scottz

nice. i'm laughing over here. all i can imagine is Gardy walking in with a cardboard cutout of the female owner from "Major League".

While I get the analogy and agree that the timing couldn't really have been worse, I can't go so far as to say this is in any way equivalent to the Maritime Law of leaving those in your charge in harm's way. There are many professions in the world, and for those of us who have a job that allows us leave for family time, it is a perk that is greatly appreciated. I believe that MLB instituting bereavement and paternity-type allowances, and individual ballclubs allowing their coaches and players to take time away for family matters is nothing but a good thing. I hope Gardy is able to enjoy the ceremony and give his daughter a big hug and tell her how proud he is of her, and I hope his attendance gives her a memory that lasts her entire lifetime. I think it is time for the Twins to move on front current field staff, but Gardy going to his daughter's graduation has no place in that discussion. Respectfully, scottz

John ol' buddy ol' pal...there is optimism and there is delusion, and I'm sorry to suggest that you're on the wrong side of the tracks here. In order for this team to get to 86 wins (my definition of "compete", as that is the mark I have in mind as the lowest possible number of wins needed for the 2nd wild card team), this squad would have to go 80-58 from here on out. That's a .580 clip, which is currently only being played by 7 teams (Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Texas, Washington, Atlanta, St. Louis, and the LA Dodgers). It would absolutely take a miracle to compete.

Kinda surprised that no one has broke up Mauer's foul-ball knee in this thread. My guess is Joe might not be behind the plate for a few days and Gardy wants a catcher on hand to back up Doumit. So if Butera catches Pavano every 5th day until Mauer is fully healed and Morneau returns from the Twin Cities or the DL - whichever the case - then this move seems justified to me. If Butera hangs around once Mauer's knee is better, then I will join the angst.

I like your optimism, but your logic is flawed. Getting to .500 - even if that occurs (requires a 75-66 record, a .532 clip) - would finish out of the 2nd wild card anywhere from 5-10 games, which to me seems like not truly competing (though it would be a more enjoyable season). Actually competing for the wild card - getting to 86 wins, minimum - would mean going 80-61 the rest of the way (.567). That just doesn't seem likely with this rotation, even if the starters improve en masse. So, my answer has to be, "it's bad".

Just kick me in the balls already and scrape me off the ground when the season is over. What a farce to, boy oh boy, get Brandon Freaking Inge on the squad. Boy that'll learn that Valencia to be so smug, won't it? For anyone who doesn't understand people, when you try to motivate someone like Valencia (if we can agree he is flamboyant and at least a little arrogant) by showing them someone not clearly better and saying "that guy is going to take your job", you will get no improvement. A guy like Valencia will see the lesser player (currently Burroughs, now perhaps Inge), and know that if you actually go ahead and replace him, you are shooting yourself in the foot, and he'll shake his head at how stupid you are for doing it. He certainly isn't going to bear down. Anyway, once we sign Inge, just track me down and tell me it is time, then make it a good square shot to the boys as hard as you can. I'll be the guy in the fetal position.

Yeah, I hear what you're saying. However, I think the Twins pitching is in such rough shape right now, that they are going to have to be aggressive with their selections. If there's an obvious best player on the board, yes, I agree, go ahead and take that guy. But if it is a toss-up between a power arm who might join the MLB team in 2 years and a position player who might join the team in 4-5 years, I think you have to go with the arm. If we're being honest with ourselves, there are very few "sure things" in baseball anyway, and so the numbers we're talking about (11% elite in the first round) is probably within the error bars of a "good draft" anyway. Why not take a shot? If not, the reality is that we're punting on making a run in the Joe Mauer era, unless they are crazy aggressive in free agency with pitchers. I expect them to pick up 1 FA starter, and I hope they pick up 2, but I don't think they will. And if you aren't going to do that, you need a starter to come from somewhere. Thoughts?

All I know is, other than a very few of the names mentioned (eg., Dan Reichert, Sean Lowe), just about anybody on that list could have stepped onto this roster and make an improvement to our rotation. Even if we ended up with a Charles Nagy or Rick Helling as a starter in 2 years, it would be an improvement over what we see here currently. If 78% of college pitchers taken in the top 25 picks over the last 31 years have made the bigs [(222-49)/222], and presumably made it fairly quickly, then that sounds like a pretty solid risk to me.

