BigTrane

Guess I'll shut my mouth on AJ, then! Agnostic on Salty tho. Salty @ 2 years would be fine if you believe in Pinto (I do) but I don't think Salty's looking for anything less than 4, and in (what I see as) a thin market, he'll probably get it... likely overpaid, too. Well, we do have cash now. Sure, we could go for him- why not? Who else is there? PLease don't go too long or pay too much if there's any belief in Pinto's future. Maybe we need a thread on Pinto's future upside. Otherwise, our depth is Hermann, Doumit, and Freyer (shudder).

Ok, I'll take the bait. I'm new around here but have been vocal about AJ, so I'll step up to the plate. Have to take Seth at his word that he doesn't have a dislike for AJ on a personality basis. The "Rock 'Em, Sock 'Em AJ" photo is purely coincidence...? Sure, AJ is 37, but as you yourself point out, he's durable. Always has been. I think we're all excited about Young Pinto, and love his pop. How do we feel about bringing back 'Pops', right? Yes, AJ is the Anti-Stargell, too. He is the Devil we know. As for AJ's OBP, in his 16 seasons, he's been .300+ for all of them- except '13, when he barely missed. Salty? In the last 5 seasons, he's been .300+ twice, with his best @ .360 in '10. Two out of five ain't bad, I suppose. What I don't get is that if Pinto is the guy to groom (hence the need for the 'Vet Presence' in the first place), then why go with Salty for 3 or 4? AJ for 2 makes more sense. As for the market for catchers, I'd call it thin, and would love to see a list of all those available Cs- then we can compare. Arenciba was non-tendered, and you're right- he was absolutely awful in '13. I'm struggling to see his upside, other than the fact that he's young. But then, so is Pinto... Direct answer to the last question: in a thin catcher market, *not* pursuing 1 of the 2 quality FAs (yep, Salty's the other) would be self-defeating by definition. All your eggs in one basket. How does that make sense?

Ok, thanks Thrylos for the info- I'll start digging into those stats! Still, Silver Slugger & Gold Glove are fine, but not catcher-specific. Everybody gets one, but not everybody can be a good catcher. The value to the team of a really solid C- as a good game-caller, if nothing else- well, is that just intangible? Think of all of the things you want from a good catcher (and had in Mauer)... Not worthy of a specific award? One of the most demanding positions on the diamond, if not the most.

Good points, and a bit of outside the box with Davis. Thinking. Don't see it happening though. cmatthewson sums it up well, but I don't see Salty coming in for cheap- or for a short-term deal. Overpay. If Pinto has the upside, then give AJ 1yr/10mil and be done with it. No way we chase or sign Ellsbury or Choo- too expensive- not sure they're all that anyway. Help is on the way.

Ok, I am a new guy round here, but have been a Twins fan since the '70s (Roy Smalley was my hero). Anyway, as a SABR-challenged (I respect it, gotta dig into it more, tho) kinda guy, I was inspired by jcphitman's thread on the Correia deal to just jump in. Ok, here's the deal. My buddy is a dyed in the wool Cards fan, and so thru the PS, he was raving about Molina, while I stuck Ortiz in his face. Anyway, right around this time, the Mauer move was made, which begged a couple of questions. (Discussed over beers, of course.) 1) HOF- looking ahead, he's got a strong shot. Boost those batting numbers a bit, bump the black ink, and he's in. But as C or 1B? Does finishing his career at 1B hurt his chances? In as a C or 1B? 2) We realized that while we have PS awards for nearly everything, there's nothing for catcher. Why? 3) Looking at Baseballref, I'm not seeing any special metrics for C. Why? (or maybe, how?) 4) We all know what a difference a smart C can do for a team behind the dish. Calling pitches, framing pitches, handling the pitcher... the list goes on, but it's all "intangibles", right? Who would deny the value of a solid C? How do you measure that stuff? So, my questions are: 1- Why is there no post-season catcher award? 2- If we have one, what do we name it? Johnny Bench Award or Josh Gibson Award? Something else? 3- What metrics are there- or should be developed- to evaluate catchers for this award- or in general at C? Is it just CS? Nothing else? SABR guys, help me! Anyway- just an observation- seems like a big hole in the PS awards. The campaign for a change starts here.

