Greggory Masterson

The unprompted explanation about why he doesn’t have a smartphone in the middle of discussing the trade is tremendous

You know what, you’re right, that is a FA board. They only discussed the draft in the book. When I googled it I thought “this seems small for a draft board, dang it Hollywood.” it’s a tough decision, but Freight Train’s discerning eye at the plate is just too good to pass up.

This blog is written under the assumption that MLB teams with a robust amateur scouting system working hand-in-hand with a competent player development system will draft players better than a random guess or Keith Law's prospect rankings. You have been warned. In the first year of the MLB Draft Lottery, your Minnesota Twins were the greatest beneficiaries of the new system, moving from Pick 13 to Pick 5. Although draft order in MLB does not matter nearly as much as in other major sports, even the most cynical of observers can recognize the value of having the fifth choice in the draft over the thirteenth. Many times, the first handful of picks is somewhat predetermined, give or take. There are some years, like in 2010 in which there is a consensus #1 overall pick (Bryce Harper). However, in other years, such as 2022, there are a cluster of players who could reasonably be viewed as the best player in the draft (Jackson Holliday, Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson, Elijah Green, Brooks Lee) before a wide gap and the rest of the top 10. In years like that, teams in the top 5 can reasonably be assured that they will have a pick from the cream of the crop. Even the #5 pick can rest easy knowing that they will be able to draft an instant top 50 prospect. However, the MLB Draft is not nearly so clean. In 2022, the Twins had the good fortune of three teams ahead of them drafting players outside of that group in pitchers Kumar Rocker, Jacob Berry, and Cade Horton. Some may say, "See! They didn't need a top 5 pick to get a top 5 player!" Alternatively, imagine a scenario in which the Twins had the 9th pick. I'm personally not confident that Lee would have fallen another spot to land with the Twins. There are exceptions to this line of thinking. Perhaps the Twins were deadset on picking another prospect because of their scouting, convinced that they had found a player overlooked by other teams. The Rangers clearly believed this to be the case with Kumar Rocker, who was projected to be a late first round pick or early second rounder. Not willing to wait for their second round pick to come around and lose their chance with Rocker, Texas drafted him #3 overall. More dramatically, in 2020, the Red Sox used the #17 pick on infielder Nick Yorke, who was projected to be a 4th round pick. When you know, you know, I guess. Even in those situations, there is still value in having a higher pick (beyond preventing a similarly delusional team skipping over you to grab your diamond in the rough). The MLB Draft is set up with monetary values assigned to each pick. The total value of a team's picks determines the maximum amount of money the team can spend on signing bonuses each year, which is important because players (other than college seniors) can return to school if they are not satisfied with the amount of their bonus. Moving up from 13 to 5 allows the Twins an additional 2 million dollars in bonus money. In 2020, the Red Sox signed Yorke for almost one million dollars under what the pick was worth, and that leftover money went to other players' signing bonuses (Blaze Jordan signed with Boston for over one million more than his pick was worth that same year). The differences between signing bonus pools is most significant at the top of the draft order, but even those picking later in the draft can have a couple thousand dollars more than they would have had they selected one pick later every round. All of the information covered really seems like it benefits those at the top of each round disproportionally, which is true. However, those at the end of the round also see practical benefits to even being one pick higher. Each team has a big board (see the picture above of Oakland's big board in Moneyball), on which they order the players in the draft from 1 to 1,500. In the old days, each player was represented by a magnet. Today, the magic of technology likely enables the board to be completely computer-based, saving someone the trouble of peeling and moving magnets around every time Joe Blow moves from #796 to #781. Sometimes the order is clear:0aAmong the players remaining, the Bloomington Whalers may prefer Giuseppe Giordano to Jimbo Griffin. This is especially true when Giuseppe is ranked #67 on the board, and Jimbo is the next highest ranked at #94. Perhaps the Whalers are higher on Guiseppe than the rest of the league and are happy to take him in the 6th round, no questions asked. Teams often have wildly different preferences after the first few rounds, which is why every scouting director and GM is so happy that their own version of Guiseppe "fell" to them in the 6th. You will never, ever, encounter a decisionmaker who laments the fact that all of their top 25 players were picked before the 25th pick. It's never happened. Ever. However, sometimes the selection is not so easy. Say that the Whalers are in the 4th round, with a couple of picks before their own. On their board, #45 Stevie Templeton and #46 Freight Train Figueroa are still undrafted. At this point, there's some disagreement over who is the better prospect, and the room is split. Discussion ensues. Two spot before their pick, Figueroa is drafted. Problem solved; Templeton will be their pick. Except that Templeton was then taken, the pick right before the Whalers. Pandemonium. Given that it's the 6th round, the Whalers have 60 seconds to call in their pick. They had not planned for this, and they need to act fast. They default instead to pick #68 on their board: Warts Murphey, because he was the next highest ranked player. Had the Whalers had a pick one earlier, they would have had Figueroa. Alas, they settle for Murphey as the decision is forced on them. Rumor has it a similar situation happened to the Twins within the last 10 years with one of their top draft picks, and it's had a marked effect on the big league team. Although this example does not apply to every round of the draft, each team probably faces the top guy on their board being drafted the pick before their own at least once. Although it may not be of much consequence to the thirteen fans watching the draft at home, it certainly matters to the decisionmakers. Getting access to a tier of players that the team didn't initially expect, additional bonus money, and a lower likelihood of the team getting sniped all amount to legitimate effects on draft day, so even one higher draft pick matters. But please don't tank. Tanking is for losers.

