bird

I think most everyone would prefer to see the young guy be the one to step up. Emotionally, I felt deflated by the announcements of Nolasco, Stauffer, and now guys like Kintzler and Strong are emotional buzzkills. However, other buzzkills have been provided by injury and disappointing performances from the young guys. In the case of Meyer, WE don't know what he might've done had he been called up in 2014. But we should acknowledge the reality that his coaches had their fingers on the pulse and were in position to make a credible prediction about that. They might tell you his confidence didn't sag, but his arm angle did. Our desire to finally see these prospects at Target Field probably inhibits our willingness to accept as reasonable any explanation as to why a player wash't promoted.

I get your point, but I believe the greater issue is an irrational bias in favor of young guys by fans due to an exaggerated perception about how likely they would be to make a contribution. I'd suggest Meyer in 2014 is a classic example of this.

Do you have a link to back up this last statement? Kidding. No argument about this from me.

Spy, I find it amusing that anyone would claim there's been a lack of fault-finding as we paraded this collection out. The complaint I hear that I DO push back on is this mostly false narrative that young, MLB-ready pitchers have been systemically blocked or held back because the Twins have this rigid and brainless strategy in place to plunk a bunch of mediocre veterans out there in favor of qualified youngsters. You seem to be quite certain about this veteran strategy, no? My theory is that the Twins have a strategy to build from within via draft choices. The problem is that sometimes the strategy cannot be implemented due to a tragic dearth of young MLB-ready talent. I would argue that, had Burdi, or Tonkin, or any of the other prospects shown the coaches anything last year, you would have seen them at Target Field. You're attempting to make the case that Tonkin being passed up was ill-advised, right? I certainly doubt that Allen and Molitor trusted him but were over-ridden by Ryan. They all appear to disagree with an assessment that Tonkin could contribute. So, everyone I know WAS cringing at all the veterans you listed and rightly blasting Ryan for it. Meanwhile, lots of people on TD were declaring Burdi and Meyer to be ready, or calling for some of the other high-velo guys to be promoted. Often ignored was a reasonable discussion about exactly which of these young pitchers WAS actually ready to contribute and therefore a better candidate than a current veteran. Frankly, if the big push is for Ryan O'Rourke to come up and replace Thompson, I say don't even bother. But in any event let's dispense with this false narrative that the Twins have a strategy to play crappy veterans instead of MLB-ready young players.

I wonder if Boyer would've been a choice for the higher-leverage innings over Pressly if Pressly hadn't been hurt almost the entire year. Or over Tonkin if Tonkin had succeeded instead of failing. Or over Graham had Graham performed all year like he did during brief flashes early on. The Twins were, rightly or wrongly, counting on help from those three guys and perhaps Lester Oliveras, and they didn't get it. The Boyers and Stauffers were Plan B acquisitions in a way. Fast forward to 2016, and last year's Plan B guys are gone, and Tonkin, Pressly, and Graham, among many, many others, including Kintzler, are the Plan B guys, I believe, in the view of the Twins. I really do think the Plan A guys are Jepsen, May, Perkins, Fien, and then some combination of Abad, Meyer, Burdi, Chargois, and Reed. Again, rightly or wrongly. So, I think it's a little unfair to characterize the decision as choosing veterans and stifling the progress of younger pitchers. Like last year, it's about being ready to produce. Pressly, Graham, and Tonkin flunked the test via injury and poor performance in 2015, but will get a chance at redemption in 2016. We need one of those guys to step up, and we need a couple of the 2016 guys (my guess is Meyer and Burdi) to pass the test. If those guys are ready, Kintzler won't run the risk of being this year's Bower or worse Stauffer.

Who are you calling Kepler? I mean, how would YOU feel if someone called you ErnieBanks?

Name one.

The Justin Upton signing is an obvious and desperate attempt to temporarily cycle up into contention one last time before the bills start to come in. It might just work. But after 2016, they seem fairly destined for a sustained period of obscurity. The farm system outside of Norris, Fullmer and possibly one other guy is barren. They'll have years of contract obligations with almost nothing to show for it, and they've moved just about every prospect they have now. And the Upton signing is not going to be enough unless everything gels for them, most importantly Verlander and Sanchez. It's at least a possibility that Arcia and/or Park give the Twins about what Upton gives the Tigers, let alone a full year of Sano and a MLB-ready Buxton. Counting on productive starts from Norris, Fullmer and that one other guy is no better than counting on Berrios, Duffey and May to bolster the Twins rotation in 2016.

