Boone

Before we all go assigning values to the Twins’ trade chips based off of how good we think they are, it is important to remember that, like most things, the value of players at the trade deadline is determined by the market. In short, a market is composed of supply, which is made up of sellers, and demand, which is made up of buyers. Buyers If the trade deadline were tomorrow, I believe there would be 16 teams considered buyers. Of course there are the 6 division leaders (Boston, Detroit, Oakland, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Arizona). There are also 10 teams chasing: Tampa Bay (4.5 GB in div., WC lead) Baltimore (5.5 GB in div, 1 in WC) New York Yankees (6 GB in div., 1.5 in WC) Cleveland (2.5 GB in div., 3.5 in WC) Texas (1 GB in div., WC lead) Washington (6 GB in div., 5 GB in WC) Pittsburgh (1 GB in NL div., WC lead) Cincinnati (5 GB in div., 4 GB in WC) LA Dodgers (2.5 GB in div., 5.5 GB in WC) Colorado (4.5 GB in div., 7.5 GB in WC) Sellers If the trade deadline were tomorrow, I believe there would be 8 teams considered definite sellers. Minnesota (13 GB in div., 14 GB in WC) Chicago White Sox (13.5 GB in div., 14.5 GB in WC) Seattle (13 GB in div., 11.5 GB in WC) Houston (20.5 GB in div., 19 GB in WC) NY Mets (11 GB in div., 10 GB in WC) Miami (18 GB in div., 17 GB in WC) Chicago Cubs (15 GB in div., 10 GB in WC) Milwaukee (19.5 GB in div., 14.5 GB in WC) Wait and See These are the teams that could go either way, or not make any moves at all. Their decisions could have a major impact on the market. KC- Haven’t competed for a playoff spot in a long time. Traded Myers for Shields in off-season. AL Central’s best record in June. Just 7 games behind in AL Central but are 4 games under .500. Lean buy Philadelphia- Expected to sell, but just 7 games back in NL East, 6 in WC. Howard’s injury out complicates matters. They’ve won 7 of their last 10 lean buy San Francisco (6.5 GB in div., 9.5 GB in WC)- Still in the division race, but have lost 7 of their last 10 and their rotation isn’t the same with Cain struggling. Hard to see a team that has won 2 of the last 3 WS selling but if they don’t turn things around soon they might have too. Lean buy San Diego- 8.5 games back in NL West, 9.5 back in NL WC. 1-9 in last 10 pretty much all you need to know. Lean sell Toronto- Out of contention, but their big off season might convince them to sit pat rather than sell. Lean sell LA Angels- Pretty much out of contention, but all those big contracts the last few off-seasons might convince them to not sell. Lean sell Comparison to Previous Years All of the previous information doesn’t mean much without context. By my estimation, over the past 3 years there have been an average of 13 buyers (15 in 2012, 11 in 2011, 13 in 2010) and 10 sellers (9 in 2012, 13 in 2011, and 8 in 2010) per year, which is a ratio of 1.3 buyers to sellers. This year appears to be more buyer heavy. If the 6 teams in the “Wait and See” category aren’t active, than the buyer to seller ratio could be as high as 2 (16 buyers, 8 sellers). One significant difference this season to the previous 3 is how close the divisional races are. Before today’s games, there were 19 teams 7 games or fewer behind the division leaders. As of 7/12 in the previous 3 seasons, there was an average of just 15.67 (16 in 2012, 16 in 2011, 15 in 2010). In my opinion, close divisional race will bring about more deadline deals than close wildcard races because a teams will feel more pressure to make a trade to match their competitors. Meaning for the Minnesota Twins This season is shaping up to have more buyers compared to sellers than the past 3 seasons—more demand compared to supply. Generally speaking, this should increase the price of players being traded at the deadline. This does not necessarily mean that the Twins will get more in return for their players than they would have in previous seasons—that is dependent on the market for the particular positions—but it is generally good news.