At the beginning of the offseason, Nick Nelson laid out the concept of the Sonny Gray Threshold™, the idea that the Twins need to sign a pitcher better than Sonny Gray to make a worthwhile difference on next year's team, moving everyone in the rotation down a peg. I'm of the opinion that the threshold could be considerably lower than Sonny Gray, but the Twins have yet to even do that. Mind you, if you just read that last sentence and, in your head, it said "I don't want the Twins to sign a good pitcher" please do not run down to the comments to start sentences with "JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Homer Bailey, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer." If you do, I will light myself on fire. I, instead, am of the opinion that the Twins have a serviceable pitching rotation, in theory, that could use one more reinforcement that does not need to be a potential 1 or 2 starter. A mid-rotation starter would be just fine, though I would not say no to someone at the top of the rotation. At minimum, though, I would like to see a guy who can be plugged in in the Kenta Maeda-Bailey Ober area. With the Rangers' signing of Nate Eovaldi, there are no more free agents seen as above the Sonny Gray Threshold, even if you squint. Unless the Twins swing a trade for pitcher a la Pablo Lopez, the ship has sailed. However, the Twins also lost out on pitchers in the Noah Syndergaard-Andrew Heaney-Jameson Taillon area as well. Although that type of pitcher is not exciting, it does benefit the roster as currently constructed The Starting 5 This Christmas, I was eating dinner with my great-uncle Oscar, who was lamenting the modern pitching rotation. "Back in my day, we only needed 2 pitchers. Bloomington had Seven Radishes Niederreiter and Slappy LeFleu. After Radishes died of scurvy, Bloomington brought in Georgie O'Sullivan. Back when MEN were MEN, that's all we needed." I, a learned and worldly man, gave him a heart attack when I said the Twins should start 2023 with a six-man rotation. Why would I suggest such heresy? I actually love this starting rotation. Its ceiling is as high as any Twins rotation ever has been. It does not have an elite arm at the top of the rotation, but there are no clear weak spots. Joe Ryan has been impressive early in his career and profiles as a solid, mid-rotation starter. Both Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle have the potential to be borderline #1 starters. Kenta Maeda finished second in Cy Young voting during the abbreviated 2020 season, and was a good starter for the Dodgers prior to that. Bailey Ober has shown flashes in his limited work as a high-strikeout, low walk hurler, and I am very high on him, no pun intended, if he stays healthy. And therein lies the issue--if he stays healthy. It applies to more than just Ober. Gray has started 28 games just twice in his 10-year career. Mahle's entire 2022 second half amounted to seven starts due to indiscriminate shoulder pain. Maeda is coming off of Tommy John surgery, and did not look particularly good a season and a half ago when he last pitched. Ober has never thrown more than 109 innings due to a number of injuries. It is easy to see any member of this rotation needing a trip to the IL within the first month of the season. The Cavalry Admittedly, the Twins are in a better place in terms of starting pitching depth than they have been in recent years. Josh Winder and Cole Sands both spent significant time in the bigs during 2022, though to limited success. Upper-level pitching prospects Louie Varland, Simeon Woods-Richardson, and Ronny Henriquez all seem ready to make the jump and are not terrible options if needed. Although it should not be counted on, Jordan Balazovic may bounce back after an injury-riddled year, Chris Paddack may be ready to rejoin the club in August or September, and Randy Dobnak may also be around to make spot starts if needed. None of those reserve options are particularly appetizing, though, especially if starts are needed in May. Should Mahle's shoulder flare up (or any other number of maladies befall a member of the rotation) during Spring Training, Varland or Winder would probably break camp in the starting rotation. A midseason call-up would be more palatable for a couple of pitchers with a combined 16 Major League starts. So, Six? Yes, six. Those with long memories will recall April 7th, 2022, when the Minnesota Twins acquired a sixth starter via trade in the form of Paddack, then opened the year with six in the rotation. My proposal is simply that they do that again. The chances are high that within the month, one of the starting pitchers will land himself on the IL, solving the problem and reducing the rotation to the standard five. If there are no early shutdowns, the Twins will face a problem rarely seen in MLB: too many pitchers. This problem is one that they would surely tolerate. It also gives the team the flexibility to cut ties or reassign players when needed. For example, should Maeda's new elbow struggle to support a starter's workload, he may become a bullpen arm, though I would monitor that situation carefully. Maeda has made it very clear that he is opposed to working out of the bullpen, and his salary is tied to the number of innings he throws. Building off of that thought, one of the biggest reasons that the Chris Archer signing in 2022 was such a misstep was because of the lack of viable internal options. Signing a former ace to an incentive-laden deal is a terrific strategy, in theory. If he pitches well and regains his form, you'll be happy to pay his incentives. If he struggles, you have little sunk cost preventing you from cutting him loose. However, if the rotation is bogged down with injuries, like it was in 2022, and the team does not have competent minor leaguers in the wings, the team will find it hard to cut ties with a relatively healthy veteran to turn to, say, Devin Smeltzer and Chi Chi González. This season presents an opportunity that past seasons have not, in that regard. Of course, this is all incumbent on the team being able to manage a seven-man bullpen, which is another ordeal all together. For the sake of argument, let's pretend everything is hunky-dory. Current Options Given that all of the true Big Arms™ have been plucked up by now and even notable higher-upside flyer candidates are falling off the board--between beginning this post and now, even Corey Kluber has been signed--the pickings are slim in free agency. Instead, the options appear to be in the Zack Greinke-Michael Wacha range, though even Greinke seems like a longshot. Just under that lie Johnny Cueto or Wade Miley. If the Twins front office sees any of those arms as being in the 1 - 2 WAR range around $10MM, I say go for it, though no one would be excited by a Johnny Cueto signing (despite his 3.5 bWAR season in 2022). That comes with the caveat that said pitcher performs more like 2020 Rich Hill or 2019 Michael Pineda than 2021 Matt Shoemaker or 2020 Homer Bailey. The front office has more hits than misses at this level, but hopefully the current depth would allow them to shed the sixth starter if needed. Okay, now you can run down to the comments to say "Happ Shoemaker Bailey Archer Bundy." This would all look like a much better idea, had the brass jumped on Carlos Rodón or Eovaldi, or even Mike Clevinger or Matthew Boyd. They have had months to acquire one additional even marginally competent pitcher, but that has yet to happen, though I will hold judgement until the end of the offseason. Still, the threshold didn't need to be Sonny Gray, but they haven't even eclipsed Josiah Gray. _________________________________________________________________ If you've read this far, you might be interested in the "highlight" tape that I put together for the 2022 Twins bullpen last week (language warning): https://youtu.be/OD_5kc8IiHY If you liked that, here's also the Miguel Sanó Experience: https://youtu.be/OD_5kc8IiHY And a more serious farewell video for Miguel: https://youtu.be/rI-yYQ1IsQo

