Hunter McCall

The Twins simply will not be able to fill the void left by Max Kepler if he is traded. Unless they have an offer that improves another area of need significantly, they should keep Kepler around. You're absolutely right.

Absolutely agree!

Yes, that was a recent report that I saw as well (actually after I wrote this). That being said, I suppose that makes the thought of trading Kepler more scary because it leaves Larnach as the only possible option. Again, if the price is right I'm all for trading Kepler, I just think the return is more likely to be underwhelming than anything.

I agree with you on almost everything. I personally think that with the changes he made at the plate he can absolutely replicate his 2023 production and his advanced metrics are very promising.

But you won't be able to hide Larnach at the plate and moving Kirilloff creates a void at first base. This is why, unless the return provides substantial help for the 2024 team, I think they should stick with Kepler.

Agreed. If that's the return then I think the Twins should absolutely stick with Kepler.

If Seattle was willing to give one of their starting pitchers for Kepler and Polanco, I am absolutely all in. The purpose here was more to reiterate that unless they have a trade that makes the team better, don't just sell him for a couple prospects because he is in a contract year. If there's a "help me help you" type trade that presents itself with a team like Seattle then I'd be all for it.

Agreed that if they were to trade Kepler they should have a better option in mind than the options that are currently in house.

Where would they find a better option?

Correct, but the Twins likely won’t get a return that will make the 2024 team better which I think should be the goal. Kepler likely won’t bring in an arm that will make the rotation much better and he certainly won’t bring in a corner outfielder better than himself. So my point is, they shouldn’t trade him just to trade him.

I personally never wanted him dfa’d but you’re right there were many people calling for it!

I already wrote an article about trading Brooks Lee. I think if you want to get a big return, that’s your best option. You’re right though though, it’ll be much easier to replace an infielder than Kepler!

Exactly. The infield has the depth to offset trading someone like Polanco. The outfield can’t do the same if they lose Kepler.

Exactly my thought. If the Twins want to move one of the vets, Polanco should be moved before Kepler. Kepler would be next to impossible to replace for a similar price.

The Twins have the depth to replace some players, but replacing Max Kepler would be difficult. They would be wiser to ride out his contract and explore other right-field options next offseason. Image courtesy of © John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports Max Kepler has had his ups and downs with the Twins since joining the team in 2016. He appeared to break out in 2019, clubbing 36 home runs for the Bomba Squad while playing excellent defense. In the years that followed, while he remained a great defender, his production at the plate fell off, with his OPS dropping every year before hitting a career-low .666 in 2022. With trade rumors swirling throughout the 2023 offseason, no one’s seat was hotter last year than Kepler’s. In need of a productive season, he answered the bell with his best year since the juiced-ball 2019 season. Kepler hit 24 home runs, with an .816 OPS and a 121 OPS+. On top of that, his hitting metrics at Baseball Savant backed his production with a page filled with red. Kepler is due to become a free agent after the 2024 season. With the team looking to cut payroll, he has been at the center of many trade rumors, but moving him might be a mistake. Set to make a team-friendly $10 million in the final year of his team-friendly contract with the Twins, he's likely to be a bargain. According to FanGraphs, Kepler was worth $21 million in 2023, when he produced 2.6 fWAR. That kind of production will be tough to replace, especially when the Twins don’t have the guys to replicate it. As the roster stands now, if the Twins were to dump Kepler, their options to fill the two corner outfield spots are Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff. Wallner will get a chance to hold down one spot after his breakout season, so that leaves Kirilloff and Larnach as options to fill the hole created by trading Kepler. They could shuffle around and move Royce Lewis to the outfield or make Willi Castro an everyday outfielder, but I don’t see those as credible everyday fits for a corner spot. Austin Martin is also possible, but I see this as the least likely option, due to his inexperience and the reticence the Twins will surely feel to limit his athleticism in a full-time corner outfield spot. If the Twins elected to trade Kepler and move Kirilloff to the outfield, a hole would not be filled but merely moved. The Twins already need a right-handed platoon bat to pair with Kirilloff at first base, but moving him would ensure the need to add a full-time first baseman and a right-handed platoon bat in the outfield. On top of that, Kirilloff has been a poor defender in the outfield over his career, providing -5 Outs Above Average and -4 Runs Above Average in his two years of outfield playing time, according to Statcast. He has also been a bad defender at first base, but moving him to the outfield would result in a significant degradation in outfield defense compared to Kepler’s 4 OAA and RAA in 2023 (he had 11 and 10, respectively, in 2022). Larnach has had moments wherein he looks like a potential All-Star for the Twins. Those moments, however, have been few and far between. Larnach is a better defensive outfielder than Kirilloff, but he hasn’t provided the value Kepler does on either side of the ball. Larnach strikes out 34 percent of the time at the plate and has struggled to hit breaking and offspeed pitches. In 2023, Larnach had a 50.9% whiff rate against breaking balls and 46.5% against offspeed stuff. Until he gets that corrected, he will continue to struggle in the major leagues. He’s still young and has time to improve on both sides of the ball, but right now, Larnach would be a significant downgrade from Kepler. It's also worth noting the adjustments Kepler made at the plate in 2023. In previous years, he took an approach that sacrificed hard contact in exchange for a lower strikeout rate. For this reason, Kepler's BABIP was extremely low. He mishit a lot of balls, either on the ground or straight up in the air, rather than accept a whiff in pursuit of more solidly barreling it. While his strikeout rate sat at 14.8 percent in 2022, his BABIP sat at only .249, which was actually up from his .225 BABIP in 2021. Kepler's shift in focus this season resulted in his hard-hit percentage spiking from 39.9% to 47.9%. While his strikeout rate increased to 21.6%, his BABIP jumped 40 points, to .288. Still in the prime of his career at just 31 years old, if Kepler can sustain this approach, the Twins could benefit significantly in 2024 and tag him with a qualifying offer on his way out the door. What are your thoughts? Should the Twins trade Max Kepler? If so, how would you replace him? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins! View full article

Agreed, I think at least one goes, I can see the personal preference for either!

Yes, Martin must show he belongs! He has to build off his great end to 2023.

I too like Farmer, but still prefer Polanco just because of his ability at the plate. He's such a professional hitter who has been a staple in the Twins lineup for so long. I would completely understand trading him and am open to it, but if you made me choose I would personally lean Polanco. I understand why you prefer Farmer though!

That's my biggest question with Castro. Can he repeat? I hope so, but the advanced metrics are a little scary. If he can be a .700 OPS hitter and still provide steals and defense I'll take it, he just can't fall off the face of the Earth at the plate.

Well said! Thank you for your thoughts!

I agree. Could be multiple guys throughout the year. Hopefully they can all contribute!

There's a lot to get hammered out and the roles will become for clear as we approach the season. What do they do with Farmer and Polanco? Are they traded? Do they add anyone? There will certainly be shuffling to go around, but I think you raise good points.

It's so perfect

This is hands down the funniest thing I've ever read on this site.