I think where thrylos is right is that unless they fixed the rotation, this year was going to be a rebuilding year. However, I think management was hoping that the starters would be serviceable with an added innings eater (Marquis), and a healthy Mauer and Morneau along with the stopgaps of Willingham and Caroll would be enough to hide the rebuilding year with a team that perhaps could have played .500 ball. I don't think that's a wholly unacceptable plan - it would help keep fans happy - but that plan has blown up in their faces thus far, as a single major injury (Baker), a couple of missed starts (Marquis, Blackburn), and an immense head-block (Liriano) has exposed the lack of quality arms in the system in the same way that the injuries last year exposed a lack of quality position players. They have been fooled twice, so shame on them as the saying goes. All that said, I don't think that it is impossible that next year would mark a dramatic turnaround for the better, but it absolutely requires an infusion of talent in the starting rotation. Getting one starter off the free agent market is mandatory, and it is looking more and more as though two is necessary. Two seems so out of character with the franchise's mentality that I don't have a strong inkling that would occur. But given the performance and obvious signs of the last two years, they have to consider all things. If they aren't planning on aggressive spending in the FA starting pitching market this coming offseason, then they should have blown it up exactly as thrylos suggested, in my opinion. If they are planning on FA spending, then what they did makes sense to me.

No. Keep him catching with regular "off" days at 1B and/or DH or even OF again if a scenario comes up where that makes sense. It would be nice to have a real solution at 3B hanging around to perhaps push Valencia some, but I don't think it is Mauer. Long term, I'm hoping Sano sticks at 3B.

I cut them some slack due to injury (Baker and less so Blackburn) and accident (Marquis). Those breaks aren't on anyone, and appreciate that Ryan told Marquis to go and take as much time with his daughter as needed. I cut no slack on Liriano, either to the pitcher himself or to staff. If his problems are upstairs, then he needs a sports psychologist or someone who can motivate him. But it has been too long, and something needs to happen. Cutting slack is what they have been doing thus far with Liriano, and it doesn't work when something needs to change. I thought the Clete Thomas pickup was great, except that they are playing him regularly. I don't know what the story is with Plouffe, but if he's on the roster, play him in RF and let him prove he belongs or not. Clete Thomas should be the 4th-5th OFer, not the 3rd. Valencia needs to step up as well, but if he doesn't, it isn't like they have a good 3B solution waiting in the wings. Casilla needs to step up or Dozier gets his shot. We'll see how this plays out, so I guess I'm cutting slack there, as long as they have a plan for a decision on that point. I didn't think they would compete this year, so they need to make decisions. Liriano is making that decision easier. Play Plouffe regularly so you can make a decision on him. Casilla's clock is running. Valencia's is probably running too. If they get answers to these question marks, then I'm ok with this season tanking. I also am assuming they will sign a FA pitcher this offseason who is better than a Marquis-level starter. Rotation next year: FA signee, Pavano (give him a 1 or 2 year deal if he gives us another year like the last 1-2), Blackburn, Hendriks, Gibson. If they sign 2 pitchers, great, but that's a pipe dream, so I'll cut slack assuming they'll sign 1. If they don't sign 1, then I have no idea what they are doing.

love these write-ups...thank you! is it too early to talk about moving Sano up a level? it is, isn't it? yeah, yeah it is. but is it? ahhh...let's just do it. let's move him up. ok then, we agree. Sano moves up a level to see what he can do. ok? ok. good talk.

I love the Twins, too, but I can't see this team as "this close" either. I think the offense classifies as "this close", assuming this close means being a playoff-ready offense. But even if Liriano got straightened out - and that seems like a big if right now - what else is getting us close? Baker is out, Blackburn is ache-y and even if he weren't, the improvements he seemed to be making would turn him into a #2-3 pitcher at best (compared to the #4-5 that he historically has been). Pavano is an innings eater and nice to have around, but also not a true #1. Hendriks? Swarzak? I just don't see where they are close on the pitching side.

First of all, I don't think I said I expected them to sign anyone for big money. I do think they'll sign a free agent pitcher for reasonably big money this offseason, for a few reasons. 1) Our starting pitching is notably weak, and I don't think it is possible to fill from within in 2013. Perhaps Hendriks and Gibson (assuming a full recovery) are in the rotation in 2013. Perhaps they offer Pavano a one year deal with a club option. Blackburn, assuming he is healthy makes 4. I think they grab a FA to round out the 5th spot (not the 5th starter). 2) The FA market should have more quality starters this coming offseason compared to last offseason. If you took the FA's from last offseason and listed the (very subjective) top 10, you might have found: Kuroda, Buehrle, Wilson, Bedard, Colon, Harang, Tomko, Francis, Willis, and our very own Marquis. If you look at potential FA's for this coming offseason, you have these guys: Cain, Greinke, Hamels, Lewis, Marcum, McCarthy, Anibel Sanchez - there are others as well with options that may or may not be used: De La Rosa, Floyd, Haren, Hudson, Myers, Ervin Santana, Shields, and others. Other than the Kuroda, Buehrle, and Wilson, I'd much rather take ANY of this coming offseason's potential FA's over those from this last offseason's. There are other FA starters too for next year that would be equivalent or better than those from this last offseason (Correia, Guthrie, Lowe, Matsuzaka, etc.). It is a good market for buyers this coming offseason. I think the Twins will be in on it. Atypical from their previous ways, but I think they are in an atypical situation as far as the arms go. I don't think they'll be offering any 5-6 year deals, but a 3-4 year deal is not far-fetched for the higher end guys on this list (I don't think). I think the plan right now has to be for 2014 and 2015, and the anchor arm for those teams should be available this offseason. Maybe you're right and they don't do anything. But I think they will.