I appreciate it, Bonnes. It’s an idea I’ve been wrestling with for years now, and I know there’s no good answer. I really just wanted to get it down on paper.

Woah woah woah, I never had credibility to begin with

Go ahead, give me your hokey analytics about "Joey Gallo only hits .200," "There are now 5 lefty corner outfielders on this team," and "Joey Gallo has the highest K rate of all time." Well guess what nerds, I care about the stallion in the Italian, not what his "box score" may look like. Jokes aside, although not a world-moving acquisition, I think that it makes some sense, though it broke at an unfortunate time--two days after Correa signed with San Francisco and one day after Carlos Rodón signed with New York. Certainly, if the Twins' biggest signing this offseason is Joey Gallo, fans have reason to be upset. I do follow the offseason move-to-move and react to each move, but I am not one to put the label OFFSEASON FAILED on a team until the season begins and the Opening Day roster is finalized. First, though, let's cover the negatives. Gallo had a horrendous season last year, with a slash line of .160/.280/.357. If he performs like that again in 2023, he will likely be out of the league. He strikes out way too much and has a laughably low batting average, and that can only be expected to continue without an approach change. Players' bat-to-ball skills do not improve with age, and Gallo will enter 2023 as a 29-year-old. Furthermore, Gallo enters a crowded space of left-handed corner outfielders alongside Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon, and Matt Wallner. Of all the player types the Twins could have pursued, they got a guy who plays at their arguably deepest position. With those strikes against him, why don't I mind the signing? There are a few reasons: The corner depth is hypothetical Yes, there is a glut of corner outfield depth on this roster, and they are all lefties (with the exception of Gilberto Celestino, who is a corner guy in name only, given his poor stick). However, let's go through those options. Even before the Gallo signing, Kepler was going to be moved. Even if he didn't already have one foot out the door, it's debatable that Kepler would be better than Gallo. Both have high floors, given their defensive ability, but Kepler, outside of 2019, has not shown the chops to be anything better than a league average hitter. Gallo, on the other hand, has shown the ability to hit at an all-star level as recently as 2021. After Kepler, the top two guys are Kirilloff and Larnach, neither of which have proven much of anything between 2021 and 2022. Both have shown flashes of potential to be high-level hitters, and I still believe in them, but both have also been bogged down by significant injuries. Gordon was on the shortlist to be DFAed during the 2022 season prior to his development as a top hitter in the depleted Twins lineup in 2022, but his performance was bolstered by a high BAPIP and he is more suited as a utility player than an everyday left fielder or the strong side of a platoon. Wallner impressed last season at both AA and AAA and had a solid run after his late season callup, but that's all the major league experience that he has. Between the four of them, they have 1,584 MLB plate appearances combined, the equivalent of about three seasons as an everyday player. If the Twins started the season without Kepler or another corner outfield acquisition, they would start with Kirilloff in left and Larnach in right, and if either of them got injured, which is likely given their history, Gordon would be pushed into an everyday role, and Wallner would probably be up as a fourth outfielder. I think that they can all ball, but that's a thin group to enter the season with. I do believe that there is another righty bat coming the Twins way (Jurickson Profar is the guy I want to see now), and I can be convinced that it's not the end of the world for either Larnach or Kirilloff to start the season in AAA, given that neither is a sure thing. Joey Gallo can reasonably become Joey Gallo again In terms of buy-low hitters, Gallo probably has the highest ceiling outside of Cody Bellinger and his 17.5MM contract with a 12MM mutant option for 2024. When Gallo is playing at the form he's capable of, he can get on-base 35% of the time despite his astronomical strikeout rate and low batting average because of his astronomical walk rate (13% for his career). He can bop 30+ homers, with two 40 home run seasons to his name. He can play Gold Glove defense in right field. Obviously, there's a lot of ifs in this conversation, but it's better to take a shot at a guy like Gallo than to fill a spot with a low-ceiling Trey Mancini, AJ Pollack, or Adam Frazier type of player for the same money. If you're going to give out a one-year contract to a veteran, give it to someone who is one year removed from an All Star season and is still under 30. If the Twins and Gallo are fortunate and he makes good on his prove-it deal, he will likely be up for a big payday prior to the 2024 season. The Twins would love to watch him go. It would mean that he turned in a good year for the team, helping them contend for an AL Central title. However, there is an added bonus that only schmucks like me care about. Because he performed poorly in his final arbitration year (and was traded in-season), he did not receive a qualifying offer and is eligible for one in 2024. If he puts up a Gallo-esque season with a 125 OPS+, 35 homers, and great right field defense, he would likely decline the offer, giving the Twins an extra draft pick for 2024. I for one would like to see that happen. Positional flexibility Gallo is a great right fielder, due to his solid range and great arm. He also has experience at all three outfield positions, first base, and third base. I don't see Gallo ever returning to the hot corner. gallo.mp4 However, we all know that the Twins love themselves some position flexibility. The only alignment that would make sense to put Gallo at first base would be three of Byron Buxton, Gordon, Larnach, and Celestino being in the game alongside Gallo, as they would likely prefer Kirilloff and Wallner at first over him. Still, the option is there. More importantly is his ability to fill in in centerfield. He has not played there much since 2019, partially due to the personnel of the teams he was on. He didn't look bad in his work in center, though it has been 4 years since he had significant time out there. That being said, he would provide an extra layer of security for centerfield, which is important given Buxton's injury history. Is he a long-term replacement candidate if Buxton misses extended time with injury? Probably not, but I would bet that he will end up playing more centerfield this year than Max Kepler, another top defensive right fielder with the ability to play center, did last year (9 innings across 3 games). I wrote about the importance of having a third centerfielder and keeping Celestino down in AAA for the sake of the team and the player a couple weeks ago. Gallo fits the bill there. It's only 11 million for one year The cat was out of the bag by the time Gallo signed: the Twins do not plan on devoting 25MM+ to any one player this offseason. With 50MM to spend to reach last year's payroll, it's not a terrible use of 11MM. If he hits .160 through May and Wallner is killing it at AAA, I don't think the Twins will sweat the lost pay. He can easily be cut at that level. All of this is incumbent on him hitting at least .200, but that's a given.

