Shane Wahl

It might translate to a few wins a year. Some people make light of that. I don't!

Turner to AA, Garver to A+, Fernandez and Navarreto to A ball. Garver should (hopefully) force his way to AA for the second half of the season. Maybe Turner produces nicely and moves to AAA at some point.

Also, thinking about Mauer somewhere means that someone else must be better suited to hit second (or first). It just isn't clear who that would be. With Buxton around, I do think that I would love a lineup of Mauer-Buxton-Sano-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Rosario-Pinto-Hicks at some point in September.

False. He hit into 12 last year. 7 the year before (with great OPS). 23 the year before (with great OPS). What are you even talking about here? Why does this continue to persist at TD? It's been demonstrated to be false again and again and again.

Yep, Brock. While there is some legitimacy in the argument that Mauer hits to left so much that he isn't moving runners from first to third or second to home on singles, this still revolves around the notion that the Twins are then going to have runners on first and second or first and third with nobody out in the first inning if Mauer is batting second. The very setup to the scenario makes me like the scenario enough to not worry about it too much. First innings with Santana (1) and Mauer (2) both on base are going to be great first innings. I do like the idea of having a base stealer ahead of Mauer, so that is why I like the idea of seeing how Santana does leading off at the beginning of the season. I still want Mauer second and someone who can smack bombs batting third (Dozier vs. lefties, Arcia vs. righties).

Ulgh. The dude (Mauer) seems to hit into more double plays simply because you expect him to do more since he is a great batter. The numbers are not that egregious. The OBP necessitates him batting first or second. I don't understand any other claim about batting third or anywhere else. Maybe in a few years if the OBP drops compared to other players, he can bat sixth. This conversation is quickly degenerating into certain claims about Mauer that are just not consistent with reality.

Wow. First off, cheers to Rickey Henderson, who absolutely would have been the best player in baseball in the past 15 years. Also, Wade Boggs. I am not going to share with you his BB/K numbers. Look that up for yourself and be amazed. Those two represent some some pretty elite players who both were elite leadoff hitters when used there and yet had somewhat different numbers. The walks matter most, obviously, but the doubles-power of Boggs made up for the homers-power of Henderson. I can't understand how steals-caught stolen doesn't ultimately matter more. And I mean aside from the intangible impact on pitchers, catchers, and defense generally that a speedster can have on the bases. Depending on context, it can be almost the same as making a single into a double. It can also remove double play opportunities. On the other hand, it can obviously mean nothing . . . but so can a double or triple if the run doesn't score. I don't really understand this fully to comment in a better fashion.

Barely below the 5th guy. One reason for this is control over the lineup in the first few innings is obviously more possible. If 1st and 2nd are the two best, it makes sense that 4th and 5th are next two, and with more power. The 3rd spot being a power guy makes a lot of sense, especially given how often he will bat in the first with 2 outs and no one on base--a home run threat is a much more efficient way to score than to have Joe Mauer up with 2 outs and no one on base.

Haha. Nice. Maybe I should too. I abandoned that idea since that last "manager" was in charge. It still might be too much for Molitor though! Of course, if Santana falls significantly at all, there is no one left, in my view, but Mauer, unless Hicks starts hitting.

Did anyone actually look at the article I linked to? I still marvel at any lineup with Mauer batting third . . .

That's depressing.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by Somewhat useful. Best three overall bat 1,2, and 4. 5 and 3, in that order, are next. Power should be found mainly in your 3 and 4 guys, with 5 being more of a doubles type. Not sure how one plugs in Twins players here, other than Mauer batting second. It's just hard to think lineups right now because so many guys haven't really solidified their approaches (Santana, Vargas, Arcia, and Hicks), one is in serious decline (Hunter), one possibly in serious decline (Suzuki), and then there are Mauer, Dozier, and Plouffe.

I probably flip Dozier and Arcia against righties, but yeah.

I did mean a A+ season with that OPS. Point taken, though. I definitely don't think it is clear that he starts in AA, though I would do that.

I still honestly do not see anything in Twins history, at least recent history, that would indicate Rosario starting in AAA after really dropping in overall performance at AA. Even if "league average" he still is nowhere near his career minor league numbers. The Twins value AA more than AAA, clearly. I mean, maybe some just want Rosario to be in AAA, and that's fine. Two cautionary tales, however. One, the Twins are going to think differently. Two, Aaron Hicks. Hicks smacked AA pitching fairly well in 2012. Rosario isn't even close to that, and we are not talking about him being the Twins second baseman. The only thing that worries me about Harrison is the Parmelee comparison, and Parmelee hit much better in the minors than Harrison has.

