Alex Boxwell

I want to start off this entry by saying that I am no writer. I joined Twins Daily so that I could follow the blog of a life-long friend of mine, who is much more talented than I. Shout out to Alex Boxwell, former Gopher outfielder and the next Ernest Hemmingway (follow his blog and become enlightened).
Maybe it’s the holidays being around the corner or the fact that I am snowed in and bored, but after what is appearing to be the mundane end to what could have (and should have?) been a historic FA signing period for the Minnesota Twins, I felt the need to find some positives and reflect on why I should continue to give my time to a team I follow with a passion. As well as why I should keep up with a sport that appears to be dying.
The answer is a seemingly strange one and stems from the origins of how I became interested in baseball as a kid. Growing up I was super into all the nerdy things. Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, comic books, video games, you name it. Then I received MVP Baseball 2005 (Manny cover) as a gift on my 10th birthday. I had zero interest in sports at this time, but my best friend (RIP Brandyn) insisted that I try it so I caved and began to play. It was the greatest gift a nerd could receive. The in-depth simulation, the statistics, the attention to detail, stadium creation, owner mode, everything about that game kept me glued to my computer screen. That game is literally how I became interested in baseball. I was horribly unathletic but I decided to sign up for Little League the following Spring. I was terrible, I mean TERRIBLE, unwatchable even for an 11-year-old. Each year I managed to get a bit better and through sheer love of the game I willed myself onto the varsity baseball team my junior year of High School (as a PO obviously, hitting is hard). As I began to spend more time with skilled athletes, the personalities of the people I spent my time with changed drastically, and the true beauty of baseball revealed itself. It became a wonderful bridge between nerdom and sports culture.
As I have gotten older, I have realized I am far from alone in experiencing this ‘world between worlds,’ something about baseball fascinates nerds unlike any other sport. Maybe it’s the heavy influence of statistics, maybe it’s the fact that you don’t need to be a world class athlete to play it, who knows, but there is no denying that nerds love baseball. Just look at Dungeons and Dragons, an amazing game I suggest everyone tries at least once in their life. That game, which I think most people would consider to be the first game that used character stat sheets and involved freedom of choice, came out in 1974. Strat-O-Matic, a baseball simulation game using character sheets, statistics and dice rolling like that of D&D, came out in 1961. That is 13 years prior...
I have played D&D almost every Tuesday for the last 6 years and I can tell you that anyone watching such a game without having played, is going to fall asleep. However, that does not mean there isn’t anything going on. It’s just a heavily nuanced world filled with strategy, branching narratives, statistics, probability and larger than life characters.
Look at baseball now, every moment has nuance and complexity that leads to anticipation of 1000 different outcomes. I understand there aren’t seven-foot-tall specimens flying around dunking on each other, or 250-pound dudes colliding in full pads, but the game is more complex than that. A matchup between the likes of Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer is beyond interesting. Every pitch something changes. What pitch was thrown? Where was it thrown? How has the hitter been approached by the league? How has the hitter been approached by the specific pitcher? Are there runners on base? What’s the score? What inning is it? All of this can change with every pitch and the mental warfare between hitter and pitcher is absolutely fascinating.
I read an article a while back that made a similar connection between D&D, nerdom and baseball. They made the point that it would be amazing to bring together a D&D party in full cosplay and a group of hardcore baseball fans in team attire, face paint, foam fingers and all. I found this to be hilarious, and I imagine the look on their faces when they realize how remarkably similar they are, would be priceless.
At the end of the day, I will always follow the Minnesota Twins and baseball as a whole. It is a beautifully complex game that bridges two wonderfully unique yet similar worlds. At times it feels like David vs Goliath for both the franchise among the league, and baseball among the other major sports, which are often seen as more action oriented and ‘exciting.’ Hopefully MLB can find a way to market the game to the next generation better so it doesn’t go belly up. It’s scary to think of the 11-year-old kid who almost never got to experience the immersive culture and beauty of baseball. It would have been a damn shame if the game had never reached me. Friendships that would never have been made, memories lost and a passion left undiscovered. With the game in its current state, that may have been my reality.