Ok, the reason I kicked this thread was to see how pursuing AJ looks in the post Nolasco/Hughes context. Does he have holes in his game? Heck yeah- no arm, no wheels and the SO/BB ratio is sick. Guy doesn't walk. Ever. Point taken. But he gets on base... My basic view on this this- gut- is that Pinto has something to offer if groomed correctly. He could be the wave of the future. Meantime, we need an adult back there (at least part of the time). C is a position Twins need to address, and I'm glad they're showing interest in the 2 biggest FAs- Salty and AJ. I anticipate that whoever they sign will not play every day- the project should be to get Pinto in there, and to guide him on the way, IMO. Develop the guy. So from that standpoint, AJ's K/BB numbers don't scare me so much. If we're serious about landing Salty, what do we have to lay out in $$ and years? If Pinto can develop with vet guidance, then AJ is a short-term solution to a short-term problem. Honestly, what would a Salty signing bring to the table?

I'm going with the Bo-Jackson-spiked-Terry-Ryan's-DNA-for-a-week-last-week conspiracy theory. So there. Wasn't on these boards when Correia was signed, but as a long-time fan, all I heard was Peggy Lee's "Is That All There Is?" on the devil's radio in my head. Killed me. Every indication at the end-of-season press conference w/Gardy was that TR was staying true to his dumpster-diving self. I think the thing swaying people following the Nolasco move is that he *followed through* (for a BIG change) with Hughes AND seems intent on AJ. That changes things now, and no doubt influences how we look through the wayback machine on Correia. A week ago, we're looking at moves for Kris Johnson & Freyer. Same old, same old. Then this. Correia is a #4 guy, and he did #4 guy-type stuff in '13. Fine, and compared to the other FAs (good presentation, btw!) he did a solid job. He'll fit right in come '14, and could benefit from the presence of the new SPs. Or a belligerent AJ goading him. And he can move on in '15. The key here is context. Nolasco is not a #1, but will have that role- on down the line. True #4 Correia becomes our #3, and hopefully Deduno can bounce @ #4 and do better. That's the new context. Old context was: trying to pawn off a #4 as a #1. I'm no SABRhead, but I appreciate it and am learning. S-l-o-w-l-y. Maybe Kevin Slowly. Anyway, the Nolasco/Hughes signings are a break from past behavior for TR. Is the famous (I kid here) Twins stats Dept. finally getting a say here? (Do we have one? Are they making this stuff up?) If so, then maybe- in retrospect- their fingerprints are on the Correia deal. Otherwise, with respect to TR, all I can say is, "Suzy Creamcheese, what's go into you?"

This is a sea change, no doubt- and I like it! Good points about Hughes. I'm not crazy about him, but expect him to benefit greatly from pitching at TF. Does he shave a point off his ERA from that alone? It's quite possible that he benefits from Mr. Mechanics, Rick Anderson, too. As for the money-where-your-mouth-is commitment to getting better, you are right. Unprecedented in Twins history, and about time, too. Might take time to adjust to this new world- we'll see where it goes. Either way, '14 season has become meaningful, and the excitement is justified.

This thread dead yet? Or, does the word from LEN3 bring it back to life? AJ is an "edgy" guy and MIN's clubhouse is as edgy as a billiard ball right now. Play the game right. Do the little things. Blah blah blah. Enough already. Solid, winning attitude (he has a ring) C w/good offensive production & can mentor Pinto- what's not to love about this deal? Good battery mate for new signs Nolasco & Hughes, could inspire confidence in them & spur guys like Correia, Deduno, and the rest. Is it AJ vs. Salty now? Why is there a debate? AJ is the perfect solution, gets Pinto ready for '15 & saves us money in doing so.

Albers is the Second Coming of Jamie Moyers, mark my words. Tons of tradeable guys now; let the #5 spot scrum take care of itself. Use these pieces to get a solid #4 starter.

@ 101- With you on Pelfrey, though I'm not sure they make a move for him. #4 Spot, to me, is Deduno- gut tells me he improves in '14 and has a chance to put it all together. #5 spot is Albers/Diamond/Worley/Swarzack/Meyer? fighting it out. Competition for that spot takes care of itself. Apparently TR has changed his spots- hanging with Bo Jackson & swilling 8-hr. energy by the case? Anyway unexpected given his m.o., but a welcome surprise. With abut $30m left to sped, I see three options after signing a C- PLEASE let it be AJ! 1) Traditional approach: Twins stand pat now and re-evaluate come July; package #5 spot losers plus a prospect & do a midseason trade. Depending on how Deduno does, he might be in that mix. Pick up 1-2 arms? 2) Twins wait for better SP FA market following '14. Evaluate needs following extended looks at everyone.- SPs & pos. players. 3) Through the looking glass: TR really has changed his spots & makes a bid for another arm now, hopefully a power/SO type like Garza (please, not Kazmir). I like the aggressiveness (for a change), and the years/dollars terms are not unreasonable. We've got a lot of tradeable guys/can package a few arms + a prospect + cash? heading into the winter meetings, and still have cash to spend. Would not be surprised to see one more deal for a 'quality' arm- whether this OS, midseason, or postseason. Lord knows we need it, but '14 looks a lot more like meaningful baseball now. A bridge to '15 & '16 to be sure, but with breathing room for guys like Pinto, good chance for the SR to stabilize, & get Sano, Bux?, and maybe Meyer wet behind the ears. Pick at the details all you want, but this is heading in the right direction. Next, make Molitor mgr. in '15!

