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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    I can see how you think this. Someone penned an article yesterday, asking rhetorically if Neil Huntington and Dayton Moore suddenly got smarter. And I agree that Moore was probably very concerned about his job at the time of the trade. But I strongly disagree that there were any people in positions of influence in KC that thought they were making the Shields trade in a desperate attempt to get to .500. Not even Dayton. They are a very competent organization now, from a scouting and drafting perspective. Moore is the GM, and KC has surrounded him with some very competent people in their scouting and development system. My hunch is that every move being made requires other signatures from within the organization, especially something like the Shields trade. I also doubt Moore's imprint on their Rule 4 draft success is significant. And if we read carefully, we're witnessing Moore giving out effusive praise and credit, as he should, to these people. I haven't heard him talk about it as " my process", but rather more as "our rebuild strategy".
  2. bird
    I respectfully disagree with your first conclusion, mike. I believe KC knew exactly where they were in the rebuild process when they made the Shields trade. But you're right, TR will probably never trade a truly impact prospect for a MLB player. Why? Because his third most-valuable prospect, Alex Meyer, nets him a non-impact player like, say, Span. He has two prospects or so that fit the Will Myers profile, would you agree? Maybe he thinks Rosario will be better than Span by mid-year, just like maybe he thought Santana would be better than Stephen Drew, we don't know. But why trade a top prospect whose value is yet to be realized for a player who isn't a game-changer for you?
  3. bird
    KC is a great example in support of this. Butler, Moustakis, and Hosmer were all much more highly regarded as top 10 draft choices than Arcia, Santana, and Vargas, and look how they have struggled early in their careers. The light at the end of the tunnel is that most of these supremely talented players eventually figures it out to at least some extent, although very few hit their heads on their hometown fans' envisioned ceiling it seems.
  4. bird
    In assessing how KC became WS capable, it's important to note that those players you're referring to were acquired by trading drafted assets such as Greinke and Will Myers. KC put themselves over the top with a good trade as the final step in their rebuild, and I expect the Twins will attempt to do the same thing at the same point in time. But I don't think we should lose sight of the fact that, when KC finally settled on their strategy (15 years or so into the "rebuild") and began to execute it, it was through the draft, period. They stopped with the Betancourt/Guillen stopgap stuff, took their lumps, and held on to their young big leaguers (Greinke excepted) AND their prospects UNTIL they got to a point where they finally had some surplus of talent to use in trades. Note the absence of free agency as a key piece of their rebuild. This spring, Dayton Moore was still being called an idiot and a dinosaur. KC's strategy was still often ridiculed despite the evidence of the 2013 season. What's interesting to me is the similarities among a number of teams regarding rebuilding. I recall reading an article by Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune from last March, I think. He convinced me that the strategy of the Royals, Cubs, Twins, and the Cards even, for that matter, were almost identical. The differences were simply due to the stage in the cycle for each team, and execution. And the most important elements in the strategy? Use free agency only as a last resort, focus resources on the draft and international markets, and trade from surplus to supplement.
  5. bird
    Geez, my bad again. I guess, since you were specifically discussing the Twins, that it was more than a random hypothetical statement about just any old team.
  6. bird
    The Royals became a playoff caliber team because they accumulated one elite prospect after another via the Rule 5 draft. At the beginning of the season when you suggested in so many words (yes, mike, you did) that KC was a poor model to emulate, I was saying the opposite and predicting they might give the Tigers a run for their FA money. The last trade for Shields and Davis was a great success, one that put them over the top, and it's precisely the type of move I hope and think the Twins will make in a year or two when THEY are on the cusp. The Shields trade is what "caused" them to transform into a playoff caliber team? No way. They are in the WS because they ignored impatient fans and built primary and with great perseverance through th draft.
  7. bird
    I don't understand what point you're trying to make with your last two responses to me, my friend, but it really doesn't appear to pertain to any point being made by me. I have no interest in arguing in circles or picking a fight, OK?
