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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    It's also interesting that you describe the Twins as having very little clue on optimizing talent and then sing the praises at the same time. Did the Twins just get lucky with Polanco? A huge coincidence, seeing as how they also got lucky with Vargas, Santana, Arcia.....oh, and Dozier.
  2. bird
    And you're not necessarily wrong about Polanco. I hope you're right, and think you might be. But it won't be true during the first half of 2015, so what's the harm in letting the two of them get in each other's way for a half-season in 2015 and trading Dozier during the winter of 2015-16?
  3. bird
    Ideally, it would be nice to move the lead runner(s) along more than one base at a time just a little more often, I guess.
  4. bird
    We do NOT have a surplus of above-average middle infielders. Yet. None of the players mentioned- Santana, Escobar, Polanco, Michael, Gordon, and throw in Rosario too- are capable of matching Dozier's overall production at 2B right now. We're at the stage of the rebuild where no trades should be made which create rather than immediately fill a hole.
  5. bird
    Of course it's more than one player. That's why the roster will be about 80% turned over by this time next year. And that's a pillar of my argument that an improved Mauer isn't solving a top five problem. It's going to take a corner OF from elsewhere, and probably a young two-way catcher from outside, to supplement Santana, Dozier, Mauer, Vargas, Sano, Arcia, Buxton, and role players like Plouffe, Escobar, Polanco, and Rosario. But what I'm saying is that one or more of these guys has to step up and give us the kind of performance and leadership that every championship club gets from its best player.
  6. bird
    I don't see Mauer as a top five problem per se, but I do wonder how many players making $20M in a season fail to ever carry their team on their back for at least some short stretch during a season. We need our best hitter to be someone who looks to hammer a pitch when runners are on base, not look to coax a damn walk. I'd re-phrase the problem as a situation where we don't have that player- yet. Maybe Arcia can grow into that, as he seems to have a fire in his belly that's been missing from all outward appearances. Or maybe we have to wait for someone like Sano or Buxton.
  7. bird
    I can find a lot of things about which to criticize Gardy, but deciding Suzuki was his best alternative at catcher, and deciding that Santana was his best alternative in CF this year might in fact be two of his better decisions.
  8. bird
    First of all, I place close to zero credibility in the quote purportedly extracted from Ryan by Sir Sidney. I'm relying on the myriad of quotes that clearly state that this is not a certainty. That said, I have this nagging suspicion that Gardy is a goner, and that they have been leaning towards a change for over a year, but being the slowest-moving decision-makers imaginable, they just weren't quite ready to pull the trigger last fall. If it's Molitor, they may already have had secret conversations about who stays and who goes. And if it's surprisingly someone from the outside, I'd be inclined to think they would limit the new manager's authority and do what they've always done, which is make those decisions in-house and then describe them to us as a consensus decision. My guess is that Ryan's safe for now and will be firmly in charge of it.
  9. bird
    This makes sense. Although I remain skeptical that a significant part of the problem might stem from not being forceful enough in requiring guys to make adjustments in advance. And I noticed the announcement today that Bill Springman, roving minor league batting coach, has been let go. I also wonder if another factor is too few Latin American coaches in the system. Just a wild guess here that maybe we're seeing some signs that the Twins are going to be more open to some turnover in the future. Maybe just wishful thinking as well.
  10. bird
    Thanks for another great article, Parker. I've been wondering about the subject of why these types of seemingly detectable flaws are being "discovered" for the first time once they hit the big leagues, after having spent many years in the system. I'm thinking about Vargas being coached on footwork for a few hours by Tom Kelly as an extreme example of why I have this question in my head: Why the hell are these guys-Pinto, Arcia, Vargas, etc.- coming up here with purportedly correctable flaws? What have the instructors at the lower levels been up to? Sure wish we could get someone to really grill Brad Steil or someone on this subject.
  11. bird
    Well said regarding Buxton and Sano. I'd leave Santana, Plouffe, and Escobar in the lineup until those two supplant them and Santana pushes Escobar out. And it's not illogical to think that both of them would be ready to contribute some time in 2015. In fact it might be illogical to think they wouldn't. So, they have two massive holes: an above-average corner OF and a starter that projects to be as good as we thought Hughes was going to be, or better. I'd love it if they'd shop for a young catcher too. The bullpen will get overhauled and is a minor concern because we have good options there.
  12. bird
    The answer to your question from last week is that none of us are confused about the difference between bad baseball and good baseball. Furthermore, almost no one is satisfied with the quality of today's baseball at Target Field. A handful of us ARE satisfied with the level of progress being made. So perhaps the young man isn't properly distinguishing the difference between being satisfied with the progress versus being satisfied with the level of play.