Seems like the dumbest question ever but it’s a great place to start. What does the World Series champion do that we don’t? 
 
Something I love to reference when it comes to the Twins is the “dark years”. It was those years that ruined the pinstripe cream uniforms. I can’t look at those uniforms without thinking about how much of a disaster this organization was from 2011-2016. We are feeling the effects of those decisions right now, bad scouting, and a lukewarm feeling toward competing or rebuilding. There was no clear plan- we showed up to the offseason/winter meetings like I show up to Taco Bell at 2 am: Unprepared, unorganized, and hoping someone else makes the decision for me. 
 
In that ‘11-’16 window, we signed Ricky Nolasco, ByungHo Park, Carl Pavano, Ryan Doumit, Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll, Phil Hughes, Kevin Correia, Kurt Suzuki, Mike Pelfrey, and Torii Hunter. As you can see some of these contracts were more productive than others. I highlight these signings because it shows how insanely random the old regime was. Are we rebuilding? Are we signing proven veterans to compete? I don’t think anyone knew. Pair that with poor scouting and bringing in first-round picks- Alex Wimmers, Levi Michael, Travis Harrison (supplemental- didn’t sign), Hudson Boyd (supplemental- didn’t sign), Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, Luke Bard, Kohl Stewart, Nick Gordon, Tyler Jay. Of those 10 picks (4 being top 5 picks), it is obvious which 3 of those picks have even scratched the surface of their ability in that time.  Hindsight is always 20/20 but it’s a tough look.
 
Let us look at the Houston Astros who had a very similar window of poor talent and some high picks, but they committed to being terrible for a couple of years. There was no doubt from 2010-2014 the Astros were bought in on a rebuild and getting young talent in the door. The greatest separator between these two teams is organizational direction and development. That’s it. Over those drafts, their 1st round picks were Delino DeShields Jr., Mike Foltynewicz, Michael Kvasnicka (go gophers), George Springer, Carlos Correa, Mark Appel, Brady Aiken, and Alex Bregman. They had 5 of 8 first-round picks become players of value at the MLB level even for a flash in the pan. Foltynewicz got them Evan Gattis who was a big-time offensive producer as a catcher and a key piece in their clubhouse for the ’17 World Series run. Brady Aiken and Mark Appel were well known… no need to feed a fed horse. DeShields was let go in the rule 5 and was then part of the Emmanuel Clase to Cleveland trade that netted the Rangers Corey Kluber… whoops.  
 
We all can see the Astros are flush with talent in 2022 but their decisions as a front office didn’t always seem like a slam dunk. They offered Correa what was a fair contract at the time and said OK bye when he declined. They shed one tear for their franchise shortstop and in their next breath, won a World Series. They paid Altuve and Verlander a combined 54 million and after that their next highest-paid player was McCullers at just shy of 16 million. The Altuve contract is 7 years 163 million, which expires in 2024 at his age 34 season. Right when most players start dramatically losing value, especially as a middle infielder. Alex Bregman's salary was 11 million and will bump up starting this year to 28.5 million for this year and next then he is also a free agent at 32. The money that is spent is calculated and our front office follows a similar model. The moves the Twins are making may not be popular but they will likely prove to be wise. The substantial difference is how we operated 10-12 years ago. We did not commit to being terrible or great, we wavered between bad and decent, with poor player development.   
 
The extreme end of the spectrum is the Dodgers. They have been riding a huge payroll and trading for and locking up every team’s team’s favorite player for what feels like the last decade. People love to call this BS that they just go and buy the best players. That’s not entirely true, they scout and identify talent better than any other team in the league. They have the freedom with their budget, but they typically trade for players using the internal talent they have acquired in the draft or internationally. The Angels throw money around and have given out comical contracts, remember the Marlins in 2012 Marlins? AKA- Jose Reyes and the boys. We all thought they bought and sold their way to being relevant again and that was a disaster. You can’t just throw money at organizations and expect the roster to get better because those players are the best at that time. You must scout active players better than that and that’s why the Dodgers are different and will continue to be different. 
 