Okay, you got me. I cringed at the thought of Arcia and Sano flanking even Buxton. I think you convinced me that Fowler would be a decent idea, as I'd forgotten he was a FA. So, in my mind, if any three of Buxton, Rosario, Santana, Kepler, and Sano prove to be inadequate defensively out of the gate...and it certainly is possible that four of these guys leave something to be desired on opening day. I suppose Ryan thinks he's covered that potential "temporary" problem with Mastro, Sweeney, and Benson. It's a cobbled mess.

And sure, all six things could fall OUT of place to start the season, but how likely is THAT? Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Arcia, Santana, and Kepler. If you vote for four bad outcomes, you push for them to trade valuable assets off for Fowler I guess. Even if, for example, Buxton and Kepler are ready later in the year? That's where it gets questionable for me.

Actually, this may be the depth chart coming out of spring training for a reason other than that suggested by you, Levi, and Mike. 1. The Twins appear to be more confident in Sano's ability to perform in a corner OF spot than most of us. I can see him surprising us out there with his defense. 2. The light bulb could go off for Buxton. We might be quickly reminded about the kind of extraordinary impact scouts are projecting this player to offer. 3. Either or both Arcia and Santana could reclaim the stuff they showed us in glimpses. For both of them, the answer is very likely to come from straightening out what's in their heads. So, if Kepler is "better", great. But calling this situation a "cobbled mess" is extreme to me. Uncertainty, yes, a mess, no. As for Kepler, I'm excited about a couple of things. First Bernardo reports that other teams kept asking about him this winter, which is nice affirmation. Second, Molitor's comments are glowing and somewhat telling. He said he's looking forward to seeing if Kepler puts himself "in the mix" during spring training. I know it's popular around these parts to immediately assume the Twins will favor a less deserving veteran. But I think Molitor would be fairly assertive if he thought Kepler was ready and the third best starting option to start the season.

Yeah, it's simply amazing to me that this organization continues its long history of ineptitude when it comes to public relations.

In order to have the same conversation, we might have to agree about what we generally see in AAA versus in AA. With a few exceptions at a given moment AAA is filled with guys who are MLB ready but just not quite good enough talent-wise, whereas AA is filled with guys who are good enough talent-wise but just not quite ready. From a development standpoint, I doubt there's a huge discrepancy regarding which level is better for a guy who maybe has a thing or two left to work on or just needs a tad more experience. The placement decision probably has little to do with the level of play and more to do with which environment offers the better playing opportunity and teaching conditions.

It's difficult to look back and then put everything into proper perspective. We tend to elevate our level of optimism about our own prospects. I try to remind myself about how dismal the success rate is, and remember that the success rate starts to fall off a cliff even before the end of the first round. And by the second round, expect one in six to ultimately become a contributing MLB regular. If one gets a Google Machine and points it at The Interweb, one might see a study or two, perhaps from a site called BA, that supports this. Whether a team has a "strategy" of selecting high-velo pitchers (low-velo pitchers throw hard too) or athletic outfield prospects with their non-first round picks, the odds absolutely suck for those prospects, like 17% success for a 2nd rounder and that falls off to closer to 5% for a 5th round guy IIRC. Worse I'd guess for pitchers because of the injury toll. I'm not sold on an intense focus on drafting high-velo guys in those early rounds, although it might be that there aren't many left to pick from after the early rounds other than the types who grow into their bodies and increase their velo. So, if the odds of MLB success are roughly one in six for guys picked after the first round, we should probably feel fortunate if two or three of these guys pan out.

Maybe I'm being fooled (probably am), but I felt better after listening to what Ryan said during his interview with MLB.com yesterday. Essentially, he said the team has quantity but needs to upgrade the quality, and he was quite clearly referring to pitching. This leads me to think they're focused on perhaps a single target, and this would be an understandable departure from past years when there were lots of holes to fill. For me, I will be disappointed if Ryan fails to find one upgrade that meets or exceeds the Jepsen Standard. Sipp and Bastardo types. My hunch is the internal BP options will be a pleasant surprise to us in 2016, but they need that one high-leverage lefty.