  8. bird
    Well, the Sox had few minor league players to rely on. Remember, you and I had the conversation in the spring about Eric Anderson, Matt Davison (acquired for one of their very top prospects, Addison Reed), and Micah Johnson. Johnson and Davidson really disappointed big time, and Micah Johnson is probably not a true impact player, and was certainly not enough. The Sox wisely went the trade route and "overbid" for Abreu. The Twins, OTH, expected to have Sano and Buxton until late in the offseason, but they also had other options, as we saw play out with May, Vargas, Santana, and a few others. So they took the same route of using FA to get Nolasco and Hughes, but Ryan decided against trades to further improve 2014, for better or for worse, depending on your viewpoint.
  9. bird
    I'd go with this except keep Santana in CF and Escobar at SS until Buxton is ready. No need to use trade chips or cash for a short-term fix in CF when Santana can be adequate.
  10. bird
    You could be about a half-year early with some of these guys, but yeah, let's deal a couple of the old group at the trade deadline if these guys are ready, even if the Fiens and Thielbars are doing well. Sell from surplus.
  11. bird
    Yes, because they were rather low on other options to dramatically improve in 2014. They outbid everyone for Abreu because they needed to react to their rather gloomy situation. And remember, the Sox had a scandal with their international scouts awhile back, which hurt their credibility internationally. So they needed a big score, and to their credit, they got one. As for the question about teams "buying international FA over the past 3 years? Not sure what you'd be driving at, but I'd guess ALL teams are participating in international markets, and dong so does not constitute the kind of reactive move winning the Abreu bidding war suggests.
  12. bird
    I apologize. I missed it then every time.
  13. bird
    And I'm sorry, my friend, but you have ignored the possible impact of the draft order VERY consistently throughout all our friendly conversations over the years, not once acknowledging it when I brought it up. But at least you're finally acknowledging that you have to go back a few year to find a draft year that busted, so that's progress. Now, if we can temper things a bit from "they stink at developing players" to something more in line with reality and fairness...
  14. bird
    Elaborating on how much better the Sox, among most other teams, are so much better than the Twins, who by your account stink at developing players despite having a high draft order: After Rodon, of the next half-dozen top Sox prospects, NONE were ranked among Sickle's updated top 75 prospects. I think SIX Twins were. The highest grade given any of them was B- and two were C/C+. The lowest ranking for the Twin's half-dozen top prospects, excluding Buxton, was a B+, with Sano ranked as A. Their Tim Anderson (B-) is our Gordon, ranked #42 Their Montas is our Meyer, ranked #31 Their Micah Johnson is our Polanco Their Hawkins, our Sano Their Spencer Adams, our Berrios Their Tyler Danish, our Kohl Stewart And our next six probably grade out ahead of all, or at least most, of the Sox #'s 2-7: May, Burdi, Thorpe, Rosario, ABWIII, Rogers. Give the Sox credit for Abreau and some good trades to shore up a declining team, and for a good draft in 2014. But please, don't insinuate that they're somehow upstaging the Twins right now.
  15. bird
    Well, we were discussing Abreu, because last year it WAS just about FA for the Sox, as their farm system had zero to offer for 2014. But yes, it appears the Whitie's farm system, which was ranked #28 by at least one source last year, is improving rapidly. And as you of all people know, mike, this is because they don't stink at developing players, unlike the Twins. It has absolutely nothing to do with the draft order.
  16. bird
    Nah, mike, not EVERYONE, just you. To shorten it, just leave off several off your standard negatives.
  17. bird
    Uh, I didn't see anything in the Hughes/Suzuki sentence that connoted "good", but good, we agree, as I thought we might, about good moves like hughes and Suzuki versus bad ones like Bartlett and Kubel. This is a good topic for another thread, but you are seeing the Abreu move as mutually exclusive of their farm development, and a modest risk. I see it as 100% a reaction to their farm system, but I also saw it as a huge but understandable risk for them to take. Fortunately for them, they hit the jackpot, so give them credit. Now they just need to take the same type of gamble 2-3 more times, and voila, they're in the hunt for a wild card slot. I'll take my chances on Sano and Buxton getting us there faster, for a lot less, with a better chance to stay there.
