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  1. LA Vikes Fan

    Lewis Up to Replace Luplow (or Gallo)? Makes Sense for 2023 and Really Makes Sense For 2024

    By LA Vikes Fan,


    Lewis Up to Replace Luplow (or Gallo)? Makes Sense for 2023 and Really Makes Sense For 2024
    We need a CF for 2024 and a better RH hitting OF for 2023. I think our highest and best hope in 2024 should be that Buxton plays 80ish games in the OF next year and another 50 at DH. That means we will need another player to be a half to 2/3 time starting CF. I frankly think we have that guy in Max Kepler which would really open things up for OFs because it's easier to find corner OFs that a decent CF. Unfortunately, Kepler apparently doesn't want to play CF on any sort of regular basis. Maybe we can find  way to tie playing CF to exercising his option and that can be the short term solution. 
    Assuming Max isn't the answer, and frankly thinking more long term, we will need a CF in 2024. We also need to replace Luplow as the RH hitting OF in 2023 as it is becoming more clear why the Blue Jays cut him, and why TB, Cle, and AZ cut him before that - he can't hit. For 2024,  Taylor has actually been a decent short term guy but he's 32 and really is a 4th or 5th OF on a good team. I don't see Lewis going back out there after getting hurt last year. We can rail about that all we want but it ain't happening so let's looks at something closer to a possible reality. There's really 3 choices for 2024 other than a free agent, Taylor again, Castro or Gordon as a full/part time CF, or go to Martin or Keirsey now at AAA.
    The last prospect excites me IF we could get Martin or Keirsey some ABs this year to see where they're at versus MLB pitching.  The problem is that we can't unless w make a roster change. We can only add 2 guys on 9/1 and we need space for at least 3 guys coming back from injury - Castro, Buxton, and Kirilloff. It will take dropping a current MLB player to get them on the roster (Gallo? Luplow?) and that's without adding a pitcher.   There just isn't any easy way to add another AAA player unless there's an injury or we are willing to drop two of Gallo, Luplow, Farmer, or Solano.
    My solution? Bring up Martin before 9/1 to replace Gallo or Luplow. I really don't care which although I don't see the Twins dropping Gallo until they absolutely have to. I would see if Luplow is willing to stay with the team if/when he clears waivers. If he is, he's the one. If he's not, well, he's still the one. Luplow is falling off the table at the plate and looking a whole lot more like even less than his career .214/.315/.429 (.744) career slash line. In his last 7 games he's got 18 ABs and is hitting .111/.200/.333. All of this when he almost exclusively plays against LH pitching. He's 30 on 9/26. He's not on next year's team and not a future player on any sort of contending team.
    I would bring up Martin now. Play Martin now in CF against LH pitching and, if we can play the back half of September without pressure, he's plays every day to rest guys. Sets us up for 2024 and beyond without hurting us much now.  I have to think Martin can hit some, I know he can run some, and I'd wager that he can at least come close to meeting or exceeding the Luplow threshold. We have a unique opportunity now to test/expose/develop young talent at the MLB level while still winning the division. Let's take that opportunity now. By the way,. all of this also applies to putting Varland and Funderburk in the bullpen TODAY but that's a topic for another thread. . . 
  2. LA Vikes Fan

    Lewis Back Up to Replace Solano? Polanco to 1B?

    By LA Vikes Fan,


    What To Do With Solano Now Out
    Well, now what do we do with Solano spraining his knee? Hard to believe that's a day to day thing. By the way, "sprained knee" is often the diagnosis until the MRI shows a torn meniscus or ligament damage.  So what do we do? God help us if the answer is play Joey Gallo every day. 
    I say we we cut Lewis' rehab stint in AAA short and get him back up. Lewis plays 3d, Polanco goes to 1B most days, with Gallo there only occasionally. I can already hear the chorus of "move Julien to 1B, he stinks at 2B". I hear that, but moving a guy who's never played 1B over there when he just got to the MLB level is playing with fire. Polanco is a veteran, he's played all over the IF, and he's  seasoned enough to not let the transition effect his hitting. He's been around and a good bet to pick up the basics at 1B pretty quickly, He'll make mistakes but he'll make the routine plays most of the time and be in the right position most of the time. It's also a good audition for next year when his highest and best use may be as the super UTL guy who plays 5 days a week at a combination of 2-3 days at 2B and 1B against LH starting pitching while Julien DHs or he or Kirilloff sit, a day or two as the DH, and a day at 3B to spell Lewis. Hey, I think an IF of Correa, Lewis, Julien. Kirilloff, Polanco, and one of Castro, Famer, or Gordon, is exactly where we need to be at the beginning of the 2024 season. There aren't any IFs breaking down the door at AAA (Lee may get there in 2024, but so far in AAA he's 2-18), I say let's get there now.    
  3. LA Vikes Fan

    Time To Shake Up that Underperforming Lineup?

