Reider

Florimon is younger, faster, more durable, has better tools defensively, had more stolen bases than Drew last year, and is obviously much much cheaper. Drew is good defensively and he gets on base. That's Drew. He doesn't hit a lot of home runs and he doesn't steal many bases. Not to mention last year he set a career high for strike outs. I get that he has a higher batting average and has more walks etc.. which helps with these other numbers that are mentioned, but his .253 batting average really doesn't impress me a whole lot. What impresses me about Drew is that he gets on base. He gets some hits, he draws walks, and he's pretty good defensively. There's not really much else that impresses me. He's on the wrong side of 30, his health is a bit of a quesiton mark, and his playoff performance has massively declined since 2007. Oh and he can't hit lefties, so he'd be a good platoon candidate. Coming off of a career high # of strike outs makes me wonder if and when he will be set for a decline. Is it next year or in 2 or 3 years? Of course, he's been so consistent over his career, he could maintain a respectable .OBP even with a lot of strike outs. I see the value in Drew defensively and his ability to get on base. He's not going to hit a lot of home runs and he's definitely not going to steal bases, so you'd probably want to put him in front of someone who can drive the ball into or over the wall. As for the 20-26x the price + the second round draft pick to go along with all of the other negative aspects about Drew, I"m just trying to explain that there is the law of diminishing returns to take into consideration. I'm not saying that the Twins shouldn't sign Drew. They can do whatever they want and having Drew on the team wouldn't suck. I think I would rather pass on Drew, give Florimon another chance, then go after Hardy or find someone else. But if the Twins want to spend the money and make a commitment on Drew right now, I know that he would help the team. And to be honest, after 3 years of sitting on their hands, it really wouldn't hurt the Twins to spend some $. I get that. I"m as frustrated about the Twins kicking the can down the road as every other fan. One thing I like about Hardy over Drew is that even though Drew walks more than Hardy, Hardy strikes out less and hits more home runs. With Morneau gone, Willingham and Plouffe's HR's down last year, Hardy's power would be nice in the line up.

If Drew is of such great value, large upgrade, and a sure thing, why haven't the Twins or any other team in the league for that matter, signed him? If he was a bargain or great value at the price he's asking, some team would have signed him months ago.

Drew is a better bet to have a higher OBP in the future, that's pretty much it. Florimon is younger, more durable, and a good bet to be better defensively moving forward. Not to mention, much cheaper. But yes, if you want a guy that has a good track record for getting on base, Drew can do that. But at what price? The Twins already had Hardy! That's the thing. They didn't even realize what they had and got rid of him and here we are wondering how we can get a player like him back on the team. If the Twins would have kept him, this would be a non-issue. Why not? There' are things called opportunity costs, cost benefit analysis', and diminishing returns. The Twins can get more bang for their buck in improving this team elsewhere, which they've already proven by signing players in a more desperate area of need: starting pitchers.

Well it's already the middle of January. It would be pretty crazy if the Twins are just realizing now that they need to upgrade their offense for next season. After watching their aggressiveness in signing starting pitchers, it wouldn't surprise me if they were aggressive with signing other players too. However, it just seems like they are kicking their offensive can down the road considering they've signed guys like Bartlett, Kubel, and Suzuki. When they trade for or sign a big name guy, I'll believe it. So if the Twins signed Drew, you would keep Florimon? Who would Drew replace on the roster then? Escobar or Plouffe? The Twins would have an awesome defensive infield if Drew played 3rd base. That's hypothetical of course.. it's not that I see it actually happening.

Of course I mean defensively. I think the Twins should persue any player who could help improve the team, but I don't think Drew is worth $10m+/year + a 2nd round draft pick for 3 years. I just wouldn't do it unless it was an "all-in" situation. I like Drew better on a 1 or 2 year deal and 7 figures instead of 8. Reality is the Twins have been sitting on their hands since the end of 2010 and they improved the starting rotation this off season because they had to. I really can't see them signing Drew or all of a sudden becoming aggressive on the offensive side of things. I really like giving Florimon another year at his current salary and I am getting the impression that a lot of fans feel strongly about signing Drew. So strongly that it comes across as "Drew or bust." I don't see it that way. Hardy is available on trade and he could very well be available next off season as a free agent. I'd rather go after or wait for Hardy than sign Drew. That way it's a win win. You give Florimon his well earned opportunity and then improve the offense @ SS if / when he doesn't show any improvement. And Hardy is only one example. The Twins will likely have at least a couple of years to find a replacement, there's no need to panic. Most of the Twins' young prospects are still developing in the minors. It will be a couple/few years before they are established MLB players (if they ever are). Lastly, I don't call Florimon an experiment. I think he brings a lot to the table defensively and has something to work with offensively. He has value at $500,000/year for the time being.