  13. bird
    In fairness, I think one can state that the evidence supports the financial capacity is there to sign elite FA's, and I think there is logic to support that the Twins would be taking on a greater burden of risk (future "financial flexibility") than these richer teams. We 'll have all winter to hear the arguments and complaints and conjecture, but I'll throw my two cents out there now about why the Twins are unlikely to sign Scherzer or Lester . The first penny is that Ryan will decide whatever the winning bidder is paying is way to much for what they're going to get. The second reason is that Ryan will decide he can find what the Twins need elsewhere at an acceptable level of risk. He'll be satisfied with a pitcher who they see as a likely #2-3 starter, because they think they can fare well without a #1-2 starter as long as they have four guys they see as #2-3 starters in this league. Just my theory here.
  14. bird
    Yes you can. The rankings of farm systems is a relative ranking, right? So why can't you say they have an amazingly deep system with plenty of high-end talent and simultaneously claim that individual players within that system, even top 100 talents like Rosario, have limited ( probably a better word than little) trade value?
  15. bird
    that's cool, but if you're the GM, you gotta make a few predictions and place a couple bets here about 2015. you can't just go outside the system to find sure fire guys to play while relegating all the youngsters who still have something to prove to the minors. No guts, no glory: put these guys on the left side if you bet they would be plus contributors in 2015 and on the right side of the line otherwise. Arcia, Santana, Vargas, Meyer, May, Pinto, Sano, Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, Polanco, Berrios, Pressly, Tonkin, Oliveros, Milone, Pelfrey, Parmelee, Achter, Guerra, Pryor....you gotta make the call, and then you gotta fill the holes, and you gotta guess which holes are temporary and fill them accordingly. So, Ryan just can't ask for a wake up call when Buxton and Sano get there, he has to make a projection about it and live with it. And then be tarred and feathered by all the meanies at TD when a result goes bad.
  16. bird
    I agree with this, but I'd point out that we wouldn't necessarily HAVE to give up a Berrios or Meyer in a trade to solve say, the corner OF problem. Jason Adams was KC's 16th best overall prospect, down 10 spots from the beginning of the year. For the Twins, he isn't even our 16th best PITCHING prospect. We might be able to bundle lesser (to us) prospects and not mortgage our most optimal future at all. May alone might now fetch better than what he and Vanihole fetched a year ago.
  17. bird
    Probably a topic for a different thread, but I don't get the level of angst and pessimism about Sano and Buxton. One prediction of almost a zero chance they contribute at all next year. Really? I mean, last time I looked, Morneausie, Spansie, and General Soreness were all playing at very high levels, and Buxton is already ripping it in the batting cage and slated for the AZL, and Sano is recovering very well too. We have to remember that both of these guys are being talked about with superlatives never uttered about Gaetti and Puckett, and yet, reading some of the comments here, you'd think they're the second coming of Scott Stahoviak and Rich Becker.
  18. bird
    I agree with this in general, but with the caveat that it can make sense to trade from any surplus. Even prospect surplus.
  19. bird
    Brilliant!
  20. bird
    I'm sorry, mike, but this is so irrelevant. Which of the other off-seasons were featuring a rotation of the current quality? And if you are critical of starting 2015 with Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco and some combo of Meyer, Milone, May, Pelfry, and about 5 other back-end candidates (BTW, I am, and threw out an idea), please offer a thought to complement your complaint. I'm sure the mods will give you a special dispensation to offer ideas on a thread about offering ideas.
  21. bird
    So what would you do this winter?
  22. bird
    But what are your IDEAS?
  23. bird
    I want Ryan to be aggressive yet selective. Now he has trade ammo, he has a boatload of cash and an owner telling him he can spend it, and we're at the right stage in this three-year rebuild to go for quality. In past years, he's made his moves and banked on unproven or comeback players to come through. Hicks being the poster child of this. My wish list is a corner OF with two-way skills, hopefully more promising than say Victorino. If Hicks gets his act together, fine, you have a "surplus". Second, a frontline starter. A proven guy, not a projection like Meyer. In my mind, Hughes is a 2-3 guy, Gibson a 3-4 guy right now, Nolasco a 4-5 guy. Everyone else a 5-6 guy for now. Harsh grades, yes, but we have the money and the trade surplus to get another 2-3 guy or better ans slough off our back end surplus for low level prospects. Last, find me a catcher with at least Suzuki's offensive profile and better defense. Suzuki might regress, and would fetch something at the trade deadline.
  24. bird
    But we're finally in a position where we don't heve to settle for bad outfield play at 2-3 OF positions. And since it appears that the rotation is going to be the last piece to get fixed, we simply HAVE to have better outfield play in CF and LF, and if Arcia isn't an absolute beast offensively, he's an inadequate solution for RF, IMO. We gotta go outside the system and forget trying to jam all these round pegs into square holes. It's time.
  25. bird
    crappy crappy crappy crappy crappy
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