Parker Hageman

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2551[/ATTACH]The worst kept secret in baseball is that teams need an abundance of starting pitching. Like crack, you can never have enough. Also, pitching, like crack, can be an expensive endeavor – particularly when you need a lot of it. And this is exactly the position the Twins are in so said the team’s general manager, Terry Ryan, during his offseason apology tour. In a recent interview with Twins Daily’s John Bonnes, Ryan admitted that his financial resources may keep the team from chasing the Zack Greinke’s of the world (shocker), but the team will be scouring the market for top of the rotation help. (The interview’s entirety can be found the Offseason Handbook in which Ryan expands on this topic and many more.) If the team is looking to maximize the return on a smaller investment, one such arm Ryan should be zeroing in on in the free agent market is the 30-year-old Shawn Marcum. If you were looking just at the radar gun, you would likely be nonplussed at Marcum’s fastball. Indeed, his 87.2-mph fastball over his career would incite plenty to label him yet another soft-tossing pitcher. After all, he shares the same career fastball velocity as one flame-thrower Bruce Chen. Recognizing his weakness Marcum uses his fastball extremely sparingly. Dating back to 2007, outside of the knuckleballers, only Roy Halladay (33.8%) has used his fastball less frequently than Marcum (38.2%). Once he gets ahead in the count – which we has more often than not – hitters have a better odds of seeing Halley’s Comet than his fastball. And it is his plethora of off-speed and breaking pitches that makes him so impossible to make contact against. Again, since 2007, Marcum has registered the sixth-highest swinging strike rate in baseball behind such luminaries as Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Dempster and Max Scherzer. That’s right: He missed more bats than Justin Verlander. Now, this has not translated into a ton of strikeouts but it shows that he is consistently confounding opponents. What makes Marcum so effective in spite of the town ball-level velocity is his ability to keep the fastball away off the plate while mixing in a variety of pitches and speeds that make hitters’ heads’ spin. Take a look at this year’s heat map of his pitch location: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2550[/ATTACH] To both sides, he served every down and away. The reason this is noteworthy is because this area is perhaps the most difficult for a hitter to square up and certainly one of the hardest areas to pull consistently. Furthermore, Marcum’s ability to change speeds to the mid-70s to 80 back to the upper 80s on almost any pitch keeps opponents from cheating on the outer-half. As we have seen at Target Field, it can reward hitters who can yank pitches into the right and left field stands thus having someone who keeps the ball away from those looking to do heavy damage is in the Twins’ best interest. In short, his ability to miss bats and keep hitters from pulling the ball with lethal intent would play very favorably as a potentially number two starter in Minnesota. So, what are the odds the Twins could end up with him? The Royals, Cubs and Blue Jays all may be landing places for Marcum. In fact, in an interview with a Toronto radio station, Marcum expressed interest in returning to the Blue Jays where he had been a member of the organization from when he was drafted in 2003 until being traded to the Brewers after the 2010 season. Marcum said that he would welcome a homecoming to his original team in part because of the coaching and training staff which he had a strong relationship. Presumably, Marcum’s past injury history (Tommy John in 2008) and recent flare up in Milwaukee this year (right elbow tenderness with required a trip to the 60-day DL) will likely drop his stock among all suitors. Even the Brewers, who have seen him up close and are just a year removed from a 200-inning season, have maintained radio silence with him and his agent. This probably does not bode well for his immediate financial future. As a result, his price range is likely going to fall towards more of a one-year plus incentives in order to rebuild his value while still in his early 30s (he’ll be 31 in December), at which point he can explore a longer, more lucrative deal on the market. The Twins have plenty of holes to fill and, sad to admit, a finite budget, therefore a one-year deal for a pitcher of Shawn Marcum’s caliber would be in Terry Ryan’s best interest.