That's not entirely true. I'm a huge fan of Florimon, but I don't think he will improve significantly (e.g. become a .300 hitter or hit 25 home runs in a season). I've already stated as much on this message board. My belief is that he deserves a second season (or at least the opportunity to start 2014) at SS. I believe he earned it with his defense last year more than anything. I believe that he's already a top 5 SS and can be #2 if he can limit his mistakes. The type of mistakes that can be limited. I believe that this type of defensive talent only comes around every so often (it's been a long time since the Twins have had a dominant defensive SS) and SS is one of those positions where you want to have someone who can help pitchers out, especially on a team like the Twins where the team relies on getting a lot of ground ball outs. If Florimon can can limit his strike out ratio (not an unrealistic goal), he could be "good enough" offensively to go along with his fantastic defense. If you factor in that he's only being paid $500,000/season, he could be of really good value. Obviously if he doesn't show any improvement whatsoever, I'd be more than happy to see the Twins consider their options. I was content with JJ Hardy playing SS and I'd be just fine if they brought him back or signed someone like him down the road. However, given Florimon's defensive abilities and price tag, I also like giving him another opportunity in 2014. I also understand the issue that non-supporters take. I understand that the Twins need to improve offensively, and SS is a position they could upgrade offensively in the short term by signing Drew or someone like him. I'm not necessarily against this. I just believe Florimon should get the start in 2014 @ SS unless the Twins want to go "all-in" this off season and sign a few more players (Garza, Drew, and a good DH etc), in which case I could understand and would be supportive. However, it does not appear that the Twins are being very aggressive on the offensive side of things, so it would not surprise me if they go with Florimon in 2014.

Florimon hit 9 HR's in 2009 and 8 in 2011. Hitting 9 last year wasn't unrealistic for him.

If the Twins can't make a trade for JJ Hardy, they could offer him a contract next off season (if he chooses to become a free agent).

The Twins have already exceeded my expectations this off season, but that doesn't change the fact that I want to see the team win more games. I can't see them winning too many more games unless the offense gets better. The Twins upgraded their starting rotation because they had to. The fact that they haven't been as aggressive on the offensive side tells me that a) they aren't all-in this year and / or they are once again over-estimating their offense and / or C) they are cheap and are trying to kick the can down the road for as long as they can. The reality of the situation is the Twins have been cutting payroll / kicking the can down the road since the end of the 2010 season. I understand that the team is waiting for their young prospects to establish themselves in the MLB, which could take years. But I really hope they plan on building this team into a serious contender over the next couple / few years even if it means spending serious $. Who wants to watch a bunch of can kickers who aren't committed to winning?

This looks accurate as of right now. It'll be interesting to see what the Twins will do if Hicks has another solid spring training. I think all Kubel has to do is show that he can drive the ball hard the way he always does and he'll make the team. Bartlett on the other hand will really have to impress everybody in order to make the starting line up. I see him as more of a long shot than Kubel. Also, it will be interesting to see what will happen if Pinto has a great spring training. I"m sure Suzuki will start game 1, but it would make things interesting if Pinto gives him a run for his money offensively.

What do you expect from him? He is already arguably a top 5 SS, so even if he doesn't improve much, he's still very solid defensively. But he could still improve a bit more. #2 is not out of the question. #1 is not likely unless Simmons gets injured and can't play.

Florimon is already arguably a top 5 SS and has the tools to be the #2 SS defensively next year. The Twins aren't in "win now" mode as most of their great prospects (Hicks, Buxton, Sano, Meyer etc..) are still developing in the minors. So what's the big deal with giving Florimon another year to work on his hitting, while he does his thing defensively? I'd be more in favor of signing Drew if the situation was different. Yep, guys like Buxton, Hicks, Sano and Meyer could be very very solid players in the future. In fact, Arcia and Pinto could be as well. The Twins future has the potential to look very bright. How do we know if Florimon is going to improve or not if we don't give him an opportunity? An opportunity when the Twins are in the basement is a lot easier than when all the young guys are up and they are competing for a Championship. Drew is not our future. At best he would be our "right now." I don't think there's anything wrong with giving Florimon more time to work on his hitting, while the Twins continue looking for their future @ SS.

