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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I really hope Lewis was the top guy on our board. Because I don't think Enlow being behind Palka and Jorge justifies not taking the best guy.
  2. tobi0040
    It would be interesting to get a peak at how the Twins top prospects would be after the draft. I would be most curious where Lewis and Enlow would be. Romero looks like he is turning the corner now and Gonsalves is back strong, but I would love to know how Lewis is viewed against those two.
  3. tobi0040
    His defense has been slightly better than his offense has been brutal. On the one hand, he is technically adding value. If his bat can improve towards mediocre he would be a better player. But I hope the optimism about his bat being elite by all has been eliminated. This level of ineptitude for this long does not have a good track record of turning elite. If he can hit .250 he will be in the league for 15 years and make a fair amount of money and have a good career. But most of the comps that existed look like a dream right now.
  4. tobi0040
    It is sort of funny. Greene could come back to totally haunt the Twins and if he does, Lewis could literally be a punchline a la Darko Milicic Or it could be a Mauer/Prior or Correa/Appel thing. Those are the two extremes
  5. tobi0040
    When I google Enlow, the first article is one from SB nation, just seven days ago titled "Blayne Enlow's velocity loss has his draft stock crashing" No link on phone but you can easily find it. Says he went from 90-94 (earlier pegged at 92-94) to 89-91. Is this a rogue article? I can't find any other traction on this.
  6. tobi0040
    Monkey, I guess the hang up for me is the historical value of guys after the first round. And the value within the first round and even within the top few. We may find really cool write ups on guys. Probably still another 50 players on the board where you will hear "thought to be a first rounder last year" or something to that effect. But history shows the hit rate in the late rounds is really low. With that view, taking less value at 1-1 and 35 and 37 to get more value here seems ass backwards to me.
  7. tobi0040
    A decent thought provoking question may be, if the Twins did NOT have Lewis at the top of their board, has the haul so far warranted not taking the best guy 1-1? For the sake of argument, let's just assume they didn't. We will never know if they did or didn't.
  8. tobi0040
    Here is my very quick take this far. I am not comfortable with Lewis as your once in 17 years first overall pick. Looks like speed is his best weapon. Not much power at this point. Won't stick even on the left side of the INF. And it looks like we went underslot on several other picks as well to draft a fringe late first rounder in Enlow. The General value in this area does not warrant i think not getting your best player at 1-1, I don't have proof that we don't view him 1-1. But we offered McKay money and it seems few had him 1. And I read that Enlow has seen his velocity dip from 92-94 to 89-91 this spring. Has anyone brought this up? I didn't see it as I skimmed through.
  9. tobi0040
    In fairness, the Cubs are in a position to spend on guys like Jon Lester and we are not. If you need pitching to win, the Twins lack an avenue some teams have. That is part of the equation. Now we can point to guys like Arrietta or even Ervin that we could get, but it is not a level playing field. Please note, I don't want to start a debate that we could sign an ace. The fact is we won't.
  10. tobi0040
    Personally, I would not give two rips where a players heart is. You draft a guy, hand him 6-7 million bucks and he is controlled for 7 years. He will get over it quickly. In the case of Lewis and Greene, Boras represents both. So if they pan out we may only get 7 years. My personal theory is that Greene was the best prospect. The biggest knock against him was the track record of and lack of HS RHP going 1-1. And the recent track record of guys that were HS RHP but weren't as highly regarded as him. It seems to me that he became a victim of a self-fulfilling prophecy that benefitted the Reds, who were more than happy to scoop him up at #2.
  11. tobi0040
    From what I have read, Enlow at 76 dropped because his velo dipped from 92-94 to 89-91 this spring, not because of a signability issue.