My disappointment regarding Pinto occurred two years ago, when it became clear that, after a decade of minor league ball, his catching skills were still below MLB standards in the eyes and minds of the pros who saw him in action every day and were able to competently assess every aspect of his performance. And unfortunately for Josmil, his battle with concussions probably puts the nail in the coffin on his future as anything other than a DH. It might be a long shot for him to become league average as a DH as well.

So they took a chance on Bard instead of going with the sure thing? Impossible.

For sure, the results have been a mixed bag. I'm still unwilling to concede that the "strategy" is flawed. I base that on the overall history of failure of all picks for all teams past the top half of the first round. The injury history for these high-velo pitchers is almost shocking. But the Twin's track record is definitely spotty going back to Shooter Hunt, Carlos Guttierrez, and Billy Bullock. Since then, injury, and not faulty selection, is to blame for much of the subdued optimism: Bard, Chargois, Melotakis, Jones, Romero, Landa, Curtiss, Cedaroth, and a few others. Expectations maybe got a little out of control (pun intended) regarding Burdi and Reed. But those two have issued zero walks in about 20+ innings so far in Arizona, so things are looking up for them. And we have others in the pipeline too: Peterson, Booser, Rosario, Jorge, etc., let alone guys who may still emerge like Pressly, Tonkin, Graham, and Meyer. It's important to note that every one of the pitchers named here possess good velocity, and that I'm not talking about guys like Hildenberger, Baxendale, Darnell, Rogers, etc. Something tells me that before the end of the 2016 season, relief pitching might be described as a real strength rather than a catastrophic weakness.

#1 by a long shot for me was Ervin Santana being a cheater. 2. Arcia being utterly futile in every respect. 3. Mauer. Sigh. 4. Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana , and Josmil Pinto going 0 for 3 in terms of establishing themselves as part of the future. 5. Alex Meyer.

Fantastic job with the homework on this guy, thrylos. We should root hard for this man.

Let's think about it another way though. Teams have to get power and extra base production from somewhere, The chances of getting to from C, SS, 2B, or CF are generally limited. That's the reason historically that teams look to the corners for that kind of production. So, a team can sacrifice that type of production from one or two corners, but only if they're getting it elsewhere, right? I think you might be right when it comes to the Twins, but that's assuming your 2016 power production comes from 2B, 3B, DH, and ???. The caveat about "corner OF type" is that power production has to come from somewhere else if Mauer is manning 1B for example.

Yeah, I agree with your first two sentences. Radke was never an ace. James Shields? He's a 1/2. Whereas Radke was a 2/3. What makes me uncomfortable is that Ryan probably disagrees with me, based on his love affair with innings pitched and blinders in place about other qualities. But in fairness, it's not that easy to find guys who, year after year, will give you front-end performance, especially due to the injury factor. Right now, Ryan has a bunch of fence-sitters in the rotation. In a good year, they can fall off the front-end side, and in bad years they can become back-end guys. Such is the fickle nature of things for pitchers, so I can't completely diss him for liking durable innings-eaters with quality, i.e. guys who are usually 2/3 and sometimes 2/3. That's what he has with Hughes, Santana, and maybe Gibson. Give me five guys in a rotation who have a fairly decent chance to give me a 2/3 year and I'll take my chances that some guy like Price pitches like a 2/3 come playoff time. That is, if my other choice is a 9 figure contract.

Danny needs a hug. I'd hug him.

This list features 3 guys who are trying to climb back into the picture. It reminded me of just how many promising former and present prospects we have that fit in that category: Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Melotakis. Romero, Bard, Pinto, Wimmers, Michael, Chargois, Meyer, and Thorpe. The Twins need 4-5 of these guys to become either part of the future or valuable assets on the trade market.

Given all the pros who value Butera as much much more than a BP catcher, shouldn't we question, just a little bit, the use of bWAR as the be-all and end-all when discussing a player's value?