As Seth Stohs mentioned yesterday, while the rest of us at Twins Daily were all stark raving mad about Kyle Gibson’s performance in the Arizona Fall League, another Twins prospect was making noise even further south. Outfielder Aaron Hicks, who is playing winthttp://apps.startribune.com/blogs/fckeditor/editor/images/spacer.gifer ball in Venezuela, is off to a fast start this offseason, matching the expectation he set from his in-season performance at New Britain. Of course, not long ago, Hicks was in danger of falling off the “top prospect” radar although. Heading into the 2011 season, Baseball America dropped him from 19TH to 45TH despite a terrific first full season at the low-A level in Beloit. Then, as if Baseball America’s rankings had influence, Hicks lost some power and over 30 points in the batting average at Ft Myers the following year. The criticism on Hicks’s approach is that he could be too passive at times. Hicks boasts a high strikeout rate and a significant portion of those (39%) in 2011 were of the caught-looking variety, an indication that he was not aggressive enough with two strikes on him. Of course, the other side of the coin is that it has led to a 14% career minor league walk rate – a solid pillar supporting his .379 on-base percentage. While walks are en vogue with OBP-ers, there are those in the system who would like to see him use his six-foot-two athletic frame to transfer some power into the ball. His 2010 season at Beloit had him smacking eight home runs but that total dwindled down to five after his foray with the Miracle in Fort Myers. Part of the reason for the drop off simply had to do with the offensive difficulty of the Florida State League. As the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller explained this year, hitting is dern tough way down south: When he transitioned from high-A ball in the Florida State League to an even more polished level of competition of the double-A Eastern League, rather than being buried by the tougher pitching Hicks elevated his game. His matriculation to double-A ball could have also been a hindrance - given the significant leap in talent - but Hicks did not allow it. He hit a healthy .286/.384/.460 with 13 home runs. Where did this production come from? Was it simply a course correction after leaving the Florida State League or did Hicks make adjustments elsewhere? Being a switch-hitter, Hicks has had two sides of the plate in which to polish his mechanics and both have undergone some interesting transformations since 2011. Hicks from the right: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1350623225_AaronHicks.jpg While the angles and the graininess of the 2012 minor league camera shot do not provide the highest quality to judge these two stances on, there are some things that you can derive without having the same shot side-by-side. The first is where his hands are set pre-swing. While he has a similar hold, in these two pictures you can see that his elbows/hands are lower during his time with the Miracle (left) then they were with the Rock Cats (right). This may sound like a minute detail but elevated hands, in theory, create more leverage by engaging the top hand. For a line drive/ground ball hitter, this equates to harder hit balls, perhaps as easily identifiable as his spike in isolated power (from .124 in 2011 to .173 in 2012) and a big jump in batting average on balls in play (from .308 to .346). The second difference between 2011 Hicks and 2012 Hicks is the lowered stance with the deeper knee bend. This compacted stance figures to generate more power from his hips and lower half. In addition to the higher hand set this, according to minorleaguecentral.com, has lead to a higher fly ball rate from the right-side (from 29% in 2011 to 39% in 2012) and more home runs (from 3 to 7). Hicks from the left: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/AaronHicks_Left_1.jpg The same disclaimer from above applies to this one as well: the angle and the graininess distort some perception and do not provide a crystal clear view to compare fully. As opposed to the shots above, these two images are of Hicks striding from the left-hand side. The first thing that stands out is where his hands are had at the loaded position. In the (left), his hands are lower and, judging by the angle, closer to his body. In the 2012 version (right), his hands are slightly higher and away from his body. This should give him a quicker path to the ball.Interestingly, when Hicks was first drafted, he had a severely long swing from the left side (which you can see in this pre-draft swing .gif here). His hands were significantly higher which led to an elongated swing. So these modifications are simply the evolution in shortening that swing. Also, similar to the aforementioned right-hand side, he is also compacted more which gives leaves him able to generate power from the lower-half better. The alterations made have led to a higher line drive rate (from 13% to 19%) and more power (from 2 home runs to 6) from this side of the plate. **** This should be viewed as very positive development for the 23 year old prospect. Along with his above average defense – including his exceptional arm in the outfield – Hicks has reaffirmed the belief that he is an elite prospect after putting up terrific numbers in double-A. With some seasoning in Rochester schedule for this year, if this progress continues, Hicks could quickly make his way into the Twins outfield.

As Seth Stohs mentioned yesterday, while the rest of us at Twins Daily were all stark raving mad about Kyle Gibson’s performance in the Arizona Fall League, another Twins prospect was making noise even further south. Outfielder Aaron Hicks, who is playing winthttp://apps.startribune.com/blogs/fckeditor/editor/images/spacer.gifer ball in Venezuela, is off to a fast start this offseason, matching the expectation he set from his in-season performance at New Britain. Of course, not long ago, Hicks was in danger of falling off the “top prospect” radar although. Heading into the 2011 season, Baseball America dropped him from 19TH to 45TH despite a terrific first full season at the low-A level in Beloit. Then, as if Baseball America’s rankings had influence, Hicks lost some power and over 30 points in the batting average at Ft Myers the following year. The criticism on Hicks’s approach is that he could be too passive at times. Hicks boasts a high strikeout rate and a significant portion of those (39%) in 2011 were of the caught-looking variety, an indication that he was not aggressive enough with two strikes on him. Of course, the other side of the coin is that it has led to a 14% career minor league walk rate – a solid pillar supporting his .379 on-base percentage. While walks are en vogue with OBP-ers, there are those in the system who would like to see him use his six-foot-two athletic frame to transfer some power into the ball. His 2010 season at Beloit had him smacking eight