Everyone does a cost benefit analysis throughout their daily lives, often without even realizing it. Cost benefit analysis' and opportunity costs are a part of life. Especially professional baseball life. In terms of "best baseball player" method. I like that method too. However, when it comes to Drew and Florimon, Drew is not better at everything than Florimon. Florimon is better defensively and is arguably more durable. Drew gets on base more than Florimon and he has consistently done that throughout his career. I see the value in signing Drew for that reason. However, he has trouble hitting lefties. Do you think Gardy would platoon Drew with Escobar or someone else and make sure it's done consistently/properly? I know there are a lot of Twins fans that feel signing Drew is a no brainer, but if Drew was such a great deal, he would have been signed by a team by now. Lets put it this way, I'm not against signing Drew, but the lower his price tag is, the more I like the signing. I'm just having a hard time justifying spending over $10million more on Drew than Florimon when Florimon has already proven he's one of the best defenders in the league and hasn't even been given a chance to improve his hitting #'s from last year. Guys like Parmelee and Plouffe have gotten to come back "the next year" and have failed, yet they are still around. Florimon has earned a chance to improve his numbers in 2014. His defense is so good that I think it's worth giving him more time to work on his hitting. Tell me, other than getting on base, what does Drew do bring to the table that makes him a must have @ 20-26X the price of Florimon + a 2nd round draft pick? He only hit 13HR's last year, so he doesn't bring much power to the table. His career high is 67RBI's so he's not driving in 100+ runs like some players. Speed? Nope, he only had 6 stolen bases to Florimon's 15. Drew also had a career high # of strike outs @ 124. Drew's performance in the playoffs has declined since 2007. I see the value in Drew's OBP, but that's about where it ends. Florimon is younger, faster, more durable, better defensively, and MUCH cheaper. Not to mention Florimon has only played one full season in the MLB and hasn't even been given a chance to improve his hitting.

I see the value in Drew platooning with Escobar. But would the Twins do such a thing? Or at that price would they want him to be an every day starter? If this is the only significant move the Twins make on offense, I might still need some convincing, but if the Twins continue with their aggressiveness this off season and sign Garza and a good DH etc.. I'd be more in favor of going this route. I think it's possible to be aggressive with the offense without upsetting the future.

If you look at the trend from 2007 to 2012 to 2013, his playoff numbers have been regressing. In the 2013 regular season, Drew had a career high # of strike outs (124) even though he had less at bats than the years he had 100 or more strike outs. Drew's batting average over the last 3 seasons has been below his career average. If you take into consideration the questions surrounding his health, his price tag, and the law of diminishing returns factor in signing him, I think playoff performance regression is just another thing to consider before offering him a contract.

How was Drew's hitting in the playoffs when all of the chips were down? Let me help you out: At Bats: 54 AVG: .111 OBP: .140 OPS .344 Strike Outs: 19 Strike out ratio: 35% His playoff numbers weren't great in 2012 either. The last time he performed, when the chips were down, was in the 2007 Playoffs.

See my last post to Brock for clarification on that. You are correct. Overall, Drew is a better baseball player than Florimon, when he's healthy. I'm just saying that defensively, Florimon has the tools to be a #2 SS in the MLB and for the $, I"m not sure Drew would be worth the upgrade as a short term replacement. I think I'd rather give Florimon another year and find a different SS to replace him in the future if he doesn't show any improvement. Defensively, Florimon has a much higher ceiling. He was arguably a top 5 SS last year and has the tools to be a #2 if he limits those "easy" mistakes he made in 2013, which I believe is a mental thing and can be corrected. Offensively, I have to admit, I don't believe Florimon will surpass Drew's career AVE / OBP etc.. but my issue comes down to value. At 20-26x the price + a 2nd round draft pick, I'd rather Florimon be the SS in 2014 and the Twins find another SS of the future over the next year or two. The Twins did have a good one in JJ Hardy, who they traded away. I have faith that they can find another SS who will be a good fit. It seems like people feel like it will be the end of the world if the Twins don't sign Drew.

