Cease relies on an upper 90's fastball, which he throws over half the time. Cease works his slider off the fastball, which is only getting hit at a .212 clip. He'll mix in a curveball and changeup, but he throws both less than 10% of the time. If the Twins are patient, they should be able to draw walks. The Lineups Twins LF Luis Arraez (L) 3B Josh Donaldson DH Nelson Cruz CF Max Kepler (L) 2B Jorge Polanco (S) RF Trevor Larnach (L) 1B Willians Astudillo SS Andrelton Simmons C Ben Rortvedt (L) White Sox SS Tim Anderson RF Adam Eaton (L) 3B Yoan Moncada (S) 1B Jose Abreu DH Yermin Mercedes C Yasmani Grandal (S) LF Andrew Vaughn CF Leury Garcia (S) 2B Nick Madrigal Much like the Twins missing Byron Buxton and Alex Kiriloff, the White Sox are without their two best outfielders in Eloy Jiminez and Luis Robert. The top of the White Sox is very good, but the bottom half, much like the Twins, struggles to put much of anything together. Arraez is once back in the leadoff spot, and Max Kepler slides up to the 4 hole, playing CF. I think this is the best outfield that the Twins can put together without Byron Buxton and Alex Kiriloff, but the defense will be an adventure at times. Trevor Larnach gets his second start of the season, this time playing right field. La Tortuga gets the start at 1B over Miguel Sano, which I am just fine with. Rortvedt gets the start behind the dish, which is not shocking as the Twins will see two lefties the next two nights. The Sox will start a fellow rookie in LF, Andrew Vaughn, who has been up and down, but is a top prospect. Vegas Odds: Twins -105, White Sox -118, O/U 7.5 This Day in History - 2016: Max Scherzer ties a major league mark when he strikes out 20 batters in a nine-inning game, joining Roger Clemens (1986, 1996 Red Sox), Kerry Wood (1998 Cubs), and Randy Johnson (2001 Diamondbacks). The 31 year-old right-hander, who goes the distance in Washington's 3-2 victory over the Tigers at Nationals Park, has an opportunity to establish a new record with two out in the ninth, but James McCann grounds into a force out at second base to end the contest. Pick to Click: Kenta Maeda finds his good stuff, going 7 strong innings allowing only 2 runs, striking out 9. Prediction: Twins 5, White Sox 3 Go Twins!!
  8. Thus far I have the following being traded: Pineda (expiring) Happ (expiring) Duffey (1 year of arb remaining) Garver (2 years of arb remaining, I am not super confident in him being moved but lean more towards yes than no) Colome (expiring) Robles (expiring) If the Twins do decide that they are not competitive come July, I think all expiring guy would be moved, besides maybe Pineda if they take this as a retooling year and want to extend him.
  9. I have released the second part of this three part series, which features some 'core' pieces like Max Kepler and Mitch Garver. I also attempted to list some prospects I could see coming in return if the hypothetical destination comes to fruition.
  10. Following the disappointing series loss to the Texas Rangers, I released part one of my trade value rankings of current Major Leaguers on the Twins roster. The first part of this series was littered with names that are either unlikely to be moved, like Josh Donaldson, or by players who wouldn't fetch much in return like Alex Colome. However, the Twins have plenty of talent on this team that have the potential to get a good haul of prospects or young MLB talent in return, and you will start to see some of those names today. As I said a few days ago, there is a chance that the Twins turn it around, but going 1-1 against Detroit doesn't help. 11. LH SP J.A. Happ Happ was signed on a one year deal this past offseason, and the salary is modest at only 8 million dollars. By the time Happ will be moved, there will be less than five million left on the hook for the southpaw. Much like Robles, the odds that Happ is moved if the Twins continue down this path is extremely likely. Happ has pitched very well thus far, earning 0.8 WAR in 28.1 IP. Happ isn't getting the strikeouts that he has in the past at only 5.1 per 9 innings, but he's limiting hard contact, and doesn't give away free passes. He can fit in as a number three or four starter for a playoff team, and the prospect return would be modest, likely between 15-20 MLB pipeline ranking, depending on the farm system strength. Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers Possible Prospects: SS Eduardo Garcia (8, instructional league) 10. LH RF Max Kepler Kepler was another rebound hopefully that the front office had faith in, and rightfully so. Kepler had a breakout year in 2019, and was a main cog at the top of the order. However, he fell off in 2020, OPSing only .760, which is only a hair above league average. 