Steve Lein

Would definitely be HS pitchers. Shane Baz is the (pipe)dream, but there has been smoke on him. MN guy Carlson is probably next on the list you'd want that for but not that likely, either. There will be guys that fall. They can shoot for the guy they want, but that will be fluid as the picks roll in.

There is that risk, but it comes down to the Twins having the biggest pool to play with. As soon as I have my $$$ amount agreed at #1 I'm calling the guy I want to fall and telling him I will pay you $XXX amount at #35. That means every talk they have with another team has to meet that number from there on out. Lets say the Twins offer them $4MIL at #35. That's pick #12 money. In this case that team is the Pirates. They have just over $10MIL. If that player starts falling into the 15-20 range, then we're talking teams with a pool of only $8MIL or less. You think those teams are gonna pony up that price and blow half their budget in round 1? Remember, they LOSE that pool money if they don't sign the player.

If they save a bunch of money at #1 (lets say, $1.5MIL, or about how much it goes down to for the #4 pick), if you add what you've banked onto the slot for #35 you have as much money as the slot for pick #15.

Maybe I'm thinking of Max Fried for Allard, but Garrett's news just came out last week: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article154970919.html

DA 3:27 Any chance Minnesota goes Lewis #1 and uses extra money on Shane Baz at #35? Keith Law 3:28 I don't think so.

Last three are all casualties to Tommy John already in their careers.

Lot of steam on McKay... I could get behind him as a two-way guy but would also hope he's saving them money if that's their choice. I'd really like to see how Falvey and Levine rate him in comparison to say, Stephen Gonsalves. They sound pretty similar to me. Gonsalves on MLB.com: Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curve: 50 | Slider: 40 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55 "Gonsalves reached Double-A for the first time in 2016 and continued to baffle hitters, finishing among the Minor League's best in ERA and batting average against. He does so with a low-90s fastball coming from his 6-foot-5 frame that might still have a little more velocity to come. His changeup is his best secondary offering, an excellent sinking offspeed pitch. His curve continues to get better as he throws it more, and he still tinkers with a slider." McKay on MLB.com: Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 6 "McKay usually opens games on the mound by working with a 90-94 mph fastball that loses a couple ticks of velocity by the middle innings. He could add more velo and maintain it better if he focused on pitching full-time, and his fastball command is so good that his heater is effective in the upper 80s. McKay's curveball is a consistent plus pitch and he's working on refining a changeup that he hasn't needed much to this point in his career."

It's mainly the leg kick, but I think he repeats it really well. Have read a lot of reports that say that, and in that video you can also get a good idea of of it too. Lands his foot the same spot, leg kick goes to same spot... I don't think it's a huge concern at this point, like anybody else he's going to get a lot of coaching wherever he lands.

I do too. If Greene had a hammer I don't think there would be any question, but usually a top pick has one, or incredible confidence from scouts that they see one. I haven't been convinced Greene meets either of those conditions. Well, in a guy like Gore or Greene's case, how much are they going to improve their draft stock by going to college? Frankly, it can only get worse. So there is a risk of losing a lot of money as well.

