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LoganJones

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Everything posted by LoganJones

  1. LoganJones
    Hanrahan has little to no value to the Dodgers who are flush with swell right handed bullpen options. The Twins would be better off trying to get Capuano and Lilly. Pay both of their salaries in full in exchange for a halfway decent prospect and a not so good one. Maybe a lefty relief prospect and Benson, just to further deplete the CF depth. Really, I bet the first team willing to take 100% of their contracts will get them for whoever. I know the Dodger have money, but they can't actually want to be paying 16 Million to pitch in AAA, in case of injury.
  2. LoganJones
    Taken on comparative value to last year, Dempster's normalized numbers do provide quite the boost to the 2k12 numbers. Correia and Worley are already in the fold, like it or not. That's got the rotation down 50-55 runs. Poke in Dempster and that would drop an additional 30-40 Runs. The fluctuation is weather we calculate actual innings pitched per start, averaging only one starter's numbers to fill the gap. I tried to guess who would have got those starts, but the back end of the rotation was so sad, it really doesn't mater much. The actual start thing gives the rotation a lot more innings, as we're able to throw out whole players. Not that ou can do that in reality, since things are connected, but still. We're trying calculate relative value to evaluate contract worthiness. So while the runs allowed tend to be higher, since we have to take on some of the lesser outings, the over all innings pitched by the starters goes up, because we're able to avoid all those short starts. This means that with Dempster, the rotation could have given as much as 40 extra innings last year. That's lie never having to use Maloney, Manship or Some of the longer outings for Swarzak. There appears to be a lot of value there to Dempster, on a two year deal, of course. Hard to see that 3rd year working out. Might be even better to toss more cash at Sanchez.
  3. LoganJones
    Why would they want to do that? They being Texas.
  4. LoganJones
    He wanted to stay in the NL.
  5. LoganJones
    I would Imagine that Gardy has been given a short leash to prove he is going to do things differently. He probably admitted to the uppers that he felt he was responsible and was willing to change his approach. If the season starts out the same, and we're seeing the same 'it ain't me' act, he probably will be axed.
  6. LoganJones
    Wilson likes his buffoon act too much. He's not likely to be very effective this year which will make his buffoonery grating rather than endearing. He's a pass. Soriano, on the other hand, if he's willing to swallow the crow whole and be a setup man for a few months until the deadline and a desperate team needs a closer, it'd be a good sign.
  7. LoganJones
    Marcum is definitely worth a decent offer. If he is in the mood for a 3 year deal, of course. Mutual option for a 4th, if he's feeling choosy.
  8. LoganJones
    One last bit that's interesting, and less dependent on averaging. If you just use NormalizedCorreia to make 29 starts and knock out out Blackburn and Marquis's starts, you're left needing 2 Swarzak starts which were pretty much all 4 inning 4 run affairs, so we can say that's 9.1 innings of 8.1 ERA. Then we mostly are using actual starts that actually happened (apart from the computer starts that NormCor made). The only issue would be rest, but since were just trying to place value, we can forgive some of these slight inaccuracies. This gives the starting rotation 896 inning allowing 491 runs. This means NormCor is worth 37 runs to last year's rotation. That's almost 4 wins (18.5 Million in FanGraphs dollars). This contract is NOT that outrageous.
  9. LoganJones
    Here's what the 'normalized' stats for Correia do. We keep the 3 Most effective starters we had last year. AKA the ones who kept a decent ERA, Diamond, DeVries and Deduno. We leave their innings intact. We then input Correia's adjusted numbers. This leaves us with 379 1/3 innings to fill. If we keep it averaged, aka we got 380 innings of 6.36 (the ERA of the rest of the guys who trotted out there) the rotation surrenders 502 runs. That's 26 runs less than the original total. AKA 2.6 Wins. This is calculated at fangraphs to be worth roughly 13 million on the open market. Unless we're arguing that Fangraphs WAR value is inaccurate, Correia last year was worth more than he's reportedly contracted for 2013-14 to the Twins.
  10. LoganJones
    Did you bother to check that the past two seasons and see that that line beats Every pitcher we've run out there for the past two seasons for more than 100 innings apart from Pavano and Baker (22 starts) in 2011 and Diamond in 2012. It might be uninspiring, but Correia is an improvement.