It was not that long ago the Twins were lost. We have a palatable direction now. We trust in what our scouting department is giving us. We are not going to mortgage our future on panic-signing dudes just to meet some ambiguous spending quota. I’m guilty as anyone of thinking the roster stinks but that is an illusion created by the 2022 second half. The MLB roster is good, this roster will challenge Cleveland in its current state. The roster was comically beaten down by injury. Our IL last year could have competed for the Central, remember that conversation?  
 
Paying a free agent, specifically a shortstop, for 10+ years is one of the stupidest things you can do. We have seen, hammer pants, trickle-down economics, Twix declaring to have a left and a right, people taking Elon Musk seriously, and even friends and family ordering a large french fry with a diet coke… Paying a shortstop 30 million when he’s 40 years old is dumber than all those things. There are much better uses of the US dollar for every franchise. Not many teams are winning titles with those contracts on their roster from the FA market. Our biggest problem is licking our wounds from the previous regime. I’m far from ready to call for anyone’s head in the front office. The bandwagon has bucked some people off, but I would encourage everyone to hang on because the Twins are headed in the right direction. We are just behind on the timeline of other well-run organizations but not too far to where we can’t compete.
 

To say Joey Gallo was bad last year would be like saying a turd isn't particularly tasty... it hardly describes the full truth. He hit .160 with 19 homers and a .638 OPS. Not to mention the 163 punch-outs in 410 plate appearances, that's just shy of a 40% strike-out rate. Absurd. His defense took a step back as well last year but inconsistent playing time can do that to an outfielder in terms of in-game jumps. On the surface, this sign makes little to no sense with the roster in its current state and if you don't believe in Joey Gallo as a player, the fact that he could improve, and if deployed properly that he is a productive player. HOWEVER, I would now like to present to you the Max Kepler situation
I love Max Kepler, as a young player I thought he was a candidate to grow into a player to hit .275-.300, threaten 30 jacks a year and play very good defense. You can't use a scouting report from 2014 to evaluate your talent, you can't think emotionally as a front office. You have to call a spade a spade. Max Kepler has had a combined OPS of .692 over the last two seasons (936 plate appearances) that's below the league average even for last year in a historically terrible year for offense (in '21 league average was .728). OPS is the easiest way to see how good a hitter is, if you want one statistic to rule them all... that is it. Kepler does not lift the ball well and that is fine but it has seriously limited his offensive ceiling and disbanding the shift is not going to be the sole reason to raise his batting average, he flat-out has to play better. The bottom line is he is a player that had an outlier season and has yet to improve in 8 seasons. 
Between Gallo and Kepler if you look at OPS, advantage Gallo. Even with Kepler having a clunker season last year Gallo was not far behind (.638 vs .666). I get Gallo strikes out way more than anyone in the world at the pro level but he could be a great fit. A lineup can only suffer so many Ks before it becomes wildly unproductive and frustrating regardless of OPS or whatever positive statistic they can provide. It's also a one-year deal, if the guy stinks they aren't going to play him there is hardly any risk. The people that say 'Wallner could do what Gallo does', it's a fair point but do you honestly think the scouting department didn't have that conversation? They clearly grade Gallo as a better player at this moment and that's fine. It's one year and Wallner could win the job and Gallo can ride pine all year, we are not married to him in any way shape, or form.
All this being said, with the addition of Gallo I become very hesitant to trade Arraez. With a guy like Gallo, the protection you need in the lineup for him is a player like Arraez. Strikeouts are bad, I hate seeing a guy punch out with less than two outs and a guy on 3rd more than anyone. I truly believe a lineup has a breaking point for how many strikeouts it can take before it becomes unproductive but I'll let some guy who has never played baseball find that statistic. A lineup can still be elite with Joey Gallo in it but other hitters in the lineup need to have some bat-to-ball skill. 
It's a long walk for a short drink of water but I lean towards liking the Gallo signing, we will have to use our personnel properly or he needs to improve dramatically. You will need to scheme your lineup around him, having Gallo hit 9th and Arraez hit leadoff would be how you would have to write it. Gallo and Kepler were both terrible last year, both will likely not be Twins in '24. I think the lineup has more potential with Gallo but if you have potential that just means you haven't done s**t yet. Regardless if your rightfielder is Kepler or Gallo they both need to take a considerable step forward from their recent performance. I think everyone is well within their right to be critical of this signing but you can't honestly say this signing isn't steeped in short-term potential. Sadly, more potential than it would've had with my guy Max Kepler.

