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Mike Sixel

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Everything posted by Mike Sixel

  1. Mike Sixel
    uh, wut? I "hijacked" a thread to discuss if minor league winning was predictive of major league winning, and if we should use that as a tool to discuss how good the minors were.
  2. Mike Sixel
    FYI: Anthony 1:59 What makes Dan Straily sort of good? Can he keep doing this? Eno Sarris 2:00 1) Has the biggest or second biggest difference between the fastball and changeup vertically, meaning he's combining a rising fastball (popups) with a great change (whiffs and grounders). 2) Throws anything in any count. 3) Has decent command and three legit pitches. I think he can be league average, slightly better, for a while, yes.
  3. Mike Sixel
    I don't think I've ever said the current pipeline is bad, I've said it was lacking in high upside guys (just like the article) and has lots of depth. I love Gordon, I think one of the AA pitchers will be good, one will be ok, and one will be a RP, I just don't know which ones (and I count Thorpe in that list). I think Turley can be a RP in the majors, maybe a really good one. I don't know if anyone in A ball and below has enough track record or (to me) pedigree other than Lewis for me to know much about confidence wise.
  4. Mike Sixel
    Agree with nearly all of that. It's about the cost, and about if you believe in Gray. I don't know if we have seen all the "big" trades yet. I guess the Quintana trade does not agree with you that no big trades have happened this year, and we are still 10ish days from the deadline. We'll see what happens. edit: Oops, I missed you said rentals. Other than Santana, I don't think the Twins have an asset teams would value super highly (that is available). Kintzler is an interesting case. he's a FA, and he's been good. I would keep him, unless they lose a lot the next 10 days. I'm on the "trade marginal prospect(s) for MLB player(s)" side right now. That's especially true because I don't think they are willing to promote guys I would promote right now.
  5. Mike Sixel
    I agree the side taking is tiring..... I agree that trading a guy outside their top prospects, in their mind, for short term help, is fine. It's the specifics of a bigger trade I'd want to think about more.
  6. Mike Sixel
    Meh, none of those guys even crack the top 10-15 for MN......not sure I'd trade 4 guys in that range for 1 guy, though. Not sure I wouldn't either.
  7. Mike Sixel
    to me, I'd rather they hurry thru A ball, and spend more time in AA and AAA, being challenged. If they are going to hurry at all. Like Rooker this year. They are really, imo, challenging him. I like that.
  8. Mike Sixel
    we don't agree that only a WS championship matters, but I get your point.
  9. Mike Sixel
    too late, I think he's back with his old team.
  10. Mike Sixel
    they don't. Well, I think Santana might be worth that. But the point was, they traded players when they were around .500, and that gave them good depth to trade from in future years. Kind of like what some of us wanted done before the year started. Kind of like what some people want (I'm not currently on one side or the other) now. edit to add: I wonder if this year's Yankees players are playing so badly because the FO gave up on the team last year /s.....
  11. Mike Sixel
    Uh, that has nothing to do with my post at all. I asked if outcomes matter for predicting the future, or if underlying stats did. No place did that post talk about if they should sell or buy. No. Place.
  12. Mike Sixel
    No, I never once said don't try. But can you name any team getting a good starting pitcher for their 15th ranked prospect? I've said on several threads that if the FO has players they don't like, past number 8 or so on the list, trade them all for good MLB players. But I can't imagine any team trading a good SP for the Twins number 15 prospect.
  13. Mike Sixel
    I think that's totally fair. Of course, you are also giving up Gordon and one of the good AA pitchers and 1-2 more players, not just Gordon. I don't know what to think of Gray, frankly. If the FO thinks he's going to be a 2/3 for three years, I probably do what it takes to get him. Probably.
  14. Mike Sixel
    I'm not sure I agree that winning in the minors predicts long term success in the majors, but I hope you are right. Like I said in my follow up, if there is a causation, great! If not, and I have never seen anything that says there is, then also great. As one counter point, look at Kohl Stewart, he helps his team win a lot, but is anyone here predicting he'll do that in MN right now? What about Nick Turly or Justin Haley or Michael Tonkin in AAA, are we predicting they'll help MN? I agree, it might indicate something, but I'm not convinced that's true. I'd want some data. And no, I'm not asking you to do that, that would be unfair of me to ask. I'm merely pointing out my skepticism.
