cmathewson
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Everything posted by cmathewson
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I disagree. A lot of times, you have to just release them. Even after Correia had a career year, the Twins couldn't find any takers, according to Ryan. I don't know if he was willing to eat salary. But it is not always easy. You have to find a team that needs the player enough to make the trade.
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Alex Presley claimed off waivers by Astros
cmathewson replied to sandbun's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'm surprised by this move. They don't have a lot of center field depth. -
We'll have to agree to disagree. You can't always trade people. And, as we have discussed in numerous threads, managers tend to favor veterans. I could cite a half dozen cases in which the better player was blocked by the veteran. The two most egregious are Castro/Bartlett and Bautista/Cuddyer. But there were many others. It leads to worse teams, not better. I don't care about dollars. I want that "clear path to the majors" (to use Antony's phrase) for the best players. Maybe it's bad GMing. But it has ever been that way for the Twins.
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If I had to (wildly) project right now: 2014: 78-84 2015: 81-81 2016: 92-70 2017: 95-67
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Dollars and years. Those are the most important things. Most players are willing to sacrifice dollars for security. Some aren't. The Twins didn't want Garza for more than three years, in part because they have guys like Berrios and they had already signed Nolasco. Rumor has it, they offered much the same deal to both, and Nolasco took it. They kept after Garza, but at more dollars per year and fewer years. He took more years from Milwaukee. I don't believe my statement is a blanket. It is just a set of criteria that make it unlikely that they will sign guys. The fact is they did sign Nolasco and Hughes to long-term deals because they were thin in the upper minors in pitching and it takes a couple of years for most pitchers to be successful at the majors. So they needed those guys. They didn't sign Drew, in part, because he was only going to provide short-term help at a position that should have better options next year. Either Santana takes a step forward, or they can get someone from outside who is better than Drew. It was kind of a push and I'm on the fence about it myself. For what it's worth, I think they should go out and get Morales today, and damn the draft pick. Given what I am hearing from the FO, they just might do it.
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I'm more concerned about third than center. If Hicks bombs again (which I think is unlikely), they have Presley and Mastro, two replacement-level players. If Plouffe bombs (something that is more likely, considering he's 20 months from success), you have Romero, who is below replacement level.
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No, but the Twins do. All things considered, they do not like to hire people for long-term deals when they have as good or better options a year or two down the road. And short-term options might give you a year or two above replcement level. But rarely do they make enough of a difference to be worth it.
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Free agency is not like going to the grocery store. It is more like an auction system in which you're recruiting players to play for you. Players don't just look at dollars when you do this. They look at the scale of the opportunity, competitive issues, location, etc. By scale, I mean, how likely is it that the player will be a fixture with the team to justify a long-term contract. In the case of the Twins, there is only one position where a guy can see long-term scale, and that is shortstop. Every other position looks to be occupied by a top prospect or star player by 2016. There weren't any good shortstops this year. I know some people thought Drew was a good one, but he's a short-term stop gap at best. As was the case with pitching last year, the Twins decided to pass and perhaps try again next year. I can't really fault them for that. So we are where we are. Let's see how they play. It does no good to mope about what might happen.
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I think some of those things can be predicted. It is just more difficult. To put it another way, it is as unlikely that everyone will get worse or hurt as it is that everyone will get better and stay healthy. Figuring out which ones are most likely to improve and stay healthy and which ones are not takes work and scouting.
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Regression happens to every player. In some cases, that means improvement. I am concerned about some of the depth, especially at third base. But it is highly unlikely all the injuries you speculate about will happen at the same time. That's my point. When you make projections, you do a statistical analysis of the probability of regression for each player given their career averages and age/performance considerations and you come out with the most likely scenario. You don't speculate on what will happen if every player got worse or hurt.
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You gotta spend money to make money. Even the old man got that, eventually. They committed 80 mil to the team this year to make it respectable. Everyone knows it would take another 87 to contend, and they don't have the horses. The horses will have to wait until 2016, when both Sano and Buxton should be ready. I'll settle for respectable until then.
