Dance with Disco Dan

Start No. 24 (08/27/14) The Kernels faced the Kane County Cougars in the first game of a three-game series with the Kernels trailing the Cougars by three games in the second-half standings. A sweep by the Kernels would pull them into a tie in the division race with one series to play. Ryan did his part submitting another Quality Start in the Kernels’ 3-2, 11-inning victory. Ryan’s solid finish to the season continued. He pitched 6 innings, faced 23 batters and surrendered only 4 hits (including 3 2Bs) and 1 walk. He also reversed his trend of low strikeout totals by striking out 6 Cougars. Ryan had a lot of success inducing the Cougars to hit the ball on the ground—2.67 GO/AO—which has been a struggle for him this season. He was replaced trailing 2-1 but the bullpen held up and the team rallied for an extra-inning victory. Over his last eight appearances, Ryan has booked a 3.11 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and shaved 1.31 off his ERA. Some key season stats: 5.36 ERA 1.53 WHIP 0.77 GO/AO .292 AVG 4.49 FIP Links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

Start No. 23 (08/22/14) In this game, the Kernels faced the Burlington Bees, their likely first-round playoff opponent. The Bees are the MWL’s second-worst hitting team (.663 OPS) and have struggled in the second half of the season (26-34 W/L). But, by virtue of their second place finish in the first half, the Bees already have a playoff spot secured. The Kernels have all but secured their spot as well enjoying an 8-game cushion with 10 games to play. There was a lot to like in this game as the Kernels cruised to an 8-2 victory. Ryan submitted his fourth Quality Start in his last seven games. He pitched 6 innings, facing 22 batters and surrendering only 5 hits (including 2 2Bs) and one earned run. He did not issue any walks. The only negative was that Ryan struck out only two batters continuing a trend of low strikeout totals. Over his last seven appearances, Ryan has booked a 3.21 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP but only a 4.24 SO/9. He has shaved 1.19 off his ERA during that span. Some key season stats: 5.48 ERA 1.57 WHIP 0.74 GO/AO .297 AVG Links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

The 2014 draft must have been a treat for you, then. If the Twins didn't draft Gordon, you could've convinced me they just decided not to scout high schools. The 2002, Moneyball version of Billy Beane shook his head and said, "Yikes. Terry Ryan is over-doing it on the whole college thing." As for Eades, I had other names in mind for the 43rd pick, too. But, I was hoping that he'd have a good season and be a quick to the majors inning-eater. Clearly, that does not look likely right now. Next year will be a make or break season. Given this year's draft, I imagine Ryan will stay a starter until he figures it out or is pushed out by the players coming up behind him.

Start No. 22 (08/17/14) Ryan took the mound against the Peoria Chiefs, with the Kernels trying to chase down the Kane County Cougars for first place in the MWL Western Division second-half race. Because the Cougars were the first-half champions, they’ve already secured their playoff spot (along with the Burlington Bees). The Kernels are in good shape for one of the two remaining playoff slots as well as they enjoy an 6-game cushion over the Timber Rattlers and a 8-game cushion over the Chiefs. Still, it would be nice if the Kernels’ resurgence is rewarded with a half-season division championship. If the playoffs started today, the Kernels would play the Bees in the first round. The good news is that the Kernels rallied from a three-run deficit to win 5-4 when a Chiefs reliever threw two wild pitches in the 9th inning to score Logan Wade from second base. The bad news is that Ryan’s performance was a step back from the previous five outings. In this game he faced 28 batters over 6 innings. Like last start, he allowed a bunch of base runners but was not as successful in limiting the damage. Ryan surrendered 4 earned runs on 7 hits (including two 2B and a 3B) and two walks. He also hit 2 batters and struck out only one. He left the game with the score tied 4-4. In short, this was a clunker. One thing to keep an eye on is Ryan’s decreasing strike-out rate – 4.4 SO/9 over the last 6 games. Prior to this stretch—which has been mostly successful—Ryan was maintaining a SO/9 over 7. This could be a sign of full-season fatigue for a player that has taken the ball every turn all season. Some key season stats: 5.68 ERA 1.61 WHIP 0.71 GO/AO Links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

