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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Looks like we extended contracts to all of them http://www.twinkietown.com/2014/12/3/7325603/twins-will-tender-contracts-to-all-arbitration-eligible-players
  2. tobi0040
    I have a crazy idea. Instead of making our #1 priority a 40 year old RF making $10.5M, lets just add another coach at $300K a year to mentor
  3. tobi0040
    I can't argue with you there. But I thought the draw to Molitor was that he was this really smart guy that had a great relationship with the young players and relates well to everyone. You have spring training and a ton of ex-Twins there. You have I think six coaches for 25 position players on ther roster. How many mentors do we need?
  4. tobi0040
    He won the MVP award and received every first place vote this year with Hunter in Detroit. He had an OPS of .988 with 27 HR and 33 SB in 2013 with Hunter in Detroit. As a 21 year old. This mentor thing is wildly over-rated in sports and the least relevant in baseball, IMO. When a ball is hit at Aaron Hicks, he needs to get it. When he is in the batters box, it is him versus the pitcher.
  5. tobi0040
    I just love how we can talk ourselves into anything, as long as it is a one or two year deal. Or at least....who cares? It is only a one year deal. Last year, we had 16% of our roster spots and 16% of payroll locked into the following four players: Pelfrey 7.99 ERA $5.5M Correia 4.94 ERA $5M Kubel .607 OPS $2M Guerrier 3.86 ERA $1M Next year, we will have at least $16.5M locked into Hunter and Pelfrey and we are just getting started. I see another $5-8M going to another re-tread pitcher. That will likely be about 26% of payroll in three players that are not any good. Keith Law called Hunter, “barely above replacement level”. I would argue the only one of the four last year that sniffed replacement level was Guerrier. The old saying goes you can’t have 20-25% of payroll devoted to one star player and win a world series. Well I would counter that you can’t have 20-25% of your payroll and the same amount of your roster spots devoted to replacement players or worse and win 80 games. And give me one stud and three rookies over four of these types all day. There is no difference between a long term contract and perpetually having short term deals on your books. We can say well we can't sign Jon Lester because he wants a six year deal. The years are really scary. If he is good for four years and terrible for the last two, than his production over the life of that deal will surpass the coalition of 30 year old re-treads we will sign over that period even if his arm falls off at some point.
  6. tobi0040
    Nailed it. Two needs. Pitching and of defense. This makes both worse. Somehow.
  7. tobi0040
    The really frustrating thing is Rasmus is still available and probably signs about the same deal. 11 years younger. Can play all 3 positions, which could be valuable as you want hicks on the corner if he turns it around (not our long term cf) Or flexibility if Rosario or buxton light it up. Probably the same stick with much better defense. And you get a pick next year when he leaves.
  8. tobi0040
    How about. We "won" the sweepstakes.
  9. tobi0040
    Seems like all our pitching targets are the same. Guys that are about 30 with two good years, a few awful years, mix in an injury or three.....
  10. tobi0040
    It makes more sense to cut Milone. Then have a shortage of pitchers and trade for the same guy in June.
  11. tobi0040
    Yeah, that is the issue. Arcia or Hunter would have to play left. Neither are close to average.
  12. tobi0040
    Looks like Goin either does not believe in defensive metrics, or has no influence: There was no talk of Hunter’s plummeting defensive metrics: minus-28 combined defensive runs saved over his past two seasons in Detroit. That’s dead last out of 51 right fielders with at least 500 innings out there in that span. I’ve been told the Twins aren’t too worried about those numbers. They believe Hunter, who has kept himself in excellent condition, still moves around more than well enough to field his position. http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/11/26/twinsights-terry-ryan-torii-hunters-leadership-production/
  13. tobi0040
    Please tell me we are not linked to Torii on a two year deal.
  14. tobi0040
    I can't fault anyone for taking $90M over $45M. I suppose the AAV was not much different. But these are guaranteed deals and you can never assume a 32 year old will be able to play in four years. I don't want the 39-40 year old version.
  15. tobi0040
    Congrats to him.
  16. tobi0040
    That is my thought process as well. The guy will make $2.5M. That is not a lot of money. He is absolutely better than some of the AAAA types that will at some point come up and make 15-20 starts. And Milone has better than a snowballs chance at pitching at least league average and having a decent couple of years. I am not sure why we would cut him.
  17. tobi0040
    As a reference point. Swarzak pitched 86 innings. Duensing 54. Tonkin 19.
  18. tobi0040
    I kept thinking the old coach from Miami and Cleveland Brows.
  19. tobi0040
    Looks like they get a 1B coach and a weight room advisor as an add on.
  20. tobi0040
    Minor Numbers Vargas .288 avg, .367 OBP, .486 slugging, .854 OPS. 24.2% K percentage Walker .259 avg, .312 OBP, .484 slugging, .796 OPS, 27.8% K percentage At the time of the promotion, Vargas had an OPS of .832 with 17 HR in just 97 games at AA. He was putting up better numbers at AA than Walker has in the lower leagues without the red flags. It seems to me you put Walker in the big leagues next year and he hits about .225, his OBP is about .260, and he wiffs about 35% of the time.
  21. tobi0040
    I think age is a very important data point. Use that for starters, then add on athleticism, how they keep themselves in shape, and injury history. In the case of Torii versus Willingham, Willingham was always hurt and slow. It was predictable that he would age quicker and he has been awful defensively. Torii was paid $90M for his bat, plus defense, and base running at 32. His total dWAR during those fives years was about 1 win and he stole a total of 60 bases in five years. His OPS was over .820 once. Probably averaged about .805 or so.
  22. tobi0040
    I agree. He probably wants us there in case he gets shut out by everyone else
  23. tobi0040
    Someone else pointed this out on another thread, but going off of leading a league in the minors is a bit misleading. Really good prospects typically play in more than one league over the course of a year due to being promoted. In 2013, Sano and Buxton both played about 60 games in two different leagues. They would not have lead the league in any sort of tally stat like HR's. Sano for example had a combined line of .280/.382/.610 with 35 HR and 103 RBI. But those were split between A+ and AA. I am glad we have Walker in our system for his power potential, but I agree that he is 23 and has a career OBP of .312 and has not seen AA yet. He is going to have to take a step forward in contact rate and hopefully take a few walks. I view him as a project and a freak athlete with upside. Nothing that should change our off-season plans at this point. BA did not have Walker as a top 20 prospect in the Florida league he lead last year. http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/2014-league-top-20-prospects-index/
  24. tobi0040
    The Rays platooned Joyce to a .750 OPS a year ago. His career OPS against righties is .750. Would be a good platoon with Hicks. Guessing his defense is OK at least, certainly an upgrade over Willingham or Torii Hunter.
  25. tobi0040
    Agreed. For at least the next six to eight years, he should have pop. For at least the next four or five years he should provide plus defense and speed on the bases. Even if his average never comes around to .270-.280 or so that is a plus 2B.
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