IndianaTwin

He threw 62.2 innings last year and is on pace for about 75 this year, a decent percentage increase. If he’s effective and holding up, they can still add to the inning count by letting him go longer in August and September. The inning projection also assumes a minor league year-end of Sept. 15. If he’s earned it and he’s needed, they can add to the count with MLB bullpen innings. They have five starters under contract for 2025, midseason and offseason acquisition options and a couple other minor leaguers ahead of him. I’m not too worried about the number of pitches he’s throwing in mid-2024 when he isn’t likely to see the majors until mid-2025. Keep him healthy.

Of note is that Wisconsin of the Midwest League will be going with the “Udder Tuggers” nickname this weekend in honor of June being dairy month.

Jackson already got the boot last week, so there’s a spot open. Also, Stewart could realistically get moved to the 60-day IL. He went on the 15-day on May 3 and likely won’t be back by July 2.

Dave from the Brian Dozier trade?

I’m definitely on board with it needing to be a legit case of dead arm/fatigue. I wasn’t explicit in saying that. My point was more that his recent inconsistency seems consistent with guys running into a fatigue factor when coming back from TJS. He was able to average nearly 92 pitches over his first nine starts but has only gotten above 88 in one of his last five. Obviously, there’s more than fatigue going on in determining how many pitches a guy throws. There’s effectiveness, which he hasn’t had lately. Your velo stats don’t suggest fatigue, which is very helpful. At the same time, my sense is that TJS fatigue is as much about not being able to MAINTAIN sharpness and velocity as it is about not being able to find them at all. It seems like sometimes he has one and sometimes the other. Sometimes he’s had both and sometimes he has neither. And sometimes those different permutations happen within the same game. And can change quickly. Sorry — didn’t mean to turn this into an analysis of why Paddack has struggled. I’m also one who often says, “These folks are way closer to the scene than those of us on TD,” so I don’t like it when people make speculative statements. I wasn’t trying to do that. All that to say, I’m with you on not wanting them to manufacture an injury. However, as an endurance coach by trade (track and field/cross country), I also admit I come from a bias toward trying to nip overuse injuries in the bud, while also trying to be strategic in when to use extra rest, which is where the ASB scenario is coming from. I see it as a conversation where you’re saying to the athlete, “Look, from what you’re feeling and what we’re seeing in our measurements, it seems clear that you aren’t going to be able to make every start from here to the end of the year. In fact, your recovery would likely benefit from missing more than just a single start. How can we build in an extended rest so that it best benefits both you and the team?” ———— On the topic of phantom IL stints, I recently read “The Tao of the Backup Catcher,” by Tim Johnson with Erik Kratz. ! highly recommend it, In it, Kratz tells of being told late in his career to invent an injury to create an IL stint. I’ve had opportunity to get to know him on a personal level, so I’m pretty confident it wasn’t embellishment for the purpose of selling books. (And besides, it’s not a book based on sensationalism anyway.) He doesn’t name names, but it can be sleuthed out which team it happened with. He talks about the difficult spot he was in. He’s a man of integrity and it’s the intangibles that kept him in the game until almost 40 and now he’s being asked to go against those, knowing that if he doesn’t, a DFA could be the end of his career.

I’m among those who thinks it would be worth considering an IL stint for Paddack, which isn’t uncommon for guys coming back from Tommy John. Just for kicks, let’s see what that TJS reset could look like for Paddack. Assuming Ober gets Friday, Paddack is on for the 22nd, 28th, 4th and 9th. So… On July 5, IL Paddack for an optionable reliever. On July 9, option that reliever and bring up Varland for the start. On July 10, option Varland for another optionable reliever. Use the remaining four starters for the 10th, 12th, 13th and 14th, leading into the break. Start those four on the 20th, 21st, 22nd and 23rd coming out of the break. On July 24, activate Paddack in his return to the rotation, sending down the optionable reliever. That would result in Paddack getting a 19-day break that only costs one start, allowing the Twins to play 12 of the 13 games in that stretch with a nine-man bullpen. It seems they did some variation with this theme a couple years ago, but I don’t remember the specifics.

