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cmathewson

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Everything posted by cmathewson

  1. cmathewson
    Sorry, misread that. My bad.
  2. cmathewson
    Yes. The year he was with the Twins.
  3. cmathewson
    Boone went from a 7 WAR to a 1.1 WAR in 1 year. He went from an OPS+ of 85 to 12 in the same period.
  4. cmathewson
    Chuck Knoblach, Brett Boone, Luis Castillo.... Aside from a few outliers, middle infielders do not last long into their 30s. Read Bill James. He built the age/performance bell curve, according to which guys peak at 28 or so and start to decline at 30. Small middle infielders tend to have a steeper decline than other players because of the demands of their positions. Jamey Carroll is already an extreme outlier to James' model. But we saw last year how slow he got at short after just 6 weeks of everyday play out there. Hence the first Dozier experiment and the current Florimon experiment.
  5. cmathewson
    The Cuddyer demotion was particularly damaging. Kind of a worst-case scenario, since he got hurt in AAA and missed most of the season in which he should have been breaking out.
  6. cmathewson
    Yeah, I was a bit hasty in the quote I pulled. The sentence immediately after said "He's also very good at second and has performed reliably in brief action at third base, though his arm is marginal there." I regret not including that line. Also, Sickels' post was from the time that the Dozier Experiment meant playing short to the end of 2012 (one they concluded was a lost cause in August). I agree with you that the comment now holds, as the Dozier Experiment means playing second to the end of 2013.
  7. cmathewson
    One game of catching one pitcher is the paradigm case of small sample sizes. This is where the whole framing issue falls down, imho. The main problem with sss is the glut of variables. In this case, the uncontrolled variables mostly have to do with the umpires' varying strike zones not lining up with Pitch F/X. The larger the sample sizes, the smaller the margin for error in a stat set that does not control all variables. Framing is like UZR: It only has validity in sample sizes of about a season or more. This is my main issue with UZR/150. Extrapolating insights from small samples ignores the fact that the insights are within the margin of error.
  8. cmathewson
    No. I made one search: "Sickels Brian Dozier" It was the first result. I read the article for about 20 seconds, pulled the quote, and published. Total time to dispute the claim that "no talent evaluator thinks he's more than a util infielder" was 30 seconds tops. I could do some more digging if you like, but I don't have to justify John Sickels' authority.
  9. cmathewson
    This. Especially Corriea, whom he has caught with Pittsburgh. If I were the manager, I would just make Doumit Correia's personal catcher and let him DH the rest of the time. I certainly would not blame the catcher for Hencriks' issues. He's fine as long as he attacks the strike zone. But good hitters sometimes hit good pitches. When that happens, he gets timid and starts nibbling primarily with offspeed pitches. This leads to being behind in the count and having to come in with fastballs toward the middle of the plate. Good hitters usually hit those pitches hard. And he spirals down from there. I've seen the pattern 20 times. His first start was no different. Also, Doumit hurt his team worse in his first start by dropping a sure out at home on a perfect throw from Hicks and a perfect relay from Escobar.
  10. cmathewson
    Good Job Nick. It makes perfect sense to me. One thing I was thinking about is the affect of a day off. By my maths, Hicks played more innings than any other ballplayer in the majors this spring. Then he has played all nine innings of every game until last night. It looks like today's game will be rained out. So he might get a three-day break before Friday's game. Hopefully, the rest will refresh his mind so he can start fresh on Friday.
  11. cmathewson
    Not according to the talent evaluators that John Sickels talks to:
  12. cmathewson
    They care. They just don't agree with Dave. Dozier was the Minor League Player of the year two years ago for a reason: The organization thinks very highly of him. Of course he could go the way of Casilla "and so many others". It's entirely possible. It's just not all that likely. I'm OK with questioning stuff and calling out mistakes that were made, but to accuse the organization of not caring or not trying all that hard is cynical in the extreme.
  13. cmathewson
    I highly doubt that. His range is meh. He's very sure handed and gets on base. Both good things. But he doesn't get to many balls and he has the weakest arm of the four middle infielders on the team. So he is kind of a player coach. Not a bad thing considering the youth of the other guys.