The great American poet Chester Bennington once said "I tried so hard and got so far, but in the end, it doesn't even matter." Every time that a notable (read: league-average) player signs with a team other than Minnesota, we hear the same complaints: "Typical Twins, always in the mix but never get it done." Why is it that almost every time a guy signs, it's not with the Twins? Well, we can start with there being 29 other teams, so surely the club can't sign every player they're interested in. However, it's not reasonable to expect the Twins to sign 1 in every 30 free agents, either. That's far too low. So where is the line? How many misses is too many misses? For an elite player, almost every team would be interested in their services, for the right price. Oakland and Pittsburgh aren't going to be writing a $360,000,000 check for Arson Judge anytime soon, though. Some teams also wouldn't be in the mix for a specific player at their price because they have someone else at that position that isn't worth replacing for the money involved. Then there's the matter of more, let's just say, role players. Guys that no one is salivating for, but teams are interested in their services nonetheless to fill roster gaps, if they have room. Take Michael Brantley, for example. The Angels would have money to sign him, but as an almost DH-only player at this point in his career, the Angels wouldn't be interested in him displacing Ohtani. So let's take a situation where the Twins are hypothetically in on Dansby Swanson. He was tied to Chicago, Boston, LA, Atlanta, St. Louis, San Francisco, and Minnesota over the offseason. So with Minnesota being one of seven teams, all things being equal, the Twins had a 14% chance to sign him. If the Twins were tied to seven Dansby Swanson-like players (one of seven in the mix) this offseason, would you be satisfied if they signed one of them? What about someone like Josh Bell? Almost any team has a spot in some regard for a switch-hitting slugger. Obviously, we can throw out teams that would be unlikely to pay anyone 16.5MM right now like Oakland, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, or Kansas City, or a team like Houston post-Abreu signing and the White Sox that doesn't need that type of player at current. Still, we're down to something like 18 teams that would be interested, at the right price. Should we be happy with the Twins getting 6% of those types of free agents, 1 of every 18? Probably not, especially if we only want to consider players the Twins made a real run at. Building off of that, how much should the context of the Twins being a mid-to-small market team affect your expectations? Given that they're competing in this case with five big-market teams and the Cardinals, one would assume that they would be less likely to put up the money, based on budgetary reasons. So should you expect to see the team snag fewer than the average? I don't actually have an answer for this question. I'm mostly just thinking out loud. Obviously, there shouldn't be an expectation that the team signs all of the guys they pursue, or even most of them. But there has to be a line somewhere. It may be lower than emotion might tell you, but it also may be higher than logic might tell you.

Thank you, Jack

I'm begging you. I'm tried of deleting this. I have fat thumbs and hit enter accidentally As a sidenote, is there a delete function somewhere?

Schrödinger's Correa

Off the top of my head, I know there are some recent studies on home field advantage related to the type of stadium (domed, retractable, open-air) because players struggle to track the ball in with unfamiliar backdrops (Dome Doubles anyone?) and difficulties in communication on field, but I haven't come across anything that has to do with road life. That's definitely an interesting avenue of research!

I appreciate it! One of the biggest issues (beyond there being few studies that both directly measure psychological factors and compare them to game statistics) is that the literature is so scattered. There's a ton of one-and-done studies that are never followed up on and just sit on an island in terms of focus. There's a good deal of focus on roles (informal roles, role ambiguity, role conflict), but so many other topics have sol little. The size of baseball teams also makes it more difficult than sports like volleyball or basketball.

