IndianaTwin

You realize they are on pace for 91 wins, right? And that virtually every team with that many wins makes the playoffs? Or that they have the second-best record in baseball over the last 70 games? Yes, I know they have to count the first 18 as well, but I tend to put about 3.89 times more credence in a 70-game sample than an 18-game sample? (Apologies for the mathy stuff.)

Send Miranda back to St. Paul. Lazy fly ball to left. Seriously, that was impressive.

Royce Pipp?

Brain cramp while typing late at night. The post I was responding to referenced Stewart and I used that instead of Okert. It doesn’t really change the overall thought process I walked through, however, since I don’t think he’d want to use his highest-level lefty in the situations I was describing.

Correa’s first contract comes to mind. 😄 But I’m generally on board with what you are saying. We obviously never know what the real “budget” is and how firm it is, beyond the generalities named by front office personnel. But what we do know is… They have seemed averse to long-term contracts, particularly for pitchers. Though a decent amount will come off the books in 2025, they have some significant increases coming as well. Namely Lopez and guys starting to hit arbitration (Jax, Ryan, Ober, Duran and Lewis are S1 this offseason.) Of current guys, only Vazquez comes off the books in 2026. The big three of Correa, Lopez and Buxton. More guys hit arbitration and that quintet hits S2. In that context, it’s really hard for me to see many multi-year contracts to free agents. Maybe two-year deals. With their history, I can see one-years with options. Hopefully some buying out of a year or two of arbitration and a year or two of free agency for some guys. Regarding mercenaries, I joked about Correa. We’ll also never know this, but I really wonder what kind of offers Correa had on the table before he turned to the Twins and said, “What about coming to you guys for a bazillion dollars, but for just one year?” (I recognize that it technically included the options, but realistically both sides knew it was unlikely to be taken.) Similarly, to use a guy like Patrick Corban, who turns 35 in two weeks, I wonder how much would it take for him to take a one-year deal when he’s probably shooting for at least three or four. Or if a Scherzer ended the year healthy and wanted to play another year. Or a reliever, particularly given that we’re talking $10-$15M for a year rather than $30+. Fun to imagine.