To say Joey Gallo was bad last year would be like saying a turd isn't particularly tasty... it hardly describes the full truth. He hit .160 with 19 homers and a .638 OPS. Not to mention the 163 punch-outs in 410 plate appearances, that's just shy of a 40% strike-out rate. Absurd. His defense took a step back as well last year but inconsistent playing time can do that to an outfielder in terms of in-game jumps. On the surface, this sign makes little to no sense with the roster in its current state and if you don't believe in Joey Gallo as a player, the fact that he could improve, and if deployed properly that he is a productive player. HOWEVER, I would now like to present to you the Max Kepler situation
I love Max Kepler, as a young player I thought he was a candidate to grow into a player to hit .275-.300, threaten 30 jacks a year and play very good defense. You can't use a scouting report from 2014 to evaluate your talent, you can't think emotionally as a front office. You have to call a spade a spade. Max Kepler has had a combined OPS of .692 over the last two seasons (936 plate appearances) that's below the league average even for last year in a historically terrible year for offense (in '21 league average was .728). OPS is the easiest way to see how good a hitter is, if you want one statistic to rule them all... that is it. Kepler does not lift the ball well and that is fine but it has seriously limited his offensive ceiling and disbanding the shift is not going to be the sole reason to raise his batting average, he flat-out has to play better. The bottom line is he is a player that had an outlier season and has yet to improve in 8 seasons. 
Between Gallo and Kepler if you look at OPS, advantage Gallo. Even with Kepler having a clunker season last year Gallo was not far behind (.638 vs .666). I get Gallo strikes out way more than anyone in the world at the pro level but he could be a great fit. A lineup can only suffer so many Ks before it becomes wildly unproductive and frustrating regardless of OPS or whatever positive statistic they can provide. It's also a one-year deal, if the guy stinks they aren't going to play him there is hardly any risk. The people that say 'Wallner could do what Gallo does', it's a fair point but do you honestly think the scouting department didn't have that conversation? They clearly grade Gallo as a better player at this moment and that's fine. It's one year and Wallner could win the job and Gallo can ride pine all year, we are not married to him in any way shape, or form.
All this being said, with the addition of Gallo I become very hesitant to trade Arraez. With a guy like Gallo, the protection you need in the lineup for him is a player like Arraez. Strikeouts are bad, I hate seeing a guy punch out with less than two outs and a guy on 3rd more than anyone. I truly believe a lineup has a breaking point for how many strikeouts it can take before it becomes unproductive but I'll let some guy who has never played baseball find that statistic. A lineup can still be elite with Joey Gallo in it but other hitters in the lineup need to have some bat-to-ball skill. 
It's a long walk for a short drink of water but I lean towards liking the Gallo signing, we will have to use our personnel properly or he needs to improve dramatically. You will need to scheme your lineup around him, having Gallo hit 9th and Arraez hit leadoff would be how you would have to write it. Gallo and Kepler were both terrible last year, both will likely not be Twins in '24. I think the lineup has more potential with Gallo but if you have potential that just means you haven't done s**t yet. Regardless if your rightfielder is Kepler or Gallo they both need to take a considerable step forward from their recent performance. I think everyone is well within their right to be critical of this signing but you can't honestly say this signing isn't steeped in short-term potential. Sadly, more potential than it would've had with my guy Max Kepler.