    By LA Vikes Fan,


    Time To Shake Up That Lineup?!
    The current lineup isn't working and hasn't worked for awhile. It's great that Farmer is back but Farmer isn't likely to provide the lineup spark we need. He was 0 for his last 11 with 8 strikeouts before he got hurt. If you look at the lineup/26 man roster realistically, who can be that spark? The only possible answer I see is Gordon - 6 for his last 20 with 2 HRs. Solano can't play defense anywhere on the field so he doesn't have much value if Buxton is the DH. I guess we now know why Solano was available. I would actually consider DFAing him for Julien or Hellman. 
    We need to shake up the lineup - Correa can't hit #2 and we need a better leadoff hitter. Kepler has actually performed . . . well, like Kepler usually performs  - a streaky .213/.308.427 (.735). We can argue if he should play regularly, but it's hard to argue he should lead off.  How about this for a lineup shakeup?
    Gordon LF
    Buxton DH
    Kirilloff 1B
    Polanco 2B
    Correa SS
    Kepler/Gallo  RF
    Jeffers/Vasquez  C
    Gallo/Farmer  3B
    Taylor CF
    The other thought I have is to DFA Solano or demote Castro and force feed Julien or Hellman up here. If it's Julien, lead him off at 3B, move Gordon to the 6 hole, bench Gallo and move Kepler to #8. I don't like that as much as I like the lineup above. To be honest, I don't really like either but I think they are the best we can do and I think both lineups are better than what we are trotting out every day.  A shakeup also tells guys like Correa and Gallo that they have to earn their lineup spots; nothing is just handed to you. 
    Thoughts? I can't come up with anything better. . .
  4. LA Vikes Fan

    Trade Kyle Farmer To The Dodgers? Maybe With Kepler?

    By LA Vikes Fan,


    Trade Kyle Farmer To The Dodgers? Maybe With Kepler?
    Kyle Farmer is a starting quality MLB SS will fill a bench role for the Twins this year. While he is valuable in that role, his biggest value might have just come in - as a trade chip to the Dodgers to replace Gavin Lux at SS after Lux tore his ACL yesterday.  The Dodgers other option is 34-year-old Miguel Rojas who they acquired from the Marlins before spring training. You have to think the Dodgers are looking for a starting caliber SS that's locked into a reserve role on another team, particularly one who can be a 1 or 2 year option while Lux recovers or they get a free agent next winter. Voilà! 32-year-old longtime starting SS Kyle Farmer seems to meet all of those criteria.
    Interestingly enough, the Dodgers could also use a proven outfielder. They do have Mookie Betts in right, but are looking at an aging Chris Taylor and an unproven  Trayce Thompson to play center with a very unproven James Outman in left. It seems like a respected veteran like Max Kepler might be a good fit.

    I think there's a real possibility that Kyle Farmer becomes a trade talking point between the Twins and the Dodgers. It would not surprise me if Kepler is also in the discussion. The Dodgers have a deep farm system particularly in pitching and catching. I do think there's a match. May be a Caleb Ferguson or Andre Jackson might be a good piece for Farmer. Add Kepler and maybe you can get Outman, Landon Knack, or Nick Mastrini or 1 of them plus someone a little farther down the list? Who knows, maybe there's a way to pry Ryan Pepiot away if you offer, Farmer, Kepler and maybe a solid AA guy.
    I think there's a real opportunity here for the Twins to trade what are now somewhat redundant pieces - a 32-year-old starting caliber Shortstop who will be relegated to a reserve role for the one year he is with the team and a 30-year-old good fielding, roughly average hitting outfielder for whom there seemed to be adequate replacements. The Dodgers are a win now team that needs both those kinds of players. What you guys think?
  5. LA Vikes Fan

    Angels Sign Matt Moore

    By LA Vikes Fan,


    Matt Moore
    The Angels signed Matt Moore to a 1 year, 7.55m deal for 2023. No options in the deal. Would you pay him that? I would not given our other options.   
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/angels-nearing-deal-with-matt-moore.html
  6. LA Vikes Fan