  14. cmathewson
    He's 39 years old. He wears out easy. Guys his age can go from a 3.5 WAR to a -3.5 WAR in one year if you're not careful. Plus, as the Chief said, we're not playing for this year. So why invest a lot of playing time in a guy who will be retired when the team next contends? At this point, he's basically a second bench coach.
  15. cmathewson
    The Twins had one bat on the bench who is better than Dozier and Florimon hitting after Dozier, with a two-run deficit. Perhaps Gardy thought his best chance to tie the game or take the lead was with Dozier getting on base and Ramirez knocking him in. Pinch hitting for Dozier in that situation equates to hoping Ramirez hits a homer. Seems like longer odds than taking your chances with Dozier and pinch hitting for Florimon.
  16. cmathewson
    $550K = five years of good wages. It takes five years to make the majors. Until then, the minor league minimum is like $30K + meal money or something, before taxes. They certainly don't get rich off of signing bonuses.
  17. cmathewson
    Yes. Dave claims he has been calling for the Twins to dump Dozier since before he even got his shot at short last year. That would be the year after he won the organization's Minor League Player of the Year award. Admittedly, that says as much about the lack of quality prospects in the org. in 2011. But it also says Dozier is a decent prospect who could become a solid major leaguer if given the chance. The closest viable alternative (Rosario) is in Fort Myers. That's at least two years away. At that time, I might be calling for the end of the Dozier era. Barring an acquisition, it makes little sense to call for it before 2015.
  18. cmathewson
    This. Guys take time to develop. Physically, they don't hit their maturity until they're 26, typically. Mentally, maturity might not happen until they're 27 or 28. In Dozier's case, he also has to deal with a position change (which Plouffe went through last year). By all accounts, he's handling that well. But that takes a mental toll at the plate. Give him time to adjust. He'll never be an all-star. But he can be a solid major leaguer if they just give him a chance to learn and develop. This is supposed to be a year when we develop a new middle infield, center fielder and right fielder, and solidify third base. It's not supposed to be a year when we fixate on every game like it's Game 7 of the World Series. One of the reasons we have had revolving doors at both middle infield positions is the constant need to win every game, and the fixation on failure that comes along with it. We want these guys to develop in a winning atmosphere. But they also need the room to fail. Players develop by learning to avoid making the same mistakes multiple times--by making adjustments. If you fixate on the mistakes, you never give them the chance to adjust.
  19. cmathewson
    Can we please end the Plouffe era? Can we please end the Parmelee era? Can we please end the Hicks era? Can we please end the Florimon era? Can we please end the Doumit era? Can we please end the Escobar era? .....
  20. cmathewson
    Perkins and Burton, no question. Duensing can be serviceable if used correctly. I like Pressly a lot. Roenicke is above average, based on his numbers last year. I'm hopeful that both Harden and Perez will be healthy and above average. If not, Tonkin has a shot to be special. I'm kind of torn on Fien. I like what I see, but I have no idea if it will be sustainable over a whole season. Swarzak is a long guy and mop-up guy. If you keep him in that role, he's a useful guy to keep around. That's good depth.
  21. cmathewson
    Burton was unavailable. Robertson had struck out Fielder in exactly the same situation in the Tigers series. This time, it didn't work out. Now he's in Rochester.
  22. cmathewson
    It's early. But Gardy's only mistake so far was using Robertson on Friday night. That has as much to do with the fact that Robertson lost his fastball in the offseason. On paper, you go with the match up. Otherwise, Gardy has managed this bullpen really well. The better those arms get out there, the easier it will be to manage it. Swarzak helps. When he can add Perez and Harden, it will be one of the better bullpens in the league. At this point, it will be hard to find room for those guys. That's a good problem to have. As for Hendriks, if he pitches on Wednesday like he did Friday, he will be in Rochester by the end of the week. His replacement in that scenario (Hernandez) will be keeping the spot warm for Gibson, who I predict will make his debut sometime in May, unless Deduno takes it from him. I can't remember when the Twins had this much depth in the rotation.
  23. cmathewson
    I appreciate the optimism, even if it's sarcastic.
  24. cmathewson
    Just keep winning series and see what happens. Got Swarzak back today. We'll get Diamond back on Friday. Deduno can't be that far behind. Any news on Perez and Harden?
  25. cmathewson
    That's Burton's role. But he can't pitch three games in a row. So, Rich Harden, when he's ready, I guess.
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