August J Gloop

Arraez went to first because it was the last hope of a position he wasn't a butcher at. Turns out he did pretty good at it and has upended the depth chart a little. The reason I'm in favor of trading him this offseason is because it was after an up year. His value is going to careen all over because he has limited extra base potential and isn't fast. MLB RN has Arraez as the 9th best 1B, which is pretty good, but also means he wouldn't be THAT hard to replace, since to be a top 1B you need power. https://www.mlb.com/stories/mlb-now-s-top-10-first-basemen-right-now Just Lopez seems like it's not worth the trouble, though. Now imagine some sort of 3 team deal that involves Arraez, Kep and 4 or 5 of your favorite prospects not named Royce Lewis (cuz he's hurt and Correa likes him) or Miranda (Correa adopted him) heading off to Pittsburgh and Miami, returning to the Twins: Cabrera, Luzardo and Bryan Reynolds. That would be a trade worth sending Arraez out for. Luis is good. He's just the most replaceable good player on the roster. But no sense in replacing him with someone only as good or even a little less so.

Polanco and it's not close.

I like it. Jo and Larnach can do a 50/50 until Lewis comes back.

And we've settled onto why it's best to trade him and let someone else deal with that instability. Unfortunately also why it will take more than him to get a big return.

I mean Arraez is only 25. But I understand my word choice has been confusing. We'll say that Arraez has potential to be a lot better.

Yep. You can't possibly think that people are clamoring to acquire Arraez based on the idea that 2022 was the end of the road up? Maybe we understand the concept of prospects a little differently. He's graduated off the MLB Pipeline list, sure, but he's still prospectively a great hitter. As in he's currently got one pretty good skill, and showed some potential for continued growth. What folx would be trading for is the projection that Arraez will keep adding OPS the way John Olerud or Mark Grace did. Otherwise, he's just not that valuable. His WAR outlook hinges on his ISO. Will it be .100+ or around .080? As you can see in his career, that's been the real difference maker. If he can make that .120-.130, he's a bonafide superstar hitter. Most guys need to get that closer to .3 to be nearly as good. But that's still in the realm of projection. Ergo, my statement that he's technically still a prospect.

Cutch would have been nice. I think his choice to sign with the Pirates for roughly the same money tells you where his competitive heart is at. He feels the end and wants to have a smooth transition to retirement. I don't fault him for that one bit. He's only played outside Pennsylvania 1 year, and it wasn't that much fun for him. I think it's a great way to celebrate a great career, one more year being loved up by your best fans. I will say that the Gallo thing is getting way too much angst off this crowd. Dude has mostly been a great hitter in his career. He takes an unorthodox approach, but for the most part it's worked. Sure 2 out of the last 3 seasons have been a bit crap, but who hasn't had some of the worst days of their lives the past 3 years? Sandwiched between those two dud years? a pretty great one. He was a 4 win player in 2021! Heck we got folks in here talkin like Cutch would be a better bet. Joey Gallo put up more WAR last year than Cutch. In fewer plate appearances. While posting career lows in almost every offensive category. It's been since 2017 that Cutch has posted 4 wins. To answer the headline's Q: Zero. The Twins needed Cutch exactly zero much. He'd have been a nice luxury.

Arraez is still technically a prospect. Teams trading for him will do so because they believe they can unlock some value via power or slotting him into a position that they have a real opening in. His trade fate was sealed when he couldn't play left field. He's miscast at first, even if the initial results were encouraging. The team has 3-4 guys floating around MLB-AAA who better fit the first base profile, starting with Kiriloff. The Twins have a better defender and likely pretty good hitter at every single position on the diamond, so Luis becomes a bit of a roster problem. Add in that the fans are attached to him, and it puts him in value limbo. It's clear that there are multiple teams who want him, so that's good. Hopefully it's taking a bit because there is a bidding war. When it's all said and done, Arraez should be headlining a nice pitching upgrade situation.

Showing confidence in their ability to help him rebuild, and have the head start on an extension if they like the results. It's an easy choice.

The Twins could get Sale for being willing to pay his contract. The only reason to send anyone back would be since you're gonna clear the roster spot anyway. Put a prospect in the deal and the Twins get one of the Sox best prospects or half off the contract.