Start No. 21 (08/12/14) Ryan re-entered the starting rotation and picked up the win in the Kernels’ 12-5 victory over the Beloit Snappers. He submitted his third Quality Start in five games and has lowered his ERA nearly a full run over that span. That said, this was far from a dominating performance. Ryan faced 29 batters during 6 innings of work. He surrendered 9 hits (including a 2B, 3B, and HR) and 3 walks while striking out 4 batters. Fortunately, he was able to strand most of the base-runners and allowed only 2 earned runs. He exited the game leading 12-2. Some key season stats: 5.67 ERA 1.61 WHIP 4.70 FIP Links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

Relief Appearance No. 1 (08/05/14) Ryan made his first relief appearance of the season under odd circumstances. He entered the game against the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers in the fourth inning replacing the rehabbing Ricky Nolasco with two out and no one on base. I am hoping this was a planned change based on a pitch limit for Nolasco rather than any injury set back. The fact that Ryan was brought in rather than a bullpen arm makes me think it was a planned substitution. The good news is that the Kernels won the game 9-0 and Ryan had one of his most effective outings of the season. He shut out the Timber Rattlers over 4.1 innings allowing only 2 singles and striking out 5 batters. The sole negative was that he issued 3 walks. Overall, it was a strong performance against a team that has gotten the better of Ryan several times this season. Let’s hope his resurgence of late can continue through the end of the season. Links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

You'll have to show me data that the game is being delayed even minutely while the players shift. The shifting players aren't waiting for the batter to dig in before they move. Moreover, if the shift results in even one fewer baserunner per game, it more than offset any delay resulting from defenders moving around. I think the "delay" argument is being used as a straw-man for something else - resistance to change, preference for status quo, etc. Here is the shift rule MLB needs: "If you work as a commentator for the MLB Network, you can be anti-shift but you CANNOT scream and shout about the worthlessness of the shift every time a ball goes for a hit against the shift through the spot a 'traditionally' positioned player would be if the team did not shift. ALL MLB commentators must demonstrate some level of understanding that the shift is deployed to increase the PROBABILITY of fielding a batted ball and it is not a guarantee of fielding a batted ball." This shall be known as the Ripken/Reynolds rule. Get it on the books Bud.

Start No. 20 (07/30/14) A 10-day vacation derailed my start-for-start updates and a general malaise caused by Ryan’s disappointing season made it difficult to get back into the swing of things. But, a second quality start in three games deserves to be recognized if only for the progress it represents. In this game against the Burlington Bees, Ryan took the mound for his 20th-straight scheduled start (hey, durability should be recognized). He went 7 innings and was replaced with the game tied 2-2 in the Kernels’ 11-inning 3-2 victory. But for the Bees’ 24-year-old first baseman, Eric Aguilera, Ryan dominated. Aguilera connected for a double and two solo home runs in three at bats. The rest of the Bees managed only a single and two walks in 21 plate appearances. A very solid performance. Make no mistake, there are some concerning trends that must be acknowledged. Ryan has surrendered 8 home runs in the last six games, continues to be very fly-ball prone—GO/AO .73—and his strike out rate has plummeted the last four starts – SO/9 4.0. Nevertheless, Ryan just submitted his best three-start run since early in the season. Perhaps he is responding to the improved pitching from the Kernels’ starters as a group. Let’s hope he keeps it up and is an asset as the Kernels chase a playoff spot. Some Season Stats (cannot yet figure out how to paste a table in the new site without it becoming corrupted): ERA: 6.08 FIP: 4.71 WHIP: 1.608 (links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats): League RERH http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

