MGX

I've mentioned it a few times around here the last year or so, but I will be having a fun little adventure this summer and enjoying a game in every team's home park. I chose this summer so I could also enjoy a World Baseball Classic game or 2. Since I know you all can't get enough of my thoughts, feelings, and opinions on all things baseball, I figured I'd start a blog and share the journey with you. This first entry is to lay out the plan for you so you can see what it's going to look like and I can see what people are interested in hearing about.
Ticket plans: My plans for game tickets to MLB games are to get the cheapest tickets I can to almost every game. I want to see the parks. I want to see what the views are like from different angles and areas. I don't plan to be in my seat for most of the game so I don't want to waste money on expensive seats. The stadium I am most considering getting specific seats to is Fenway. I think it'd be fun to sit on The Monster. So, I may do that. If anyone has insight on other seat locations at other parks that are truly special and really provide a unique vantage point to a game, please let me know!
Travel plans: I don't want to drive in New York, so I will be doing a flight out to Washington and then trains and ubers and rental cars from there on my east coast swing. But the rest will be done in my trusty camper van. That will lead to some long days and tight windows on getting to some games and getting out of town after games, but it'll make for an exciting adventure! The WBC trip will be done solo, but the plan is to bring my dog with on the others. There'll be some hotel nights mixed in when we just need a night indoors with some comfort, but we're hearty, northern camping folk so we'll be good on the road most of the time. This will also allow us to save a few bucks over the flight and hotel option.
Schedule:
WBC/Spring Training- 
3/11 Dominican Republic vs Venezuela in Miami
3/12 Mets vs Cardinals in Jupiter
3/12 Nats vs Astros in West Palm Beach
3/13 Pool C vs Pool D WBC Quarterfinal in Miami
West Coast-
5/1 Colorado Rockies vs Braves
5/3 Sacramento Athletics vs Guardians
5/4 San Francisco Giants vs Padres
5/6 Los Angeles Angels vs White Sox
5/7 San Diego Padres vs Cardinals
5/8 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Braves
5/9 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Mets
5/11 Texas Rangers vs Diamondbacks
5/12 Houston Astros vs Mariners
Northeast-
5/21 Washington Nationals vs Mets
5/22 Baltimore Orioles vs Tigers
5/23 Philadelphia Phillies vs Guardians
5/24 New York Yankees vs Rays
5/25 New York Mets vs Reds
5/26 Boston Red Sox vs Braves
Midwest-
Chicago Cubs either start or end the trip with them depending on a couple other life events
6/22 Chicago White Sox vs Guardians
6/23 Cincinnati Reds vs Brewers
6/24 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Mariners
6/25 Toronto Blue Jays vs Rangers
6/26 Detroit Tigers vs Astros
6/27 Cleveland Guardians vs Mariners
6/28 Milwaukee Brewers vs Cubs
Southeast-
8/9 Kansas City Royals vs Cubs
8/10 St Louis Cardinals vs Phillies
8/11 Atlanta Braves vs Mets
8/13 Miami Marlins vs Pirates
8/14 Tampa Bay Rays vs Orioles
Seattle-
9/22 Seattle Mariners vs Astros
I'm in Seattle for a conference in September so they get their own special stand-alone game.
Minnesota-
Whenever. I live here. So, I'll go when the mood strikes.
There is an ability to move some games around and adjust with most of the schedule. Some of the schedule is pretty tight and that'll be fun and stressful all at the same time. I'm excited for the summer and think it'll be a pretty cool adventure.
Let me know what you think will be fun about it, what you think the pain points will be, and what things you think I should write about. What are you guys interested to know about all the different parks across the country and the challenge of seeing them all in one summer? Anything you're curious about with the WBC games? Let me know and I'll try my best to report back on it all!
Spring training has arrived and baseball season is right around the corner!