It is a rarity in the history of the MLB draft, but if you’re looking for a high school pitcher to select #1 overall on Monday, your potential list likely includes just two names. You’ve already heard about the much hyped right-hander, but the left-hander in that conversation should not be ignored.His name is MacKenzie Gore out of the state of North Carolina, and he is arguably the more advanced of the two. So why isn’t he being talked about as much? Who Is He? Gore enters the draft out of Whiteville High School in his home state as the top prep lefty in the nation. It also has been quite a week for him before even considering his draft prospects on June 12th. First, he was named the Gatorade North Carolina and National Player of the Year. Then, a few days later he helped his team to the class 1A State Championship, pitching the first game of the three-game championship series. However, it wasn’t just his six shut-out innings that contributed to that 10-0 victory before they took home the trophy the next day. Listed around 6’2” and 180 pounds, Gore has been a steady climber on draft boards throughout the spring as he tacked on some velocity in his senior season. MLB.com lists him at number four on their top 50 along with some eye-popping numbers from his junior season. Matt Eddy from Baseball America compared him to some of the best left-handed prepsters ever drafted in the first round, demonstrating how he fits the mold due to his physical maturity and measurements. He is being considered in the top five of picks, so even though he’s committed to play at East Carolina University there’s no reason to doubt that he’ll sign a contract. Why The Twins Will Pick Him Gore rests on the advanced part of the spectrum for a high school pitcher, as he brings both fastball velocity and multiple secondary offerings that already provide plus potential. John Sickels of MinorLeagueBall.com cites his deep arsenal of advanced pitches for his age in a glowing scouting report. Though his mechanics are atypical as he employs a high leg kick in his motion (like, really high), there are no major concerns about working through any of the normal kinks due to his athleticism. Take a look for yourself in the video below (in case you don’t notice, the first hitter he strikes out is Hunter Greene). As far as his stuff goes, he employs a full arsenal of pitches with a fastball, slider, curve, and changeup. He uses all of them liberally and each grades out as at least above average. Depending on the report, his curveball or changeup will get plus marks along with his mid-90’s fastball. Sickels even mentions that due to his maturity and pitching acumen, he won’t need as much time in the minors as most high schoolers. He is also left-handed, so the fear of picking the first ever such player at number one isn’t a consideration Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have to worry about. I don’t think anyone in their positions would, but in their first crack at leading a draft room it would be a story played up in the media and remembered. There is also a final consideration, as discussed by Twins Daily’s Jeremy Nygaard earlier in the week. The Twins likely could save a good amount of money going with Gore at number one, opening numerous possibilities for deal-making at picks 35 and 37 if and when other top players fall. Why The Twins Will Not Pick Him There is always the injury risk with prep hurlers who throw 90+ MPH pitches as their bodies are still developing. While there are not glaring flaws with Gore’s mechanics and his athleticism projects a lower injury risk, it is still a significant hurdle to overcome. The last four high school left-handers to be taken first in the draft include Braxton Garrett, Kolby Allard, Brady Aiken, and Trey Ball. Allard and Aiken have both already undergone Tommy John surgeries, and now it appears Garrett will too. Trey Ball has avoided the knife, but has also only reached AA and has a career 4.61 ERA and 4.3 BB/G walk rate in the minors. It’s scary company to be in. There is also the issue of his advisor. While most of the perceptions brought up when the name Scott Boras is invoked are tied to the former regime led by Terry Ryan, many Twins fans do revile his mere presence. With the new front office this shouldn’t really be a concern (it wasn’t really one with Ryan, either) as Levine knows him quite well from his time in Texas and Boras praised the duos hiring last November—but he is an agent with a reputation. Any attempt at below-slot money at number one to make deals later may not go as well as they hope. Perhaps the most important reason why Gore would not be the choice at number one is that he isn’t number one on any pre-draft lists you might scour. The Twins have the choice of anyone they want, and it is hard to argue with the “best player available” strategy in such a position. This being their first year at the helm, the new front office may not want to take that risk with their first ever draft selection. One thing we do know about Derek Falvey is that he has a well-respected reputation in pitcher development. With the number one overall pick in his first draft as chief baseball officer, he has a great opportunity to make a good first impression for his legacy. It could just be that Gore’s combination of youth, stuff, projection, and maturity is the picture Falvey want to be on the canvas of his first draft choice. Maybe it even helps him leverage another top talent later in the draft (like pick 13 in Law’s latest mock). We will find out on Monday if that is indeed the case. Would you like Gore at the number one overall pick? Follow MacKenzie on Twitter, if you want. Previous Draft Profiles: Hunter Greene, SP/SS by Nick Nelson Brendan McKay, SP/1B by Cody Christie Royce Lewis, SS/OF by Nick Nelson Pavin Smith, 1B by Tom Froemming Kyle Wright, SP by Jeremy Nygaard My 10-round Mock Draft Click here to view the article

Wait for it...

Haha, I like your idea, but I don't see it happening for the other "whats the rush" reasons you point out.

Alex Wimmers and Tyler Jay went straight to Fort Myers. I would expect the same with Wright. Maybe Falvey likes AA for those types too (which I am an advocate for), we don't know yet.

Wright is probably the #1 guy on my board. The only other scenario I see is what Jeremy discussed the other day. Below slot high school arm (Gore) that lets them leverage another HS arm to them at 35 (Baz). I like both scenarios.

I'll always remember watching Kepler at Spring Training in 2012. He was playing with the Beloit roster that also had Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Kennys Vargas on it. Kepler was the best player on that team that week, and it wasn't particularly close (Here's an oppo-double from him back then). Hit line drives everywhere, flew around the bases. I was actually astonished he did not play in the Midwest League that season, though an injury may have played a part in that. He was the first (and maybe only) player where seeing him in person drastically changed my outlook on him for the better (and I already thought highly of him). You're selling him short, he's going to be a #3 hitter .

