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Mike Sixel

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Everything posted by Mike Sixel

  1. I think we are all dreaming if we think any of Rosario, Sano, Buxton start the year in MN. I think it is likely Meyer is in the minors. I think Burdi is in the minors. Frankly, I don't see a lot of help from the minors the first 2 months of the year, unless Meyer is up.....
  2. People post all kinds of crazy stuff.....doesn't make it true.
  3. If they didn't think they could sign him....and didn't think they were winning the WS with him this year, then trading him is the right idea. Whether the trade was good or not depends on how you feel about Miller.
  4. You do recall Kemp is a bit of a moper, right? He's also an LA guy through and through, will people be ok when he pulls a Nolasco/Darrin Nelson and says he wishes he was still in LA?
  5. He's the DH in 2 years, I'd guess.
  6. You can afford both a SP and Tomas, if they just use profits saved from previous years as the signing bonus money......or if they get Tomas for $10MM per year......still no idea if he's any good or not.
  7. KLAW's insider article is just now up. He likes the deal for both teams, if I read it correctly.
  8. Sano will start in the minors, that's been clearly stated by TR, I believe* *unless I remember wrong, which is possible.
  9. Please do not sign Hunter. He's an awful fielder, he's not part of the future, go for it: go get a player in trade or something.
  10. Well, not living there, I can only go by what is on line.....you are closer obviously, since you are a fan, I believe.
  11. Braves are rebuilding, and did not think they could sign Heward to an extension. My guess is they are trying hard to get younger. I agree, though, you have to really like Miller to like this deal for them.
  12. Cards have done this before, then re-signed the OF. If they sign Heyward to a reasonable deal, I like this for them, I think.
  13. I know you are smart, so I know you know that in math and science......and process control, and other use of statistic, MUCH of what we do/rely on is "subjective". Many, many things are not measurable other than through observation and the scientists use of those observations. Doesn't make them a "sham", makes them biased by the observer's knowledge and lens (for all science, btw, not just "subjective" science).
  14. Really? have you actually read these? http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/ "Given the nature of the calculation and potential measurement errors, WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate." "Our measures of both are more uncertain than our measures of offense, so players who get a good amount of their value through their defensive ratings likely have more uncertainty around their WAR value than players who have defensive value closer to average. This does not mean that WAR is wrong or biased, but rather that it is not yet capable of perfect accuracy and should be used as such." http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/ because they admit, over and over, that they are estimating things and that it is not precise. They freely state exactly what they do to calculate the stat. If one can't figure out that it is based on observation and estimates of defense, then they aren't reading the definition and explanation at all. "So, even after regression, there is no guarantee that our UZR number reflects what the player actually did or his true defensive talent over that time period. But, it is the best we can do (not knowing anything else about that player)!" http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/drs/ "Before drawing any conclusions about a player’s defense, look at a full three years of defensive data, drop the decimal points and take an average, and compare DRS scores with other defensive metrics (UZR, TZL, etc.). By taking a broader picture, you will help ensure that you’re not being over-confident or overstating a player’s defensive abilities."
  15. Sham? That is a huge exaggeration. Huge. So, everytime someone says it is about scouting.....they should say that there are flaws in scouting, and it isn't exact? that's not how communication works, it just isn't.
  16. That was basically the same game as the Vikings / Bears game......if the other team isn't killing themselves, the game isn't that close. The coaching in the 4th quarter for the Gophers was bizarre, imo. Punting there (the fumbled one) was a really bad decision. The lack of urgency on that drive was terrible also. That's all on the coaches. That said, the other team did give them a chance, and they nearly took advantage of it. Still a loss, but they did not quit or get rolled.
  17. You may or may not know.......Cuba did several things to make the league less offense focused two years ago. So, his OPS looks lower than other Cubans for sure. I have no idea if Tomas is good or not, I'm not nearly as excited about him as I was Abreu or Puig.....based on what you can read on line.
  18. I'd keep none of the pitchers on that list, not on the 40 man. If they pass waivers, great..... Hitters is tough. That largely depends on if they can find even 1 OF in FA or in trade. If not, sigh, you have to keep some of those guys. I think you can waive all but Nunez and they won't get picked up, but I could be wrong on that.......
  19. BJ Hermsen? Wow.
  20. Seattle's pitching is very good to great....they need hitting. Trading Walker for hitting and lesser pitching is exactly what a win now team would do, unless there is a FA they love.
  21. Sano and Buxton might not be ready this year.......what do you do in LF and CF until 2016?
  22. Precision vs. direction........ The offensive side of WAR doesn't seem to be up for debate. Some very smart people have proposed that you can estimate (note that word, estimate) defensive runs saved. Not ONE PERSON has suggested an alternative that takes into account defense and running. All they do is say "i trust my eyes", except none of those guys go and chart EVERY SINGLE play, and use their eyes and write down what happens in all of MLB. What is a better alternative, right now? By this logic, science should never posit theories, and use the knowledge we have, because no knowledge is perfect. I prefer the imperfect to the "don't even try". That's how you end up with the world is flat, mankind will never fly, etc.....
  23. I pretty much hate all the options to fix the OF right now. Good luck to TR on fixing even one of the positions this year. This is, of course, why I believe you don't wait until the "perfect" time to sign a FA, because there might not be one there in the future that helps you.....when you have money and need, and there is a FA, sign him.
  24. Before Ryan, in the same stadium, they made Jack Morris one of the highest paid players in baseball. They also signed other expensive (at the time) players. So, it isn't just "before Target Field"....there is precedence in the delta between McPhail and TR as GMs. I'm sure there's some other reason people will offer that explains that away. What's with the myth that the Cardinals don't sign free agents? I've never read one person here suggest the Twins spend more than $125MM or so, and even that is an outlier at the upper end of what people have suggested. I've never read anyone here say they should try to spend as much as LA or NYY. What people have asked for is that when they are spending 75 or 80MM.....that they either: 1. Save money for the future, and spend really big.....using that money and not then saying they have a high payroll. 2. Signing 1-2 good FA a year, every year, until they don't have zero legit OF options during an entire season.
  25. Give that Cubans are no longer cheap.....I too think it is possible.
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