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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Our track record improving guys via tinkering is not good. So I tend to agree with you here. I still think we view him as a non-tender anyway
  2. tobi0040
    First let me say this was a really good article Tom. Good stuff. The k rate could help explain the LOB % gap between him and Nolasco. He is about a full k higher per 9. But there has to be some secret sauce to it, maybe it is he excels out of the windup like hybrid mentioned, maybe he dials up his velo a bit in those situations. Justin Verlander is a guy that seems to pick up 3-4 mph when he needs to.
  3. tobi0040
    One would hope. I hope the Twins learned from Nolasco and Ervin. You either go all in on a starter or do the short bounce back type. You don't really want to be in between
  4. tobi0040
    If I was to do an off-season prediction, it would be that a new GM would non-tender Santiago. He looks to be one of our better five guys in 2017 right now, but it is not clear to me that for $8m we can't do better on the market via a higher upside bounce back type. I think this was a savvy move to rid ourselves of the bulk of Nolasco's $12m next year. With an audition built in for next year. I think he is comparable to 2015 Milone, but at $8m is more expensive. I like the move because we bought flexibility and punted the decision to the next GM. In fact, that seems to be what Antony's approach has been. He has kept the guys that you could at least make a case for helping the 2017 team, Dozier, Ervin, and Kurt for example. He has earned some respect from me with this approach
  5. tobi0040
    Sorry. Disliked is what you said. I was being lazy when I responded and didn't re-read.
  6. tobi0040
    I really don't see how Santiago could be more hated than Ricky. For one, Ricky has been much worse. For two, Ricky was really the first big free agent splash we ever made. In hindsight, the excitement when he signed was not because of him but what he represented. A new field, our first jump into the big kid pool. So to see our fist free agent falter like that, then get rep after rep because of the deal. And knowing we may not want to jump back in the big kid pool again.....I just don't see it.
  7. tobi0040
    They are frustrated with Santiago's walks and pitch count. Ricky giving up 5.5 runs per 9 might frustrate them a little more.
  8. tobi0040
    Here is a list of starters who had a lower ERA than Ricky. 2014 – Hughes, Gibson, Correia, Pino, Deduno, Swarzak, and Kris Johnson. Ricky was third in IP. 2015 – Gibson, Pelfrey, Santana, Hughes, Milone, Duffey, and May. In 2015 we also moved May to the pen and had Graham in the long role all year, with a better ERA (he also made a start). We probably had countless guys on the waiver wire that would have pitched better too. But the fact that we pulled about anyone from AAA and they also pitched better than Ricky shows me he was starting because of the money. To your point, maybe it would not have lasted as long if Berrios for example didn't falter out of the gates. But they also didn't need to leave May in the pen or send Berrios down for 16 additional starts. In hindsight, they were probably hoping and praying Ricky would string a few starts together and get out of a good chunk of his salary for next year. It appears that worked, although I am not sure long term it was worth it with May/Berrios not starting up here.
  9. tobi0040
    The issue I have with this is Ricky has always had pretty big split between ERA and FIP, xFIP and that is across 1,600 IP and four franchises. It has went from about 70 basis points to a full run here. I think a portion of that is defense and the other the fact that he is getting hit really hard. But if you cut 30 basis points off his 5.50 ERA you still have a really, really terrible pitcher.
  10. tobi0040
    Yeah. Interesting. Some analysis below. The nice part is the flexibility. A new GM can analyze Santiago and if he fits in 2017. If not, he is non tendered or traded and we found someone to pay Nolasco about $8m next year The really odd thing about this is I think a majority of us would be happy in reverse. Had the Twins ate some salary and moved a back of the rotation starter in order to take a flier on a potential front of the rotation guy we may be intrigued. I think it speaks to us watching Ricky for 50 plus starts and drip by drip over two years lose hope in Meyer. Angels fans haven't endured either of those. https://www.google.com/amp/www.halosheaven.com/platform/amp/2016/8/1/12348720/breaking-down-the-hector-santiago-trade?client=safari
  11. tobi0040
    I would not completely rule it out but I would guess he has 4-5 more years of control. I will take the under that he is both healthy and productive in 4-5 years.
  12. tobi0040
    That is an interesting take. Looks like next years rotation is taking form, Ervin, Santiago, Berrios, and Gibson.
  13. tobi0040
    Yeah, Santiago was a creative way to get out from the Nolasco deal, because we could non-tender Santiago. I have a tough time seeing though how he isn't one of our best five starters next April though and at 1-8 or so I think he is here. On another note, Powers had a funny article about the Nolasco deal. Basically said picking up salary on a guy like Nolasco is a pretty rare move for the Twins. But here was my favorite quote: "The two new fellows could get run over by a bus while reporting to the Twins and the trade still would be considered an unqualified success"
  14. tobi0040
    That is the bigger one. If he is throwing up a mid 5.00 ERA, another team isn't going to give him the leash that he had here. We kept throwing him out there because of his salary. The Angels paid Hamilton $63m to play somewhere else. I don't think that $12m is going to buy him reps there.
  15. tobi0040
    Depends on your definition of confident. His ERA plus of 107 has a long way to regress to match the 61, 73, and 81 ol Ricky threw up here
  16. tobi0040
    True, but only in the Twins alternate universe where you absolutely need one lefty in your rotation at all times. Because, well. You just do.
  17. tobi0040
    Santiago is better than Nolasco and he is cheaper as well. I loved Meyer but after command issues. Multiple shoulder issues. We have no idea the status of him. I like the move. To be quite honest I am worried he won't pass a physical, which will put Ricky back here (after hearing he is going to LA and have it fall through, someone may need to take his shoe laces). The FIP for Santiago is not very concerning to me, as he has had a fair amount of innings under his belt.
  18. tobi0040
    Given our front office, a few other Billy Joel ideas: A matter of Trust and You may be right, I may be crazy.
  19. tobi0040
    Sweet. Another five starts to "rebuild" his value
  20. tobi0040
    The second Johan Santana traded by the Twins.
  21. tobi0040
    So basically Nick Burdi but in AAA with good numbers
  22. tobi0040
    Solid move.
  23. tobi0040
    I am guessing we got Mookie Betts
  24. tobi0040
    I predict one of Abad or Kintzler will move and 1-2 guys will effectively be sold in August. Really no reason we shouldn't move Abad, Kintzler, and Kurt to the highest bidder, even if we think the bid is low. I will take a flier for each.
  25. tobi0040
    Logistically I don't think we are trading 3-4 guys in the next 6 hours.
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