  11. LoganJones
    Also good to note that our middle infield defense was above average last year even with all the rotating. Third and first struggled according to fangraphs. Justin Struggled last year with a UZR/150 of -3.9 after 6 straight years of positive values there. Odds are if he's right it will go back up. Trevor had the most innings at 3b, and showed a UZR/150 of -9.2 Florimon will likely get the most play at Short, where he was +5. I'm betting on Carroll everyday over at 2B were he was 9.4. Eduardo Escobar will be the utility guy and has shown great range at all three positions in his career. This looks to be at least a +2 net infield, so basically neutral to above average for ground ball pitchers.
  12. LoganJones
    Correia has surrendered 35 unearned runs in his 1066 IP. King Felix 1620.1, 69. CC 2564.1 97. Halladay 2687.1, 100. Johan 2025.2, 52. Scott Diamod 212, 11. He's ahead of Felix's pace, but behind Johan. I doubt unearned runs have a lot to do with pitchers.
  13. LoganJones
    Your first mistake is relying in LaVelle to get Terry to tell him their plan. I think by now people will have realized that the organization has little to no respect for him and do not allow scoops to head his way. It is pretty comical to watch a bunch of entitled fans carping on the big league staff with their fantastic theories. Every year I wonder, but never bother to research, who were the best free agent acquisitions. These deals usually don't work out, is my feeling on it, but I don't even know how to research it, really.
  14. LoganJones
    Just because you don't think something should be true, doesn't negate it: Pirates Prospects » What Should You Expect From Each Rotation Spot? Depending on what you truly believe Correia's ERA will settle out at in the AL, His career starter numbers have fluctuated between #2 and #5, most commonly straddling 3/4. It's what is actually happening in the leagues. Although I will account for the possibility that the past couple of years have edged those numbers down, as offenses have been less productive. As seen elsewhere, Correia has done quite well in 100 interleague innings. Of course this is hardly any indication how he will do on a regular basis, it does suggest that perhaps he isn't going to completely melt down when not getting 2-3 free outs a game.
  15. LoganJones
    If 5 mil a year for a #3-4 starter (Go look up the actual ERAs of those rotation positions, please) staggers you, I hope you were lying down when you saw the Grienke deal.
  16. LoganJones
    The reason Baker at 5.5 guaranteed is an Overpay has nothing to do with his talent and everything to do with the likelihood that he won't pitch 15 games for the Cubs. It's not a 'bad contract', though. It only becomes a bad contract if he can't pitch any games. Or if you pay him 5.5 mil to rehab, look good in late season work and then sign with the Cards or Brewers and beat the Cubbies for years after.
  17. LoganJones
    Which I don't. Or the reporters aren't trying as hard / making up rumors. Seriously. It takes a special kind of myopia to honestly think the Twins didn't send their offers on to each and every one of the pitchers whose agent would take their calls. What's in it for the Twins to bust a bunch of dollars over what they see as fair value for any of these guys? A few less grumpy tweets and message board posts? They know what they value these guys at, and right now, these guys think they're worth more and plan on getting it. Most likely, the hang ups are not even about dollars/years. More like opt-outs, no trade clauses and option years. Just look at the ridiculous terms on Greinke's deal. In order to keep the no trade off the books he got an opt-out in case he gets all cy-youngy again and wants to grab even more dollars. But if he stinks? Dodgers won't be able to trade him and he'll be Barry Zitoing his way through all that cash.
  18. LoganJones
    Another way to look at it is that a byproduct of the Span trade frees up room to get Correia and a non-tender like Jurrjens, without prohibiting Marcum, Sanchez or Jackson. There are other factors that are ultimately frustrating those efforts.
  19. LoganJones
    There hasn't been any confirmation of this deal. I wonder what the hang up is.
  20. LoganJones
    Of course they are trying to acquire quality arms. The going rate for 1 Win pitchers is apparently 5 Mil a year. Dan Haren was a 1.8 Win pitcher last year and got 13 Million. I'm sure the Twins could have signed Correia (.9 win) to a 1 year deal for roughly 6.5-7 Million. He gave a per year discount in exchange for a little annual security. Plus: is this deal even official?
  21. LoganJones
    Do you wish we had just traded Miguel Sano, Kyle Gibson, That Lefty LaVele Likes and the AFL surprise kid? Would that make you excited for James Shields?
  22. LoganJones
    Stop being intentionally obtuse or too lazy to go look it up, or whatever. Sure their total numbers for the last 3 years are similar. The major difference is the direction they are trending in. As of last season, Correia is a considerably better option than Blackburn.
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