2021 hasn't been any kinder to the German outfielder, hitting only .213. Another issue with Max is that his strikeout rate has climbed 3% since 2019 to 21%. Max is still a very good corner outfielder, and has been using his legs on the base-path more than we've seen in the past with four stolen bases. However, Kepler is signed through 2023, and has a team option in the 2024 season. The money isn't outrageous at an average of of 8.5M, but the length may scare some teams away if he truly is only a league average outfielder. Prediction: Not moved 9. RH C Mitch Garver Mitch Garver was an MVP candidate in 2019 due to his rare power behind the plate. Garver had an insane home run per at bat rate at 9.9%, while being an above average pitch framer. He also took home the Silver Slugger award for his prowess at the plate. However, much like many other Twins on this list, Garver struggled in 2020. We know Garver was battling an injury, and much like Jorge Polanco, we assumed that all would be fine in 2021. While the power has reappeared for the right hander, he is still swinging and missing a lot, and the pitch framing is more average than good now. When Garver hits the ball, he hits it extremely hard, but at this point he is more of a boom or bust type of hitter than anything else. Garver is still under team control in 2022 and 2023 at a cheap salary, which makes him more valuable to buying teams. I believe that if the Twins continue to struggle this season, Garver will be moved and the Twins will attempt to build around Ryan Jeffers. Prediction: Atlanta Braves Possible Prospects: LHP Tucker Davidson (7, AAA), LHP Kyle Muller (10, AAA), S OF Michael Harris (13, A+) 8. RH RP Tyler Duffey Duffey was one of the best relievers in baseball the past few years and had the trust of manager Rocco Baldelli as the 'fireman' arm. We often saw Duffey come into high leverage spots in the middle of games, and Duffey would get out of the inning without allowing a run. We've seen Tyler get the same opportunities into 2021, but like the rest of the Twins bullpen arms, he is not having the same success at stranding inherited runners. Duffey has one more year of team control remaining, so it is possible that the Twins take this up as a 'retooling" year, as Duffey would only be in line to make between 3-4 million dollars in 2022. However, this extra year of team control makes him more attractive to a potential buyer. I think if the Twins can fight back to a few games below .500 by the ASG, the Twins will opt to keep Duffey, but if they're 5+ games out, he'll be moved. Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies Possible Prospects: RH OF Yhoswar Garcia (14, R), RHP Eduar Segovia (21, A) 7. RH SP Michael Pineda (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio) The final player on the second edition of this list is Michael Pineda, better known around Twins territory as Big Mike. Pineda was brought in while recovering from an arm injury, and then was hit with a PED suspension, but Pineda has been as consistent of a mid-rotation starter as you'll find. He's not going to get a ton of strikeouts, but you know he's going to give you at least five good innings and keep your team in the ballgame. Pineda is on an expiring deal which will limit the prospect return, but he's a definite playoff starter on any rotation in the league (besides the Dodgers, doesn't count). Much like J.A. Happ, I expect Pineda to be dealt barring a drastic turnaround. Prediction: New York Yankees Possible Prospects: RH P Luis Medina (6, A+), RH 2B Ezequiel Duran (8, A+), RH SS Anthony Volpe (14, A) Note: All prospect rankings come from Fangraphs.
  11. Sad and bad loss. The hitters hit the ball hard and had plenty of opportunities against some very poor pitchers and never came through. Nice to see Polo getting hot once again, as a positive. Larnach hit the ball hard a few times as well. Sano is so lost right now and is easily the least confident at bat no matter the lineup as a fan. I think you have to give willians a few chances while AK is gone, he gets a bad rap from some, but his numbers are much better than Miggys. Berrios certainly wasn’t right today, but he battled and did enough to win. Duffey has been such a disappointment. Law was set up for failure coming into that situation. The bats can heat up and the pitchers can start going deeper into games, but with this collection of bullpen arms right now, no lead feels comfortable even against the Tigers.
  12. CAVEMAN!!!! Great play...also...that baserunning was Gross, Man
  13. Sano is just so lost at the plate right now, I have zero idea what you do with him.
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