The batters he's facing aren't that great, but he's getting strikeouts and keeping the ball in the yard. Good signs. Means he's healthy at least. potential to make a big difference

Cabrera and Luzardo would be the dream get for the Twins and definitely worth Lee as the central part of the package. I don't know the full package, but the Twins absolutely could build it. The rotation would be solid (with at least two , could go 6 deep at all times, with the other stating options taking turns at Spå Bullpën to keep them arms light. Rotation - 1 - Grey, 2 - Ryan, 3 - Luz, 4 - Cab, 5 - Maeda, 6 - Mahle I like the idea of moving your most talented starters to the middle of your rotation, because it maximizes their seasonal value. (Against an Ace you generally need the Ace to have a bad day anyway to win so why not burn the bad start against a shut out?) I don't really think the Twins Rotation can be all that optimized, since everyone is all kinda on the same basic above average level. Cab and Luz bring potential for #1, but their floor is still good for the Twins outlook. Bully would look something like this: Ober as SP 7, rotating in and pitching 5 innings frequently. Pagan as the DFA ready long guy. (Emilio has to pitch his way out of the doghouse in these low leverage innings) Thielbar, Moran, Jax, Alcala, Lopez and Splink at the back end. I would Sign Matt Moore and bring back Fulmer to beef the Bully up. That would mean a DFA for Pagan, and likely AAA for Moran (unless Alcala is still slow to recover). If a 5 Man is better, you could still do the rotating starter with Kenta and Mahle and Ober all recovering from tough health years. SWR, Louie, Blaze and Henriquez would all be doing their best to knock on the door.

Trade values don't exist in a vacuum. While BTV sees all teams as able to access the same pools of players, it's obviously not real life. The Marlins would be adding wins with that trade, and not subtracting much from their pitching potential. While the fish would technically be losing potential Win value, as it stands at leas some of their talent will be rotting at AAA, wasting their value entirely. And losing erodes talent, so Lop and Luz might be worth less by the deadline. But if the Marlins insisted, the Twins could toss in a prospect like Lee to get it over the top. Or Two if they don't want Arraez. Or they could take Rogers instead of Luzardo. That being said, I wasn't saying that's the only route. I'm just saying that the Twins extra bits would be sure fire starters for the Marlins, so a deal can be made there without really hampering the Twins pursuit of the ALC crown (and eventual playoff success).

Yes, but yet we could jettison all 4 of those guys and still feature 10 batters who are able to OPS+ well over 100. My point in the suggestion is that Miami is in a really bad place and the twins have enough knocking at the door to help them out with established big league bats. It's a good match for a trade.

It can barely be believed that Max would have been the Marlins 3rd best (OPS+) hitter last year. The Twins should be offering a little 'instant offense' package of Garlick, Kep, Gordon and Arraez. They could get Luzardo and one of Cabrera, Rogers or Lopez. That would be a pretty good deal for them, as they clearly don't have the cash to bring in decent hitters, and just sent away another contributor. The Twins would probably have to pick up most of the salary on that, but it could work. Miami might want to get a prospect, then they can't have Gordon.

Outfielders get hurt at a much lower rate than infielders. What's more likely is that a young man too eager to get on with his career exaggerated the progress of his rehab and was still vulnerable to reinjury while he was playing. (Or perhaps his first surgery was not sufficient). Lewis is fast and seems to have the bat speed to be a high OPS kind of player. He projects to be a rangy outfielder with a strong, accurate arm. It would help the Twins to get another long-term high end bat in the lineup. Moving him to a Left/Center/DH rotation with Bux and LHH LF could keep everybody fresh. What my point on Lee is that his projected hit tool is 100% valuable right now, but it's just as likely to not be that in actual practice. If good pitchers are available for him, do it. Not shop him to anyone for anything. If I say Alacantarra and Kim N says Lee, I'm still talking is my point. If he gets to AA and ops 1.002, I say good for you, kid and live with it. Hopefully Alcantarra is winning another cy young.

I'm not trying to say he sucks. I'm trying to say that like most of 'the best college hitters in the draft' he will not likely be a great MLB hitter, just an ok/good one. But right now if he can be the center piece of a trade for a controllable top flight starter, it must be done. If he was gonna stick at short, Id say keep him, but he ain't.

Lee strikes me as a perfect trade candidate. Get him out while he still seems like a prospect who could center in a top level pitching trade. I'm pretty sure AA will quickly disabuse folks of that notion. He's likely to be a serviceable major leaguer, but not one you'd trade for Sandy Alcantara.