To say Joey Gallo was bad last year would be like saying a turd isn't particularly tasty... it hardly describes the full truth. He hit .160 with 19 homers and a .638 OPS. Not to mention the 163 punch-outs in 410 plate appearances, that's just shy of a 40% strike-out rate. Absurd. His defense took a step back as well last year but inconsistent playing time can do that to an outfielder in terms of in-game jumps. On the surface, this sign makes little to no sense with the roster in its current state and if you don't believe in Joey Gallo as a player, the fact that he could improve, and if deployed properly that he is a productive player. HOWEVER, I would now like to present to you the Max Kepler situation
I love Max Kepler, as a young player I thought he was a candidate to grow into a player to hit .275-.300, threaten 30 jacks a year and play very good defense. You can't use a scouting report from 2014 to evaluate your talent, you can't think emotionally as a front office. You have to call a spade a spade. Max Kepler has had a combined OPS of .692 over the last two seasons (936 plate appearances) that's below the league average even for last year in a historically terrible year for offense (in '21 league average was .728). OPS is the easiest way to see how good a hitter is, if you want one statistic to rule them all... that is it. Kepler does not lift the ball well and that is fine but it has seriously limited his offensive ceiling and disbanding the shift is not going to be the sole reason to raise his batting average, he flat-out has to play better. The bottom line is he is a player that had an outlier season and has yet to improve in 8 seasons. 
Between Gallo and Kepler if you look at OPS, advantage Gallo. Even with Kepler having a clunker season last year Gallo was not far behind (.638 vs .666). I get Gallo strikes out way more than anyone in the world at the pro level but he could be a great fit. A lineup can only suffer so many Ks before it becomes wildly unproductive and frustrating regardless of OPS or whatever positive statistic they can provide. It's also a one-year deal, if the guy stinks they aren't going to play him there is hardly any risk. The people that say 'Wallner could do what Gallo does', it's a fair point but do you honestly think the scouting department didn't have that conversation? They clearly grade Gallo as a better player at this moment and that's fine. It's one year and Wallner could win the job and Gallo can ride pine all year, we are not married to him in any way shape, or form.
All this being said, with the addition of Gallo I become very hesitant to trade Arraez. With a guy like Gallo, the protection you need in the lineup for him is a player like Arraez. Strikeouts are bad, I hate seeing a guy punch out with less than two outs and a guy on 3rd more than anyone. I truly believe a lineup has a breaking point for how many strikeouts it can take before it becomes unproductive but I'll let some guy who has never played baseball find that statistic. A lineup can still be elite with Joey Gallo in it but other hitters in the lineup need to have some bat-to-ball skill. 
It's a long walk for a short drink of water but I lean towards liking the Gallo signing, we will have to use our personnel properly or he needs to improve dramatically. You will need to scheme your lineup around him, having Gallo hit 9th and Arraez hit leadoff would be how you would have to write it. Gallo and Kepler were both terrible last year, both will likely not be Twins in '24. I think the lineup has more potential with Gallo but if you have potential that just means you haven't done s**t yet. Regardless if your rightfielder is Kepler or Gallo they both need to take a considerable step forward from their recent performance. I think everyone is well within their right to be critical of this signing but you can't honestly say this signing isn't steeped in short-term potential. Sadly, more potential than it would've had with my guy Max Kepler.

As the offseason has unfolded I’ve been softening my stance on the Twins making a push for Dansby Swanson. As a shortstop and leader in the clubhouse, sometimes the best ability is availability. He has missed two games in the last three years which is WILD with how players are managed in Major League Baseball. 
 
Statistically, with Correa landing in potentially the worst hitter’s yard in baseball I would put money on Dansby having a better offensive season than Carlos Correa. Correa is the best defensive shortstop in baseball until proven otherwise. Dansby Swanson is an excellent defender, and it would be the slightest drop off in comparison to Correa. If you just look at the back of their baseball cards, over the last three years you can make the argument Swanson is the pick with more RBI and homers. Now, the OPS and career WAR tell us Correa is a better hitter and player overall, but the argument can be had.
 