Start No. 16 (07/09/14) If ever a start which increased an already inflated ERA can be described as a step in the right direction, this was it. Ryan improbably faced the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers for the fifth time in ten starts. And once again, the Brewers’ affiliate got the best of him in a 5-2 victory. But this time, the result does not tell the story of what was generally a strong outing. The big lead is that Ryan set a career high by striking out 9 batters, seven of them swinging. He pitched into the sixth inning but was removed before recording an out and trailing 3-0. Ryan faced a total of 24 batters and was charged with 5 earned runs on 6 hits and one walk. But, unlike most of his starts the last two months, it’s worthwhile to look deeper into the box score. For example, two of the six hits against Ryan were bunt singles. Also, the only extra-base hit he surrendered was a 2-out, inside-the-park home run to center field that scored three runs. I didn’t see the play but, in my experience, inside-the-park home runs only happen when a player is incapacitated after crashing into the wall or misses a diving attempt at a catch. It’s safe to assume that if the ball was played differently as few as one run would’ve scored on the play. Ryan was relieved by Chris Mazza in the sixth inning with runners on first and second and no outs. Unfortunately, Mazza was unable to work out of the inning before both runners scored. A little pick-me-up by the bullpen would’ve left Ryan with a line more indicative of his performance. The biggest negative in his outing was that he hit two batters, one of whom scored in the sixth inning. Ryan’s game line was as follows: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades 5.0 6 5 5 1 9 1 6.54 [/TABLE] Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR MID 5 9 6.54 16 16 1 1 0 75.2 98 61 55 6 33 68 0.74 .318 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

Start No. 15 (07/03/14) Ryan faced the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers for the fourth time in nine starts and for the third time his results were poor. In this case, it appears the advantage of familiarity goes to the Brewers’ affiliate. Seven batters reached safely in the Timber Rattlers’ 4-run 2nd inning and they went on to beat the Kernels 5-3. Ryan exited the game trailing 5-2 and was charged with his 8th loss of the season. To his credit, Ryan took the ball for the fifteenth straight start demonstrating a level of durability. Unfortunately, the formula is [(Durability) + (Performance) = Pitching Prospect], and he fell short once again in the Performance category. Ryan threw 89 pitches over 5 innings, faced 26 batters and surrendered 5 earned runs on 7 hits (including 3 doubles and a home run). He also walked three batters, hit two batters, and threw one wild pitch. Ryan did strike out five batters, four of them swinging. His game line was as follows: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades (L, 5-8) 5.0 7 5 5 3 5 1 6.37 [/TABLE] Given Ryan’s age and experience, his struggles at Cedar Rapids are disappointing. By all reports he has the arm to move up but, for whatever reason, he has not been able to put together effective starts since early in the season. It will be interesting to watch how he finishes the season Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR MID 5 8 6.37 15 15 1 1 0 70.2 92 56 50 5 32 59 0.71 .321 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

Start No. 14 (06/28/14) In this start, Ryan faced a Clinton LumberKings lineup playing without its two best hitters, Austin Wilson and Tyler O’Neill (both on the DL). He also watched his offense stake him to 8 runs in the first two innings. Ryan capitalized on these two circumstances and picked up his 5th win of the season in the Kernels’ 9-5 victory. He was fortunate, however, that the Kernels’ bats showed up because he did not have a particularly effective outing. Over 5 innings, Ryan faced 24 batters and surrendered 5 runs (4 earned) on 7 hits (including 2 home runs). It is worth mentioning that he struck out 5 batters and did not surrender a walk. Nevertheless, his WHIP remains alarmingly high at 1.736. I am sure many have already read Seth Stohs’ first-hand account of the game. (http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/3166-Kernels-Nuggets-Haar-s-Homers-Help). For those that haven’t, here are some of his observations regarding Ryan: “[Ryan] had a quick 1-2-3 inning in the first frame. He looked impressive. His fastball sat between 90 and 92 and touched 94 early in the game. He showed a slider at 83, and a changeup at about 82. His curveball was in the low-to-mid 70s. “All four of those were quality pitches. He gave up one run in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th innings and then two runs in the fifth inning. He has the pitches, but he seemed to make a bad pitch or two each inning that came back to haunt him.” Ryan’s game line was as follows: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades (W, 5-7) 5.0 7 5 4 0 5 2 6.17 [/TABLE] Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR MID 5 7 6.17 14 14 1 1 0 65.2 85 51 45 4 29 54 0.66 .318 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