I don’t think we’re yelling at each other, so thanks for respectful discussion. I’ll continue. Apologies in advance. This got WAAAAAY longer than I’d planned. I’ll be curious to see what the win expectancy was entering the eighth (EDIT to add — it was down to 13 percent, which supports some of my comments below.). I’m sure it’s available mid game, though I don’t know where to look. It would also be interesting to look at it over time and see if there is indeed a general number that seems to be the tipping point of when he makes someone the sacrificial lamb. Even with that number, however, I’m sure there are nuances. For example, in tonight’s game would he have been more likely to go to No. 7 or even No. 6 if Pressly and Hader weren’t available and they would have been going against the Astros Nos. 3 and 4, etc.? I’m a curious guy by nature and tend to be pretty analytical, so I really would find it fun to be a fly on the wall as those conversations are happening, both with his coaches mid game and more importantly, with their analytics and front office folks in the offseason and pregame, which is where they develop the overarching principles they will abide by in game management. Tonight, for example, I’m trying to put myself in Rocco’s head on the decisions about Winder, both to use him at all and then to use him for a second. Here’s what I imagine: I got hurt by Lopez only going five, so I have to get four innings from the pen. Lopez had struggled through five, but I’d really like to get another inning from him. Unfortunately, single-single-single loads the bases. I go to Alcala to hopefully minimize the damage and try to get out of it. Unfortunately, he allows two guys to score, so I’m in position of using my bullpen from behind, rather than tied or even ahead if my offense scores in the sixth. He also threw 24 pitches, so it’s not realistic to consider him for another inning. I don’t want to use Jax and Duran until the eighth and nine, and preferably only with a lead. At worst, with a tie. Similarly, I’d rather not use Stewart unless we’re in a spot with a higher likelihood of winning. I’d rather not use Staumont because of the rest factor (which I’ll explain later). So unless we score some runs, that leaves me with Winder, Funderburke and Thielbar to get through the remaining three innings. The choice is either to use them for one inning each or to use one of them for two innings. If the former, I’m ensuring myself of my three lowest-level guys having each thrown an inning going into tomorrow. If the latter, I need to get two innings out of one of them (or a combination of 1.2 and 1.1, but I prefer fresh innings for guys). I (IT speaking) think I agree with the general principle of not using all three and trying to get two innings out of one of them. Since Winder is going to be down by Tuesday anyway, it makes sense to try squeezing two innings out of him. (And since they did squeeze a second inning he threw 43 pitches, he’s realistically shot for Saturday, Sunday and probably even Monday, so I wonder if he actually gets sent down tomorrow for a fresh body that will in turn be sent down when Paddack comes back Tuesday. But I digress.) So Winder gets the seventh. Two whiffs, followed by a single that’s listed as to Winder. I wasn’t following closely at that point — was he actually close to getting out with a 1-2-3? Unfortunately, the single happens, as does a 2B and a HBP before a ground ball. Heading to the eighth, again down two, whatever my (Rocco speaking again) win percentage entering the seventh, it’s not even lower. (EDIT to add: It was down to 13 percent.) I still don’t want to use Duran, Jax, Stewart and Staumont for the reasons listed above and Staumont for the reason described below. Thus my choices are another inning for Winder or two innings from either Funderburke or Thielbar. I wonder if my thought process at that point is, “I’m not sure I really trust either of the latter for two innings, and I don’t want to risk needing to use them both. I know I’m going to be sending Winder down. He’s already thrown 21 pitches, so I don’t have him for tomorrow and maybe not Sunday, but if I go ahead and use him a second inning, I can send him down tomorrow and have a fresh body. Besides, he looked good on the first several hitters in the seventh, so maybe he can pull it together.” Unfortunately the eighth didn’t start well, Whatever the win percentage was (13 percent), it went down after hitting Altuve (to 11.2). And even further after Bergman singles (to 8.7). Now what? The likelihood of either Thielbar or Funderburke bailing me out with no runs is slim, and even if they do, I’ve needed to use that guy for a full inning, and I still have to cover the ninth. Realistically, by this point, Rocco has now committed to Winder being out there for a while. Best case scenario, he gets out with maybe only one run and we’ve still got six outs to score, though now we have to get three runs to tie. Unfortunately, worst case happens, with a little help from Margot, though that only cost the Twins one run. Even without the error, it still would have been 9-5. Instead it was 10-5 and the Twins didn’t score in the bottom of the eighth. So now it gets turned over to Funderburke or Thielbar for the ninth. Unfortunately, more worst case scenario happens. So… I don’t know if I would have done it this way (IT speaking again), but there is a logic behind it that I can understand. On Staumont, I’ve been kinda in and out on Game Threads recently, but there have been a couple people clamoring loudly for him. Have you been one of those? I’m actually intrigued by him as well. I had moderately high hopes with the signing, so I was bummed that he got hurt. I do wonder if the caution they’ve shown with him the last two weeks is related to his coming back from injury. His last two outings have come on a whopping six days rest each, but that was on the heels of a stretch of going six games in 12 days, which is pretty intense, particularly when you consider that in three of those he actually went more than an inning. So I wonder if they are going with some pretty extended rest times if possible in response to some initial signs of overuse and in lieu of an IL stint. He also did pitch on Wednesday, though it was only 13 pitches. He probably could have pitched tonight in an emergency. It will be interesting to see their willingness the next couple days if the situation calls for it. At the least, he seems like he’s climbed to at least No. 5 in the pecking order, maybe even ahead of Alcala to No. 4.

I was on the radio, still listening to the Astros broadcast. They gave no indication of Altuve getting hit intentionally. So you’re saying you’re okay with Miranda being hurt for a couple weeks because Winder was having control problems? And for the record, though I’m not a big fan of the retaliation HBP mindset, I thought that if they were going to do it on Sunday, they did it the right way. It was in the ninth inning so there was no chance of the Tigers retaliating for the retaliation. They had already gotten one (maybe even two, I forget?) out. It was lefty on lefty, using up the platoon disadvantage, so they were doing it in such a way that minimized the minute chance of an HBP contributing to a rally. Similarly, it seemed pretty clear that pinch hitting Martin and Farmer was about Rocco essentially saying, “If you’re going to do, do it now so it doesn’t hurt our best players. If you’re going to hold off and do it later so you can get one of our better players, you may be stuck with doing it at times when the game is much closer. If the Astros didn’t do it tonight, but plan to do it sometime, I think it’s more likely they will wait and do it on Sunday rather than tomorrow, for some of the same reasons. That could change if tomorrow’s game ends up being a laugher.