The first two entries in this series focused on players who are moving up in the system and the question is one of advancing to AA baseball, which is really (Jorge Polanco 2014 aside) the real first glimpse of closeness to the majors that a minor leaguer can see. For the final installment, I am turning to another major step in the system--full season A ball--and am profiling catcher Brian Navarreto as a "push candidate" for promotion to Cedar Rapids. The Player Brian Navarreto is 20 years old (DOB: December 29, 1994) and is 6'4", 220+ pounds. He was drafted in the 6th round of the 2013 draft out of Arlington Country Day School in Jacksonville, Florida. He has played in only 73 games in the Twins organization. He bats right handed and is a superb defensive catcher. Navarreto has played in both rookie levels in the organization and it might be time for him to move on up to full-season baseball. The Situation While his defense has been excellent, his bat faltered in his time in Elizabethon in 2014. His 2013 season was decent at the plate, with a .683 OPS in 158 plate appearances for the Gulf Coast Twins. Moving to Elizabethon in 2014 meant that Navarreto was going to face more ex-college level pitching and he did struggle. In 116 plate appearances, he posted a .194/.241/.370 (.612) line, with eight doubles, one triple, three homers, seven walks, and 33 strikeouts. He did pound lefties for a .930 OPS, however. He is getting closer and closer to major league ready as a defender. He threw out a whopping 59% (16 for 27) of runners in 2014. It would seem to make sense to move him to Cedar Rapids to catch the next level of pitcher, and let his bat come along more slowly if need be. The Possibilities Navarreto could easily return to Extended Spring Training and then report to Elizabethon to work on his offense. He could also just move up to Cedar Rapids, with the Twins not worried about his bat catching up soon enough. He has good power and should continue to improve offensively. Moving to Cedar Rapids would mean pairing with Jorge Fernandez behind the plate. Often times it makes sense to have a prospect and then an organizational catcher at each level, but I think both Fernandez and Navarreto deserve their time in Cedar Rapids. Both of them could fly up prospect lists after solid 2015 seasons in A ball. The two of them have time at first base in the minors and they are appropriately sized as well for the position to get on the field that way as well. I would expect Cedar Rapids to keep both in the lineup every day between catcher, first base, and designated hitter. Conclusion This wraps up the three-part feature on three players in the system who I think should be pushed to the next level for 2015. Walker and Harrison can find time in AA Chattanooga and that destination is going to be pretty malleable roster-wise with prospects like Buxton, Sano, Rosario, and Polanco likely moving up to AAA quickly. Navarreto is still raw and needs development, but is excellent defensively and has intriguing power potential. All three players are at crucial times in development: Walker and Harrison need to improve various aspects of their approach at the plate to fine-tune their game, and Navarreto needs to get more comfortable and to get more at bats to take the next step toward top-20 prospect material.

How often have the Twins ever promoted someone to AAA after they did not do very well in AA? Rosario was great in the AFL. But that is also relying on SSS once again. I can't believe that I am the one talking about applying some brakes here!

I guess for those days that Sano is DHing, Michael can move over to 3B and Rosario can get his 2B time in that way. I do think that Chattanooga should just load up and they should get their real prospects AA time even if means a pinch hit plate appearance once in awhile instead of full games at A+. The difference between those two levels is very significant.

Yes, that's Dalton Hicks instead of Aaron. D. Hicks is a 1B/DH prospect with a decent bat. I agree that some of the issue revolves around roster space, but I still see a clear way for all of these guys to be up at AA Chattanooga where I think they belong. Somebody has to DH, and that can move around. The most recent news indicates that Harrison's time at 3B is now totally over. This is very unfortunate for him and his future in this organization. Anyway, Buxton-Rosario-Walker-Harrison-Kepler-D. Hicks can all be on the roster between the three OFs, DH, and one bench spot to work in. I would imagine that Rosario moves fairly quickly to AAA before moving to MLB.