Start No. 13 (06/22/14) Ryan took the mound for the first time in 10 days due to the Midwest League All-Star game and a subsequent rain-out. He faced the Kane County Cougars—featuring a scorching hot Kyle Schwarber (selected no. 4 overall this year)—in the first game of double-header and his performance was decidedly mixed. On the positive side, he limited the Cougars to 2 hits and 0 runs and left the game leading 3-0 in a 5-0 Kernels victory. On the negative side, Ryan lasted only 4 innings, issued 4 walks, threw a wild pitch, and struck out only 1 batter. In short, it was the type of outing that deserves a grizzled old hack to summarize. (HE SHUT THEM OUT!). Unfortunately, when I evaluate the performance of a 22 year old in low-A, I am far more interested in the inputs than the result. In this case, it was too few innings and too little control to be considered a good outing despite the lack of runs allowed. That said, WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!!! (I may be unwilling to hack it up in the face of contrary statistical evidence, but that doesn’t mean I am not a Twins-prospect Pollyanna). Ryan’s game line was as follows: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades 4.0 2 0 0 4 1 0 6.08 [/TABLE] Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] eam League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR MID 4 7 6.08 13 13 1 1 0 60.2 78 46 41 2 29 49 0.67 .318 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

Start No. 12 (06/12/14) Ryan’s season experienced in uptick in this start against the Quad Cities River Bandits, an Astros affiliate. While not dominant, Ryan pitched his third Quality Start of the season in the Kernels’ 5-2 victory. This effort was a marked improvement over his prior start against the River Bandits in which he surrendered 9 runs in only 3.2 innings. This game, Ryan went seven full innings and exited leading 4-2. He faced 26 batters and surrendered 2 earned runs on nine hits (only one for extra bases) and one walk. The River Bandits helped Ryan out immensely, however, by having four runners cut down on the bases. That fact, and only two strike outs, tempers my excitement over the improvement this start represents. Nevertheless, a performance like this one can go a long way toward restoring Ryan’s confidence and hopefully is a sign of better things to come. Ryan’s game line was as follows: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades (W, 4-7) 7.0 9 2 2 1 2 0 6.51 [/TABLE] Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR MID 4 7 6.51 12 12 1 1 0 56.2 76 46 41 2 25 48 0.69 .328 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

Seven-day account suspension for anyone that answers, Matt Capps.

Start No. 11 (06/06/14) Well, that happened. After facing the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers for the third time in five starts, it’s safe to say that Ryan’s season has not turned the corner. In fact, it’s reached a new low. Ryan was pulled after only two innings. He threw 50 pitches, recorded 6 outs and surrendered 9 earned runs on, 8 hits, 2 walks, a hit batter and a wild pitch. Simply put, this is not the same pitcher that had a 2.87 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.3 SO/9, .261 AVG after six starts. If Ryan is not hurt, I am having a hard time understanding why his performance has fallen off the proverbial cliff. He wasn’t dominating early in the season but he was doing well enough that a late season promotion to Fort Myers looked likely. The question now is, what should the Twins do with a 22 year-old who appears to have “lost it.” Is a return to EST appropriate? The Astros did that with Appel so I assume that’s an option. I cannot think of a single Kernels pitcher who’s gotten better during the course of the season. The coaching staff certainly has had little success in turning around the pitchers that have struggled. Perhaps some new voices down in Fort Myers will be helpful. Sadly, this is not the performance we hoped for Ryan when he was drafted just a year ago. I am sure he feels the same way. Ryan’s game line was as follows: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades (L, 3-7) 2.0 8 9 9 2 2 0 7.07 [/TABLE] Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] eam League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR MID 3 7 7.07 11 11 1 1 0 49.2 67 44 39 2 24 46 0.68 .322 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

We are set up to disappoint 2/3 of this board. The Gordons vs. Jacksons vs. Nola/Newcombs. The Twins cannot win the majority tonight. I'd like one of the bats.

I agree and can only conclude that Thorpe has looked VERY sharp and prepared in EST. That makes me all the more excited to see what he can do. I was sorry to see Felix Jorge get battered like he did but I am happy that he has been sent back to EST to rest and regroup. Things were not turning around for him in CR.