I'm not rationalizing anything, I"m stating facts. CF and DH are essentially vacant. I know that Hicks has all of the tools to be a fantastic outfielder and hitter. I've already stated that much on this website. I can tell just by watching Hicks play that he could be a great one. However, I am getting the impression from Stephen Drew advocates (yourself included) that they want the team improved RIGHT NOW, in 2014! All I am saying is that DH, CF, 3B, Catcher are also options and that SS isn't the only position. Hicks is potentially the future, but remember, he got sent down to AAA because he wasn't ready yet. If he is not ready in 2014, then CF would be an empty position that we can upgrade until Hicks etc.. are ready. DH and CF are both empty until some player proves otherwise. So I guess my question to you is, do you want to improve the team right now or are you just wanting to improve the team in positions where we do not have "future prospects" in the minors? Remember, they are just prospects and there is no guarantee that they will turn into quality MLB players. In that case, I can see your point for wanting to sign Drew, but how is the team going to compete for a playoff spot in 2014 if the Twins don't fill CF, 3B, and Catcher with bona fide players as well? I know Drew would help the team offensively, but signing him alone to improve the offense isn't going to make a big enough difference. If the Twins just sign Drew, but don't address the other positions, I'd rather they pass on Drew and try and find someone else in the next year or two. If they sign Drew, i'd like them to go all in and try and get a couple of more good bats as well.

I agree.. There's at least one out field position, DH, and Catcher where they could improve the offense, yet for some reason everyone is going crazy over Drew who's very expensive for what he brings to the table over Florimon IMO. I agree with you wholeheartedly. Drew hit .253 last year. Florimon only hit .221, but it was only his first year in the league. Drew hit 14HR's last year, Florimon hit 9. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that Florimon hits an extra 5HR's next year to match Drew's power. The one thing Drew does better than Florimon is get on base (consistent .300+ OBP throughout his career), but he's not a better SS than Florimon, nor does he have a higher ceiling. Not to mention that Drew is older, less durable, and much more expensive. 20-26x + a 2nd round draft pick to be exact. I'm not against upgrading the SS position. I was perfectly fine with JJ Hardy. However, I think there's other places the Twins could improve before SS. Also, we need to keep in mind that Rome wasn't built in a day. Everyone wants everything now. I would give Florimon one more year and if he doesn't show any improvement, then look a little more seriously about finding a replacement. I shouldn't say it's a fact that the Twins aren't going to make the playoffs next year because the games have yet to be played, but based on the team that is currently assembled, it is optimistic to think that they will. It's going to take a couple or a few more years until all of the young prospects are up and established.

1) Drew has a better track record for producing runs than Florimon, but a) Florimon has only played one year in the MLB Florimon is better defensively and has the tools to be a #2 SS in 2014 and beyond c) Drew costs 20-26 times as much as Florimon plus a 2nd round draft pick. A cost-benefit analysis determines that the law of diminishing returns is huge on this one. 2) The Twins better get drafting SS's then. 3a) Center field is open and so is DH. Cost benefit analysis determines that those are two places the Twins could improve their offense, yet fans want to go after a guy who's arguably a top 5 SS with a ceiling of #2 who's only played one year and in my opinion is a good value @ $500,000. 3b) Stephen Drew is not a better SS than Pedro Florimon and he costs 20-26x more + a 2nd round draft pick. He is better offensively, but his durability is questionable. His .253 AVG did not impress me last year, but the one thing I do like about Drew is that he consistently has had a +.300 OBP throughout his career. That's the one thing I'd definitely like about him if the Twins were to sign him. 4) The Twins signed Catcher Kurt Suzuki who's offense isn't anything to brag about, yet nobody says a peep. Thankfully, Pinto has shown some positive offensive signs so far, so I"m not overly concerned. 5) The Twins should sign Garza and Drew already so Twins fans can find something else to talk about.