I hear what you are saying, but I think the difference is that Rocco doesn’t let higher-leverage guys go a second inning, while he will let a lower-leverage guy do it, particularly when the win expectancy has reached a certain point. (And I said “win expectancy” intentionally. Folks complain about the “spreadsheet,” but I can imagine that they do indeed have a formula that they use.) People complain that Rocco lets “winnable” games get away, but a couple years ago the complaint was that he overworked certain relievers so they wore down by year end. Keeping the higher leverage guys at one inning stints is one way of keeping them fresher. It’s a separate discussion, but I think this way of managing reinforces an understanding that Rocco and the FO typically take the long view. (And to anticipate a comment from someone about my referencing “lower” leverage relievers, note that I didn’t say “low.” I’m not suggesting that there should be someone groomed as a “low-leverage reliever.” I’m saying that in any eight-man bullpen, by definition there are going to be some relievers that are highER leverage than others and there will be others who will be lowER than others. Said another way, by definition, there is going to be a No. 8 guy in the pen. The goal is always to get the No. 8 guy to be as good as possible, but someone’s going to be No. 8 at any given time. For tonight, it was clear that No. 8 was Winder.)

They wouldn’t have been facing Contreras in the ninth. Martin and Farmer wouldn’t have pinch hit. I’m not sure the ninth says much of anything either way.

As you can maybe tell from my having typed this in the bottom of the ninth, I had gotten away from the iPad for a while, so I was typing after Winder did indeed unravel. And now the Twins have indeed scored the multiple runs, though obviously against a much lesser reliever. And now Hader did indeed come in, which was what another poster was hoping for as at least a minor win if it was still a 7-5 game. All to say, baseball can be very unpredictable! 😄

Based on the discussion from earlier this week, I assume we’re okay with that?

Could they have come back? Sure, But even if the new reliever shut down the Astros, they have six outs to get two runs against Pressly and Hader. Could they do it? Maybe, but I’m guessing the likelihood is quite small. On the other hand, Winder is going back to St. Paul by Tuesday when Paddack comes back. By giving Winder the second inning, they go ahead and save someone for Saturday. In fact, it fact, it wouldn’t be surprising if Winder is back down after tonight’s game, meaning that giving him the second inning tonight actually means that two relievers will be fresher tomorrow than they would be if someone else came in.

Nine.

Apologies if this story has been shared — it’s the middle three innings, so I’m listening to the Astros radio. Apparently Lee’s dad’s favorite players were Brooks Robinson and Lou Brock. Dad wanted to name his son after one of them, but didn’t think “Brock Lee” would work well.

We don’t.

Twins record is nine — Oliva, Mickey Hatcher and Todd Walker. EDIT to add: Also Mauer.

I like it when the other team has a regular starter and then it turns into a bullpen game.

“While he wouldn’t commit to anything concrete, manager Rocco Baldelli did say that Paddack has responded well to his extended break.” —From the Twins injury report on mlb.com

Listening to MLB Audio and one of the promos was for the app, asking about the term “payoff pitch.” The voiceover defines it, they use a classic clip with the term, and the voiceover says something about listening to every game as a way of expanding your vocabulary. Yep. As I listen to Gladden, I hear words/pronunciations I’ve never heard before. Last night, he showed that it’s possible to pronounce a word “correctly” and still botch it. Atteberry was promoting relish-flavored ketchup, saying the tagline that “it’s a big dill.” Sure enough, when it’s Gladden’s turn, we get, “Relish-flavored ketchup. It’s a big deal.”

I don’t disagree. Just curious whether such a list would take care of staying within range of where they are this year or even pull off one more starting pitcher.

Gotcha.

Unless I missed it, no one has noted that he’s fourth in bWAR on a team that’s on pace for 91 wins. It’s hard to do that and not be worth $15M.

I think he earned both the promotion and the demotion. He pitched well enough to get the opportunity when Paddack needed rest. He showed bright spots, but not enough to stay. In the long run, it's nice for him to have gotten a looksee, experience the bigs and get some reinforcement of what he needs to work on. The team split his two starts, so it didn't really cost them.

With a corresponding move the other direction? I think I heard the Twins say they wouldn't use off days to get extra starts for people, but if you're going to do that, now is the time. With a bullpen game on Monday, they could get to the All-Star Break while still resting Paddack: 30th: Ryan 1st: Off 2nd: SWR 3rd: Festa 4th: Ober (today) 5th: Lopez 6th: Ryan 7th: SWR 8th: Bullpen 9th: Ober 10th: Lopez 11th: Off (to celebrate my mother's 92nd birthday) 12th: Ryan 13th: SWR 14th: Ober If they indeed bring back Paddack for the 8th, he'd get the 13th, SWR the 14th and Ober isn't needed until after the break. I'm not sure it's worth it, unless Paddack truly isn't ready to go.

Yes. I didn't go into the detail of looking for who would get that short-term gig, but you've named a couple possibilities.