Start No. 10 (05/29/14) After three increasingly poor starts caused his ERA to balloon from 2.87 to 6.12, Ryan pitched fairly well against the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, a Brewers affiliate. Three starts prior, the Timber Rattlers chased Ryan in the third inning. This game, Ryan pitched five innings and left the game tied 3-3 in an 8-5 Kernels loss. The Timber Rattler’s lineup again included only one top-20 Brewers prospect, C Clint Coulter (#12 MLB.com). But for some self-inflicted damage, Ryan would have left the game in position to win. He walked the lead-off batter in the 4th inning who came around to score on a two-out double. In the 5th inning, Ryan was charged with an error on a sacrifice bunt attempt. That miscue extended the inning and led to a two-out single that plated two runners including the player that reached base on the error. In total, Ryan faced 23 batters and surrendered 1 earned run on 4 hits (including 1 double) and 2 walks. All in all, a very respectable performance and one I hope signals a return to the better form he showed in April. His game line was as follows: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades 5.0 4 3 1 2 4 0 5.66 [/TABLE] Clint Coulter was 0-2, walk against Ryan. In fact, Coulter has drawn three walks from Ryan in two games. Although he is repeating the Midwest League, Coulter is putting together an impressive season for a 20 year old catcher (1.5 years younger than the league average). His current slash line is .280/.422/.524. I don’t know if he can catch well but he is showing great plate discipline and extra-base power (2nd in the League with 9 HRs). Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR MID 3 6 5.66 10 10 1 1 0 47.2 59 35 30 2 22 44 0.63 .303 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

It will be interesting to see if Boras plays that game again. He already got lucky once with Appel who turned down $3.8 million from the Pirates and ended up with $6.35 million from the Astros. A very good result but the it remains an open question whether the risk was appropriate. Given what the draft experts expect to happen with Hoffman, the likely signing bonus floor for Appel was probably in the $1.5 to $1.8 million dollar range even if had he blown out his elbow after returning to Stanford (can the same be said if a labrum is involved - I have doubts). So, the risk in turning down $3.8 million from the Pirates was roughly $2 to $2.3 million. Although he ultimately increased his bonus by $2.55 million, his maximum possible return on his gambit was $3.99 million (the full slot bonus number of the Astros' 2013 No. 1 pick--admittedly ignoring the idea that a team can pay over slot). So he risked losing as much as $2.3 million for a chance at earning as much as $4 million more than offered. I don't know anything about Appel's family but, unless his parents are legitimately wealthy, it did not seem (to me) appropriate for Boras to advise a young pitcher to take that type of risk (given those pesky UCLs and labrums they rely on). Everyone has their own risk tolerance but I think we all can agree that the $2 million dollars between $1.8 and $3.8 million dollars has a MUCH bigger impact on a person's lifestyle and financial security than the $2.5 million between $3.8 and $6.3 million. On a bigger scale, its the difference between Scherzer turning down the big offer and Trout accepting it. Scherzer has already made $30 million (forever money for the reasonably sane) while Trout had barely made $1 million. Happily, Appel won't spend his lifetime ruminating about his choice because it worked out and he stayed healthy AND productive. Bringing the conversation back to Rodon, his analysis must also include the fact that the NC State coaching staff has demonstrated that it will use Rodon until he is used up if they perceive the need for a couple more ACC victories. If he elects not to sign, I believe he would be better off sitting out the year or playing independent baseball rather than putting his future back in their hands. All that said, sign a deal Rodon. Let Boras show everyone he knows best with guys like Drew and Morales who have already pocketed $10 million plus.

Start No. 9 (05/23/14) Reporting on Ryan’s progress is a lot less fun than it was four weeks ago. For the third straight game, Ryan submitted a career-worst performance. I am sure he is disappointed and I hope that his recent struggles do not signal a latent injury. The Kernels have been using a six-man starting rotation so I can’t imagine he is suffering from fatigue. In this game, Ryan faced the Quad Cities River Bandits, an Astros affiliate. Although the River Bandit line-up does not include any of the Astros’ top-20 prospects, that says more about the strength of the Astros’ minor-league system than the ability of the River Bandit hitters. In fact, the River Bandits are the best hitting team in the Midwest league with a collective slash-line of .285/.366/.416. Their .782 OPS is 51 points higher than the OPS of the second highest team. Unfortunately, they hit Ryan like they are a 1.500 OPS team. Ryan faced 24 batters and 14 of them reached base. He recorded only 11 outs and was replaced in the 4th inning. He surrendered a career-high 9 earned runs on 10 hits (including 4 doubles and a home run) and 4 walks. Grim stats on their face but made worse considering that, after two innings, Ryan had not surrendered a hit or a run (he’d walked 3 hitters). The final 16 batters he faced recorded all 10 hits and one walk. Not good times. Ryan did strike out 3 hitters but also uncorked his 7th wild pitch of the season. His current WHIP is 1.758. [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades (L, 3-6) 3.2 10 9 9 4 3 1 6.12 [/TABLE] Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR MID 3 6 6.12 9 9 1 1 0 42.2 55 32 29 2 20 40 0.57 .314 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