Couple of ways to look at this signing- personally, I like it. Twins didn't overpay in a thin market when we're desperate to improve. Innings-eater who stands to benefit in TF? What's not to like if this is just Step 1? Also noted that this is the biggest FA signing in club history. Is Mr. "FA is not the way" TR under orders? Reports I'm seeing is that Twins are being extremely aggressive this offseason. That's music to my ears, and represents a sea change for the club- good. Finally! As a 3x90+ loser, there's no way we're a go-to destination for FA SPs. Gotta be realistic, folks. We have to build a bridge, otherwise we can't get there from here. This is a serious step in the right direction. I've stated previously that the Twins have to pony up just to get in the conversation with decent FAs. As it happens, we're relatively flush with cash now, and can still afford another arm (or two, I hope). This was a good buy, better than a trade w/prospects moving on. We've got a good farm w/depth & will see Buxton, Sano, etc. making the transition in '14. My greatest worry to date been that habitual Scrooge TR was not inclined to spend to put together a credible rotation to support them. My gut tells me that TR has seen the writing on the wall, knows he's painted himself into a corner, and has no option but to go out there, spend for once, and get deals done. I expect another SP signing nothing spectacular- esp. given this market- and then maybe a serious play for Salty. Not a fan of him, but whatever. We need a couple of good arms and depth at C wouldn't hurt, though I want to see Pinto get a clear shot in '14. TR's job is on the line, IMO, and if they don't make moves like this to put together a credible starting rotation, then we will continue to be stuck in the AAAA mode of drafting well/developing, then losing our good players to FA. I for one am sick of that "model". If mid-market teams like the Cards (and '13 KC were credible) can put together contenders year after year, then why not the Twins? Something does not compute. Bottom line: Twins have a cash cow in Target Field, moved a lot of bucks off the books, and have the $25m TV money coming in. There are no excuses not to spend now. Twins fans are on the verge of open revolt, and not making serious moves risks alienating the fan base and killing the golden goose, TF. We're a repeat loser shopping in a crappy market and have no choice but to suck it up and spend now. Next offseason should see a better SP FA market. The last thing I want to see is Twins flogging Buxton jerseys in '14 (I can hear Dick Bremer now) with a crap rotation & no chance to win. Welcome to the bigs, you're hung out to dry? No thanks. When you're worse than even the 'Stros (good God!)- at the bottom of all MLB in ERA, there's only one way to go- up. This is a good deal. Hope they keep it going.

My nominee for the 1-year turnaround would be The Gambler. His numbers were up and down, and when he signed, he had bounced around a bit. Really felt as though he was looking for a springboard, and the Twins were taking a shot. He got the springboard. After his 1-year shot with the Twins? Lead the AL in GS the next season (35). Also: 3 All Stars, 2 Gold Gloves, 3 Postseason wins, including G2 '06 WS...

AJ is a plus Crash Davis, face it! Piss & vinegar. Rose goes on the front. Of course Mauer is going to be dipping in behind the dish as much as possible because he'll miss it, so input from him won't be an issue. AJ bats L, compliments Pinto, and can't stop talking. Question is culture. The Molina conjecture is a good one- w/no bat and age an issue, he should stand to be a cheap signing for a short-term deal. No risk. Twins do not have the most diverse clubhouse in MLB, and all coaching spots seem to be filled by native, monolingual English-speakers. Yet scouting has traditionally been focused on the Caribbean! Get him in the org on the cusp of retirement, then keep him on as a coach somehow/ somewhere. This is how you develop depth & maturity at a position.

Ok, fine- if Twins sign oldish Arroyo and youngish Nolasco, then I can see stability to the SR, & added credibility for FA signings going forward, without breaking the budget. Question is: what are his contract terms, and why would he leave '14 faves LAD for MIN?