As the stove continues to get hotter and hotter and the Carlos Correa decision seems to be moments away, the value of his clubhouse presence is brought up as a hedge against skill regression with age. Even if he isn't able to play at an above average level, at least they'll have him in the clubhouse. But what do we actually know about the concept of "clubhouse presence" when it comes to measurable effects? Sure, it's a fun idea to throw out to express a hypothetical value, but what does it actually mean? Get ready for an ol' Gregg deep dive. I'm going to be looking into a few findings from the field of psychology to explore what clubhouse presence is and what there is to be gained from someone like Correa. As a caveat, this type of research is still in its infancy--no more than perhaps 20 years old. Few psychologists, even sport psychologists, dive into team processes from a social perspective. Beyond that, meaningful data on the highest performing athletes (i.e., MLB teams) is nearly impossible to measure directly, given that most researchers off the street don't have the opportunity to walk up to pro athletes and start asking them questions about mental factors. With that out of the way, here are three findings I think might be worth digging into. References for these studies will be listed at the bottom of this blog, and links will be available to the studies if I can find publicly-available versions. If you have access to a research database through a university or something similar, you might be able to locate those behind a paywall. Informal Roles Teams have formal roles like first baseman, middle reliever, and leadoff hitter that are related to performing on the field, but they also have informal roles that are more about interpersonal actions. About 10 years ago, a group of scientists led by Cassandra Cope of Laurentian University performed a content analysis of Sports Illustrated articles to identify potential informal roles on a team, then they got input from about 100 athletes to narrow down the list. The list they came up with had archetypes like verbal leader, sparkplug, cancer, and comedian. Since that time, researchers have been trying to understand what meaning those labels might have. In 2020, a study was published by a team from Wilfrid Laurier University led by Jeemin Kim that looked into outcomes of having certain players on teams. Although they did not get game data for performance, they did survey 16 college athletics teams, one of which was a baseball team. They found some interesting results, such as teams with more cancers (I won't name names as an example, but you know), distracters, and malingerers (i.e., dragging out injuries) tended to be rated as less cohesive. Teams with comedians and enforcers (i.e., dudes who will protect their teammates) being on a team was associated with more cohesion. Most pertinent to this conversation was the interesting finding that there was an inverted-U shaped relationship between verbal leaders and satisfaction with how the team attacks its goals (winning). Too few leaders was bad, and too many was even worse. The sweet spot seemed to be around 10-15% of the team being seen as a leader. In MLB terms, that would be 2-4 players per team. Correa clearly fills that role, and this is a team that is not known for having many verbal leaders. Byron Buxton fills more of a nonverbal leadership role, leading more through example. Sonny Gray comes to mind as a verbal leader, but the list runs out quickly. There are clearly not too many verbal leaders on this team, so Correa fits nicely in this regard. An approximation of this relationship: Knowledge Use This second finding came from researchers Jamal Shamsie of Michigan State and Michael Mannor of Notre Dame. In their 2013 paper, they analyzed MLB teams from 1985-2001. For these kinds of studies, there are some assumptions that need to be made, given that the researchers didn't personally survey any of the players on these teams. On the bright side, though, they can attach their findings to performance data. In their paper, they look into tacit knowledge. Tacit knowledge is knowledge that cannot be easily taught, through things like having conversations or sitting in a class. Tacit knowledge often comes from experience and is difficult to communicate. To represent this type of knowledge, the researchers rated teams based on things like years of managing for the skipper, tenure of managers and players with their current teams, number of lineup changes, and number of games played in recent years. In total they used eight markers for tacit knowledge and all of them were associated with team winning percentage. Carlos Correa brings one big piece of tacit knowledge studied in this paper that most of the Twins lack: playoff experience, which was positively associated with winning percentage in this study. Although it's difficult to have someone say "This is how you win in the playoffs," the mere fact that he has such an extensive history playing in October would provide the Twins with something that few remaining free agents have to the same degree that Correa does. Faultlines Okay, this one is really fun. It might not relate super strongly to Correa, but this is one of my favorite papers ever. Faultlines within teams refer to dormant things that can fracture a team but are only seen during conflict. Often, they can be similarities between team members that can cause some to take one side in a conflict and some to take the other side. When there are several similarities between members, the fraction can be even more dramatic and likely. In a 2016 paper written by a team of researchers led by Katerina Bezrukova of Santa Clara, MLB teams were analyzed based on faultlines. The factors they highlighted were age, race, and nation of origin. This example took me a while to figure out, and it's not perfect, but it should help in understanding what I'm talking about. Imagine that baseball is a team with only four players. On the left we have Team 1: Miguel Sano, Royce Lewis, Jake Cave, and Jose Miranda. On the right we have Team 2: Joe Smith, Caleb Thielbar, Gilberto Celestino, and Jhoan Duran. Both teams have two White guys and two [Black or Latino, respectively] guys, two older guys and two younger guys, and two guys born in the USA and two guys born in [broadly the Caribbean or the DR, respectively]. However, as can be seen below, the arrangement of faultlines varies greatly (the dotted line is to represent similarity--I only have 2 dimensions). Please do not read this as me assuming the quality of relationships on last year's team. I picked these players soley based on how I could arrange them for the example. Given that each player on the left side shares one similarity with each other player, it would be more difficult to fracture that team than the team on the right side. Anyway, there's a very complicated formula used to calculate fau, or the strength of faultlines within a team. In their study, the team looked at every MLB team between 2004 and 2008. Not only did they find that teams with stronger faultlines tended to have poorer records, but player groups tended to perform better as a whole when the faultines between those subgroups were weak. Player groups used here were starting batters, bench batters, starting rotation, and bullpen. As a veteran Latino player, Correa can relate to both veteran players and players from Latin American countries. Other than Jorge Polanco and Jorge Lopez, none of the Latino players projected to play for the squad next year have reached their late 20s, but there are several players from the USA who are in their late 20s. Having the type of players who can bridge gaps is important. ________________________________________ There are a lot of fun findings that I don't have the room to go into in these three papers (I say as I wrap up a 1,500 word blog), and I encourage you to check them out, if you're into that thing. There is evidence out there that the interpersonal side of team construction does make a difference, but we still have a long way to go. If people end up enjoying this deep dive, I have other research I'd love to share. Cope, C. J., Eys, M. A., Beauchamp, M. R., Schinke, R. J., & Bosselut, G. (2011). Informal roles on sport teams. International Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 9(1), 19-30. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233355503_Informal_roles_on_sport_teams/link/00b7d526fcd315e5b4000000/download Kim, J., Godfrey, M., & Eys, M. (2020). The antecedents and outcomes of informal roles in interdependent sport teams. Sport, Exercise, and Performance Psychology, 9(3), 277–291. https://doi.org/10.1037/spy0000179 Shamsie, J., & Mannor, M. J. (2013). Looking inside the dream team: Probing into the contributions of tacit knowledge as an organizational resource. Organization Science, 24(2), 513-529. https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/pdf/10.1287/orsc.1120.0741?casa_token=8-aXs_42nYoAAAAA:GLmBckoRaDqxm44T9vSTbsqFu7wZtgLn8uOTjUvEDHi52Ghl3pDWjUX-kOl-iFiaE0Y3MrWFTS0 Bezrukova, K., Spell, C. S., Caldwell, D., & Burger, J. M. (2016). A multilevel perspective on faultlines: Differentiating the effects between group-and organizational-level faultlines. Journal of Applied Psychology, 101(1), 86. https://www.scu.edu/media/college-of-arts-and-sciences/psychology/documents/Bezrukova-et-al-JAP-2015.pdf