  12. tobi0040
    Jack, I really don't appreciate the unnecessary personal shot. But here is what I know: We had the first pick as well two other picks in the 30's We had the most money to spend Not only did we not agree to terms with the player we wanted, we went under slot with 1-1 and 35 and 37 (Mayo said he can't see 35/37 getting full slot) I also know that if you look back at history, a pretty high distribution of good players come in the first 30-40 picks vs the rest of the draft. So getting less value here just seems like a pretty bad idea. If we end up signing guys in rounds 38-39 that project as first round picks next year and we use all of our money, then the strategy would seem more clear. But in the meantime I am not sure the Pohlad's have a track record that would warrant the benefit of the doubt some are giving them.
  13. tobi0040
    What a joke. We get the top pick for the first time in 17 years and try and save money. One of the worst owners in sports.
  14. tobi0040
    I always assumed it wasn't Terry Ryan that was super cheap, rather he had a tight budget dictated by the Pohlad's. Terry is gone. Same old. I just hope Falvey and Lavine were made aware of this issue before signing on.
  15. tobi0040
    One other note, has anyone here ever worked for a boss that made terrible decisions? These things can be overblown at times, but is it crazy to think guys like Dozier and Ervin aren't wondering what the hell is going on? And obviously Berrios has to he just pissed. These are bad moves for morale and can foster a terrible culture. People on a ship need to know the captain knows what is going on.
  16. tobi0040
    I have been telling my buddies all year. If you didn't know Terry Ryan was gone, you would not be able to tell based on the moves. I just wanted things to make sense with a new front office. These moves don't make sense.
  17. tobi0040
    I just hope this guy and the guy we got for Santana are not going to he making starts over Berrios.
  18. tobi0040
    The biggest win here is Santana is not around to get 200 AB and accumulate a negative win or two
  19. tobi0040
    RE: Gibson extension. He was controlled for Several years though. I wouldn't worry too much about the alternatives 3-4 years down the road. Spotrac says he won't be a FA until 2020. I am not sure if that is accurate but it looks like he had 3-4 years of control left.
  20. tobi0040
    I do remember being in the vast minority about 15 months ago when the article series about who the Twins should extend. Gibson was number one or two if memory serves. I am glad we didn't lock him up. When you have a pitcher who won't ever be a 1 or 2, be careful with extensions. They should not get too expensive that the Twins can't afford them, so let it ride and don't unnecessarily clog your rotation.
  21. tobi0040
    Great article. In looking back at his best year, it looks like luck played a big role and he just isn't as good as we thought. In his first two years he left 66 pct of runners stranded. It was 73 percent in the 3.84 ERA year. Spitballing numbers here, but if he had 150 IP and 200 runners, that is 14 fewer runs which would have lowered his ERA from about 4.64 to 3.84.
  22. tobi0040
    Great point Mike. The money in this case goes to a spoon fed second generation billionaire or a kid who grew up in extreme poverty. Literally a house smaller than my garage with seven other people.
  23. tobi0040
    Interesting to note that Tom Verducci reported the Cubs tried locking up Bryant and "got nowhere" this off-season. The tough part about position players is they don't get injured much. So a guy like Sano could have a .750 OPS and still command $25-30 million or more in his three arbitration years. Probably closer to $30-40 if he keeps producing. So he is going to be financially secure barring a pretty rare fall off a cliff or career ending injury. If the Twins do forecast a $400 plus million dollar deal for Harper and a $300 million dollar deal for Machado, we would need to do it first. The only real incentive to get Sano to the table would be up front money, large FA dollars for a few years but allow him to hit FA around 30 so he can participate in a potential frenzy.
  24. tobi0040
    Completely agree DrJim
  25. tobi0040
    It seems that transferring Joe Mauer money to Miguel Sano seems like a solid trade. I like the idea of front loading and really enticing Sano. I know we have a new front office, but hopefully we learned a lesson from Johan, Mauer, and Dozier. I would much, much rather trade Sano in a year than sign him to a dumb extension that does not buy out several free agent years. We would get a kings ransom and let's face it, how many years are we going to be in contention from 2017-2021? Let's not waste this one too.
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