An innings-eater is not a bad idea for this club, and I agree- IF he's the #2 along with a #1 SP signing. Twins might be able to push JJ's hometown buttons and get a favorable deal- why not take a shot? I don't see Hudson coming to MN, but Hughes & Kazmir seem like reasonable targets/doable deals. E. Santana is dreaming $$$; we'll see if MLB drinks his Kool-Aid or not. If the bottom falls out for him, sign him. What I do not understand is the Twins addiction to a nit-picking/nibbling the zone, pitch-to-contact philosophy when we have a pitcher's park. Does TR know where to drive come game time? We have a different park now, play on grass, and the team's pitching coaching, philosophy & FA acquisitions must reflect this new reality. We have a surplus of OFs with speed & leather in place in or on the way- hello, Byron- and yet we are stuck in a small-ball/Dome-based approach, fooling nobody. Why? For the first time I can remember, Twins have more cash than they know what to do with, and an owner willing to spend. FA signings can't do it all, but get a credible SR and go from there- talented fielders & bats are on the way, and they deserve to be supported with good SP. MN is flyover country for most MLB SP FAs, so we need to pony up to get into the conversation. Why do Twins SPs take off once they leave MN? Apparently we can develop SPs and OFs. Why are the Twins MLB's gift that keeps on giving? This has to end eventually, and if TR doesn't come through this winter, show him the door. Almost time for a housecleaning.

Good list, great writing! I'm warming to the idea of Arroyo so long as he is the #2 signing to compliment a #1 SO king/ flame-throwa/young gun w/upside. Sounds like Kazmir- I'll have to look into hi in more detail. Arroyo could be a good influence on guys like Albers, otherwise flag down Jamie Moyer's RV and park him at Target Field for the summer to mentor our soft-throwers and show 'em how it's done. NL pedigree is not a red flag, but a plus- advantage P when switching leagues. Agree that Deduno has upside if he can control it/find a mentor. Albers has upside, too, with the right coaching. Johan should not be a part of this conversation- 2 (!) capsule ops? Ok, if it's a short, all-incentives, prove-it deal, fine. Reunion-wise, Garza gets the nod. The point (halfchest) about hanging on to our prospects is right on target. For once, Twins have cash & an owner willing to spend (+ the $25m TV money), so use it. Let's get ready for Sano & Buxton now. Overpaying is likely to be the norm this off-season, but we can afford "reasonable overpay" if the deal is right (a la #2 Johnson). CBS has a story confirming Twins are looking for 2 vets; seeing the name Zito on this list scares the willies out of me. Makes the prospect of the Singing Saturn Nut seem tame by comparison. If anyone can explain the addiction to pitch-to-contact Ps when we have a pitcher-friendly park + a glut of good-D OFs (and gaping holes at SS & 3B) then I would be most enlightened. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24228394/finding-low-strikeout-pitch-to-contact-free-agent-starters-for-the-twins

With all respect, what is going right in the Twins clubhouse? Or is it just chilling out and (passively) waiting for the next AB? Exactly. So-called "troublemakers" have no place in baseball, right? Ty Cobb was an aberration, and a respectful attitude to fellow players is what makes the game great. Last thing we would want is for 'our Twins' to step out of the MN/Scando-something mold and get pissed at losing, then do something about it. Win! (or try your best) Twins! Better stay the course. Safer = better. Hosanna.

Johan is shot. 1 shoulder capsule? Bad, bad news. 2? Forget it. If he comes in on a short, prove-it basis, then he might be an ok signing. Key though would be his role in the bullpen and the clubhouse. There's an inherent contradiction though, in that JS is a power/SO pitcher. "Twins Way" is all nitpicking, "pitch-to-contact" approach. Who wins that way? Why not sign Jamie Moyer? Twins have a real crossroads ahead. The days of "gotcha" small-ball in AL parks is over. Everybody's wise to that. Twins SP don't pitch for strikes and aren't power arms as a rule. Twins pitching philosophy seems to be: cheat your way thru, pick the corners, never challenge, try to get lucky/hope for the best, pray for rain. Who knows? You might get lucky for 100 P at the MLB level! Rick Anderson needs to go. Where is the winning philosophy here? Why do the Twins avoid signing SO power pitchers like the plague? Is it just from being cheap? Addiction to the mentality that The Farm is actually producing kick-ass all-rounders? Where, in the world of baseball, is striking out batters a bad thing? Not even one guy in the rotation? And you're trying to sell this 'product' for a buck? Get out of town. Though the Twins farm system is good at producing outfielders, they can't produce good infielders or pitchers. Who was the last All-Star SP from the Twins farm? Do the Twins have a tradition of developing starting pitching? Why not? Accountability. Terry Ryan, you're fired. Spent this last WS cheering for BOSox/Ortiz on principle vs. a co-worker who is a lifelong Cards fan. Why in hell can the Cards produce a WS SP Wacha on a seemingly clocklike basis, whereas the Twins (farm system highly rated, frequently compared w/Birdos) can't come up with a GD decent SP? Why does Albers have to literally hunt the scouts down just to get a shot? How ignorant of talent can you be? I am a lifelong Twins fan- hometown-no choice. For better or worse, they're my team. I'll live & die by them. Why the Vikes have more fans, despite an 0-4 championship record is beyond me. I want my team to win. You compete to win, otherwise, you stay at home. I am sick and tired of TR excuses for being a cheap-ass and playing fans along. Twins are flush after fan support at Target Field + new TV deal (extra $25 mil). Prediction: TR signs one mid-level SP (reclamation project) on the cheap for a couple of years at most, and "fill holes" with the rabble we have on hand already. None of our SPs are 1-2-3 ready on any other rotation in the MLB, but TR will go on a PR blitz to convince you so. Shysterism.