When you factor in that Swanson could be snatched up for less than 20 million… now I’m listening. If you can bump down the years compared to the other shortstops, then boost the average annual value (AAV), 7 years at 145 million you get a proven shortstop leaning towards elite defense, 25-28 HR pop, .260-.275 average, championship pedigree, and potentially the best head of hair in baseball. 
 
He’s not Correa and he will not bring the electricity, but not many do. He will hurt the wallet much less but the gap between Correa and Swanson is much smaller than we think. What he lacks in flair and big-name draw he makes up for in being the most reliable shortstop in baseball over the last three years. If ownership is not willing to break out of its budget shell, then this contract and this player makes a ton of sense. Rodon does not want to play in Minnesota, but we can push AAV on him because of a deal like this with Swanson and make it competitive. I was totally averse to signing Swanson at the beginning of the off-season, but I think he makes a ton of sense for a team that can’t stay healthy and doesn’t want to bend the knee on AAV or years.

As the offseason has unfolded I’ve been softening my stance on the Twins making a push for Dansby Swanson. As a shortstop and leader in the clubhouse, sometimes the best ability is availability. He has missed two games in the last three years which is WILD with how players are managed in Major League Baseball. 
 
Statistically, with Correa landing in potentially the worst hitter’s yard in baseball I would put money on Dansby having a better offensive season than Carlos Correa. Correa is the best defensive shortstop in baseball until proven otherwise. Dansby Swanson is an excellent defender, and it would be the slightest drop off in comparison to Correa. If you just look at the back of their baseball cards, over the last three years you can make the argument Swanson is the pick with more RBI and homers. Now, the OPS and career WAR tell us Correa is a better hitter and player overall, but the argument can be had.
 
When you factor in that Swanson could be snatched up for less than 20 million… now I’m listening. If you can bump down the years compared to the other shortstops, then boost the average annual value (AAV), 7 years at 145 million you get a proven shortstop leaning towards elite defense, 25-28 HR pop, .260-.275 average, championship pedigree, and potentially the best head of hair in baseball. 
 
He’s not Correa and he will not bring the electricity, but not many do. He will hurt the wallet much less but the gap between Correa and Swanson is much smaller than we think. What he lacks in flair and big-name draw he makes up for in being the most reliable shortstop in baseball over the last three years. If ownership is not willing to break out of its budget shell, then this contract and this player makes a ton of sense. Rodon does not want to play in Minnesota, but we can push AAV on him because of a deal like this with Swanson and make it competitive. I was totally averse to signing Swanson at the beginning of the off-season, but I think he makes a ton of sense for a team that can’t stay healthy and doesn’t want to bend the knee on AAV or years.

Some of the best advice you will ever get- just because you can doesn't mean you should. Is it disappointing to see a great talent go elsewhere ABSOLUTELY. For the the long term health of the franchise is it for the best? Probably. A Shortstop whose value primarily comes from his defense will not age well. Paying Carlos Correa 27+ Million in 2032 is going to leave an ache similar to me taking down 7 cups of eggnog at the company holiday party.
A huge piece no one seems to want to ever mention about Carlos Correa is that he has played a limited amount of baseball for someone to feel comfortable about his longevity. He has played more than 110 games three times in 7 attempts (not including COVID year). That number is not going to improve with age. I'm not overly heartbroken over this. The money will not evaporate, there are other more responsible ways to acquire talent. Prime Correa has a handful of good/great years to come and his offense will suffer in the coming years, only Barry Lamar can stroke even 30 big boys at AT&T (this is the correct name of that field, I won't hear otherwise). 
All I would like to do is to urge our Twins faithful to not be so shortsighted. We will pivot, we will compete. Like all our wise elders have told us... Just because you can doesn't mean you should. Buying a Ferrari and having to park it outside is stupid- we need more talent on the roster and this regime has proven it will spend, it will develop and it will be creative. It's a tough night in the Twin Cities but we will be ok, we swam with the sharks and survived and I'm confident we will do it again.