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cmathewson

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Everything posted by cmathewson

  1. cmathewson
    This makes sense to me. Steil was overhyping Santana, mostly because Buxton is a stronger version of Santana with way better hit and power tools. But the fact that they are in the same conversation is encouraging.
  2. cmathewson
    Torn ACLs will derail careers, whether you are 18 or 34. But I often see a maturity after the long rehab that makes guys better. At least initially, his legs should be fresher and stronger than they were prior to injury. As I said, he can hit. He's proven that. I'm more worried that he's lost a step from age than injury. I see him as a replacement for Caroroll with more power and speed. Beresford probably has the better glove. Bernier is a good story, but he's the very definition of AAAA.
  3. cmathewson
    Sure, Bartlett needs to prove it. But there's no way either Bernier or Beresford can hit anywhere close to Bartlett. I'd like to see Beresford get a chance at some point. But I'm much more optimistic about Bartlett than you. You can't teach his contact skills. Neither Bernier nor Beresford have it.
  4. cmathewson
    I haven't seen him, but I've read that his range is "amazing," something like Guzmann's when he first came up. Think Florimon reactions with young Guzmann's speed.
  5. cmathewson
    This. If he had been a pitcher, the recommendation might have been different. But even Dr. James Andrews recommends trying rest and rehab first for a lot of pitchers. And he makes his living on surgery. I understand the frustration, and I have expressed it in cases like Liriano, Neshek, Gibson and Wimmers. But I can't argue with this one.
  6. cmathewson
    I think shoulder surgery has advanced as fast as TJ, just less openly. I think of two recent cases: Jesse Crain and Sam Deduno, who both had rotator cuff and labrum surgery in September and were back pitching at full speed the following spring.
  7. cmathewson
    I don't believe he was going to spend much time at New Britain this year, if any. This helps a couple of guys who are in make-or-break years: Plouffe and Romero. The main downside for the Twins is in 2015. The timetable was for him to be the starer on opening day 2015. This makes that unlikely.
  8. cmathewson
    The F/O has praised his range while talking up what he has to work on. They don't like praising their own prospects, preferring to talk about stuff they have to work on. But I have read a lot of praise. As recently as Twins Fest, Ryan called him a "dark horse" candidate to start with the big club sometime this year. When he is ready, he is a big upgrade on range, according to the scouting reports I've read. And he's an upgrade with the bat, not huge, but something. On another thread, they talk about trading for Gregorius. I think Santana is a good comp for him with the bat, with more speed and range.
  9. cmathewson
    He's never had an OPS above .800. To me, that doesn't scream "good hitting shortstop." Adequate, at best. He has a career OPS of .705 (minors and majors). By contrast, Florimon has a career OPS of .675 (minors) and .600 (majors). I know nothing about Gregorius' defense, but it is hard for me to believe that it's better than Florimon's. This is not enough of an upgrade to even consider a trade, let alone giving up the immediate future behind the plate and leaving us watching Suzuki and Fryer for the near term.
  10. cmathewson
    Bingo. Looking at his FanGraphs defense page, he actually had a good year last year with a 5.8 UZR and a 6.7 UZR/150. But his career numbers are kind of ugly. His net career UZR is -18.8. As recently as 2012, he had a UZR of -7. When I speak of regression, I factor in defense, of course, and I think his defense is more prone to regression than his offense, considering career numbers plus old legs. I don't think his overall WAR will be close to Florimon, but his dWAR will be much worse over the next couple of years. I also think you gloss over variability in his baseline, assuming 2013 is his baseline. I think it's closer to a career year. In six of his eight years, his WAR has been at 2 or below, twice below 0. He's had two career years (2010 and 2013). He's prime for regression from those, not even factoring in age. In three of the last five years, Hughes has had WAR in the 2.5 range. He's much more consistent. Unlike Drew, he's never had a negative WAR. And, also unlike Drew, he is three years younger, just entering his prime this year. Finally, I don't think you can over asses park effects. Something like 12 homers Hughes gave up last year are routine fly balls in Target Field. Something like 12 doubles off Drew's bat in Fenway last year are routine fly balls in Target Field.
  11. cmathewson
    The first option, which is why I say Hughes has upside while Drew does not. Also, Hughes has park adjusted upside while Drew does not. Put them together and I would put money on Hughes producing more WAR over the next two years than Drew. Factor in the draft pick, and the case gets better for Hughes.
