Boone

The upper-levels of the Twins minor league system is stocked with relief pitchers performing at a high level. Here is a quick rundown: Michael Tonkin (AAA, 24)- Tonkin has been arguably the best reliever in the Twins system since the start of 2012. This year in AAA, Tonkin has a 3.08 ERA—nothing special—but his K and BB numbers are excellent: 26 K’s to just four BB’s in 26.1 innings. He’s been even better in this department since the start of June: 18 K’s to one BB in 18.1 IP. Tonkin pitched briefly in the majors both this season and last, where he struggled slightly: in 22.2 IP, he has an ERA of 3.57 to go along with 18 K’s and nine BB’s. AJ Achter (AAA, 25)- This is a guy who has drawn plenty of headlines this year, with good reason. He was promoted to Rochester after 6.2 innings in New Britain, and has since posted a 1.74 ERA in 46.2 IP. His peripherals aren’t staggering—42 K’s and 14 BB’s (8.1 K/9, 3.0 K/BB)—but they are good. It is worth noting, however, that Achter was more dominant early in the season: 24 K: four BB in 25.1 IP in April and May, against 18 K: ten BB in 21.1 IP since the end of May. Ryan Pressly (AAA, 25)- After a poor showing for the Twins in 2013, Pressly might be a bit of a surprise on this list. His overall numbers very good, but not spectacular: 2.88 ERA, 57 K: 19 BB (3.0 K/BB) in 56.1 innings (9.1 K/9). However, he struggled in April and has been excellent since the start of May. In 45 IP since the beginning of May, he has 47 K (9.4 K/9), 9 BB (5.2 K/BB) and a 2.40 ERA. It appears as if the time he spent in the majors led to some major improvement for Pressly, who was never particularly good in the minors. In fact, Pressly is having his best minor league season by far, despite pitching in AAA for the first time. Pressly became a full time reliever in 2012 while pitching in AA and posted just 21 K:10 BB in 27.2 IP. In other words, he’s striking out two more batters per inning while posting a similar BB rate this year. Deolis Guerra (AAA, 25)- Best known for being the only piece from the Johan Santana trade remaining in the Twins system, Guerra missed almost all of 2012 as a result of Tommy John surgery. Strikeouts have never been a problem for Guerra, and that trend has continued this year, as he has struck out 33 in 34.2 IP this year. Walks, however, have been a problem. He has improved slightly this year, walking 11 batters in 34.2 innings (a respectable 2.9 BB/9) after posting 21 BB in 57.1 IP in 2012 (3.3 BB/9); his BB rate has dropped from 8.6% to 7.6%. Guerra is another guy who has been better since the calendar flipped to May: 27 K 8 BB in 26.2 IP. Lester Oliveros (AAA, 26)- another guy who missed almost all of 2013 due to Tommy John surgery. Oliveros started the year in New Britain, where he posted a 0.89 ERA and 36 Ks in 30.1 IP (10.7 K/9); he did, however, walk 14 (4.2 BB/9, 2.57 K:BB). Since his promotion to AAA, Oliveros has eight K, two BB, in 7.1 IP (ERA of 4.91). Furthermore, he has been at his best since the start of June, posting 19 K to just three BB in only 14.2 IP across two levels (but an ERA of 3.07). Ryan O’Rouke (AA, 26)- this guy could probably be a lefty specialist for the Twins right now. Lefties, in thirty six plate appearances against him, have just 3 BB and 25 K. You read that right, 25 strikeouts. That’s 18.75 K/9—he’s striking out the opposing batter in over 60% of plate appearances. He’s also allowed just three hits to lefties: opposing lefty batters are hitting .079/.146/.105 (.252) off him. That’s actually absurd. His dominance of lefties isn’t a new thing: he had 22 K: three BB against lefties last year in 56 plate appearanes, good for a strike out in 40% of plate appearances (Aroldis Chapman struck out opposing hitters in about 43% of plate appearances in 2012 and 2013, which equated to a 15.5 K/9 during that span). What it Means Going Forward I think that most of these players could compete for bullpen positions next spring, if not earlier: they are posting great numbers at upper levels of the minors and are fairly young. Of course relief pitchers don’t make many “Top 100 Prospect Lists,” especially when they’re in their mid-20s. But these players—plus 2014 2nd round pick Nick Burdi—could form the core of a strong—and cheap—bullpen for the next 5 years.