Hey, I really appreciate it. I get long-winded, and I’m still working on being able to get my points across concisely to write better blogs. I hope to improve on it. I like the directions you listed here. There’s really so many ways to accomplish this goal and I’ll be disappointed if it doesn’t happen.

Missed '64 Allison and Oliva as an oversight. I started in 1964 because that was the first year Oliva won a batting title, and I'm a good-for-nuthin' cherry picker.

Do I think that Luis Arraez is in any great danger to be traded? No. He doesn't have enough value to be the centerpiece in a trade for top end starting pitching. I would be sad though. Upon his winning of the AL batting title, I did some research, and found an interesting statistic, which I shared on Reddit at the time with some inaccuracies, and I want to write up here as well as the definitive edition. The Twins have had the AL batting champion 15 times since 1964, a whopping 26% of seasons (Carew x7, Oliva x3, Mauer x3, Puckett x1, Arraez x1). In that same timespan, the Twins have had 16 seasons with at least one (1) 30 homerun hitter. They are almost as likely to have a hitter win a batting title as they are to have a single hitter hit 30 home runs. To show my work, here is a list of years with at least one player who hit 30 homeruns: 2021: Polanco (33), Sano (30) 2019: Cruz (41), Kepler (36), Sano (34), Rosario (32). Garver (31) 2017: Dozier (34) 2016: Dozier (42) 2012: Willingham (35) 2009: Cuddyer (32), Morneau (30) 2007: Morneau (31) 2006: Morneau (34), Hunter (31) 1987: Hrbek (34), Brunansky (32), Gaetti (31) 1986: Gaetti (34), Puckett (31) 1984: Brunansky (32) 1970: Killebrew (41) 1969: Killebrew (49) 1967: Killebrew (44) 1966: Killebrew (39) 1964: Killebrew (49), Oliva (32), Allison (32) During a stretch from 1971 to 1983, the Twins had zero hitters hit more than 30 home runs, but had a player win the batting title six times. From 1988 to 2005 there were also no 30 home run seasons, but there was a batting title. There have been more players that won a batting title than have hit 40 or more homeruns in a season (Cruz, Dozier, Killebrew). With at least one more season of Luis Arraez and no sure bets to belt 30 longballs in 2023, the record may come to 16-16, which would make any curmudgeonly, old-school, Twins Way, baseball fan like me smile. As a side note, in 1981, Roy Smalley led the Twins in homers with 7.

Appreciate the comment. I don’t believe that he’s a future starter, at least in Minnesota or on a playoff team, but he certainly has the profile of a good fourth outfielder, hitting for a solid average with just a bit of pop and good-not-great centerfield defense. Although he was only up for 2 months, the timing of his trips led to him playing just 70 games in the high minors, which absolutely stunted his development. I want to see him reach his ceiling as a valuable role piece on a good team.