Before we all go assigning values to the Twins’ trade chips based off of how good we think they are, it is important to remember that, like most things, the value of players at the trade deadline is determined by the market. In short, a market is composed of supply, which is made up of sellers, and demand, which is made up of buyers. Buyers If the trade deadline were tomorrow, I believe there would be 16 teams considered buyers. Of course there are the 6 division leaders (Boston, Detroit, Oakland, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Arizona). There are also 10 teams chasing: Tampa Bay (4.5 GB in div., WC lead) Baltimore (5.5 GB in div, 1 in WC) New York Yankees (6 GB in div., 1.5 in WC) Cleveland (2.5 GB in div., 3.5 in WC) Texas (1 GB in div., WC lead) Washington (6 GB in div., 5 GB in WC) Pittsburgh (1 GB in NL div., WC lead) Cincinnati (5 GB in div., 4 GB in WC) LA Dodgers (2.5 GB in div., 5.5 GB in WC) Colorado (4.5 GB in div., 7.5 GB in WC) Sellers If the trade deadline were tomorrow, I believe there would be 8 teams considered definite sellers. Minnesota (13 GB in div., 14 GB in WC) Chicago White Sox (13.5 GB in div., 14.5 GB in WC) Seattle (13 GB in div., 11.5 GB in WC) Houston (20.5 GB in div., 19 GB in WC) NY Mets (11 GB in div., 10 GB in WC) Miami (18 GB in div., 17 GB in WC) Chicago Cubs (15 GB in div., 10 GB in WC) Milwaukee (19.5 GB in div., 14.5 GB in WC) Wait and See These are the teams that could go either way, or not make any moves at all. Their decisions could have a major impact on the market. KC- Haven’t competed for a playoff spot in a long time. Traded Myers for Shields in off-season. AL Central’s best record in June. Just 7 games behind in AL Central but are 4 games under .500. Lean buy Philadelphia- Expected to sell, but just 7 games back in NL East, 6 in WC. Howard’s injury out complicates matters. They’ve won 7 of their last 10 lean buy San Francisco (6.5 GB in div., 9.5 GB in WC)- Still in the division race, but have lost 7 of their last 10 and their rotation isn’t the same with Cain struggling. Hard to see a team that has won 2 of the last 3 WS selling but if they don’t turn things around soon they might have too. Lean buy San Diego- 8.5 games back in NL West, 9.5 back in NL WC. 1-9 in last 10 pretty much all you need to know. Lean sell Toronto- Out of contention, but their big off season might convince them to sit pat rather than sell. Lean sell LA Angels- Pretty much out of contention, but all those big contracts the last few off-seasons might convince them to not sell. Lean sell Comparison to Previous Years All of the previous information doesn’t mean much without context. By my estimation, over the past 3 years there have been an average of 13 buyers (15 in 2012, 11 in 2011, 13 in 2010) and 10 sellers (9 in 2012, 13 in 2011, and 8 in 2010) per year, which is a ratio of 1.3 buyers to sellers. This year appears to be more buyer heavy. If the 6 teams in the “Wait and See” category aren’t active, than the buyer to seller ratio could be as high as 2 (16 buyers, 8 sellers). One significant difference this season to the previous 3 is how close the divisional races are. Before today’s games, there were 19 teams 7 games or fewer behind the division leaders. As of 7/12 in the previous 3 seasons, there was an average of just 15.67 (16 in 2012, 16 in 2011, 15 in 2010). In my opinion, close divisional race will bring about more deadline deals than close wildcard races because a teams will feel more pressure to make a trade to match their competitors. Meaning for the Minnesota Twins This season is shaping up to have more buyers compared to sellers than the past 3 seasons—more demand compared to supply. Generally speaking, this should increase the price of players being traded at the deadline. This does not necessarily mean that the Twins will get more in return for their players than they would have in previous seasons—that is dependent on the market for the particular positions—but it is generally good news.