Start No. 8 (05/17/14) Let’s start out with something positive: Ryan struck out a career-high seven batters against the Burlington Bees, an Angels affiliate. Unfortunately, when the Bees weren’t striking out, they were pounding the baseball en route to a 7-2 victory. The Bees, one of the poorer hitting teams in the Midwest League (collective slash-line of .240/.317/.357), continued to feast on Kernels pitching. Despite jumping out to a 2-0 lead, the Kernels could not end their losing streak which now stands at eight games—and 11 of the last 12 games. The Bees lineup included Angels’ prospects, OF Mike Fish (#19 MLB.com) and 2B Kody Eaves (#20 MLB.com). You better believe I was excited to learn that there is a non-zero chance the Angels could someday field an outfield with Mike Trout and Mike Fish. Moreover, I demand that Bud Selig require the Padres to ship minor league 2B-OF Mike Bass to the Angels to really give us something to dream on. Despite recording the seven strike outs, Ryan’s performance supplants his prior outing as the worst of his career. Ryan faced 26 batters over five innings and surrendered a career-high 7 earned runs on 9 hits and 2 walks. Most significantly, among the 9 hits were 4 doubles, a triple and a home run. He exited the game trailing 7-2 (Brandon Bixler and Hudson Boyd pitched 3 shut-out innings in relief). In previous updates, I noted that Ryan had allowed relatively few extra-base hits this season. In fact, I spent time Saturday morning putting together numbers on this topic to highlight how well he’s been doing. My intent was to include that data in this write-up. Predictably, pursuant to the Eddie Mush Jinx axiom, the results of that work were rendered moot before they were posted. My apologies to Ryan, I should know better. Ryan’s game line was as follows: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades (L, 3-5) 5.0 9 7 7 2 7 1 4.62 [/TABLE] Ryan had mixed results against the higher-rated prospects: Fish went 2-3, 2B, 3B, DP; Eaves went 0-3, 2K. Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (links are to Ryan’s MiLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference pages for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] eam League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR MID 3 5 4.62 8 8 1 1 0 39.0 45 23 20 1 16 37 0.56 .288 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549448&position=P http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya

Start No. 7 (05/10/14) That crashing sound emanating from Appleton on Saturday was the Eades Express careening off the tracks. After three straight starts with either good or great results, Ryan logged his worst outing as a professional. Despite facing a Timber Rattlers lineup that included only one top-20 Brewers prospect, C Clint Coulter (#12 MLB.com)—keep in mind that the Brewers have the 30th ranked minor league system—Ryan allowed more base runners than outs recorded. He left the game trailing 4-1 in what was ultimately a 6-3 Timber Rattlers victory. In total, Ryan faced 18 batters, threw 78 pitches and recorded only eight outs. He allowed five hits and four walks while striking out only one batter. The four walks represent a season high. Most disappointing, however, was that Ryan uncorked two wild pitches during an inauspicious 3-run third inning. Both wild pitches allowed a runner on third base to score. The best thing that can be said about the outing, is that Ryan did not surrender any extra-base hits. He continues to allow relatively few (including zero HRs through seven starts) despite being a fly-ball pitcher. Ryan’s game line was as follows: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades (L, 3-4) 2.2 5 4 3 4 1 0 3.44 [/TABLE] Ryan walked Coulter both times he faced him. Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (link is to Ryan’s MiLB.com page for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR MID 3 4 3.44 7 7 1 1 0 34.0 36 16 13 0 14 30 0.56 .271 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280

