twinsin17

Nick Gordon could be a really good player and considering our dearth of short stops and their astronomic value I'd happily get behind this choice. I have yet to read any report indicating he won't stick at short and most reports say he has the potential to be a plus fielder to go with his + to ++ arm. I've read his baseball IQ is off the charts and this off season he started to fill in his wiry 6'2" 170 lb frame with muscle, adding significantly more pop to his bat this spring. I am sure Dee's success this year has only driven his stock up in scout's eyes and Dee was a 4th rounder six years ago. Alex Jackson is no sure thing either and if we are going to roll the dice with one of them why not go with the player whose position is infinitely more difficult to fill with a capable bat (assuming Jackson moves to RF). Sign me up, I've drank the Nick Gordon Kool-Aid and it tastes pretty good.

Perfect Game posted their first mock of the year...wish I had an Insider subscription to see it!

Let's hope Rosario and Hamburger don't spark up too good of a relationship or they may be forever jointed.

I haven't seen anywhere grade Jackson's present or future tools this high (65/65/70 puts him on par with Sano) but if it is accurate Jackson would be hard to pass at 5. No pitcher available would project to have three tools that loud.

I would be fine with Freeland, if his last two years were better he would be receiving a lot more buzz. He dominated the Cape and has been unhittable this spring. I have to think the Twins like what they see with him (Control? Check. Misses bats? Check.) and are giving him strong consideration. As another poster proposed this could be a lower cost strategy and allow the team to pick some higher ceiling HS arms later in the draft.

Barring a surprise pick the top 4 seems pretty set in stone at this point. Unless the Twins have great conviction in another arm, Jackson looks to be our guy. Could we pull our own surprise and take Nick Gordon? That could be interesting...

Seth I share your excitement for Meyer. I'd like to see him hone his change up for the time being in AAA and see him as a later season call up, however. If he can nail that pitch down it will make his transition to the bigs much easier. No doubt he represents an upgrade over Pelfrey and Correia but it is more likely Duffey or Johnson gets the call first in the event of an injury or demotion given their spots on the 40 man and the fact that we have no LHPs in the rotation currently. You said it best when you said there is no risk to have him continue to make AAA starts. Since Meyer represents the future of the rotation and we realistically have a much better shot at contending 3-4 yrs down the road than this or next season I think an extra year of control is extremely valuable for the team in the long run.

It sounds like we are talking about wOBA. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/ In short, wOBA places a value on each hitting event - BBs, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR - based on their actual run value. Kind of like OPS but better because it recognizes getting on base is more valuable than how many bases the hit results in. In the Twins case, what wOBA does not account for is that we are replacing outs (not hits) with BBs. Maybe we should create a new metric TwOBA. Go Twins!

Freeland would make me very happy and there is a very good chance he will be there when we pick. If he is not there, then we will take one of Rodon/Hoffman (provided his arm checks out)/Kolek/Aiken. Although I wouldn't mind a bat like Alex Jackson it seems the pitchers mentioned rank ahead of him in both ceiling and floor. In the 2nd I would be happy with a projectable HS arm or someone who can take pitches and slug a bit like AJ Reed, Mike Papi or Michael Conforto.

Favorite all-time is kirby and current is dozier. Pizza? Pepperoni and green olives.

Diddo! Especially if Aiken, Kolek, Roden and Hoffman are the top 4 picks. This draft is so deep in HS arms that we would undoubtedly be able to pick a talented one in round 2. Jackson would be a huge addition to the system.

Give it a week or two and Kyle Freeland's name will be coming out of everyone's mouth as a top 5 candidate. I am not too worried the top tier is just four players deep, there does not seem to be the same drop off in talent as there has been in previous drafts between the first two tiers. Last year, for instance, was a significant drop off from the top 3 to our pick at 4. I think it is safe to say everyone would have rather us picked Appel, Bryant or Gray than Kohl Stewart. Not meant to be a knock on Stewart but the top 3 are just at another level talent wise.