Here are three Minnesota Twins prospects (all are 1.7 years younger than the average player in their respective leagues, according to Baseball Reference) who, at first glance, appear to be struggling so far in 2014. A closer examination, however, tells a different story: Taylor Rogers (AA SP) 32.2 IP in 8 GS The bad: 5.36 ERA 1.53 WHIP [*]Why he’s better than his numbers: The obvious indicator is his 3.50 FIP, almost 2 full runs lower than his ERA; in fact, this difference is the highest in the Eastern League amongst qualified pitchers. Let’s take a closer look: Rogers is striking out 8.66 per 9 innings (21.3% of plate appearances) and walking just 2.27 per 9 (5.6% of PA), good for a stellar 3.82 K/BB, which ranks him 8th in the Eastern League amongst qualified pitchers. This is a huge step forward from a season ago, when Rogers posted just 5.72 K/9 (15.7%) with a 2.59 K/BB. Furthermore, Rogers continues to keep the ball on the ground, posting an excellent 1.61 GO/AO ratio. The cause of Rogers’ struggles is two-fold: an extremely high BABIP and a poor strand-rate. Rogers has a .377 BABIP, which is the worst in the EL amongst qualified pitchers, and his strand rate of 61.5% is the 8th worst amongst qualified pitchers. How optimistic should we be? Very. Although I wouldn’t expect Rogers to continue to strike out close to a batter per inning, if he continues to induce ground balls at a high rate and limit walks—which I expect him to do—he should have a solid year. And if his increased strikeout rate is here to stay—even if it settles around 7 K/9—then Rogers could become a very intriguing prospect. If his BABIP and strand rate settle down soon, Rogers should merit a mid-season call-up to AAA. Adrian Salcedo (AA RP) 22 IP in 15 relief appearances for New Britain The bad: 7.77 ERA 1.86 WHIP [*]Why he’s better than his numbers: Similar to Rogers, Salcedo’s FIP is an immediate indicator of bad luck; he has a FIP of 2.43 for the season, over 5 runs lower than his ERA (this is a staggering figure, as the next highest difference between ERA and FIP for an Eastern League pitcher with at least 20 IP is 3.42, compared to Salcedo’s 5.34). Let’s take a closer look at Salcedo’s numbers: Salcedo is striking out a whopping 12.27 batters per 9 innings (27.5% of PAs) and is walking just 3.27 (7.3%), good for an excellent 3.75 K/BB ratio. Although he is walking more batters than a year ago, the large increase in strikeouts (up from 8.33 K/9) has led to a slight improvement in his K/BB ratio (up from 3.6 last season). Furthermore, Salcedo has posted an excellent 2.08 GO/AO ratio, even better than the 1.68 GO/AO from a year ago. The cause of Salcedo’s struggles, similar to those of Rogers, is a high BABIP and a lower strand-rate. Salcedo’s BABIP of .464 is the highest in the EL amongst pitchers with at least 20 IP (the next closest is just .400) and his strand rate is just 51.7%, meaning roughly half of all batters that reach base score; this is the 4th worst rate in the Eastern League amongst pitchers with 20 IP. How optimistic should we be? Very. Salcedo is establishing himself as a high-K, low-BB, ground-ball inducing relief pitcher. What more can you ask for? Once his BABIP comes back to Earth, which it will, his strand-rate should increase and his ERA will drop. I expect Salcedo to be another candidate for a mid-season call-up to AAA. It is worth noting that Salcedo was a popular sleeper prospect heading into the 2012 season before injuries limited him to just 30 IP that year. Max Kepler (A+ OF/1B) 35 games (27 at CF) for Fort Myers The bad: .215/.319/.347 for an OPS of .666 Why he’s better than his numbers: Kepler has displayed excellent plate discipline, striking out in just 13.5% of his plate appearances (down from 16.3% last year) and walking in 10.6%, which is the highest rate of his career. The result is a BB/K ratio of .79, which is the 13th best in the league, and a significant improvement from a solid BB/K ratio of .56 from last season. The main cause of Kepler’s struggles is his .236 BABIP, which is the 6th lowest amongst qualified starters. How optimistic should we be? I would be slightly less optimistic about Kepler than Rogers and Salcedo. Yes, his BABIP is incredibly low and should rise. Although this figure is certainly a result of bad luck and therefore should be expected to rise, it could also be a result of some underlying problems for Kepler. First and foremost, it is similar to the .254 BABIP of a year ago. Secondly, his ISO of .130 is much lower than his ISO of .189 from last year, which could indicate that he simply isn’t hitting the ball very hard. On the other hand, the Florida State League is notoriously a pitcher-friendly league, and Kepler’s ISO is actually much better (24% better, to be exact) than the league average of .105. In fact, only one player in the league has a higher ISO and BB/K ratio than Kepler. I’m very high on Kepler—he presents a rare combination of plate discipline, power, and athleticism—but I think a full year in A+ would be good for him.