Maybe I was unclear. I meant the current-day skill level of Billy Hamilton

In the 2019 offseason, the Twins had four promising young outfielders in the minors who could reasonably be projected to stick as MLB centerfielders, occupying at least a 4th outfielder role--Misael Urbina, Gabriel Maciel, Akil Baddoo, and Gilberto Celestino. Urbina (20) is still in the organization, finishing the season at A-ball Ft. Myers. Maciel was claimed off waivers before the 2022 season by Oakland. Baddoo, quite infamously, was taken by the Tigers in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, a fact that Twins personnel and fans are unlikely to forget following his rookie season in Detroit in which he slashed .259/.330/.436 over 124 games splitting time between left and centerfield (though not much griping is heard about him lately, given his struggles in 2022). The team may still come to regret not placing Baddoo on the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. In contrast, the 4th player on that list, Gilberto Celestino, was protected from the Rule 5 Draft prior to the 2020 season as a 20-year-old player fresh off of finishing a good year at High-A Ft. Myers (and Cedar Rapids), a similar position to where Urbina is today. However, the timing of that move is meaningful, which will be unpacked shortly. As a 20-year-old who had not played at AA yet, the case to protect the second piece of the Ryan Pressly trade wasn't strong, but it was still understandable to have a bit of fear of a solid defensive centerfielder being plucked away. After being added, Celestino spent the following season as part of the extended roster during the 2020 shortened and restricted season, not playing any games, but working out with Twins personnel nonetheless. All things considered, not the worst outcome. The following two years, however, have been no more beneficial to his development. After a string of injuries to Twins centerfielders (and non-centerfielders like Rob Refsnyder and Kyle Garlick that were trotted out in center anyway) Celestino was forced into action in 2021, far before he was ready, leading to some ugly play from a 22-year-old player with no AAA experience and 96 plate appearances above A-ball. He also spent the entirety of 2022 with the big league club, save a week in AAA between Miguel Sano being activated and then placed back on the IL. He led the team in both games played in centerfield and games played in the outfield overall due to injuries in both leftfield and centerfield. However, this again was not an ideal situation for the young player, who slashed an unsavory .238/.313/.302 despite intense BAPIP luck in the opening month of the season while playing average outfield defense. This blog was originally written under the assumption that Celestino was out of options as of the 2023 season, but I made an important discovery in researching Celestino's situation. He fortunately still has one, as his July demotion only lasted 4 days, short of MLB's 20-day grace period for the option to be used. The misfortune of the Twins roster situation has actually given Celestino another shot at a development year. Had he been in St. Paul much longer, he would be restricted to the MLB team unless the club exposed him to waivers, and I fail to see a world in which a 24-year-old, capable centerfielder with some upside making the minimum would go unclaimed on waivers. So that brings us to today. At present, he projects on next year's squad as a fourth-outfielder type, alongside hypothetical bench bats Nick Gordon, Kyle Garlick, and Mystery Backup Catcher. However, that bench setup assumes that newly-acquired Kyle Farmer would be starting at shortstop. Should the Twins add a shortstop to start over Farmer, the bench becomes crowded. Even without Farmer filling a reserve role, Celestino's skills are redundant on this roster as one of three bench outfielders on a team already projected to start four capable outfielders. As the team's seventh outfielder, Celestino is behind Nick Gordon as the primary backup centerfielder and behind Kyle Garlick as the bench righthanded bat. He is not markedly faster than Nick Gordon, so even in a pinch runner role, he is not clearly valuable. His OPS+ was the lowest on the 2022 team among players with at least 80 plate appearances, so he cannot be looked to as a situational pinch hitter, either. Given this information, should the Twins want to keep Garlick around for a platoon role, Celestino seems to be the odd man out. This would be the best thing for his development, though. In his limited experience at AAA, he has shown promise with an .804 OPS in 220 plate appearances. Giving him a few months (or a full year) to grow in St. Paul would be the best thing for his development as an unpolished centerfielder with above-average but not good upside. However, in order to afford the team and Celestino this luxury, there needs to be an additional line of defense between Celestino and everyday centerfield work. Byron Buxton's injury is well-documented, and the team has shown an unwillingness to move Max Kepler over to centerfield in recent years (9 innings in CF in 2022). Because of this, the Twins are an injury away from Nick Gordon being the everyday centerfielder and Celestino being the next man up. If the Twins are serious about giving Celestino the best shot at developing into a solid contributor to the big league team for years to come, there needs to be at least one more centerfield option before turning to the young Dominican, even if just for the first couple months of the season. This could take the form of the coveted righty bat that I gave my opinion on here, such as an everyday play player like Adam Duvall. However, it doesn't need to be that great of an investment. Signing someone at the level of Travis Jankowski, Albert Almora, Brett Phillips, Kevin Pillar, or Adam Engel on a minor league deal would do the trick, providing one extra line of defense between Celestino and the big league squad as even a temporary fill-in should Buxton miss time with injury. Essentially, anyone over the cutoff of the 2022 version of Billy Hamilton will do. A failure to find one more, even replacement-level, veteran to fill a backup-backup centerfield role may cost Celestino his last chance at incubating at AAA to realize his full hit tool. Forcing him into service for a third consecutive year in a reserve role with only 316 plate appearances between AA and AAA will not allow him to reach his potential. The Twins are fortunate to still have Celestino's third option year, and they should take advantage of it.