    Finish the Roster - Trade for Reynolds and Sign Chafin or Fulmer

    By LA Vikes Fan,


    Finishing The Twins 2023 Roster
    We're close to a contender. We still need a middle of the order bat and another quality reliever. How do we do this? Here's a radical plan. Four simple steps:
    1. Trade Larnach, Ober, and either Salas or Emmanuel Rodriquez to the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds. Add in Martin or Reyes if you have to but then Pittsburg throws in a real A or A+ ball pitching or catching prospect, not filler, especially if you add in Reyes. Reynolds goes to LF every day, hits 3 in the order. The trade for Lopez and the emergence of SWR and Varland allows you to do this. 
    2. Sign Chafin if you can. If not, sign Fulmer. Bullpen done. 
    3. Trade Kepler for prospects, AA or lower and prioritize pitching or catching. Target the Yankees, Dodgers, or Cardinals as partners. They all need OFs now to better contend and have realistic hopes to contend. All 3 have decent or better systems.   
    4. Extend two of Mahle, Lopez, Maeda and Gray to ensure rotation stability. I vote for Lopez and Mahle if they are healthy. Also ok with Gray. 
    Roster is now complete. The OF is Buxton, Gallo, and Reynolds, backed up by Taylor and Gordon.  Starting IF is Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, and Miranda, backed up by Farmer and Gordon. Catchers are Vasquez and Jeffers, Find another UTL for the last spot, maybe Willi Castro to start off with, or a 3rd Catcher. Don't sign a RH 1B/DH only type; get someone versatile. This is a placeholder for Lewis or Lee. Rotation is P Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle and Maeda, with Varland, SWR, Balazovic, and Dobnak in the Saints rotation. BP is Duran, J Lopez, Jax, Chafin/Fulmer, Theilbar, Pagan, Moran, and Alcala, with Coloumbe, Stashak, Sands, and Megill at AAA for fill in duty or as a replacement if someone struggles. Batting order is Polanco, Correa, Reynolds, Buxton, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gallo, Vasquez/Jeffers, Gordon (as DH). 
    This adds a bat for the middle of the order (albeit at a high cost), strengthens the bullpen, and still leaves us with a solid rotation with some depth. Big bet on Kirilloff but 1B could be Miranda with Farmer/Gordon/Lewis/Lee at 3B if Kirilloff doesn't hit or can't stay healthy.  What do you guys think? 
  7. LA Vikes Fan

    Enlow Stays IWth Twins

    By LA Vikes Fan,


    Blayne Enlow Passes Through Waivers, Is Outrighted to AA
    MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Blayne Enlow passed through waivers and has been outrighted to AA. I thought he might be part of a trade package or get picked up by a lesser team. Guess the FO knew better than I or many of us here did. I don't like everything they do but you have to give them props when they take a calculated risk and it works out. 
  8. LA Vikes Fan

    Could Marlins Signing Cueto Mean Trade With Twins Coming?

    By LA Vikes Fan,


    Cueto Signing Mean Marlins/Twins trade in the works?
    It was reported this morning that the Marlins signed Johnny Cueto to a one year deal with a club option that guarantees him $8.5 million. Why do the Marlins need starting pitching? They need bats. Add in Enlow's DFA, which doesn't make a lot of sense unless he's going to be traded, and a thought emerges - are the Twins and Marlins about ready to do a deal with hitting going from the Twins for pitching from the Marlins? Maybe Kepler, Larnach, and Enlow for Lopez, Luzardo, or Rogers?  Anyone hearing or reading anything?
  9. LA Vikes Fan

    Recommended Coming Changes in Rotation and Bullpen Pre 9/1

    By LA Vikes Fan,


    The September Pitching Staff - Who Should It Be?
    The time to make changes in the starting rotation is coming with Mahle due off the IL in about a week. Mahle, Gray and Ryan are easy picks, everyone else is in play - pick two of Bundy, Archer, Aaron Sanchez, Smeltzer, Louie Varland, SWR for 5, or should we go to a 6 man rotation and pick 3? Who goes into the bullpen?
    To me, first choice is obvious - Dylan Bundy,  The man has a 2.33 ERA in August and has kept the Twins in every game he's started this month. Rocco needs to try giving him a shot at going  more than 5 innings but he has been an above average 4/5 rotation guy for the last month. The second choice is less obvious but the guy it shouldn't be is pretty clear - Chris Archer. He had a 11.74 ERA in July and has a 5.24 ERA in August. While he was better earlier, he only pitched 19 innings last year and is coming off a potentially career ending injury. He is running out of gas. Either put him in the bullpen or shut him down. 
    That leaves Smeltzer and Sanchez on the roster, and Louie Varland and SWR down in AAA. Smeltzer was exposed while in the rotation before - 1.50 ERA in May, 4.10 in June, 8.76 in July - and actually looks the part of a long reliever with a 1.80 ERA since coming back up. Varland is tempting but he just got to AAA. SWR still has control issues and also just got there, and there isn't anyone else on the Saints roster who looks like anything close to a MLB starter. Those two could come up on 9/1 and still be under the 45 days so retain their rookie status for 2023. Very tempting to try to catch lightning in a bottle but I just don't think either one is ready.  Here's your winner - Aaron Sanchez. Yes, he was bad with the Nats, but his 2 starts with the Twins so far have been a total of 9 innings, 4 runs. He would have gone longer against Houston if Rocco hadn't messed up. His pitches have life and I could see him being very good against weaker teams and holding his own against better ones. If he pitches well Sunday against the Giants I think he's the man for the #5 spot in the rotation. 
    For the bullpen, two changes jump out at me. First, Brad Peacock or Jharel Cotton should come up and replace Megill. Megill has good stuff, but he's been figured out - 1.86 ERA in July, 6.55 in August. Peacock is experienced and can better give us back of the bullpen work. Cotton had a 2.83 ERA when sent down, albeit with a FIP over 5. He's risky, but we could use another multi inning/long man with the shorter starts and he can fill that role. Archer stays and hits the BP or goes on IL. I would also be ok with Moran coming up if Archer goes on the IL. Remember, we get 2 more spots on 9/1 and one of them can be a pitcher so we can add one for a 9 man bullpen.  I say add Peacock and Cotton, move Archer to the bullpen, option Megill and option/DFA Pagan. Moran can come up if there's an injury but remember, once he comes up he's hit his limit for the year and can't be sent back down without exposing him to waivers. 
    That would give us a starting rotation as of 9/1 of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Sanchez. The Bullpen is Duran and Lopez as the late inning guys, Jax, Theilbar, Fullmer, Archer (or Moran) and Peacock for innings 6-8, and Smeltzer and Cotton as the multi inning/long men. Smeltzer and Archer are the emergency starters. That's our best pitching staff for September in my view.
    What say ye?
     