Shortstop appears to be the weakest position in the Twins organization. Danny Santana is the closest legitimate SS prospect to the majors. But with a .691 OPS this season and 29 errors already (Alexei Ramirez leads all shortstops with 21), does Santana have a legitimate chance to be a franchise shortstop? A closer look gives reasons for optimism.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Hitting Here are Santana’s numbers the last 3 seasons: [TABLE=width: 433] Year PA Level BB% K% BB/K ISO OPS 2011 409 A 6.1 24 0.26 0.126 0.676 2012 547 A+ 5.3 14.1 0.38 0.124 0.739 2013 446 AA 3.9 16.3 0.24 0.086 0.691 [/TABLE] Santana took a huge step forward in 2012, dropping his K rate significantly (leading to a jump in his BB/K ratio) which allowed him to increase his OPS by 60 points and raise his average from .249 to .286. He also maintained solid power for a SS despite moving to the Florida State League. However, Santana has regressed this season. He has kept his Ks down, allowing him to maintain his .286 batting average, but his walks have dropped to a minuscule level and his power has disappeared. As a result, his BB/K ratio and OPS have returned to 2011 levels. That being said, Santana has progressed throughout the season, increasing his walks each month (2 in April, 3 in May, 4 in June, 9 in July). In fact, his 9 walks so far in July are equal to the amount as he had in the first 3 seasons of the month combined. It turns out that Santana is no stranger to mid-season improvements in the month of July. Check out these splits: [TABLE=width: 395] Split PA Level BB% K% BB/K April-June 2011 258 A 5.0% 22.5% 0.224 Post- July 2011 151 A 7.9% 19.9% 0.400 April-June 2012 299 A+ 4.7% 16.7% 0.280 Post-July 2012 250 A+ 6.0% 11.2% 0.536 April-June 2013 335 AA 2.7% 15.2% 0.176 Post-July 2013 166 AA 6.0% 18.1% 0.300 [/TABLE] This is rather astonishing. In each of the past 3 seasons, Santana has made a significant improvement in his BB/K ratio starting in July. While his month of July might prove to be an aberration, due to this pattern the past 2 seasons I think it represents a legitimate progression in his plate discipline. If that is the case, 2012 could actually represent a step forward for Santana and he should be ready for AAA at the start of next season. Basestealing Danny Santana has great speed, but he has always struggled stealing bases. In fact, between 2010 and 2012, Santana never posted as SB% higher than 65%, and it dropped every year. However, Santana has made a big step forward in his basestealing this season: [TABLE=width: 256] Year SB CS SB% 2010 15 8 65% 2011 24 15 62% 2012 17 11 61% 2013 23 9 72% [/TABLE] So when did Santana turn a corner stealing bases? The answer, ironically, appears to be during July of 2012. Take a look: [TABLE=width: 335] Split SB CS SB% SB/162G 2011 24 15 62% 37 April-June 2012 9 7 56% 21 Post-July 2012 8 3 73% 24 2013 23 9 72% 33 July 2012-present 31 12 72% 30 [/TABLE] Over the past year or so, Santana has looked like a 30SB 70+% guy. Over the past 3 years, just 8 SS have done that even once. And in case you’re wondering, Santana has continued that “every year I improve in July thing”: 9-10 SB in 24 games (68SB/162G). Fielding However, defense might be the most important factor for Santana going forward; as jdotmcmahon pointed out a few days ago, great defense alone has made Florimon a valuable player (http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...Pedro-Florimon). Santana has the speed and arm necessary to play short, but he has always been error prone: [TABLE=width: 172] Year G E FLD% 2011 78 27 0.924 2012 85 18 0.95 2013 107 29 0.944 [/TABLE] Errors and fielding percentage don’t tell the whole story, but it’s the best we have for minor league players. And as it turns out, Santana’s best fielding percentage of 95% would make him the worst shortstop in all of baseball. To make matters worse, Santana’s fielding percentage has dropped this season so much so that many are questioning whether or not he can stick at short. However, Santana’s poor fielding numbers this season are the result of a dreadful start to the year: [TABLE=width: 152] Split E FLD% Games 1-43 17 0.919 Games 44-107 12 0.961 [/TABLE] Disclaimer: the FLD% is based off of Santana season’s average of 4.86 chances per game. If we look at the Santana’s past 53 games (which accounts for 57% of his games at SS), he has improved his FLD% from last year’s .950 to .961. Once again, a step in the right direction. More importantly, Santana was recently named by Baseball America as the best defensive shortstop in AA. Many people on Twins Daily, including myself, have doubted whether or not he deserved such recognition. However, what we should take away from this is that BA believes Santana should be able to stick at shortstop in the majors. This praise, combined with Santana’s improving fielding percentage, makes me optimistic that he can be an above-average defensive shortstop. Conclusion Santana’s low K-rate should allow him to consistently hit in the .280-.285 range, which, combined with his basestealing, would be great for a SS. However, due to his lack of power (which has taken a turn for the worse this season), Santana will have to draw walks in order to post a quality OPS. He has increased his BB-rate during the second half of each of the last three seasons. If he can translate that success to the start of next year and continue to build on it, Santana could establish himself as a solid hitting SS at the major league level. Although Santana’s season numbers for 2013 are discouraging, he has shown signs of progression. Combined with Santana’s history of mid-season improvement, there is reason for optimism. If Santana can continue to progress as a hitter, fielder, and basestealer, he should be ready for AAA come next April, and might be starting on Opening Day in 2015, when he’ll be 24 years old all year. That will give Santana the chance to establish himself as the Twins’ regular shortstop, although several other prospects could come nipping at his heels in the near future (Goodrum, Polanco, Levi Michael, Mejia, and a potential 2014 1st round pick).