The Twins and Dodgers have done a few trades over the past few years, including most recently the trade for Margot.  Of course the one that comes to mind that really benefitted both clubs was the Kenta Maeda trade that brought Graterol to the Dodgers.
Could/should the Twins Dodgers look to make another potential win/win trade?
Take away both teams potential needs for starting pitching.  Dodgers due to injuries, and Twins due to an unproven rotation, and there seems to be a perfect matchup here for a trade.
The Twins thought they "solved" their RH OF issue by trading for Margot, but really that was a dud from the get go. Margot was not significantly better than anyone on the Twins roster or in the Twins system.
There is another player would completely fit, and we will get to that name shortly, but first the Dodgers "need".
the Dodgers love Gavin Lux's bat, so much so that they have moved him to 2B and have moved Mookie Betts once again. This time to SS.  Now Betts very well may make the transition to SS without any issues and not risk injury or any negative impact to his offense, but do you REALLY want to risk that?? For a unproven bat, even with his potential? Plus the kid is already 26.
I would suggest that the Dodgers may be open to acquiring a SS upgrade, even if it means jettisoning Lux.   HMMMM, what team that we all know and love seems to have a middle infield glut?
I COULD say the Twins should involve Correa in a trade if the Twins truly are concerned about their finances, but who wants to have such a major shakeup of a potential contending roster this close to the start of the season? Not to mention I actually like Correa on this team.
Correa then is set at SS.
Lewis is not going anywhere, an he is set at 3B.
Julien is presumably set at 2B (or even a slide to 1B for future infield set up), and he is purely a 2B, Dodgers would  need a SS in this scenario.
That leaves Brooks Lee as a potential option to be moved. Yes, I love Lee as much as the next person, and I think he COULD be a long time Twins great. And there are options fo rhim to get AB's this year, as well as starting next year if we do move Julien to 1B, but there is a bat I love in the Dodgers system, one that fits our needs.
I say we reach out to the Dodgers, offer the Dodgers Brooks Lee in exchange for Adny Pages (plus another player such as Maddux Burns who has a high upside arm).
Pages is near MLB ready, if not MLB ready right now, the only reason he has not made debut yet, was a shoulder injury he suffered last year. which he has shown he is recovered from. The kid has massive power, the most power in the Dodgers system, he has a cannon of an arm equal to, if not better than Wallner, decent to above average speed. Most of all, he is a right handed hitting outfielder.  HE checks every box the Twins need to compliment the lineup, PLUS he is young and can be a core piece in the future, and is ready right now.
Pages would be the PERFECT platoon with Wallner in 2024, and then transition next year to an OF of Pages, Buxton, Wallner. (Walker Jenkins, Rodriguez and Gonzalez are all AT LEAST 1 year away). Both have huge power, and hit opposite pitching well. both have huge arms.
and if we get a pitcher liek Maddux Bruns as well (Dodgers #16 overall) with a big armed lefty with tons of potential (albeit control issues).
 
A trade with Dodgers centered around Lee and Pages coudl be another one of those (although tougher to swallow) win/win trades.
 
 
 
 
 

You probably tuned out of the second half of the 2022 Twins season. Given the team's terribly underwhelming results and the Bally Sports North TV debacle, there were better things to do than watch Twins baseball.
While you were enjoying your summer, you missed Nick Gordon carrying the Twins’ offense, drilling line drives as a middle-of-the-order slugger. From July 1 onward, Gordon batted .281 with an OPS that was about 20% better than league average. In a disappointing season, Gordon’s offensive outburst was an exciting surprise.
Unfortunately, Gordon’s hot bat went cold during the Minnesota winter. He enters Friday batting a measly .161 this season and has seen his OPS decline more than 200 points from last season.
Why has Gordon struggled? Well, actually, he hasn’t. He has just been supremely unlucky. Gordon’s expected batting average (xBA) is .260 this year, nearly identical to his .261 xBA from a season ago.
Among Twins hitters, Gordon’s season is a clear outlier in terms of luck. There’s a Metrodome-sized gap between his batting average and what you would expect based on his quality of contact. He has the lowest batting average on the team, but the second highest expected batting average!

 
The -.099 differential is by far the widest among Twins position players with at least 20 at-bats.

In fact, in terms of BA-xBA differential, Gordon is the second unluckiest batter in all of MLB (min. 50 PA). 

How do you break a curse of bad luck? The internet says to throw a pinch of salt over your left shoulder, burn some incense, or find a lucky charm. To be safe, Nick Gordon should toss a few handfuls of salt, invite all his friends to an incense bonfire, and drive to the nearest Amazon warehouse to buy out their lucky rabbit feet. 
Thankfully for Gordon and Twins fans, Gordon might have turned a corner in Chicago. He collected hits in all three games of the series, including his first two homeruns of the year (hard to get unlucky if you hit the ball over the fence!). Gordon continuing to barrel the ball will go a long way in helping a Twins offense that has been inconsistent this season.
The numbers say it’s very likely that Gordon will begin to see the ball bounce his way. Over the course of a season, batting average and xBA almost always converge. Once a player reaches 100 at-bats in a season, their batting average and expected batting average are typically within .020 of one another. Nick Gordon’s -.099 differential won’t last forever.
If you’d like to do your part as a fan, the Twins’ mailing address is 1 Twins Way Minneapolis, MN 55403. Send Nick Gordon your good luck charms.

This is one person's view concerning the possible upcoming free agency of Shohei Ohtani.
There have been many predictions that Ohtani may be the first $500M player.  The reaction of most people is that a price tag like that eliminates the Twins.  But, does it?
If Ohtani becomes a free agent, I think the Twins should make a quick offer of 8 years at a total of $480M (an AVV of $60M).  WTF? you say?  Why not?  You get a genuine "ace" and a top tier outfielder wrapped up in a single person.  The top three free agent pitchers in 2022 signed for an average AVV of $32M and the top three free agent hitters signed for an average AVV of $27M (or $59M combined).  The offer looks outrageous but it is in line with the going rate.  It also frees up an additional roster spot!  And, from what I am hearing on MLB radio and TV, the merchandise sales in Japan alone might cover the entire salary.  It is certainly worth taking a shot at signing Ohtani.  Tell his agent it is your BAFO (best and final offer) and is good only for 24 hours.  If he signs, great.  If he doesn't sign, you gave it your best shot.