That's a lot of words to put in my mouth, but my answer would be an unequivocal no... My strategy is I don't think this team is worthy of being (big) buyers this year, but I also wouldn't be sellers if they're still in contention. Let if fall where it may if that is case as the summer rolls on and there are some minor moves that make sense in those terms.

Once the All-Star games are played, I think we'll start to see such things.

We all want to win the World Series, I get that. I also agree with your assessment of being a Twins fan. But you misinterpret those bolded points a little. They are not mutually exclusive. Going after the division or a wild-card is going after winning a world series. Ask the '87 Twins if they were the best team in baseball... This response sounds to me, that if we're keeping everything in place, you would rather give up than try. That's where you lose me.

I don't agree that the scouting reports going into the draft match for these players. Wright's are better, but that's not because of the "stuff" you're pointing out. Take a look at grades prognosticators give for the pitchers this year. If you only take those into account, Hunter Greene shouldn't even be in the top 10. Fellow high schooler's Mackenzie Gore and Shane Baz would blow him away... Gibson was a mature draftee. You essentially already knew what you were getting with him. That is why he was considered a top-10/15 pick despite not having a high ceiling before his injury. Wright's does have that ceiling despite those reports maybe reading similar. There should be no doubt on who is the better prospect of the two and is why Wright is under consideration for #1.

Of note in the video above, is there are two distinct different breaking balls being thrown. Turley confirms as much in this article on the start: https://www.milb.com/milb/news/minnesota-twins-nik-turley-erupts-for-career-high-15-strikeouts/c-234789166/t-185364810

I'm with some others. This conversation is moot until the Twins are out of contention. The Houston series was thought of as a harbinger of doom for many, but that was probably just one team being significantly better than the other. Just because that Astros team is the cream of the AL crop right now, doesn't mean you give up on the AL Central or Wild Card race. This will be much clearer when the deadline approaches, and the standings say more about who is a contender and who is a pretender. The American League doesn't have a single team more than six games out of the Wild Card (nobody is truly "out of it" yet). The National League has nine teams more than six games out of the WC berth.

He's probably a guy the Twins don't really know what they have with yet. I mean, his AA numbers are otherworldly, but he hadn't had the same type of success at AAA until last night. But this type of thing gets you noticed, no matter who you are. And look at this damn breaking ball:

In the minors on Tuesday there were a few shortstop prospects who collected hits in bunches, including a near-cycle, but they couldn’t quite match the effort of a starter called up to AAA earlier in the day. He did something not many pitchers could say they’ve done over the first three innings, along with setting a career high for K’s on the game. Bad weather in Florida also wreaked havoc on the Miracle’s attempt at a mid-week series.To find out who made the headlines on 2-1 night in the system on Tuesday, read on. TRANSACTIONS Nik Turley was assigned again to Rochester on Tuesday, made the start for the Red Wings and made more than a statement to stay in AAA for good this time, and maybe even a call-up to the Twins. To make roomon the roster, right-handed pitcher Ryan Eades was swapped back to AA. RED WINGS REPORT Scranton Wilkes-Barre 1, Rochester 8 Box Score The Red Wings offense exploded for multiple runs in each of the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings in this one to put the RailRiders away. But the story wasn’t that late offensive explosion to secure the victory. The story was starter Nik Turley whose name has appeared quite frequently in these reports this season, but even he hadn’t done something like this. What you ask? How about recording his first ten outs of the game via the strikeout. He did punch out fourteen in a seven inning start for Chattanooga on April 25th, but would eclipse that number in six innings in this one, with fifteen K’s total. He did allow four hits (including two doubles) and two walks on the game, but whenever any trouble materialized he simply shrugged it off and overpowered the next hitter(s). Mitch Garver started that scoring for Rochester with his fourth home run of the season, a three-run shot in the sixth. Zack Granite added an RBI single in the three-run seventh inning that also included three errors, and John Ryan Murphy added an RBI double in the two-run eighth to account for most of that late offense. Granite finished 3-5 with two runs scored. Out of the bullpen, Drew Rucinski pitched two perfect innings including one strikeout, while Michael Tonkin allowed a run on two hits and a walk in the ninth to close out the game. He also struck out one. CHATTANOOGA CHATTER Jackson 4, Chattanooga 2 (14 innings) Box Score The Lookouts were taken into extra innings in this one, as the pitching staffs of both teams limited the chances throughout. Matt Tracy made the start for Chattanooga and went the first six innings. He gave up a two-run home run in the fourth that made the score 2-1 in favor of the Generals, but that was it. He allowed five hits and two walks along with five strikeouts on the game. Chattanooga scored single runs in the third and fifth innings thanks to the bat of Nick Gordon, who brought in the run with a single in both frames. The Lookouts left the bases loaded in that fifth inning, and with the game tied the bullpens took over. Todd Van Steensel, Luke Bard and Mason Melotakis all pitched two scoreless frames for the home team, extending into the extra frames. Van Steensel was perfect in the seventh and eighth. Bard allowed two hits but struck out three in the ninth and tenth. Melotakis walked one and struck out three in the next two innings. Jackson’s bullpen pitched nine scoreless innings, combining to allow just five hits and four walks, while striking out fourteen to keep Chattanooga from walking this one off. Nick Anderson came on in the thirteenth frame and kept the game tied, but ran into trouble that spelled doom for the Lookouts in the fourteenth. Three singles, a walk, and a sac fly plated two runs for 4-2 Jackson lead. Ryan Walker led off the bottom of the inning with a walk and Gordon reached base as the tying run with an infield single before an out was recorded, but a double-play ball and ground out shut the door on the extended game. Gordon (4-6, 2 RBI, BB), Edgar Corcino (3-7), and Walker (2-5, R, 2B, BB) accounted for nine of the Lookouts eleven hits on the game. The rest of the team was 2-33 with twelve of their sixteen total strikeouts. They were just 2-14 with runners in scoring position and left thirteen men on base. MIRACLE MATTERS Cancelled – Rain. After their game was postponed due to rain yesterday, the weather persisted in Palm Beach and both games today were cancelled. Per a press release from the Miracle, the games will not be made up. Lewis Thorpe had started the game yesterday and his team was down 2-0 in the bottom of the fourth due to a couple of unearned runs when it was postponed. No stats from that game will count. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 7, Clinton 2 Box Score Cedar Rapids notched runs in four of the first five innings in this one, jumping out to a 5-0 lead that would be more than enough offense for their pitching staff. Lewin Diaz put them up 1-0 with an RBI double in the first inning, keeping his name at the top of the leaderboard for extra-base hits on the season with twenty-eight (21 2B, 3B, 7 HR). They scored two in the third thanks to an RBI triple from Jermaine Palacios and an RBI single from Jaylin Davis. In the fourth, after his first double of the season and advancing to third on a fielder's choice, Hank Morrison raced home on a wild pitch before Palacios clubbed his eighth home run to make it 5-0. The LumberKings were held scoreless through the sixth inning thanks to the effort of Kernels starter Tyler Wells. In the high quality start, he allowed just two singles to the opposing offense while striking out seven. Of his 83 pitches, 56 went for strikes including eight swing-and-misses. He struck out the side in the fifth inning. He lowered his ERA to 2.05 on the season along with picking up his third win. The Kernels tacked on two more runs in the eighth thanks to a Caleb Hamilton double, and he scored on a wild pitch. In relief of Wells, Max Cordy allowed a run on a walk that was followed by an RBI double in the seventh, but struck out two in his inning. Colton Davis pitched a scoreless eight, striking out one. Patrick McGuff came on to finish the game, and gave up a run on a walk and a hit for the final score of 7-2. Palacios finished a double short of the cycle with a 3-5 night and scored three runs in addition to his two RBI. Davis was the only other player with multiple hits and also drove in two. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Nik Turley, Rochester Red Wings (W, 6 IP, 4 H’s, 2 BB’s, 15 K’s) Hitter of the Day – Jermaine Palacios, Cedar Rapids Kernels (3-5, 3 R’s, 3B, HR, 2 RBI) WEDNESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Scranton Wilkes-Barre @ Rochester (11:35AM CST) – LHP David Hurlbut (3-3, 3.35 ERA) Jackson @ Chattanooga (10:15AM CST) – RHP Felix Jorge (5-1, 3.39 ERA) Tampa @ Fort Myers (6:05PM CST) – RHP Brady Anderson (2-1, 4.01 ERA) Cedar Rapids @ Clinton (6:30PM CST) – RHP Sean Poppen (4-1, 2.12 ERA) Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Tuesday’s games! Click here to view the article