home runs but that total dwindled down to five after his foray with the Miracle in Fort Myers. Part of the reason for the drop off simply had to do with the offensive difficulty of the Florida State League. As the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller explained this year, hitting is dern tough way down south: When he transitioned from high-A ball in the Florida State League to an even more polished level of competition of the double-A Eastern League, rather than being buried by the tougher pitching Hicks elevated his game. His matriculation to double-A ball could have also been a hindrance - given the significant leap in talent - but Hicks did not allow it. He hit a healthy .286/.384/.460 with 13 home runs. Where did this production come from? Was it simply a course correction after leaving the Florida State League or did Hicks make adjustments elsewhere? Being a switch-hitter, Hicks has had two sides of the plate in which to polish his mechanics and both have undergone some interesting transformations since 2011. Hicks from the right: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1350623225_AaronHicks.jpg While the angles and the graininess of the 2012 minor league camera shot do not provide the highest quality to judge these two stances on, there are some things that you can derive without having the same shot side-by-side. The first is where his hands are set pre-swing. While he has a similar hold, in these two pictures you can see that his elbows/hands are lower during his time with the Miracle (left) then they were with the Rock Cats (right). This may sound like a minute detail but elevated hands, in theory, create more leverage by engaging the top hand. For a line drive/ground ball hitter, this equates to harder hit balls, perhaps as easily identifiable as his spike in isolated power (from .124 in 2011 to .173 in 2012) and a big jump in batting average on balls in play (from .308 to .346). The second difference between 2011 Hicks and 2012 Hicks is the lowered stance with the deeper knee bend. This compacted stance figures to generate more power from his hips and lower half. In addition to the higher hand set this, according to minorleaguecentral.com, has lead to a higher fly ball rate from the right-side (from 29% in 2011 to 39% in 2012) and more home runs (from 3 to 7). Hicks from the left: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/AaronHicks_Left_1.jpg The same disclaimer from above applies to this one as well: the angle and the graininess distort some perception and do not provide a crystal clear view to compare fully. As opposed to the shots above, these two images are of Hicks striding from the left-hand side. The first thing that stands out is where his hands are had at the loaded position. In the (left), his hands are lower and, judging by the angle, closer to his body. In the 2012 version (right), his hands are slightly higher and away from his body. This should give him a quicker path to the ball.Interestingly, when Hicks was first drafted, he had a severely long swing from the left side (which you can see in this pre-draft swing .gif here). His hands were significantly higher which led to an elongated swing. So these modifications are simply the evolution in shortening that swing. Also, similar to the aforementioned right-hand side, he is also compacted more which gives leaves him able to generate power from the lower-half better. The alterations made have led to a higher line drive rate (from 13% to 19%) and more power (from 2 home runs to 6) from this side of the plate. **** This should be viewed as very positive development for the 23 year old prospect. Along with his above average defense – including his exceptional arm in the outfield – Hicks has reaffirmed the belief that he is an elite prospect after putting up terrific numbers in double-A. With some seasoning in Rochester schedule for this year, if this progress continues, Hicks could quickly make his way into the Twins outfield.

Just over a year removed from his Tommy John surgery, Twins pitching prospect Kyle Gibson has made two encouraging starts in Arizona, firing 92-to-95-mph bullets and keeping the game’s top prospects off-balanced with an 83-86-mph slider. That’s right: Hitting 95 miles per hour according to the Pitch F/X system in Arizona. Let’s take a look at why his AFL performance should give Twins fans hope. According to MLB.com, Gibson has been aware of the velocity increase and views it as a positive sign: According to BrooksBaseball.net, Gibson’s fastball/sinker combination was caught at the 2011 Futures Game registering 91.8/91.3-mile per hour, respectively, by the Pitch F/X cameras. So far in the Arizona Fall League this year, those same pitches are averaging 93.3/93.2 miles per hour, very much up a “tick.” Gibson said he had been working on refining his mechanics, something that was critiqued at the time of his draft, and that is one factor behind the added velocity: In addition to throwing with a newly insert ligament, Gibson has had time to smooth out those rough spots in his motion. During the time of Nationals’ phenom Stephen Strasburg’s rehab, the notion of added velocity for some TJ survivors was credited to several factors including conditioning applied during the recovery period as well as the down time allotted pitchers to scrutinize and improve mechanics. But those radar gun readings are not the only thing that has made Gibson’s “sinker” (actually a two-seamer) so incredibly hard to square up on. In spring of 2011, prior to his ligament snapping, Gibson was turning heads in camp with this pitch’s action. Back then, the Star Tribune’s La Velle Neal wrote that he could “throw at a left-handed hitter’s hip and watch it break toward the inside corner.” The movement displayed by this pitch is quite impressive. Check out the pitcher’s arm side run that this one takes during spring practice to Mauer in 2011: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1298869473_Gibson_TwoSeamer.gif Coupling with the movement and velocity of his ground-ball inducing sinker is his swing-and-miss generating slider – a slider that was christened by Baseball America in January as the “best” slider in the Twins’ system. In two starts in Arizona this fall, Gibson’s slider has induced 15 missed bats on 22 swings (34 sliders overall). Here comes the obvious precursory small sample size warning applies with 34 pitches but his 68% whiffs/swing would top the Baseball Prospectus’ Pitch F/X Leaderboard, as the next closest would be Zach Britton at 52%. Don’t be fooled by the raving scouting report above – it would be unwise of the front office to head into the 2013 satisfied they have found another internal candidate to carry them through 200 innings. However, if the Twins are able to coax Gibson through the fall, winter and spring without any setbacks, given his display of above-average stuff, he undoubtedly could be a valuable part of the rotation in some capacity.