There was a discussion on this earlier in the season. Semantically, it has to be two different transactions. Varland has to go down, but could immediately be recalled to take the place of a pitcher going on the IL. They would be separate transactions. However, if that’s the plan, there’s a good chance it doesn’t make sense. If they were going to keep him up in exchange for an IL stint for Paddack, for example, it would make more sense for them to bring up a reliever in an immediate move for Paddack and have the extra reliever for a few days until Varland is needed in the rotation on Saturday (assuming Ober gets Friday). EXCEPT that in this case it’s complicated by Varland having pitched on Tuesday and then optioned, so he can’t come up for Saturday, unless it’s indeed for an IL stint.

Celebrating Mrs. IT’s early retirement from teaching with a COVID-delayed trip to Alaska. Winner, winner, combo platter of salmon, prawns and halibut dinner.

Does Martin make the play?

For the record, earlier today was the third time Sands was brought in to start the ninth with a 6-1 lead and the second time he needed someone to finish up for him. Added bummer this time is that it was G1, so it made Duran unavailable for the nightcap.

Miranda’s right!

Cliff Clavin disagrees.

It does take a village…

Following on the app. What led to the ejection?

Speaking of Cale, I like to cook it using a little olive oil. That makes it slide out of the pan a little easier when I’m dumping it in the trash.

The Twins moved Lewis off shortstop because they have Carlos Correa.

IT Jr. reminds me that 23 years ago today, the Twins drafted Mauer. He was followed by Mark Prior, Dewon Bradenton and Gavin Floyd. Well played, Twins.

"Outside of the power component, Martin is the player who could be perfect as a fourth outfielder and backup center fielder and fill that Taylor role from last season." -------------------- Except for the part where Martin's defense is nowhere close to Taylor's (especially in center?). And the part where the (unexpected) power component was the primary unanticipated benefit Taylor added to the mix, whereas Martin has 1 homer in 83 plate appearances in the majors and 15 in 1183 PAs in the minors. Other than that, sure...

The pattern I observed is that after a day off, they seem to reset the alternation to have Vazquez start the next game. And in this case, Jeffers did start on Sunday, so it would be Vazquez's turn. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2024-lineups.shtml (Don't shoot me. I'm just the messenger.) For tomorrow's guess, I wonder if you might flip-flop Miranda's and Lewis's positions. At the least, I'm guessing Lewis won't play 3B both Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon after playing tonight.

The Twins are on pace for 90 or 91 wins. I think that's sustainable. Cleveland is on pace for 107. That's not. Kansas City is on pace for 96. I don't think that is either. But it's always good to put money in the bank. If Cleveland goes 52-51 the rest of the way, they end up with 91 wins.

Particularly when the 50.8 mm x 101.6 mm piece of lumber you're using to frame walls only actually measures about 38 mm x 76 mm...

.00559 x 59 = about 0.33 wins to date, or roughly 1 win for the year. 🤣

I don't know. DeSclafani is still hurt, so we have that excuse available... 🤣 Given that they've played at 90 or 91-win pace to date, if the current roster stayed healthy, I'll take my chances with it.

March 28 (Opening Day) March 30 April 8 April 9 April 13 April 16 April 22 April 29 May 3 May 18 June 3 While it's a fun exercise, it's pretty easy to overthink this. Opening pitch tomorrow evening, in their 60th game of the year, will come with their 11th different combination of position players on the roster. I think all but one of the moves, the April 16 activation of Larnach for Wallner, involved a player either being put on the IL or activated from it. To go from May 3 to June 3 without a position player being put on the IL is quite unusual. If (pick your favorite least favorite) veteran gets too many at bats in the next month because no one got hurt and none of the optionable players have sucked, all in all that will be a good problem to have.

Wallner, Miranda, Martin, Larnach and Kirilloff have all gotten one.