  18. bird
    Here we go again. The Twins stink at developing players. Want proof? Ryan hasn't failed to lose 90 games during his return. If one continues, thread after thread, to insist that this fact is the sole burden of evidence that the Twins stink at developing players, then one is right. You win, mike wants wins. The Twins absolutely, positively stink at developing players. Because four straight years of 90+ losses. You're absolutely on the nut about this.
  19. bird
    Um, Chief, how do you know what the 2104 payroll will be? I'd also suggest here that every team you mention has a higher payroll than the Twins because they've reached a point where they are a playoff-caliber team. Souhan is taking a narrow look for sure, but so is anyone who isn't correlating the talent and the number of years that talent has been in place to the payroll number.
  20. bird
    Absolutely, spy cake. Criticize the results. Lay off the disingenuous meme. That way, we can argue instead about how bad the Hughes and Suzuki moves were. Or about the importance of leapfrogging someone in the standings to capture fourth place and whether even remaining in fourth place is very likely for the Whities, let alone taking the next several steps with a pathetically bare farm system. And maybe, when discussing the dismal results to-date, we can also mention other very positive things (May, several new RP candidates, Santana, Vargas), or the fact that we now have a loaded farm system with a number of impact players on the cusp (Meyer, Burdi, Buxton, Rosario, Tonkin, Sano, Berrios, Polanco). That way, no one gets called out for lacking integrity, the criticism is more balanced, and anyone who is either happy or unhappy with the pace of change is welcome to that point of view
  21. bird
    Sorry, my bad. I didn't realize you were discussing a PR and marketing strategy that was carried out two years ago by the Twins to specifically persuade the public that they'd be competitive in September. I don't recall the campaign. I guess I just assumed, in a thread about Ryan's statements, that you meant Ryan and not the whole St. Peter-led PR juggernaut.
  22. bird
    I'm calling mike out, mostly to rib him a bit, for criticizing something as innocuous as the words TR used, and then to suggest TR might be a liar, although I'm confident it was a rhetorical device on mike's part. I bet we could go back and find a quote from 70% of all GM's in that same time frame about their team playing meaningful games in September. Over 50% of them would be wrong like Ryan, in an innocuous sort of way that makes it a weak target for criticism.
  23. bird
    Whenever the subject of payroll comes up, we get mired in the same stuff: the 50% stuff, the relative payroll stuff, the tax subsidy stuff. Because of the unbalanced way this stuff is often presented, it IS essentially a "spend money to spend money" argument. If you want to retire what you think of as a straw man on spending, I have a suggestion: let's begin every conversation about payroll spending with specifics and dispense with the same old same old. I'll start, mike. " Via trade or FA, Mr. Ryan, find me a two-way corner OF that is better than today's version of Hicks or Schaefer. Overspend for Melky if you have to, or spend less if you can, but give us results, sir. Second, pull off another Phil Hughes this off-season, via either FA or trade. Maybe a Leake or a Latos, I don't know, but you said you might have to overspend to do something. If you don't have to overspend, fine, but we need results, sir. And if you want to exceed our expectations, find us a young cost-controlled catcher with a higher ceiling than Suzuki. We're not asking you to outbid for Lester for 7 years. We get it, Mr. Ryan. But stop talking in generalized statements, especially ones that scare up more vitriol, and go fill a couple of the remaining holes." Now, someone will always come back with the "buy us an ace" demand, and that's fine, because then the discussion can stay on more solid footing about the wisdom of that sort of spending, and we avoid the temptation to attack Ryan, Pohlad, and each other.
  24. bird
    Ask the Tigers if they were playing a competitive Twins team in September, mike. I'm well aware that your definition of competitive will be much different than anyone associated with the Twins, but maybe you're the one who's wrong here. I'd never question your integrity and suggest you might be lying though, because that is so disrespectful and insulting.
  25. bird
    These assumptions about the state of Sano's defense and the readiness of his offense have been the questions for me. Someone is going to have to convince me that Sano's development as a hitter is way advanced compared to his defense, either because his defense is terrible or his offense is spectacular, because I'm not really hearing that from the pros and I'm not convinced otherwise based on the metrics being tossed around.
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