Just over a year removed from his Tommy John surgery, Twins pitching prospect Kyle Gibson has made two encouraging starts in Arizona, firing 92-to-95-mph bullets and keeping the game’s top prospects off-balanced with an 83-86-mph slider. That’s right: Hitting 95 miles per hour according to the Pitch F/X system in Arizona. Let’s take a look at why his AFL performance should give Twins fans hope. According to MLB.com, Gibson has been aware of the velocity increase and views it as a positive sign: According to BrooksBaseball.net, Gibson’s fastball/sinker combination was caught at the 2011 Futures Game registering 91.8/91.3-mile per hour, respectively, by the Pitch F/X cameras. So far in the Arizona Fall League this year, those same pitches are averaging 93.3/93.2 miles per hour, very much up a “tick.” Gibson said he had been working on refining his mechanics, something that was critiqued at the time of his draft, and that is one factor behind the added velocity: In addition to throwing with a newly insert ligament, Gibson has had time to smooth out those rough spots in his motion. During the time of Nationals’ phenom Stephen Strasburg’s rehab, the notion of added velocity for some TJ survivors was credited to several factors including conditioning applied during the recovery period as well as the down time allotted pitchers to scrutinize and improve mechanics. But those radar gun readings are not the only thing that has made Gibson’s “sinker” (actually a two-seamer) so incredibly hard to square up on. In spring of 2011, prior to his ligament snapping, Gibson was turning heads in camp with this pitch’s action. Back then, the Star Tribune’s La Velle Neal wrote that he could “throw at a left-handed hitter’s hip and watch it break toward the inside corner.” The movement displayed by this pitch is quite impressive. Check out the pitcher’s arm side run that this one takes during spring practice to Mauer in 2011: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1298869473_Gibson_TwoSeamer.gif Coupling with the movement and velocity of his ground-ball inducing sinker is his swing-and-miss generating slider – a slider that was christened by Baseball America in January as the “best” slider in the Twins’ system. In two starts in Arizona this fall, Gibson’s slider has induced 15 missed bats on 22 swings (34 sliders overall). Here comes the obvious precursory small sample size warning applies with 34 pitches but his 68% whiffs/swing would top the Baseball Prospectus’ Pitch F/X Leaderboard, as the next closest would be Zach Britton at 52%. Don’t be fooled by the raving scouting report above – it would be unwise of the front office to head into the 2013 satisfied they have found another internal candidate to carry them through 200 innings. However, if the Twins are able to coax Gibson through the fall, winter and spring without any setbacks, given his display of above-average stuff, he undoubtedly could be a valuable part of the rotation in some capacity.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2498[/ATTACH]For the past four years, we have produced an Offseason Handbook to put fans in the driver’s seat of the Twins franchise. Within it, we highlight all of the winter’s impending free agents, potential trade targets and review the organization’s strengths and weaknesses from top to bottom. This culminates with the presentation of our blueprints to improving the team. In my blueprint, I laid out a fairly elementary explanation as to why the Twins failed so miserably in 2012 and, no, it was not a six-word piece that read “JOE MAUER SHOULD HEET MOR DINGERS.” While the starting pitching takes precedence and priority, the secondary issue was that scoring runs was also a weak spot for the 2012 squad. Consider this: Only three other American League teams finished with a lower runs per game average than the Minnesota Twins (Seattle, Cleveland and Kansas City). After focusing on repairing the rotation, I outlined several realistic moves that should help elevate the number of runs scored for next season but the move I would like to discuss here is this: Sign Kevin Youkilis. Yes, there is a huge hurdle to clear when it comes to Youkilis and that is his impending option for $12 million which the White Sox hold the rights to. Collectively, because of that hefty payday and his lackluster performance in 2012, we decided that Chicago will opt to pass and allow him to become a free agent. At which point, we estimate that the market will put him in the two-year, $14 million range (or perhaps even a one year, make-good type of contract). Across the board, Youk’s 2012 production was at the lowest levels of his career. His power was down, his average was down and his on-base percentage was down. Even the mighty Greek God of Walks’ walks were down. It could be based on an age-related decline or something mechanical lurking in that funky swing of his, however, if you are basing just purely on his batted ball rates, there is indication that 2013 may see a change for the better. For the most part, Youkilis’s batting ball rates were consistent with his career. His line drive rate was high but he had been hitting a higher percentage of ground balls the past two seasons and those did not find nearly as many holes in the infield as they once did (hence the significant decline in average and OBP). This resulted in a 54 point difference in his batting average on balls in play versus his career norm. Even if he maintains the higher ground ball rate and equals his near 20% line drive rate, he should experience some correction in those numbers. For a guy who sprays the field in all directions regularly, Youkilis also has some pretty significant pull power. From 2008 to 2011, his .899 slugging percentage when yanking the ball was the fourth best in baseball, ahead of even Josh Willingham. Additionally, Youk’s numbers against left-handed pitching in that time was also among the best in the game. His 1.044 OPS in those years facing wrong-handers was the third-highest