Sure if we want to play that game we also need to acknowledge the 'female judge's'** track record of publishing papers suggesting the real problem with abuse are the victim advocates. Or her history of reuniting children with their abusive fathers even after they fled. In fact the entire basis of her decision to not award the restraining order seemed to be was that once consent is granted, it couldn't be taken away. Including when she had been rendered unconcious. That judge is Dianna Gould-Saltman https://ballotpedia.org/Dianna_Gould-Saltman As you can see she has not faced a general election in over 13 years. Her 'thoughts' about victim advocacy and therapists: https://www.lyngreenbergphd.com/2022/Division_43_Handouts/7. Gould-Saltman, 2021.pdf Here she is advocating a 14 year old be forced to visit her father https://www.avvo.com/legal-answers/can-my-14-year-old-daughter-say-no-to-her-father-s-57328.html#! Here is a twitter account mentioning a decicison of hers this winter: https://twitter.com/unmaskthenarc/status/1606878880471683072 All in all this judge isn't much concerned about putting women in harms way around men. Bauer's representation did good to get the restraining order decision in front of this judge. They knew the DA was the kind of weasel who wold use the dismissal of it as a way to avoid trying to prosecute a high profile case that would 100% end up at appeal. **It's always a bad look when one tries to defend the patriarchy by pointing out that a woman in moderate power acted to protect it.

Let's not forget the most important part. He's gotten away with sexual violence publicly 3 times now. He will do it again. Any team that signs him will be 100% on the hook for whatever this serial abuser does next. And his defense next time he beats a woman will be that she consented to it by being on the planet with him. And a bunch of creep-os will ask what the woman was wearing or did she make flirty overtures to him. We do not need this man in Minnesota. I mean the state generally, but that would cover the team, too.

Exactly. I think it should speak volumes that there's an (I assume) male identifying person in this thread who asterisked out the word crap, but is forgiving of non-consensual sexual activity. Women see this kind of inconsistency in their every day lives and don't want baseball to wave a huge sign in their face that for the men in their lives winning is more important than their safety. It would be a PR disaster if he were a guaranteed CY-Young candidate, let alone the marginal upgrade he is likely to be 3 years after his last season of good play. As to the bananas stuff about he didn't do a crime because he didn't get charged, wut? Is it really your position that 3 women and at least two journalists made stuff up? Do some reading on how hard it is to convict obvious rapists before you cling to the idea that something as thoroughly vetted as this situation is a simple 'he said / she said'.

He did that to tell his manager to get stuffed, though. Not to celebrate anything, but to indicate his manager was a moron for coming to get him. That's exactly the opposite of celebrating a home run.

Athletes are a funny bunch. Insane confidence, but really bad at math and downright cowardly when it comes to guaranteed money. I know that 315 >>>>> 285 but when you look at simple to calculate things like inflation and compound interest, the value CC tossed aside in the early years of the SFG / Mets deals vs the Twins deal is crazy. If CC had made an basically risk free 'gamble' on himself and played the 70 mil out through 24, he'd be hitting the market before his age 30 season. This while 3-4 Megadeals probably still look good and are still en vogue. He'd have literally no trouble getting the same 10 year deal the Twins offered for a total of 390 Million dollars for the same 12 years he was signing up for with the Mets. With a much bigger chunk up front. Meanwhile He's got such a better shot at being a 'face of baseball' in a good way playing for the Twins. The only way he stands out in NYM / SFG is if his deal goes to hell. (Irony). Sure the other deal was Guaranteed, but what kind of risk does he really have? Was he leveraged to a third world dictator? If he craps out in the next two years, he's only earned 105 Million for two years of work, and never has to worry. These cats get so much bad advice. It's like they all hire financial advisors from their agents offices. Or they sign deals where their agents get paid in the first year of the contract or something (cuz money now is worth like 20% more today than it is in 10 years)

Correa's leg is clearly a lot worse than he wants people to know. He's bombed two physicals and wouldn't let the Twins look at the Giants finding before making any further offers. At this point they should let the Mets have him. Seems likely this will be one of the worst offseasons in MLB history as far as value per dollar spent. Rodon? Bust. Xander? 2-3 good years, then fizzle. Turner, will be OK throughout, lots of sexy slides, but never really worth the contract. Swanson? Jason Heyward will look good in comparison. Correa might still end up being the best value, if someone can get him to hop back on those short deals.

If the Twins sign Bauer I will literally never watch them until every single person who signed off on it is gone from the organization. I will not watch the games the Twins play against any team that rosters him, even when he's not playing.