I think this is a pretty good looking mock. Personally I prefer Hoffman over Beede and Alex Jackson over both of them. Kyle Freeland is sneaking up there as well...

Have we overlooked junior LHP Kyle Freeland as a potential pick at 5? He has absolutely dominated inferior competition in the Missouri Valley Conference this year and leads D1 baseball in Ks and K/Walk ratio. Reports say he has grown to 6'4" 190 lbs and he has excellent command of a 94 mph fastball with movement and strong secondary stuff. It seems he has more helium than any other college starter and I would expect the next round of mocks to project this. I am very curious on how the Twins view him.

Here is a chart comparing senior year hitting stats of Clint Frazier and Alex Jackson. It goes without saying this is not an apples to apples comp as they field different positions and have very different physical attributes and projections. As hitters, however, both are known for elite bat speed and aggressive approaches. If anything else it is an interesting comparison of pure hitting stats: [TABLE] Player GP[TD=width: 45, bgcolor: #808080]AVG[/TD] [TD=width: 32, bgcolor: #808080]PA[/TD] [TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]AB[/TD] [TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]R[/TD] [TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]H[/TD] [TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]RBI[/TD] [TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]2B[/TD] [TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]3B[/TD] [TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]HR[/TD] [TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]BB[/TD] [TD=width: 62, bgcolor: #808080]BB%[/TD] [TD=width: 28, bgcolor: #808080]K[/TD] [TD=width: 50, bgcolor: #808080]K%[/TD] [TD=width: 45, bgcolor: #808080]OBP[/TD] [TD=width: 45, bgcolor: #808080]SLG[/TD] [TD=width: 45, bgcolor: #808080]OPS[/TD] Frazier 32 0.485 114 97 56 47 45 4 4 17 17 14.91% 8 7.02% 0.561 1.134 1.695 Jackson 13 0.436 54 39 19 17 16 3 1 7 10 18.52% 4 7.41% 0.593 1.102 1.696 Projected 32 0.436 133 0 47 42 40 8 3 17 25 18.52% 10 7.41% 0.593 1.102 1.696 [/TABLE] From a power perspective their stats are nearly identical with Jackson earning a slight edge in pitch selection as he has a higher walk rate. What makes me excited about Jackson that Frazier lacks is physical projection. He is a solid 6'2" 215 lb 18 year old who will likely add 10-20 lbs before reaching the bigs. If he is available at 5 it would be hard to pass on an opportunity to add a legit 30+ homer potential bat to our system. His current power is big and his future power could be elite. I say if Rodon/Aiken/Kolek are gone and Jackson is available we should take him, move him to the OF and have him focus his time on maximizing his hitting potential instead of learning to call games at the big league level.

It is doubtful in my eyes that 3 of the 8 are bats and if there are 3 bats it is safe to include Jackson, potentially Turner and likely not Gatewood. I value Gordon and Zimmer over both Turner and Gatewood.

With a top 5 pick you want to draft for start potential. Definitely pick BPA, no question about it. Whatever perceived strength we have now will be different in 4-5 years when whoever we pick should be ready to contribute. Barring injury or an arm falling off, the top 4 seems pretty steady with Aiken/Kolek/Hoffman/Rodon in whatever order. Pick 5 is entirely more interesting. These are my top options for the Twins if those four are gone. I don't think there is much separation between them at this point but I am no scout and have not seen any of them live: Jackson - most scouting reports say he has the best bat in the draft, too bad info on him is so hard to find. Looks like a gamer though with mature build and intensity to match. I bet his gets after it level is through the roof. Gardy, for one, places high value on that "tool". Holmes - may have best three pitch ceiling with ability to command each offering. Thick, not much projection left but current ability is very good. On a side note, instead of Holmsy would Gardy call him Meat (as in Head)? )Beede - looked so good early, struggling so much now. Could be great if... Can he show the ability to make adjustments and get back on track to finish the year as strong as he started? Gordon - solid across the board tools at premium position, high baseball IQ. Lots of projection with bat as he could add another 20+ lbs and not lose ability to play SS at a high level. Maybe recent success of Florida shortstops plays in his favor (Machado, Russell, Lindor, Baez, Arroyo). Newcomb - bad competition but has the best pitching line of anyone not named Tyler Kolek. Big lefty who can throw hard and has decent secondary stuff, a bit unknown because he plays for Hartford. High risk/reward. Zimmer - he is raking and shows all 5 tools. Tall, athletic, broad shoulders and looks like he could easily add 20-30 lbs. Could have big time power. Bonus that his brother is in KC and has improved greatly every year in college and now the minors. If his track record of success was longer he might be higher on the list.