behind just Albert Pujols and David Wright. Admittedly, a lot of that power is derived from feasting on the close proximity of the Green Monster but even still, Youkilis had success on the road as well. Obviously there are shortcomings when it comes to signing Youkilis. For starters, it denigrates the defense. Heading into his mid-30s, his glove work is not what it used to be. Likewise, as you will find in the blueprint, the subsequent move after signing Youk would be that Trevor Plouffe would be relocated to second base. Once again this downgrades the infield defense (and potentially increases the amount of souvenir balls thrown into the first base stands) but should increase the production in the lineup by putting a power-hitting second baseman in the order. If he indeed bounces back, Youk’s addition would give the Twins the capabilities of moving Mauer up to the two-spot and insert a high quality right-handed bat with impressive on-base skills to, ultimately, score more runs. If you purchase the Offseason Handbook (which you can download a free preview by clicking the link), you will read more about that specific move as well as other recommendations to improve the team. Not only do we provide our blueprints but we supply you with teems of information on the free agent, potential trade targets and the organization from top-to-bottom to allow you to create your own blueprint for success.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2468[/ATTACH]Joe Mauer hit just one infield fly ball all year making his 1.0% infield fly rate the second lowest in all of baseball. That’s a significant increase over his totals last year when he did not hit a single fly ball to anyone in the infield. See, there is still plenty of reason to boo him. Mauer is often credited with having the perfect swing, and the fact that he is not popping pitches up to the second baseman is telling how square he hits the ball. That said Twins fans rarely saw this elusive perfect swing this year as his 35.4% swing rate was the lowest in baseball (compared to the 46% league average). Once again, Mauer led baseball by swinging at just 8% of total first pitches thrown to him. With that reputation, rumor has it that Hollywood is tapping Mauer to star in the latest action movie sequel,Taken 3: The First Pitch. 32 times this year Denard Span was on second base when a double was hit – the most in baseball. I don’t know what it means but it is provocative. Speaking of Span, because he was caught looking in a baseball-high 48% of his strikeouts, he receives baseball’s 2012 Voyeurism Award for liking to watch so much. Josh Willingham had an incredible power year for the Twins – dropping 35 dingers on the crowd. That’s more than anyone in one season in a Twins uniform not named “Killebrew”. But, with great power comes great responsibility…and then some strikeouts. The Hammer came perilously close to breaking another dubious honor: At 141 strikeouts on the year, he was just five shy of overtaking Bobby Darwin as the Twins’ single-season strikeout king. Darwin had set that mark of 145 in 1972. Willingham is probably voting for Mitt Romney this election because, like Romney, he too enjoyed destroying lefties: his 15 home runs were tied with Chicago’s Adam Dunn for the most off of wrong-handed pitchers. Even though Willingham had the highest total, it was Justin Morneau who put on the display. According to HitTrackerOnline.com, Morneau had top three longest home runs hit this season in terms of “true distance” which went 451, 448 and 439 feet respectively. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Ben Revere’s 43 infield hits were tops in the American League. This is not surprising due to (A) his speed and ( his 67% ground ball rate. The real question is, are we sure he’s hitting the ball on those and not just catching it and throwing it as far as he can? Can we re-check the video in slo-mo? Swinging to contact? The offense paced baseball with an 82% contact rate on their swings. Span and Revere were a regular Murderer’s Row for contact, putting the bat on the ball in 92% of their swings. Defensively, the Twins ability to control the run game was atrocious. Whether you want to blame it on the pitching staff for not holding runners or the catchers for being unable to throw them out, the Twins were able to throw out 15 would-be base-stealers on 135 attempts. Only Pittsburgh threw out fewer base-stealers (14). The Twins starters threw more than 100 pitches in just 29 starts this year. Only the hapless Rockies had fewer starts (15) with going over the century mark. (Editor’s note: Depressed yet?) How about that pitching to contact philosophy? The 2012 rotation excelled in that department. Fangraphs.com says their 83.9% contact rate was the highest in baseball. Unfortunately for the Twins, it was not glancing blows, either. The starters had the worst production out of their fastballs so says Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value warehouse. The Twins starters’ fastballs were collectively -89.2 runs below average. That’s how you don’t make it to 100 pitches in a night… The Twins pitching staff surrendered 23 “No Doubt” home runs. Those are categorized at HitTrackerOnline.com as those which the “ball cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet AND landed at least 50 feet past the fence.” Cole DeVries led all pitchers with five No Doubters allowed. The Twins’ 541 strikeouts by their starting pitching staff were, bar none, the least in baseball. Yet, that’s not even the worst performance Minnesota fans have witnessed by their rotation. In club history, it ranks as the 11th lowest strikeout mark (excluding strike-shortened seasons). So, yeah, itcould have been worse. Scott Diamond may have been the Pitcher of the Year for the Twins but he did not get that title by missing bats. According to Pitch F/X, his four-seam fastball induced a swing-and-miss just 6.1% of the time, the lowest the game this year. On the flip side, opponents beat that