  10. LA Vikes Fan

    NIck Gordon Sent to AAA - Is He a Long Term Player?

    By LA Vikes Fan,


    Is NIck Gordon Long For the Twins?
    I see Nick Gordon has been sent down and Refsnyder brought up. I understand the logic; Gordon has been hitting around .200 with no walks or power for the last month and Refsnyder was hot earlier before he got hurt. We're evaluating both for 2022. 
    My question is what does everyone see for Gordon going forward? Given his play this year, do you think the Twins need to keep him on the 40 man roster or could He survive the Rule 5 draft? Do you see a long term future for him with the Twins? We could use the 40 man spot but I am concerned about losing him in the draft since he would be easy for a losing team to stash for a season. 
  11. LA Vikes Fan

    Let's Realign the Divisions to Create Regional Rivalries

    By LA Vikes Fan,


    Let's Realign The Divisions to Create Regional Rivalries
    I really like the realignment idea assuming we're going to a universal DH. I made this a comment elsewhere but I also thought I'd also post this as a separate blog. Here's my proposal for realignment. I know it's fantasy but hey, it's the dog days of summer so why not? 
    5 divisions, not 6. 12 teams in the playoffs, The top 2 in each division plus two remaining teams teams with best records make the playoffs so there is a reward for being a little better than average. Four best records get byes while the other 8 play 3 games series down to 4. Lots of playoff games; TV loves it. The remaining 8 teams (4 with byes plus 4 first round winners) re-seed by record, not location.  During the regular season you play all of the teams in three of the other four divisions 6 times each, 3 at home, 3 away.  That's 108 games (6 times 18 - 6 teams in each division). You play the remaining games in your division. You play 11 games each year against your 5 division opponents, except one only 10 times, for 54 games, total 162. Alternatively, add a game and rotate the unbalanced 81 home/82 away schedules in each division. You could rotate through the division the one team that you "only" play 10 times and you'll have to rotate each year which team gets the extra home game, 2 you get the extra, 2 your opponent, to balance the schedule.
    Division are by location to create/enhance rivalries:
    West Coast Division - San Diego, LA Angels, LA Dodgers, San Francisco, Oakland/Vegas, Seattle
    Southwest/Rocky Mountain Division - Houston, Texas (Dallas), Arizona, Kansas City, St. Louis, Colorado (Denver)
    Midwest Division -  Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Detroit, Pittsburg or Toronto (bummer that Twins are in a different time zone, but couldn't figure out a way to fix that)
    Southeast Division -  Miami, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Washington, Cincinnati, Cleveland or Baltimore (depends on whether you want the Ohio or Beltway rivalry)
    Northeast Division - Boston, NY Yankees, NY Mets, Philadelphia, Pittsburg or Toronto, Cleveland or Baltimore     
    You rotate through the other divisions in the regular season. One year, the Twins play the Northeast, Southeast and Southwest, next year the Southeast, Southwest, West Coast, next year the Southwest, West Coast, Northeast, etc. That away the existing rivalries that are being broken up still play 6 games against each other 3 out of every 4 years like the Cubs and Cardinals. Those will fade over time; the Cubs new hated rival will be the White Sox, the Cards, the Royals.  
    What do you guys think?
  12. LA Vikes Fan

    Average OPS By Position vs. Twins Starters

    By LA Vikes Fan,


    Twins Starters by OPS Compared to MLB Average by Position
    We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players,  etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. 
    Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86)     Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026)     Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070)     Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060)     Larnach .676 Minus .143     Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137     Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others.
    I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop.
    I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots.
    We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.
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