I went to see the final game of the Rock Cats’s series in Portland on Monday. Because I was only watching one game, didn’t see BP or fielding drills, and am not a professional scout I am not making any conclusions. My purpose was more to provide details that cannot be found in a boxscore as well as a very modest scouting report. I focused on Sano, Rosario, and Pinto. Unfortunately Danny Santana wasn’t in the lineup, as I was hoping to get a look at him playing shortstop. Hitting Sano 1st AB: Struckout swinging I thought he checked his swing on the 3rd strike. He had some words for the ump, and the 3rd base coach (manager?) was ejected arguing the call [*]2nd AB: Flyout Swung at first pitch, pretty weak fly ball [*]3rd AB: Flyout Sano hit a routine fly ball to right center. I would have liked to have seen him go the other way (runner on 2nd, no outs), but it was a good pitch to hit. If he had hit it hard it probably would have gone a long way and I wouldn’t be complaining [*]4th AB: Flyout Skied a flyball to left [*]Overall impression Was generally pretty aggressive early in at bats against fastballs, but couldn’t seem to square one up. It was good to see that he has a pretty controlled swing, as opposed to an all out, swing from the heels (like Fielder or Harper). Rosario: First AB: Struck out swinging He was fooled by a breaking pitch for strike 3, and swung off of his front foot He thought strike 2 was low [*]2nd AB: Result: BB Took a few close pitches for balls, including ball 4, which was the breaking pitch that fooled him in his first AB [*]3rd AB: Struck out swinging Took a few close pitches early in the AB to get the count in his favor and he fouled off a good pitch with 2 strikes, but he was fooled by the breaking ball again. He struck out swinging on a pitch in the dirt [*]4th AB: E6 Swung at first pitch and hit the ball sharply just to the shortstop’s left. The ball skipped once off the dirt and glanced off the shortstop’s glove into centerfield. Ruled an error. It would have been a really nice play. Might have been ruled a hit if the Rockcat’s had been at home [*]Overall impression: Was generally quite patient early in at bats and often worked the count into his favor. The one ball he put in play was hit quite sharply. Seemed to have trouble picking up breaking balls. Pinto 2nd AB: just missed a fastball. He was clearly frustrated with himself on way back to dugout 3rd AB: doubled on a hard hit line drive to left center. I was surprised at how well he ran Fielding Sano No groundballs were hit near him. Caught two popups that he barely had to move for. He did use both hands, which I liked to see. Overall impression: Wasn’t a whole lot to see here as he was never even remotely tested. I won’t pretend to know whether or not he is going to outgrow 3rd base, but he hasn’t yet. Rosario Caught a pop up in the first, barely had to move. Caught the ball with one hand, with his glove at his shoulder rather than over his head. Made an easy play on a routine bouncing ball in the fourth. Was very casual making the play Made a nice play on a hard hit ground ball in the 7th. Ranged a few steps to his right and made a sort of sliding stop (fielded cleanly). He then popped up quickly and made a relatively routine throw to first. Made a great catch on a weak line drive in the 7th that seemed destined to drop into shallow right. His route wasn’t perfect, but he recovered well and made a great leaping catch while running backwards and to his left. Displayed really good athleticism. With runners on 1st and 2nd and the Rockcats up 2 in the bottom of the 9th, there was a hard hit ground ball up the middle. The runner on second scored and the other went first to third. I would have liked to see Rosario lay out to try and stop the ball from reaching the outfield. He probably couldn’t have gotten there but I would have liked it anyways Overall impression: has a sort of lazy flair to his game that he displayed on the pop up in the first and grounder in the 4th. I also found it interesting that Rosario didn’t creep before the pitch; he went straight from a relaxed position to a ready position. Other notes Sano is going to be a fan favorite. He threw balls into the stands whenever he got the chance, once from the pitcher’s mound. The kids picked up on this pretty quickly and went crazy calling “hey 24” every time he got the ball. That was good to see. Daniel Ortiz hit a homerun right down the rightfield line (330 feet at the foul pole). It was more of a line drive than a fly ball but it still cleared the 15 foot high wall.