pitch into the ground 58% of the time, the second-highest rate behind teammate Samuel Deduno. What may have made his fastball that effect was how much he worked in his 11-to-5 curveball. Diamond spun his hook 29.1% of the time, making him the pitcher to use his curveball the most in the American League. The Twins used 25 pitchers this year, a new franchise record. Correction: The Twins used 24 pitchers this year and one Drew Butura. That number topped last year’s previous record of 24. The bullpen was a fairly bright spot this year and overlooked among Glen Perkins and Jared Burton’s solid seasons is the work done by Brian Duensing. Although he can be a human pitching machine when he starts, in the pen he’s nearly unhittable. This season, he allowed just one home run in relief making his 0.16 home runs allowed per nine innings the third lowest in the game and the second lowest for the Twins in the past twenty years. Only Tom Eden’s 0.12 in 1992 bests the Duenslinger’s total. That’s your useless Tom Eden trivia for the year. Nick Blackburn’s 7.39 ERA as a starter in 2012 is tied with Jim Deshaies (1994) as the worst Twins ERA with a minimum of 90 innings pitched. On that note, if you are interested in reading more about the 2012 Twins team and how to improve the 2013 squad, Twins Daily now has the 2013 Offseason Handbook ready for pre-order. If you order now, you can save yourself some cash in the process.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2455[/ATTACH]Joe Mauer’s noble effort to obtain his fourth batting title was thwarted when those cyborgs known as Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout were unrelenting. That notwithstanding, this has been an outstanding rebound season for the Twins catcher. Considering the slow start by his standards, his .320 average heading into the last day of the season is impressive nonetheless. At the beginning of May, his average was down to .270 before he checked into the Rip City Motel and hit .336 over his last 115 games. A closer inspection of his numbers reveals something very interesting that you might want to sit down for. For the first time in his major league career Joe Mauer pulled the ball more often than he went the other away with the pitch. I’ll let you digest that for a moment because it seems so improbable compared to what we have become accustom to. Between 2004 and 2011, Mauer accumulated 447 hits going to left field. That was the fifth highest total in that time behind preeminent going-the-other-way hitters in Ichiro, Derek Jeter, Michael Young and Juan Pierre. Still, no one had a higher average when going oppo than Mauer’s .436. His ability to inside-out a pitch or drive a fastball on the outer half the other way has had its rewards for the Twins catcher. It was that methodology that helped him obtain three batting titles while having five seasons with an average over .300. Although he still went to left field with a high percentage of his balls in play and had plenty of success on them (a .432 average when going oppo in 2012), it was his improvement when pulling the ball that helped him raise his average from the career-low .287 average he possessed in 2011. Starting in late 2010, according to Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra, Mauer’s knee ailments were keeping him from “getting off his backside” on his swing. This led to him being “unable to turn on the ball.” With his health returning, Mauer seemed much better at turning on pitches. At BaseballProspectus.com, this Pitch F/X chart shows just how much better he was when swinging at pitches down-and-in and middle-down: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2454[/ATTACH] A year ago, he was 6-for-21 (.286) on pitches in the down-and-in quadrant. This year he has been 21-for-43 (.488). In 2011, Mauer pulled the ball 25.3% of the time – down from his career average closer to 30% - and he hit just .242 when going to the right side of the field. This year, he turned on the ball 32% of the time and posted a .310 average. Now, he still beat the ball into the ground over 80% of the time in both season but this year, he was having a higher success rate of sneaking those through the infield – likely a direct result of better struck balls because of a strong base.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2431[/ATTACH]With the possible exception of the popularity of “Call Me Maybe”, nothing has spun more out of control in 2012 than the Minnesota Twins starting pitching. Categorically the Twins rotation has produced some of the least desirable stats in the American League. For starters, their misshapen 5.50 ERA tops the charts. Performances like Nick Blackburn (7.39 ERA in 19 starts), Brian Duensing (6.92 in 11 starts) and Liam Hendriks (6.13 ERA in 15 starts) shows where that number can be quickly inflated. Adding insult to injury, their expected Fielding Independent Pitching (4.60 xFIP) is the highest in all of baseball and offers no reprieve that would suggest perhaps, just maybe, the local staff was unfairly fastened to that ugly ERA. Not surprising either is the fact that the rotation is currently averaging just 5.4 innings per starts - the lowest average in the American League. If you happened to have attended a Jason Marquis start and stopped for popcorn on your way to the seat, chances are with him getting the hook before the fifth inning (4.9), you would have missed your opportunity to see him pitch. Same scenario could be applied for a Duensing start as well (4.7). It is probably easy to deduce judging from the bloated ERA and the early showers that the rotation’s Quality Start percentage would also be adversely affected. And you would be punctilious in assuming that. In just 38% of their contests (60 of 152 games), the Twins have managed to get through six innings with allowing three runs or less. The biggest culprit, which has resulted in the sideways statistics listed above, is the battle of the first inning – a batter in which the Twins are losing in