I don't think the only reason the Twins lost 99 games last year was due to injuries, though it certainly factored in. I think the 2011 Twins limiting factors were (in no particular order): 1) injuries 2) the bad scouting/signing of Nishioka 3) career dips for a number of healthy players (pretty much everyone but Cuddyer) 4) glaringly thin reserves pool, made apparent by #1 5) substandard starting pitching So this year: 1) a) they made some orgizational changes in the medical department, hope they stay healthy 2) cut their ML losses on Nishioka, signed Carroll as a stopgap, and plan on Dozier being here this year or next 3) made the decision to cut loose Cuddyer, Kubel, Young (sell-low trade), and Nathan. stopgaps in Willingham, Plouffe, and now Clete Thomas in the OF. 4) this takes time to remedy. 5) this takes time to remedy (4 of the 5 starters from last year are starters this year). because of 3, payroll goes down. because of 4 and 5, it will stay down next year, likely, while they build for the future. 2014 or 2015 has to be the plan, and to be the best they can be then, it doesn't make any sense to overspend now. who were we going to sign? Buerhle? would that have helped? it's not being an apologist to think they are thinking longer term as a business decision.

It isn't like the end of the year comes, they balance the books and say "we made $20 million dollars! Here's yours, here's yours, here's mine. Now, let's start at zero again." Any business plays by the rules allowed to it and tries to come out ahead (and rules are different for different businesses - i.e., exemptions and public subsidies in baseball but not for shoe store companies). They need cash on hand to pay people and they need cash in the bank for future plans. If they can sign player A (Willingham) for less than player B (Cuddyer) and get similar production, they'll do it. If that means the payroll gets lower, that improves the business because then they can put more money into signing draft picks or increasing a scouting budget or whatever other things they decide on. It's not a regular business, but it absolutely is business.

That long term ROI doesn't pay the daily bills, the salaries, etc. The short term ROI is what does that, and it certainly is reasonable to budget for a profit in order to do so. Although I'm sure we'd have to agree on what "reasonable" means for this aspect of the conversation to go anywhere. Who gets to decide what reasonable means?

I could see them signing a free agent pitcher this offseason, depending on who all is available and what the market is like. I don't think they'll sign any bats. This past offseason was the stopgap year for position players (Willingham, Carroll, Doumit).

I think it is difficult as a fan to see the big picture when it comes to payroll. It certainly could appear like management is taking the money and running by having a 17% decrease in payroll, but every business has to do a comprehensive review and make a plan for going forward. It wouldn't be illogical to think that management looked at a 99-loss team and decided they needed a plan that just maybe saved a few bucks on the ML roster in 2012 so they could build for 2013 and 2014, knowing there were too many holes to fill to be competitive in 2012. Maybe the plan is to save a few bucks for 2012 AND 2013 to build for 2014 and 2015. Who knows what the plan is? They do. If you don't like the squad enough that you don't want to go to games because the payroll is slashed, or they are 3-7, or whatever, don't go. I assume they have that worked into the plan, too. I expect the next time we make a DEEP run it will be in 2015. If everything works out right, maybe 2014. And the payroll might not be super high then either, as guys like Sano et al will be generally pretty low on the pay scale.

1. Eight Men Out 2. Bull Durham 3. Field of Dreams 4. A League of Their Own 5. Major League

No. That ship went to sea a long time ago.

I agree with the part where you think you might be naive. The fact that they were able to sign him for the minimum + 400K in incentives tells you that no one else was offering anything significantly better. So right there, they already stepped up to the plate in the "give a guy a break" world. When the incentives aren't met because of a new injury (like this one) or inability, then the Twins have every right to save themselves 400K. What's the problem? It's a contract both parties agreed to and they have no contractual or moral responsibility to do anything else. Just because 400K looks small compared to a $100 million contract, that doesn't mean that there isn't value in saving 400K.

In the Star Trib article addressing the same thing, Morneau is quoted as saying, "Everything has been pretty good since January, I'd say." It is February now. I'm pretty sure that in January somewhere on the Caravan, he said that everything had been pretty good since December. So, he's having concussion symptoms every month. Which means he hasn't been symptom-free...maybe ever since the last one. It sure looks like he's going the way of Koskie. Sad.