I went to see the final game of the Rock Cats’s series in Portland on Monday. Because I was only watching one game, didn’t see BP or fielding drills, and am not a professional scout I am not making any conclusions. My purpose was more to provide details that cannot be found in a boxscore as well as a very modest scouting report. I focused on Sano, Rosario, and Pinto. Unfortunately Danny Santana wasn’t in the lineup, as I was hoping to get a look at him playing shortstop. Hitting Sano 1st AB: Struckout swinging I thought he checked his swing on the 3rd strike. He had some words for the ump, and the 3rd base coach (manager?) was ejected arguing the call [*]2nd AB: Flyout Swung at first pitch, pretty weak fly ball [*]3rd AB: Flyout Sano hit a routine fly ball to right center. I would have liked to have seen him go the other way (runner on 2nd, no outs), but it was a good pitch to hit. If he had hit it hard it probably would have gone a long way and I wouldn’t be complaining [*]4th AB: Flyout Skied a flyball to left [*]Overall impression Was generally pretty aggressive early in at bats against fastballs, but couldn’t seem to square one up. It was good to see that he has a pretty controlled swing, as opposed to an all out, swing from the heels (like Fielder or Harper). Rosario: First AB: Struck out swinging He was fooled by a breaking pitch for strike 3, and swung off of his front foot He thought strike 2 was low [*]2nd AB: Result: BB Took a few close pitches for balls, including ball 4, which was the breaking pitch that fooled him in his first AB [*]3rd AB: Struck out swinging Took a few close pitches early in the AB to get the count in his favor and he fouled off a good pitch with 2 strikes, but he was fooled by the breaking ball again. He struck out swinging on a pitch in the dirt [*]4th AB: E6 Swung at first pitch and hit the ball sharply just to the shortstop’s left. The ball skipped once off the dirt and glanced off the shortstop’s glove into centerfield. Ruled an error. It would have been a really nice play. Might have been ruled a hit if the Rockcat’s had been at home [*]Overall impression: Was generally quite patient early in at bats and often worked the count into his favor. The one ball he put in play was hit quite sharply. Seemed to have trouble picking up breaking balls. Pinto 2nd AB: just missed a fastball. He was clearly frustrated with himself on way back to dugout 3rd AB: doubled on a hard hit line drive to left center. I was surprised at how well he ran Fielding Sano No groundballs were hit near him. Caught two popups that he barely had to move for. He did use both hands, which I liked to see. Overall impression: Wasn’t a whole lot to see here as he was never even remotely tested. I won’t pretend to know whether or not he is going to outgrow 3rd base, but he hasn’t yet. Rosario Caught a pop up in the first, barely had to move. Caught the ball with one hand, with his glove at his shoulder rather than over his head. Made an easy play on a routine bouncing ball in the fourth. Was very casual making the play Made a nice play on a hard hit ground ball in the 7th. Ranged a few steps to his right and made a sort of sliding stop (fielded cleanly). He then popped up quickly and made a relatively routine throw to first. Made a great catch on a weak line drive in the 7th that seemed destined to drop into shallow right. His route wasn’t perfect, but he recovered well and made a great leaping catch while running backwards and to his left. Displayed really good athleticism. With runners on 1st and 2nd and the Rockcats up 2 in the bottom of the 9th, there was a hard hit ground ball up the middle. The runner on second scored and the other went first to third. I would have liked to see Rosario lay out to try and stop the ball from reaching the outfield. He probably couldn’t have gotten there but I would have liked it anyways Overall impression: has a sort of lazy flair to his game that he displayed on the pop up in the first and grounder in the 4th. I also found it interesting that Rosario didn’t creep before the pitch; he went straight from a relaxed position to a ready position. Other notes Sano is going to be a fan favorite. He threw balls into the stands whenever he got the chance, once from the pitcher’s mound. The kids picked up on this pretty quickly and went crazy calling “hey 24” every time he got the ball. That was good to see. Daniel Ortiz hit a homerun right down the rightfield line (330 feet at the foul pole). It was more of a line drive than a fly ball but it still cleared the 15 foot high wall.

Great article, very in-depth. Are you planning on doing this for pitchers? I would be interested in reading that. First and foremost, let's hope some of these guys get hot for the next month and increase their value. I think that the Twins should do anything and everything to get legitimate prospects in return. For this reason, I have no problem with the Twins paying a hefty portion of Morneau's salary in order to increase his value. What about packaging players? I know it doesn't happen much, but some of these teams have multiple needs we can fill. This includes the Pirates, Garrett Jones has struggled at 1B and Travis Snider has been dreadful. Willlingham to the Pirates could be an option if Marte can move to RF. Kingham's numbers look pretty good to me. He could be a steal.

I agree that Gibson should stay in AAA. Although he has shown more "consistency" his last 3 starts by abandoning his previous good-bad-good pattern, he has been underwhelming. In his last 3 starts Gibson has an ERA of 2.84, which is excellent, but he has just 14 K and 8 BB in 19 innings. I would like to see him improve that ratio before he is promoted.