spectacular fashion. In the first inning, the Twins starters have issued 69 walks and allowed 32 home runs. Like politics and family dinners or crack and Charlie Sheen, putting runners on base and then surrendering moon shots is a volatile combination. Only Baltimore and Kansas City encroach on that home run mark (30 each), as we all know, the O’s are playing this season protected by a bubble of pixie dust and unicorn farts from Pythagoras and his nerdy theories. It is a year in which no matter how many runs they allow, the Orioles still wind up winning more games than they lose. The Twins and Royals, meanwhile, play in the real world where giving up runs in bunches has legitimate consequences. Right now, the Twins lead the American League in runs allowed in the first inning with 124. That’s a remarkable deficit to put one’s team into. Compare that to what may be a less talent Oakland A’s team on paper. With their brood of starters all under the age of 30, the A’s have allowed just 56 runs in the first inning. With a 68-runs allowed differential between the A’s and the Twins, if you subscribe to the notion that 10 runs equals one win, then Oakland is, in theory, 7-wins better than Minnesota in the first inning alone. Obviously, the original plan was not to head into the year with Scott Diamond, Cole De Vries, Sam Deduno or Brian Duensing taking up a large portion of the starts. Then again, the original plan was not all that solid, either. The Twins rolled the dice heading into 2012 and plowed forward with a starting rotation that was held together by a wing and a prayer. Scott Baker had always struggled with injuries. Nick Blackburn had not only been battling injuries but had been highly ineffective overall. Carl Pavano was showing signs of aging, with a strikeout rate and velocity that dropped in 2011. Francisco Liriano had a clunker of a 2011 and was nothing more than a coin-flip with a high upside if everything landed correctly. So much had to break in the team’s favor in order for this group to succeed, instead it all fell apart early on. As Terry Ryan spoke to in his conference call last night with season ticket holders, the highest priority will be to acquire starting pitching – whether it be through trades, free agency or exploring the international market. There is plenty of room for improvement and if the Twins are looking to raise their win total in 2013, giving their lineup a fighting chance in the battle of the first inning is a good place to start.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2400[/ATTACH]Since assuming the closer’s role for good, Glen Perkins has been absolutely brilliant, now converting 11 consecutive save opportunities. There was one semi-minor hiccup – allowing a solo home run to Andruw Jones to bring the Yankees within one of the Twins. The pitch was clearly a slider which was intended to be buried at Jones’s feet but rather hung belt high over the plate. It wound up being the third home run Perkins has surrendered on his slider this year. Since June 12, 33 of Jared Burton’s last 36 appearances have been scoreless. As Seth Stohs noted yesterday, he’s been one hell of an acquisition for the Twins front office. In fact, among all pitchers, Burton’s performance in high leverage situation – those in which the game is on the line – have been the best in baseball. Under those circumstances, opponents are hitting just .083 – the lowest in the MLB. Of course, Burton’s performance in those situations should have no bearing on his future performance. For example, the Nationals’ Tyler Clippard led baseball with a .067 average against in high leverage situations in 2011 and ended up with a .230 average against this season. Still, Burton is sound nonetheless. He’s got a high swing-and-miss rate (13.8%) and with a solid changeup, he gets a ton chases out of the zone (37.7%). The Yankees’ Phil Hughes had entered last night’s game with the worst numbers when facing right-handed hitting in 2012. In addition to a .307/.343/.595 batting line against, he’s also allowed 23 home runs to righties this year. Naturally, the Twins have two right-handed hitters in the lineup – Trevor Plouffe and Jamey Carroll – who go 1-for- 6 with just a single from Carroll. According to the Twins’ official press release, after Joe Mauer threw out two would-be Yankees base thieves, it marked the first time he had nailed two runners in a game since July 28, 2011 in Texas. This now brings his season total to five runners caught – a trend which may be sourced to improper mechanics. Following Liam Hendriks’ three-run first inning on Monday night, the Twins total first innings runs allowed reached 124 on the year – 52 more runs in the first than that of last year. Nick Nelson plays the comparison game with Liam Hendriks, likening the start of his career to another homer-happy Twins hurler. In detailing Hendriks’ woes last week, I noted that his inability or reluctance to pitch right-handers inside adversely affected the outcome of his slider. According to Baseball Prospectus’s Pitch F/X leaderboard, it is one of the least effective sliders in 2012. First is the utter destruction of the pitch. While Ervin Santana (13) has outpaced Hendriks (7) and the rest of baseball in terms of home runs allowed on the pitch, keep in mind Santana has thrown many more this year – spinning 948 to Hendriks’ 172 sliders. In fact, among those who have had seven or more home runs hit off of their slider, the minimum amount of had been 630 (Jason Marquis). Second, in addition to being hit hard, he’s simply unable to retire anyone with what should be a put away pitch but Hendriks’ 4.35% put away percentage is currently the lowest in baseball. In his last start, the one thing Hendriks did extremely well was attacking the inner-half of the plate on the right-handed hitting Alex Rodriguez which opened up the outer-half for his slider. The Wall Street Journal examines just how biased your hometown announcers are. Where does Dick & Bert rate among all of baseball?