Yes, there were some negatives about the game. Mainly pitching and a misplaced infielder doing what he is asked to help the team. But as rough a game as Nolasco had pitching, Masterson was worse. Give our bats some due credit! Colabello, Plouffe, Kubel and both catchers are smacking the ball and Mauer is coming around. So far we are hitting much better than I anticipated coming out of spring training.

I'd like to learn more about two way prospect AJ Reed from Kentucky. He mashes and is a solid lefty on the mound as well. Is he someone the Twins may consider in Round 2? His position may be limited to 1B due to his size his bat has a lot of value.

I'd like input from scouts on a number of things. Obviously it would be fun to hear from Twins scouts on who they like as it would give us insider info on who we may pick. I am also interested in how they measure mechanics in hitting and pitching, how they project growth, velocity increases, power, how they calibrate to remain consistent with each other, if there are any new scouting tools they have deployed, what kind of interaction they have with players, parents and coaches regarding signability and character, etc. As far as draft profiles and mocks go the internet seems to have these covered pretty well but if you choose to go this path a series on top 5 - 10 available by position would be handy. Hope this helps.

Lots of analysts are pretty down on Rodon lately and some think he could fall out of the top 10. He has less projection than the HS arms and some think he may have already peaked. Beede has more projection and is a better athlete than Rodon but he has also lost quite a bit of steam as his control has regressed substantially and brought back all the concerns we heard preseason. Brady (not Clay) Aiken, Bradley Zimmer, Grant Holmes and Nick Gordon have a lot of helium right now and Tyler Kolek has done the best to retain his preseason standing as a shoe-in top 5 pick. The more I hear about Gordon and watch impressive hitting clips (legit SS power!) the more excited I get. If we don't take one of the top HS arms - Aiken, Kolek, Holmes - or Jeff Hoffman I could see us grabbing Gordon.

I hate to speculate but the fact that Rosario has disappeared leads me to believe he may have entered a rehab facility. The details around his reason for suspension were pretty vague. Baseball has to be hush hush about players in the drug abuse program so the team may be unable to comment on his whereabouts. If this is the case I hope he gets the help needed and can make the necessary changes in his life because all indications are he has a bright future.

Is Jeff Reboulet still available?

I am sure we'll start hearing more about Grant Holmes once his HS season begins March 26. He has an upper 90s FB (reports say it topped out at 98 in a spring scrimmage) and his curveball may be the best out-pitch in the draft.

One thing that stands out is the consistent high pitch counts for Rodon. Coming in to his junior year he already had 250 collegiate innings under his belt. With a high walk rate and a tendency to go deeper in to counts gunning for a strikeout one has to consider the impact this wear and tear is having on a young arm who relies so heavily on a slider as his out pitch. I've also read multiple places that his slider doesn't have the bite it once did. Surely teams will put him through rigorous tests but it seems plausible some at the top will shy away, especially if they value the ability to better control pitch counts for HS arms. It may be more of a sign of how strong the HS pitching class is but the old adage of a college pitcher being a safer pick over a HS arm seems to be fading.