The second of three articles featuring players who I believe should be "pushed" to the next level in the system will focus on Travis Harrison. Harrison had some high expectations placed on him after being drafted and has moved through the system in the same way that Adam Walker has. There are still a number of question marks about Harrison's potential, both in the field and at the plate.I do think that the Chattanooga Lookouts roster has room for both Walker and Harrison, and thus I think that there are more arguments in favor of Harrison's promotion to AA than there are for keeping him in A+ to start the year. That said, his prospect status is certainly starting to drop. Some of this is probably the result of an influx of top talent in the system, but some falls on Harrison as well. The Player Travis Harrison is 22 years old (DOB: October 17, 1992) and is 6'1" 215+ pounds. He was drafted in the first round (50th) of the 2011 draft out of Tustin High School in Tustin, California. He has played in 318 games, with about 60% coming at 3B, 30% in left field, and 10% as a DH or pinch hitter. He bats from the right side. Expected to display substantial power, he has not actually done so thus far in his career. Harrison has progressed one step at a time from rookie ball through A+ ball and now is at an interesting point in his career. The Situation Harrison was considered to be a power-hitting third baseman coming out of high school, but a player who also was likely to end up playing first base. In 2012 in Elizabethton, he posted an .845 OPS in 253 plate appearances. In 2013 for Cedar Rapids, he impressed with a .253/.366/.416 (.782) line, with 28 doubles and 15 homers. He was quite young for the league and this was a big step. He did strike out 125 times, but also walked 68 times in 537 plate appearances. Moving to Fort Myers in 2014, he again had 537 plate appearances. His numbers for the year were .269/.361/.365 (.726), with 34 doubles, one triple, three homers, 64 walks, and 86 strikeouts. He also stole seven bases in 12 attempts. There are some similarities, then, between 2013 and 2014. His BA and OBP are very close, he added only a few doubles in 2014, and he walked roughly the same number of times. Notice, however, a very interesting difference between Harrison and Adam Walker. Harrison's home run power was nowhere to be found in 2014, but he also greatly reduced his strikeouts. Perhaps this was an effort to become a more complete batter. The contrast with Walker is rather striking. There are two very different approaches here, and it will be interesting to watch them each make adjustments in 2015. The general thinking is that the power is still there for Harrison. The doubles certainly may attest to that. Harrison's move to the OF is due to some significant trouble at third base, obviously. First base may have been the original second position that many had in mind, and it still might (and should) be an option. Right now, I would think that all four corner positions should be kept in view for Harrison as he moves forward. The Possibilities A .726 OPS for a corner OF is not great, however, so "moving forward" might not happen immediately. Harrison certainly could use some time in Fort Myers, one supposes, to slug his way out of such a middling performance. Furthermore, maybe Harrison should stay in Ft. Myers to work on his defense without the added pressure of raising offense when moving up another level. On the other hand, Harrison did improve important offensive aspects and the power can still come back. I worry that he is following a Chris Parmelee path of development in terms of concentrating on contact and good at-bats at the expense of power, but I do think the discipline at the plate propels him forward in the eyes of the Twins. Harrison should be able to demonstrate at minimum moderate improvement with a move out of the FSL and into the Southern League. Sticking at 3B would have been ideal. I do think that he should still get some time there, but it seems that a shift across the diamond to 1B, after his time in the OF, is going to happen. Chattanooga does have room on its roster for both Harrison and Walker, even with Kepler, Rosario, Sano, and Hicks also on the roster. Harrison's prospect status has dropped over the past few years from near top-10 to high teens or low-mid 20s in some rankings. He can move back up prospect lists with a good year in 2015, especially if he can keep the plate discipline while getting 12-15 homers. It isn't clear what the long-term future is for Harrison. While he has fallen on Twins lists, he still would be a borderline top-10 prospect for the majority of teams in baseball. With a good season in 2015, he then could be very attractive for other teams looking for a promising bat. We do not know what sort of scenario would find the Twins trading away any prospects in 2015, but maybe the Twins season will be good enough to warrant such consideration in the next offseason. In any event, I would like to see Harrison move up to Chattanooga and see what he can do with what he learned in 2014. He still can be a breakout kind of player and such a season would provide the Twins with even more quality prospect depth going forward. Click here to view the article

No independent verification of the weight. I don't trust Reusse at all, about anything. Also, Vargas has been in camp working out from the get-go this spring. Not worried at all. He also played through this winter, casting more doubt on this claim by Reusse.

Vargas has been in FTM for awhile working out though.

There is a range here: Power doesn't come and his defense forces a move to 1B (terrible outlook) Power doesn't come and his defense forces a move to the OF (bad outlook) Power doesn't come and he steadies himself as a third baseman (ok outlook) Power does come and his defense forces a move to 1B (ok outlook) Power does come and his defense forces a move to the OF (good outlook) Power does come and he steadies himself as a third baseman (great outlook) These things even out to me, so that is why he is a 18-24ish prospect in my view right now (I think I had him as high as 10 or 11). That said, the ceiling is still there and that is why I think the Twins should have a particular approach to him that involves sending him to AA, even if he spends two seasons there.

I agree about pitches/at bat. I doubt that we will find that. In the long run, I can see Walker spending all of 2015 and 2016 in AA (until September). 2017 starts in AAA and then it all happens from there.