Thinking about it, I could see Brad Radke replacing Anderson as pitching coach under this scenario. Morris might be a better choice, but... trying to be realistic. Not sure what BR is up to these days.

Hmmm. Who feels juiced about Florimon? He has to be the target of this deal, and if that's pressure on him to get it together and perform, then I'm all for it. Seems lo-risk, tho there was no $ amount in the article. Leverage move. Smart. We'll see in ST if he's hungry and still has something to prove... and if his body is whole. Otherwise, Bartlett = Nibblet. Lil' can o' corn. If he flunks MLB ball, he can always get a job at Tommy Bartlett's Robot World in the Dells. "Celebrity" endorsement possibilities abound. And, he can commute! Road-trip must-stop on the way to MIL interleague games.

AJ is an interesting possibility mainly in that Dougie is on record as saying he wants AJ as his bench coach. My sense is that AJ's already begun angling for a post-playing career. 3 years as WS 'analyst' + forays into WWF mgmt. makes this pretty clear. I think he's got 1 or maybe 2 seasons left in him, then it's time to transition. My gut tells me his next signing is all about the post-playing end game. IMHO, Twins are on the verge of a housecleaning, and 2 years for Gardy is a courtesy. Bringing Molitor in is a thinly-veiled tryout, and the writing is on the wall. Should Gardy go after '14, Mollie becomes Skip, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Dougie + AJ coming up to fill in on coaching roles. If Gardy goes, Anderson goes, so a full housecleaning is in on the cards. In such a scenario, I couldn't say who would fill all the coaching spots (yet), but an AJ vs. Steinbach matchup under that scenario has to go to AJ. He would also have the advantage of stabilizing Pinto & Mauer's transition & making sure there's a good game-caller behind the plate. Besides that, I think having an AJ on your team is always better than having him going against your team. If he's an SOB, let's make him OUR SOB. Pinto shows great promise, and I'm high on him- give him a ton of at bats and guide him into things. I don't kid myself and think he can do 162 in '14 though. He's got tons of upside, but needs a mentor. Mauer can and will do all he can, but he has his own transition to focus on. AJ as mentor for Pinto would be ideal. Any speculation or hope for signing Salty is equivalent to throwing money down a toilet. The guy has no game-sense and is a proven loose cannon. Save the money (and heartache) and develop Pinto instead. AJ turns a whitebread, lackadaisical clubhouse into a seething cauldron of piss & vinegar. Twins win.

Agree with others who say that 2 'big name' FA SP signings is realistic, esp; given Ryan's stated disposition to FAs. Just don't see him reinventing his outlook in the offseason. That said, I think 1 good, young FA (i.e., a E. Santana/Shelds) with upside + an innings-eater vet sounds very much like Ryan's personality. Seems like a realistic 'fit' from his perspective. I can envision a Phase 2 in 2014 offseason where Twins try to attract a higher level of SP talent based on a more respectable '14 finish & promise of a core built around Sano & Buxton. As much as I want the Twins to go big with sensible SP FA signings, the market is a bit thin this year, so overpaying will be the rule. Would Scherzer be great? Of course. Is Ryan willing to spend big, or likely to 'plug holes' with middling FAs + international signings/bargain bin reclamation projects? You know the score. A slightly overpriced Shields or Ervin seems doable. Given that, 2 solid guys, 1 young(ish) with upside and 1 vet with presence seems like about the best we can hope for. Hopefully Twins as an org. realize that they are never going to be a go-to destination for FAs, and can only attract talent with talent (and a winning record). Step 1 has to be getting over .500... Twins have no trading chips, so FA is the only way to get there now.