tobi0040

Agree on the authenticity part. But I am not sure Ozzie is the best example. I think the Twins could have a credible search without including him at all.

The wrist provides some context to the drop in power. But you can see that he is still not on Abreau's range. And they were taking stats at similar age so it does not include this season: During the 2011-12 season, Abreu hit .394/.542/.837 with 35 home runs, 75 walks and 40 strikeouts in 71 games. Abreu led Serie Nacional in batting, OBP (by 63 points over Alfredo Despaigne), slugging (by 142 points over Despaigne) and OPS. Abreu was an all-star and ranked second in homers—only one behind Despaigne despite having 63 fewer plate appearances—although Despaigne still captured the MVP.

#credibility issue

I am of the belief that our next manager is almost a lock to be Molitor or Doug. I think from a PR perspective, we simply need to interview outside to check a box. I have no way of confirming that external guys did not have a fair shot, only a way of confirming I am wrong if they go exernal.

I agree with you about the from afar part, parsing words, etc.. But we are lunatic fans and this is all we have to go on. I also agree the GM plays a huge role in costructing the roster based on SABR type metrics. But lineup constrution and platooning are on the coach too, and being open to and driving defensive shifting shows me that Molitor views the game as an evolving one and he seems more open to me. Admittedly from afar.

I put this out on the payroll thread as well, but thought I would put it here as well. This is a good write up and comparison between Tomas and other Cubans. The skinny, his numbers in Cuba are nowhere near Abreau's numbers. Scouts believe Tomas as raw 70 power but will strike out a ton. He was always near the top in the league in K's and this writer thinks it is possible he could be in the 30% range in the big leagues. His numbers in Cuba resemble Cespedes at the same age, who I think is wildly over-rated. His last two yeas he has had an OPS of .737 and .751. Pretty average for a LF and if Tomas's ceiling is in this range he is not worthy of the contract that is likely to be doled out (7-70 or so). http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/yasmani-tomas-cuban-stats.html

This is a good write up and comparison between Tomas and other Cubans. The skinny, his numbers in Cuba are nowhere near Abreau's numbers. Scouts believe Tomas as raw 70 power but will strike out a ton. He was always near the top in the league in K's and this writer thinks it is possible he could be in the 30% range in the big leagues. His numbers in Cuba resemble Cespedes at the same age, who I think is wildly over-rated. His last two yeas he has had an OPS of .737 and .751. Pretty average for a LF and if Tomas's ceiling is in this range he is not worthy of the contract that is likely to be doled out (7-70 or so). http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/yasmani-tomas-cuban-stats.html

Doug is 40 years old and has spent probably 35 of those on baseball diamonds. Success in high school, college, olympics, and won a world series under a program that heaviliy relies on analytics. And has managed for two years. At this point in his life, "will listen" is not good enoug for me. If he isn't there yet, I don't want to hand over the reins and hope we have a convert later.

I think SD and Leviathan bring up some interesting points. While Doug has probably worked with 40-50 young players, here are the seven guys that will have the biggest impact on making the Twins relevant again: Buxton - played 90 games for Doug, has been very complimentary of Molitor Sano - played 56 games for Doug, has been very complimentary of Molitor JO - 96 innings under Doug Meyer- Never played for Doug May - Never played for Doug Gordon - Never played for Doug Kohl - Never played for Doug So I don't really see the connection to the future as a huge selling point for Doug. If he is more identifiable with younger players maybe, but being a first ballot HOF probably doesn't hurt Molitors credibility with young players. Here would be my two deal-breakers: If Doug really said he is not a huge SABR guy. Didn't we just get rid of a gritty, hard nosed guy that does not think math plays a big role in the game? This kind of reminds me of a guy that is sick of his wife of 20 years, divorces her and then re-marries someone that is identical to her. Can someone please send the link? I have not been able to find it. I also don't put much stock in Dougs handful of years of managerial experience. Paul Molitor is more than capable of constructing a lineup, yelling at umps, and playing the matchup game with the pen late in games. The fact that he played an extra 10 years at a much higher level should offset that IMO. I guess I don't see Doug's strengths as anythng close to weaknesses for Molitor. I think Molitors deal-breaker is how long is he willing to commit to managing this team. Obviously you can only go off of verbal commitment, but if is less than three years I don't really see the point.

My prediction is that the job is Dougs or Molitors and outside candidates are going to be interviewed so the club does not look tone deaf. I agree with SD though that for the same reason, the pitching coach is an outsider. I think after the outside manager box is checked, (say after 2-3 guys interview), the internal name leaks.

I agree and think Gardy was hung out to dry to an extent. Not getting him talent was part of it and not acknowledging a rebuild was another key piece. Now they look at him and say...you lost 90 games again! Having said that, I was glad to see him go because I don't think he is the right choice moving forward.

That was my long winded answer explaining that I don't really care if one entity is over 52%, the consolidated group is what should matter. I am guessing MLB's recommendation of payroll (52%) was a consolidated view. Not backing out suite revenue, or Bud Light revenue but counting hot dogs or whatever.

He has not been able to in the past, that is for sure (.690 OPS).

I sort of agree, but being beat out for the Angels is sort of explainable.

The first question is probably simply one of whether or not the person is secure or insecre with their job. I could also see the Twins preferring Doug as a head coach in the minors if they view him as a coach of the future.

Companies create legal entities primarily for tax reasons and to shields other entities from risk, financial and otherwise. If this was a public company all of the legal enities would roll up through the parent. Much like say GE reports their sales, earnings, etc. numbers on a consolidated basis but probably has 100's of entities underneath. If this structure did that, they would not have payroll that equals 52% of the parents consolidated revenue.

Yeah. If we got him on a 1 year deal and cut Schafer that would be fine. Especially if it locks in Santana at SS. I just think we really like Schafer and he will be in the mix next year. Along with a LF we bring in, Arcia, and Hicks.

I find it ironic that Molitor is the one with the 500 stolen bases. I know this is Mauer/Dougie conversation....

Gardy having a tough time sitting a veteran. No way.

I agree, it is really tough to judge a minor league manager on how he has managed...as he is usually following instructions in a manner that will develop players. Between those two guys, I hope their respective answers to analytic based questions is the deciding factor. My gut says Molitor was the smarter player and therefore he would be my choice.

I don't see a centerpiece of Escobar netting anything of value. He had a couple of really good months at the plate, but his numbers pre-this year are pretty bad.

I am guessing if you go back to 2002, you will find terms like "get after it" and "no nonsense" for Gardy.

If true ,I hope he is ruled out. We had a guy that went off his gut versus odds, math, etc.

Tough to say. It could be but I don't see them selling. They won 90 games in 2013 with basically the same team. Votto missed 100 games. They have plently of pitchers they could flip for bats.

I think it takes much more than Arcia and a series of mid-levels for Hamels as well. I think they get two blue chips or hold onto Cole.