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Yes. No one wants to admit it, because it's not in anyone's best interest, least of all Worley.
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Just base my opinion on watching them pitch. I don't think you can pitch worse than Worley. Batting practice was quieter. Gilmartin has better stuff and command. Johnson relived Diamond against the Mets ( with a couple of guys in between). The contrast could not have been greater. Diamond threw all his fastballs high and at 90. All his curves were in the dirt. Most of the outs he got were on over-anxious B-squad players swinging at bad pitches. A lot of long innings and wild pitches. Johnson threw a lot of strikes with his 93-mph fastball. Got outs with a sharp curve. His innings were crisp and short.
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I was at the game last Tuesday. Worley hit 91 a couple of times and mostly sat at 88. He did not get one swinging strike in two plus innings of pitching. 11 hits, 7 outs. Even the outs were loud. Guerra came in and sat at 93. Struck out two swinging in one inning of pitching. I counted eight swinging strikes for five hitters.
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So they got better guys. Johnson is better than Diamond and Gilmartin is better than Worley. I refuse to see this as anything but positive.
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It just seemed like he was speculating about what would happen if everything went wrong. That's not only unrealistic, it's not even very interesting.
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I'm glad you own all those predictions of doom that the Twins would not choose Gibson over Diamond or Worley. BTW, Meyer is next in line.
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Guerra is younger, throws harder, and, unlike Worley, has an out pitch. Worley does not have on plus pitch. He's done.
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Duensing's a sunk cost. Diamond's salary is only guaranteed if he makes the team. Duensing has pitched in relief for several years. Diamond, not so much. Duensing is tough on lefties, again, Diamond, not so much.
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After he cleared waivers, they said Worley would go to Rochester to pitch in the bullpen. Then they signed Guerrier back. Then they sold Worley to the Pirates. I don't think that chain of events is an accident. They have no room for him in the Rochester bullpen. That's how little they think of him. If you can name one pitcher slated for that bullpen who has less upside than Vance Worley, you might have a point. I cannot. These are the six relievers they have (assuming no promotions from AA): Tonkin Ibarra Pressly Raley Guerra Guerrier
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Yep. It's Mike Restovich all over again. Very few of those guys become stars. it happens once in a while. But it is really rare.
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Tom Kelly used to say, "you need 1000 at bats at the big leagues to find out what you have." He didn't mean, "You have to give guys 1000 at bats." More like, "If a guy is really good for 500 at bats, let's see another 500 before we say he's going to be around for the long haul." I think Chad Allen was the poster child for that statement. If a guy sucks, you pretty much know it in a couple of seasons. If a guy is good, it might take three seasons to learn his limitations, as the league figures him out.
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A real chance is two-to-three months of starting every day. By my reckoning, he had that.
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We saw this with Blackburn. He had the feel of the sinker and was decent for a couple of years, on par with Worley's Philly time when you factor in league differences. As is common with guys who throw a lot of sinkers, he developed bone chips. The clean out didn't find anything else (at least anything they made known to the public), but he was a different pitcher after the clean out than before. I suspect it's three things: 1. He never regained the forearm strength you need to throw his signature pitch. I.e. he was damaged goods. Perhaps there was some UCL fraying caused by the chips that went unreported and affected his ability to get on top of the ball and pitch "out front" to use Bert's terminology. 2. He never was as good as his numbers suggested. Maybe the red flag was all those called third strikes. The way he threw the sinker, it was basically a trick pitch. Once people figured it out, they at least fouled it off. 3. His long layoff led to losing the feel for his trick pitch. I suspect it was a combination, but his comments suggest it was mostly 1. He said "I couldn't get the ball down to save my life last year." That suggests it was more physical than mental. The fact that it is 18 months since the surgery and he still can't get the ball down means he might be done, at least until he has TJ surgery.
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The possibility of sending Arcia to Rochester just so you can hang onto a AAAA player makes me physically ill. Parm's best hope is with an other organization. We gave him two good chances. He failed both times. It's Arcia's turn.