  15. Mike Sixel
    It was about if the minor leagues are helpful/good or not, right? Unless I misunderstood, my friend the birdwatcher was stating that the minor leagues winning is a good predictor of their ability to help the major league team. If not, then I'm not sure why I care if they win or not, as a Twins' fan. I'm glad for them, their teammates, their families, their fans. But as a Twins' fan, unless there is some causation that I am not aware of, I'm not sure why I care. Is there causation? If so, then I'm thrilled!
  16. Mike Sixel
    I'm not sure, I'd have to look at Straily more closely to know. Until this post, he hasn't even been on my radar!
  17. Mike Sixel
    I'm confused by the thread. I'd think talking about Polanco being good or bad, and if he should be the starter instead of Escobar, on a team that some think is a legit contender, makes sense. We should just ignore Rosario, at 25 and 7 years a pro ball player, throwing to the wrong base multiple times this season? I'd think discussing Belisle, Breslow, Boshers, Turley, Colon, nearly every pitcher they've added from the outside, makes sense. I'd think discussing Gimenez vs Garver makes sense. I'd think discussing Haley and him taking up valuable 25 man roster space makes sense. What, exactly, should we talk about? Just the good stuff?
  18. Mike Sixel
    Jay has no value. None. Stewart might have a tiny bit of value, but who knows. Jorge is probably a RP going forward. So, a maybe SS and a RP and a 4th OF and a flyer for two legit players that are cost controlled for several years? I can't see Miami doing that. I love Gordon, and even I would most likely do that deal (not having closely examined Straily or Ramos lately) if I thought Straily was a legit pitcher.
  19. Mike Sixel
    What if Sheffiled was a number 4 in 2018, and a number 2 in 19-23? Is that worth giving up on the long shot that is this year? Or, does only this year matter in the analysis?
  20. Mike Sixel
    The twins are good because of their outcomes, not their underlying stats, but Meyer is bad because of his underlying stats, outcomes be damned?
  21. Mike Sixel
    You think they can trade the number 15 guy in the org for a competent starter? I'm all for that. good luck on that phone call though.
  22. Mike Sixel
    You might want to avoid the news next week.....
  23. Mike Sixel
    the twins minor leagues have winning records a lot. Indeed, it has been pointed out in the past that their use of older players in low rookie ball, and inflated winning percentages don't mean much. And no, I don't have a link to that old article handy. That hasn't translated very well into major league wins lately. I think that was the point. I don't care if the minor league teams win a lot. I care if the MLB teams wins a lot.
  24. Mike Sixel
    I agree it wasn't harmful. I don't understand the "in fairness" part that implies it's acceptable and not predictive of Grossman. That's been my question all along, what does "in fairness" mean, exactly? It's clear the OP thinks he wasn't trying fully, based on his words. That's not acceptable. And again, that throw is part of an actual strategy to try something, and his action should be measured in the context of them trying something on purpose, and being willing to have an INT. What was Grossman trying at that moment that was strategic?
  25. Mike Sixel
    it's not a matter of "being fleeced" to me, it's a matter of timing and context of other players/options. There is a pretty long article on Gray on Fangraphs, and his underlying stuff. Those proposing the Twins give up a 10 year starter at SS/2B and a AA starting pitcher that might help them, and 1-2 other token pieces might want to read that. Look, I'm part of the "when does the future ever show up" crowd. But I'm also part of the "let's be somewhat realistic" crowd. In context of the rest of the team, and the fact that I think Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Thorpe can provide 1 good pitcher and 1 number 5 and 1 RP.....I am not ready to trade Gordon (and one of those guys, and 1-2 more guys) for a guy that has been hurt and isn't looking great in those things that predict if he'll be good next year also. this team needs a DH, their C to hit, their SS to hit, their CF to hit. It needs it 1B to hit. That's on the "good side" of the team! It needs a #3 or better starter, and 2 RPs. next year, when Santana is a year older, they'll need another starter. They'll probably need another RP or two. I'm not convinced now is the time. had they even tried to fix the bullpen, or add a legit starter coming into the year, I'd be more convinced that the FO thinks it's time.
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