With Kyle Garlick being dfa'd and Gilberto Celestino being far from reliable, who should the Minnesota Twins have as their bench outfielder? Free agent options such as A.J. Pollock and Andrew McCutchen have signed elsewhere; options are becoming thin for the Twins. Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham are available, but both are 34 years old and could be nearing the end of their time in the Big Leagues. I want to look at one option still in-house that could fill this role for 2023 that would be a practical choice for Minnesota; Max Kepler. 
Cover Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Yes, I am aware that Kepler hits left-handed. However, Kepler held his own against lefties in 2022; he had a 98 wRC+ in left-on-left matchups. I don't think a right-handed bat is as big of a need as the presumption is; Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should all serve as plus bats against left-handed pitching. It seems inevitable that the Twins will trade Kepler this offseason, but if they don't, there is no reason he can't be a very serviceable outfielder off the bench. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton have all missed significant time the last two seasons due to injuries, so the Twins should be cautious to pencil in any of those guys for 150+ games. Kepler provides elite defense in RF, amassing a very impressive 46 DRS (defensive runs saved) and 51 OAA (outs above average) throughout his career; he should be comparable in LF as well. Kepler has also held his own in CF throughout his career. In just over 1,100 innings in CF, he has recorded 2 DRS and 8 OAA in his time there. Certainly a few steps below Buxton, but nobody is at that level.  
The frustration with Kepler from Twins fans has not come from his defense. Many point to a low batting average as a sign that Kepler has been an underwhelming hitter, but I do not believe that is the case. While not reaching the heights his batted ball data would suggest he is capable of, Kepler gives value in other ways at the plate. He borders on having both elite plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. This shows with Kepler ranking in the 88th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in BB% in 2022. He was also tied with Yordan Alvarez for 17th in BB/K rate among hitters with 400 plate appearances. 
Kepler could make some batted-ball adjustments as well. According to Statcast, in 2022, Kepler's ground ball% was 46.6% (league average 44.9%), a massive 8.9% jump from 37.7% in 2021. His flyball% dropped to 24.5%, down from 28.1% in 2021 (league average 23.1%), his lowest flyball% since 2017. As I'm sure you are familiar, Kepler is a very pull heavy hitter, ranking in the 74th percentile in pull% among hitters with 250 plate appearances in 2022 despite this being his lowest pull% since 2017. Unfortunately pulling ground balls is one of the least effective ways to get hits. In 2019, Kepler had his second-lowest career ground ball% at 35.9% and his highest career flyball% at 29.8%; if Kepler starts hitting the ball in the air again instead of on the ground, there may be a lot more room for improvement. 
I don't think Kepler should be a middle-of-the-order hitter, but that's what he has been for the last few years on the Twins. In part because of a career year in 2019 and in part due to necessity because of injuries. Throughout his Major League career, Kepler has taken over two-thirds of his plate appearances in one of the top 5 spots in the lineup despite being only a 101 wRC+ hitter. If Kepler is hitting seventh or eighth in the lineup, he is a much better fit. Even last season, a down year by almost all metrics, Kepler finished with a 95 wRC+, five percent worse than the league average. It is important to mention injuries got to him as well, as he put up a 116 wRC+ in the first half of the season and a 33 wRC+ in the second half, where he was playing much of it through foot and wrist injuries. Kepler can consistently put together quality at-bats and is very capable of hard contact; this makes for an ideal fit for a bench player who can play every day if (when) someone gets injured. 
I want to touch on a very underrated part of Kepler's game; his base running. Only once in his career has Kepler had a negative BsR season by Fangraphs, and it was in 2019 when he had his best season at the plate. I do think there is more base-stealing upside for Kepler. Although he only has 33 career stolen bases, hitting more toward the bottom of the lineup could make him more willing to run. He will not have hitters like Nelson Cruz or Carlos Correa hitting behind him, making the risk of stealing less penalizing. He does have 64th percentile sprint speed and stole ten bases in 2021. Under the right conditions, I think he has 20 SB potential. 
In totality, it seems that it is only a matter of time until Max Kepler is no longer a Twin. Still, it is worth considering the possibility of reducing his role and hanging onto him. For one, he is already under contract for 7 million, the same amount as A.J. Pollock received and only two million more than Andrew McCutchen. Kepler is a much better player than either of those two at this point in their careers. He has a team option for 10 million in 2024 as well. Kepler has been a remarkably consistent player year to year for the Twins, never having a season below 2.0 fWAR and never having a season below 93 wRC+. For reference, Nick Gordon impressed many people last year but only put up 1.5 fWAR in 2022. While frustrations have grown watching him hit in the middle of a lineup undeservingly, it's not fair to fault Kepler for that. If he can serve as a fourth outfielder and hit more toward the bottom of the lineup, I think Kepler still has a place on the Minnesota Twins this year and next. If they can land a good return for him, the front office will not hesitate to pull the trigger, but they shouldn't treat him as a salary dump. He isn't making very much, and he still has a skillset to help a team win games.