The front office will likely do some shopping-n-swapping to infill the rotation this winter however one member of the Twins staff who is almost certain to get an opportunity to win a role next spring is Samuel Deduno. For the most part, Deduno’s unexpected and head-scratching success has continued across his 13 starts. He has struggled to get ahead of hitters (54% first pitch strike rate compared to the 60% league average) and then falls deeper behind in the count (8% of all his plate appearances went to 3-0 counts) and ultimately loses the battle of the balls. As such, his 15% walk rate is the highest in baseball among all starters with a minimum of 70 innings pitched. Because of this, the expected Fielding Independent Pitching metric -- which takes batted ball trajectory, strikeouts and, most pertinent to Deduno, walks -- calculates him to have an earned run average closer to 4.60 rather than the 3.84 that he is currently sporting. If you were applying the standard statistical analysis to this situation, it would be easy to label the right-hander as a case ripe for regression. After all, Deduno has allowed 48 hitters on base via walk but somehow has managed to keep a high percentage of those from scoring. He has stranded nearly 80% of all base-runners which is well above the league norm of 72%. At some point, a ball chops through the infield here or a subsequent hitter manages to get one up into the jet stream to plate some runs there. Yet again, Deduno has been extremely fortunate in that respect as well. Consider this for luck: Line drives become hits approximately 73% of the time. It makes sense when you think about the trajectory and speed that causes frozen ropes to be quite hard to defend. Yet line drives from Deduno’s opponents have turned into hits just 60% of the time. Somewhere down the line, that number is surely going to regress to the mean and drive his overall batting average on balls in play – which is at a miniscule .258 right now – back closer to the league average. While regression in 2013 would be the anticipated response based upon the above two paragraphs, if you consider how little opponents have been able to actually square up on his repertoire, there could be a correlation as to why the majority of his balls put into play have been fielded. The biggest factor is his ground ball rate. At 58%, his worm-killing rate is the seventh highest among those with a minimum o f 70 innings. The next significant indicator of his ability to avoid heavy contact is his 18% infield fly ball rate. What that means is that nearly 20% of all the fly balls hit are not getting past the infield dirt. As of Thursday, only former Twin Johan Santana (19%) has been able to keep a higher percentage of flies from leaving the infield. What this statistic is indicative of is their ability to get hitters to lunge and make off-balanced contact with pitches. When first introduced to the Twins, the initial reaction was that Deduno came equipped with a fairly legit curveball. In 2007, Baseball America graded his curve a 70 on the scout’s 20-to-80 scale. In 2010 Deduno was pitching in the Rockies organization. Coming off one spring training outing as a 26-year-old manager Jim Tracy simply said “Those were paralyzing-type curveballs.” Major league hitters would likely agree with those assessments of the pitch as they have hit just .153 off of it and he has racked up 39 of his 54 strikeouts with the curve. As impressive as his curve ball has been, Deduno possesses a ridiculously underappreciated weapon in his fastball. According to Baseball Prospectus’s Pitch F/X leaderboard, Deduno’s four-seam fastball has induced the highest amount of ground balls on that pitch since the inception of Pitch F/X in 2007. Sure, it is only 403 pitches but his 68% ground ball rate on a four-seam fastball is downright unbelievable. The reason he is getting such an incredible amount of grounders is because of the sink action he has on his “crazy fastball.” Deduno’s movement on his four-seam fastball almost defies physics as four-seamers – which because of the backspin created more often tend to give the illusion of “rising” - generally have the least amount of sink among all pitches. On average, Pitch F/X says that the majority of four-seam fastballs have a vertical movement of roughly 8.60 in measured in 2009. As a rule of thumb, the higher that number, the greater the “rise” action or conversely, the lower that number, the greater the sink. To provide some perspective, the Angels’ Jared Weaver, whose fastball has been described as having “hop”, has a vertical movement of 12.23 on his fastball. On the other end of the spectrum, the Indians’ Justin Masterson, who has one of the “heavier” fastballs, has a vertical movement of 4.24. That use to be the most sink on a four-seam fastball. That is, it was until July 7 when Samuel Deduno started pitching. Deduno’s four-seam fastball has a vertical movement of 2.76. For those who are not properly geeked up by those numbers, here’s another visual: The average split-finger fastball has a vertical movement of 3.37 which means Deduno’s four-seam fastball has more vertical sink than an average split-finger fastball. Take a look at the pitch’s action in all its .gif glory: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Deduno_Fastball.gif This particular one not only sinks, but has arm side run for days as both Seattle’s Trayvon Robinson and Ryan Doumit were fooled by the late movement. Later, Doumit was at a loss in attempting to explain the movement and where it comes from. “I don’t know if it’s finger pressure or wrist angle or what it is, but he’s got a gift of natural movement on the fastball and the changeup,” said the Twins catcher. Deduno’s movement is exciting and provides explanation as to why he is out-performing his Fielding Independent Pitching figures. Hitters simply cannot square up on anything they swing at. However, if they put on a swing boycott, his inconsistent control may lead to too many free passes – beyond the point where he can continue to strand them all. This was evident in his most recent start against the White Sox where he walked five and three of those came around to score. Deduno will take the mound tonight to take on the Tigers. Watch for some of that crazy fastball movement and if he can locate it in the strike zone.