Okay, the title ignores the whole shortstop situation, but hear me out. Actually it also ignores the catcher issue as well, but just keep reading. I'll briefly address them later. When @vikingsfan1936 commented "Failvine found there missing piece ..." and "World Sereis here we come" under Dan Hayes's tweets about the Twins' trade for Kyle Farmer and resigning of Kyle Garlick, respectively, he might not actually be too far off the mark. Obviously, no one would say that the Two Kyles™️ solve all the problems that the Twins face, but there may be some interesting strategy in development. The term "set the floor" has been thrown around quite a bit in regards to the acquisition of Farmer; his presence provides a shortstop that the team can, at minimum, tolerate while holding its nose and paying ~6M for the season. However, the floor could have also been set with the likes of Elvis Andrus, Aledmys Diaz, or Jose Iglesias. Hell, old friend Andrelton Simmons or phantom signing Johan Camargo could technically fill the role of Floor™️ without giving up a mid-level prospect in the process. So why did the Twins go out of their way to snatch up Kyle Farmer before the Reds likely non-tendered him? One reason: his ability to kill two birds with one stone and be the Floor™️ at both shortstop and catcher. Kidding, of course. His catching background is nice to have in a team's back pocket and satisfy the Ron Gardenhire 3-Catcher-Quota, but the real reason is that the Twins plan on using him as a vital piece of the lineup on a regular basis. Assuming that the team manages to sign or otherwise acquire another shortstop, relegating Farmer to a utility infielder, the lineup against righties would look something like this: C: Jeffers 1B: Kirilloff* 2B: Polanco 3B: Miranda SS: <insert shortstop> LF: Larnach* CF: Buxton RF: Kepler* DH: Arraez* *left-handed hitter There's likely some give on this, and an assumption that Larnach and Kirilloff are both healthy and ready to perform, but, should they not be, the in-house replacements are Nick Gordon and Matt Wallner, which is less than ideal, but it's what they've got. And did I mention that they're also both lefties? We all know what Kyle Garlick is here to do, and that's to mash lefties (130 wRC+ in the past two years), play a passable left field, and look like a sexy firefighter in the dugout when there isn't a lefty on the mound. As was noted quickly after the trade by members of Twins Territory, Kyle Farmer also has very fun splits versus lefthanded pitching, with a wRC+ 22% above league average and an absurd triple slash line last year of .309/.380/.568 (.948 OPS) in 158 plate appearances. Farmer has the additional value over Garlick of also being a serviceable option at shortstop defensively and a good fielder at both second and third base, which is where a platoon strategy comes into play. Platoons are great. In the absence of an all-star player, a team can opt to selectively play two players in opportunities that suit their strengths, often based on handedness. Lefties hit righthanded pitchers better, righties hit southpaws better. Everyone knows this. The Twins have the misfortune of having lefties in both corner outfield positions, first base, and designated hitter at the present, which are the top four positions counted on to provide offensive thump. This is an issue when facing a lefthanded hurler, and it's shown in recent years as the squad has struggled against lefties for the past three years with an OPS below league average. So, let's do a little plug-and-play. Let's say that Garlick will play left field and Farmer will play third base. This will slide Miranda over to first base vs. lefties. For the sake of argument, we'll let Kepler and Larnach alternate games in right, and Arraez and Kirilloff will split games at DH (could also be first base with Miranda DHing, but stop questioning me). Here's what we're looking at, along with each player's wRC+ vs lefties last year. C: Jeffers (161) 1B: Miranda (132) 2B: Polanco (75)** 3B: Farmer (157) SS: <insert shortstop> LF: Garlick (128) CF: Buxton (159) RF: Kepler*(98)/Larnach*(108) DH: Arraez*(101)/Kirilloff*(73) * lefthanded hitter ** let's hope Polanco can get at least back up to his 93 career wRC+ and hopefully closer to his 118 between 2020 & 2021, or I'll look real silly We've now worked our way down to two spots in the lineup occupied by lefties when the Twins face a LHP. And those numbers look like a lot of fun. Scanning the rest of the in-house options for righties brings us to Gilberto Celestino, who is actually a worse hitter vs. LHP than any of the lefties at the bottom of that lineup. It ought to be noted that virtually all shortstops available as free agents or rumored to be trade targets to any extent (except for lefty Brandon Crawford) are righthanded hitters, so they would all fit well into this lineup as well. But if we take this one step further, we can arrive at a solid, balanced team that can succeed against both right- and lefthanded pitchers. And that, finally, brings us to the real reason I wrote this blog. Did you really think this was another "No, seriously, guys, Kyle Farmer is actually a galaxy-brain move and not cringe Falvine at it again, liking a good deal better than a good player, stop laughing!!!!" blog? The Twins need a solid righthanded bat that can play a corner infield spot or first base, and it doesn't need to be a stud. Jose Abreu was snapped up yesterday by the Astros, removing potentially the biggest bat from the group. Although it would be great to bring in high-upside, belle-of-the-ball guys like Willson Contreras as that last piece of righty oompf, the front office can reasonably aim lower and still do a good job at rounding out this squad. If the team has the budget to pay for a Josh Bell- Mitch Hanniger- or Juickson Profar type, those guys are available and would fit the bill. I would personally like to see money spent on a shortstop, but if the value is right and the money is there, why not? We can go down the ladder to a few more reasonable options. Andrew McCutchen brings name recognition and a great clubhouse reputation, providing some true experience to a group of players who are largely in their 20s still, and he can be penciled in in left most days, though his age seems to be catching up to him. The same goes for J.D. Martinez, who has been one of the league's most dependable hitters as he reaches his mid-30s, though he's also showing signs of slowing down and would be restricted to DH. Brandon Drury had something of a pop-up season, and his market has yet to be determined, but if pro scouting believes in him, he could also fit into those plans and have more positional flexibility than the rest of the names on this list, except maybe Profar. Trey Mancini and Wil Myers are two names that have been getting thrown around for several teams as easy targets to fill a similar role with some level of positional flexibility. Brandon Warne seems to think that Luke Voit could be a match as a plug-and-play option at first. The list goes on and on. The bar for a serviceable righthanded corner outfielder/first baseman/designated hitter is so low. Personally, I'd love to see the team take a flyer on Adam Duvall to have a bounce back year returning from wrist surgery. His numbers look rough in his injury-shortened age-33 year, but he was really turning it on in with a 136 wRC+ in the 8 weeks before his injury after an abysmally slow start (49 wRC+ prior to May 28), and he provides centerfield insurance. All that is to say that the team acquiring one righthanded, starting-caliber player to provide some thump should not be a tall task. That player may result in one of the corner outfielders being pushed out (likely Kepler, but Larnach and Kirilloff as well, for the right price, could be on the move). If that additional player is a first baseman (Bell, Voit, Mancini unless you really squint) or DH-only (Martinez), Kirilloff would get more play out in left field. Moving Larnach over to right seems to be less of a scary topic given the solid arm that he's always been known to have and his surprising range exhibited last season. Gordon can also be used to take on some of the work against righties if, for example, a McCutchen-type signing struggles to hit vs. RHP consistently but can still knock around the lefties. Bonus points for signing Omar Narvaez and allowing Jeffers to bash lefties to his heart's content, too. Would you like to see the Twins add a righty bat? If so, who would be your #1 choice?