Start No. 6 (05/04/14) For the second time in three starts, Ryan faced the Peoria Chiefs, a Cardinals affiliate, and one of the two teams ahead of the Kernels in the Midwest League Western Division. This time, he picked up the win in a short but very effective outing. With the bullpen contributing four innings of one-hit ball (tip of the cap to Yorman Landa!), the Kernels shut-out the Chiefs for the second straight game, winning 2-0. Ryan was matched up against LHP Rob Kaminsky, the Cardinals’ 2013 first-round selection (#4 ESPN & MLB.com), who was making his A-ball debut, but the Chiefs gave their top two hitting prospects, C Carson Kelly (#7 ESPN, #10 BA) and SS Juan Herrera (#15 MLB.com), the day off. For the second straight game—and the third time in six starts—Ryan did not allow an earned run. He limited the Chiefs to five base-runners over five innings surrendering 3 hits (all singles) and 2 walks. In all, Ryan faced 19 batters and struck out five—four of them swinging. Unfortunately, I could not locate a pitch count for this outing. Looking only at the box score and game log, it is surprising that he was replaced to start the sixth inning. Perhaps he was running deep counts throughout the game, but that is just speculation. Ryan’s game line was as follows: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades (W, 3-3) 5.0 3 0 0 2 5 0 2.87 [/TABLE] At the risk of jinxing things, it is worth mentioning that Ryan has not surrendered a home run through six starts and 31 innings despite being fly-ball prone. In fact, he has done a nice job limiting extra-base hits giving up only six doubles and a triple so far this season. It should also be noted that every team Ryan has faced thus far has at least a .500 record and four of his starts have been against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (link is to Ryan’s MiLB.com page for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR MID 3 3 2.87 6 6 1 1 0 31.1 31 12 10 0 10 29 0.48 .261 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280

I'd like to know how the draft evaluators view Jackson's hitting ability compared to Meadows, Frazier, and Smith the top-three high school bats from last year's draft. Given that Meadows may play CF, Smith is ONLY 1b, and a Jackson may stick at C or 3b, the four clearly aren't apples-to-apples prospects. But, if only offensive ceiling and probability are considered, how does Jackson stack up? Is the lack of other premium bats in this year's draft, especially from the college ranks, creating a somewhat inflated perception of his ability? Last year, 9 of the first 14 selections were position players. This year it may be 3 or 4. If anyone has seen any analysis along those lines, I'd be interested to hear about it.

Start No. 5 (04/28/14) Facing the red-hot Kane County Cougars—a Cubs affiliate and the early leaders in the Midwest League Western Division—Ryan delivered in a very big way. He shut out the Cougars 1-0, in a rain-shortened victory. Ryan faced only 22 batters over six innings and recorded a season-high 6 strikeouts. The Cougars’ lineup featured only one top Cubs prospect, OF Jacob Hannemann (#17 MLB.com), but given the quality and depth that the Cubs have in the high minors, it is very possible that others in the lineup would be ranked if they played for other organizations. Ryan’s start was the equal of, if not better than, his second start this season and could very well be considered the best of his career. He allowed only five base runners surrendering three hits (all singles), one walk, and one hit batter. The game log indicates that he got stronger as the game progressed. He allowed only 2 base runners after the first inning and struck out 5 of the last 6 batters he faced. Unfortunately, the game was called after the sixth inning so we can’t know whether Ryan would’ve continued pitching into the seventh inning. Ryan’s game line was as follows: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades (W, 2-3) 6.0 3 0 0 1 6 0 3.42 [/TABLE] Kernels CF Jason Kanzler deserves a special mention as he recorded 5 put-outs and threw a Cougars player out at home preserving the shut out. Ryan remains an extreme fly-ball pitcher through five starts which is something he will hopefully improve on as the season progresses. Ryan did well against Hannemann who went 0-2, K, HBP. Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (link is to Ryan’s MiLB.com and Baseball Reference pages for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR MID 2 3 3.42 5 5 1 1 0 26.1 28 12 10 0 8 24 0.43 .275 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280 [TABLE] Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W [/TD] [TD]2014 22 0.1 Cedar Rapids MIDW A MIN 2 3 .400 3.42 5 5 0 1 1 0 26.1 28 12 10 0 8 0 24 1 0 4 114 1.367 9.6 0.0 2.7 8.2 3.00 [/TABLE] http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eades-001rya