  12. cmathewson
    I don't agree with the last statement. I think they will split games about evenly, and Pinto will be developed as the starting catcher as the year rolls along. he will be your opening dat catcher in 2015, barring injury. The others you mentioned might be good candidates down the road, but that is at least two years away. If they had signed Salty, then maybe. Not signing Salty means they are counting on Pinto for the forseeable future.
  13. cmathewson
    Thank you Dan Barreiro.
  14. cmathewson
    I don't get this. You don't create one hole to fill another. Pinto is the future. There's no one else in the pipeline.
  15. cmathewson
    I think Pinto earned his spot in September. Given the offensive issues with Suzuki, I would be shocked if he doesn't make the team. Fryer and Hermann are pure back-ups. Pinto is the future, and Suzuki is here because he's the perfect complement to Pinto.
  16. cmathewson
    When Smith was GM, Ryan was a special advisor to the GM. He basically became a scouting consultant with little or no input into transactions (other than scouting).
  17. cmathewson
    I don't get the Hermann love. By the numbers, Fryer is the better hitter and has the much better glove. Yeah Hermann has some versatility, but why would Gardy want to put a guy who hits like Butera in the outfield?
  18. cmathewson
    So you don't buy the claim that Mauer will stay healthier and stronger by moving to first base? That's what I was saying. And I fail to see how comparing his lack of health at catcher last has any bearing to this year.
  19. cmathewson
    Now, that is some whacky logic. I still think the Drew signing and the Hughes signing are so different, you can't really compare them. In addition to the draft pick, Hughes has upside. Drew does not. He is likely to regress, fairly rapidly in the next two years. That is why no one has signed him.
  20. cmathewson
    Suzuki is not replacing Mauer at the plate, he's replacing Morneau. Morneau's OPS+ the last three years: 70, 112, 103 Suzuki's OPS+ the lst three years: 89, 67, 73 Still a big downgrade. The hope is it can be made up with the combination of Pinto and a stronger and healthier Mauer.
  21. cmathewson
    That's essentially the grounds for my comments. If you look at what Smith did, he routinely traded prospects for aging and expensive players, something Ryan only did once in his career. Also, Smith showed very little understanding of positional value, twice trading ace pitchers, twice trading shortstops and once trading a catcher for pieces one can easily sign through free agency. He did also spend more money than Ryan by about 15%. But I don't think spending was the primary "philosophical" difference between Smith and Ryan. That's just s symptom of a more expedient approach. When they interviewed Ryan after he came back, he said, "I will be more patient than Bill," meaning, I suppose, that he will tend to take the longer view rather than the expedient view Smith took. In GM land, you exercise patience by focusing on the farm system and not trading prospects for aging and expensive players at positions of relative surplus.
  22. cmathewson
    Payroll in 2011 was $115 M. The team lost 99 games. To fix that team to beat the tigers would have cost 40 million more, at leat. And that assumes the talent that fit the roster was even available, which is doubtful.
  23. cmathewson
    Wow. That is some high-grade BS. The money that Bill spends on movies is his own, what he received as part of his inheritance. It's completely separate. Jim is an investor. But, again, that is from his personal fortune, not from the Twins corporation. I do agree that Smith wanted to spend his way out of the mess he created. But that wasn't all he wanted to do. He wanted to trade signature prospects for more expensive veteran help. The Ramos trade was his model for how he wanted to rebuild the roster. He thought that was a great move. He probably still does. They nixed it because it was expedient, not because it was expensive. They asked Ryan about his plan and you can guess what his answer was. So they canned the plan and they canned Smith. It just wasn't a sustainable model that would support winning. And the early returns from 2011 were visible proof of that. In the long term, the Ryan plan will actually be more expensive than the Smith plan. There is a thread on this site about how to extend Buxton to make his payroll hit won't bankrupt the franchise. Winning the right way is expensive. It might be cheap now. But in three years, the team will be looking at ways to make budget. In five years, it will need to start trading the next Denard Span (Aaron Hicks) to make room for having Meyer, Sano and Buxton on the same team.
  24. cmathewson
    My list of the five worst trades the Twins have ever made: 1. Two cornerstone roster pieces for Delmon Young. Net WAR - infinity. 2. Kaat to the White Sox for $500 cash. (He proceeded to win 20 games two consecutive years). 3. Ramos for Capps (you make the case well) 4. Hardy for crap 5. Rod Carew for Ken Landreaux and very little else
  25. cmathewson
    He hit .704 last year in AAA. Not terrible for a catcher.
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