I don't disagree with you about those guys improving the offense at all. And I would be quite pleased if signing those guys (in addition to the SP's the Twins already signed) resulted in a +.500 record and / or a chance at the playoffs. As much as I like Florimon, I would be fine if the Twins took an "all in" approach and replaced him as I am sick and tired of watching the Twins fight for last, just like every other fan. However, if the Twins don't take the all-in approach offensively, i'd rather Florimon be given a chance to improve his numbers from last season. As a side note, Plouffe and Parmelee have had plenty of opportunities already and they are still around. Replace those guys and then we'll talk about replacing Florimon.

I agree with you wholeheartedly. I'm happy the Twins signed starting pitchers, but I'm concerned about the offense just as much as everybody else. I don't know what the solution is because it seems like we are waiting on a bunch of the young guys to come up and take over. That would explain why nobody expects the Twins to go anywhere for at least a year or two.

Center field is wide open, so that would be a good place to start. What about 3rd base, when's the last time we had a bona fide 3rd baseman? Plouffe is not even close to as good of a defender as Florimon. Plouffe hits home runs, but if he's not hitting home runs, he can go. We don't have a DH, unless you do DH by committee. Parmelee, like Plouffe, is at the end of his rope. We don't have a good Catcher anymore. Suzuki doesn't bring much to the table offensively, yet there isn't a peep being said about him. The Twins could also sign one more starting pitcher considering Deduno might not be as healthy as we want him in 2014.. What about Garza? Florimon is the only positional player on the team who is within striking distance at being #2 in the MLB defensively at his position and he just came off his first full season in the MLB. Considering his price tag and the fact that the Twins aren't going anywhere next year, I think he's earned at least one more season to show some sort of improvement. I'd rather the Twins upgrade Center Field (empty), 3rd base (Plouffe is at the end of his rope), DH (empty), Catcher (Suzuki?), 1 more starting pitcher (Deduno's health is a ?) before SS. I think when you have a guy who has the tools to potentially be the #2 SS next year @ $500,000, you give him an opportunity to improve both this defense and his hitting. I was just fine with JJ Hardy as our SS. It's unfortunate that the FO didn't see him as a long term solution. The Twins are going through a transition so there are going to be some tough decisions. Do you sign someone or do you give X player a chance. Do you sign someone or do you put filler out there until x prospect is ready? There are a lot of tough decisions and I would prefer if the Twins didn't make too many knee jerk reactions. So far, I think they are doing a pretty good job this off season.

My point clearly went over yours and Mikes' heads. It's not about saving money or keeping the payroll as low as possible. It's about value, opportunity cost, and getting the most improvement for your dollar. For instance, at the start of the season, everyone was in agreement that the easiest way to improve the team was to sign FA SP's. That made complete sense, when doing a cost-benefit analysis. I placed signing starting pitchers at the top and signing Stephen Drew at (or near) the bottom of the priority list based on how much improvement the team will have compared with how much $ is spent. And based on how the Twins have been spending this off season, they are in complete agreement with my cost-benefit analysis and not yours.

No, that's not what I said. I said that when doing a cost benefit analysis between Florimon and Drew that the law of diminishing returns comes into play big time because you have to spend 20-26X plus give up a second round draft pick to get a negative return on defense and less than 2x return on offense. If you want my opinion on the draft pick, all you have to do is ask. I'm okay with giving up a second round draft pick if the price tag is lower. I just don't like the idea of signing Drew @ $10m + 2nd round draft pick over Florimon, who the Twins already have under contract for $500,000. As far as a potential Hardy trade goes, nowhere did I suggest giving up X player or X prospect in a trade. I merely think the Twins would be wise to at least give the Orioles a call and see what options are available instead of simply giving Drew what he wants without flipping over every other stone first. One thing nobody seems to consider very much is that Florimon has only played one full season in the MLB and that he may improve both defensively and offensively. This would add even more weight on the cost-benefit scale. As far as platooning Drew with Florimon. I'm really not against the idea to be honest. I have nothing against Drew and I think the two of them would do a fine job in 2014. I'm merely looking at it from a cost-benefit / business perspective. If the Twins are willing to spend the money, then that's great. But I have a feeling that Terry Ryan is thinking more like me and less like you on this issue. I said before that the Twins would be better off spending their $ in other area's where they would get more bang for their buck and so far they have done that (starting pitching), which doesn't surprise me at all. Hopefully they continue doing that and only sign Drew if all of their other options have run out (e.g. Garza is signed, teams are asking for too much in trade for X player) and they still have $ left to spend.