Parker Hageman

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On Tuesday night, in a 8-4 loss to the Detroit Tigers, Ben Revere went two-for-five on the night and had his average settle in at .317 – one one-hundredth of a point behind teammate and three-time American League batting champion Joe Mauer. This average was a far cry from his numbers last year when on this same day he was hitting a paltry .245. After being sent to Rochester in the early part of 2012, Revere worked with Red Wings hitting coach Tom Brunansky to get his swing back to the one which was producing consistent .300 averages over his minor league career. Together they found one small difference in his major league and minor league swing. In a recent conversation with Fangraphs.com’s David Laurila, Revere explained what he had changed in order to gain these statistical improvements: Here is a side-by-side comparison of Revere 2011 stance and his 2012 stance. Notice how Revere’s hand placement is not necessarily higher but it is more perpendicular to the ground. Certainly the bottom hand is in a more elevated position in 2012 versus the 2011 edition: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2021[/ATTACH] What about Revere’s claims that the new positioning has helped him handle the inside pitch better? Last year he labored against pitches on the inner half of the plate. According to Inside Edge’s data Revere had a .036 well-hit ball average on those thrown inside in 2011 which was the third lowest in all of baseball. Because of that he posted a .389 OPS when pulling the ball – the worst mark in the MLB. This season however, Revere has put the ball into play at a much better rate – even on pitches being thrown closer to him. By Inside Edge’s numbers Revere is now posting a .169 well-hit average on pitches inside. And – while it is not a Josh Willingham-sian figure, mind you – he has a .620 OPS when turning on a pitch. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2022[/ATTACH] An inch. Maybe a couple. That’s it. That’s offensively. What about in the outfield where he covers many more inches than the rest of his right field brethren? Inside Edge has also added defensive data to their repertoire. Unlike Ultimate Zone Rating or Plus/Minus which bases their numbers on a grid-like pattern on the field, Inside Edge’s data is pure scouting. They gauge plays made or missed for outfielders in several buckets for potential for making the play – Almost Certain, Likely, Even Chance, Unlikely and Remote. An Almost Certain is essentially a can-of-corn fly ball hit right at a player while a Remote play looks a lot like this one. Across the board, Revere is currently the best-in-class among right fielders in 2012: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2023[/ATTACH] Although his defensive prowess was never truly in question, Revere has transformed from a player whom many figured to be an offensive liability to one who can hit his way on base regularly. He is proving that he can be a vital component of this Twins lineup – inch by inch.

After missing 21 game, the Minnesota Twins make it official, announcing that third baseman Trevor Plouffe is off the DL. In his short two-game rehab stint in Rochester, Plouffe went 0-for-8 with a walk and two strikeouts. Not surprising to anyone, the Twins will opt to send Tsuyoshi Nishioka back to Rochester as the corresponding move.

Exactly. It was a measurement of his past performance. All DVOR, WAR, VORP, etc are measurements of past performance and are not predictive statistics. What we can say about Ponder's 2011 season based on his DVOR in those given situations is that he struggled during pressure situations AND struggled more during non-pressure situations. The hope is that the Vikings have improved the outside factors (offensive line protection, receivers) and Ponder has learned something from that experience to be a better QB in those circumstances in 2012. Highly disagree that it is a "waste of everyone's time." Inherently, just like baseball, there will be additional elements that are not factored into a player's overall value number. That does not mean you cannot produce metrics that attempt to measure a player's contributions to a team's efforts. Football -- even for the "psychological" nature (which I would contest has no more influence than any other sport) -- is not chaotic. It still can be divided, measured, compared and assigned value as is the case with the DVOR.

@Cap'n -- Good research (and yes, there is an Expected Wins stat already). I wasn't trying to contest that he would have lost any of those starts he had this year -- after all, he's allowed over 4 runs in just one of his starts. The idea is that if his ERA does go up to 4-ish (which, based on the xFIP and his very high DP rate of 22%, it will likely creep northward) and his run support drops to close to the league's average of 4.4, then the record next year will probably not be as impressive as it is this year.

That definitely puffed up his RS/9 number a bit but the team still scored five or more runs for him (including 11 runs three other times) in another six starts. It would still be an above average rate even if those two outings were removed. And, again, there's an element of "luck" at play there considering, in the 19-run outburst, he allowed 5 runs.

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One of the biggest surprises of the Twins season has to be the performance of starter Scott Diamond. Written off by many as just another “soft tossing pitcher” in the organization, Diamond has shown mastery of the strike zone and has been getting ground outs by the barrelful. This has led to a 10-5 record and a 2.91 ERA – the sixth best in the American League. While radar gun enthusiasts and strike out fanatics are not likely thrilled by his skill set, Diamond is proving that it is not necessary velocity that makes the pitcher. Let’s take a look at what has made him so successful this year. (1) Release Point/Plane Change Diamond’s over-the-top release point gives him a very high angle. Pitch F/X, which captures the first data of a pitcher’s pitch at 55 feet, shows that Diamond’s pitches are at approximately six-feet-four inches on average – which, by comparison, is slightly higher than the taller lefty teammate Tyler Robertson. Combine that with crossing the plate at the knees or lower regularly and you have a solid recipe for grounders. As 1500ESPN.com’s Phil Mackey pointed out recently in a great piece detailing Diamond’s outstanding game preparation, the majority of his misses are low. Mackey cites a stat that said just 6% of his entire offerings this season have missed the strike zone high. This downward trajectory ensures that he is changing planes and making it more difficult for hitters to do anything besides hit the top of the ball thereby inducing a high percentage of ground balls. [ATTACH=CONFIG]1857[/ATTACH] There’s more than just his ability to keep the ball down in the zone that has made him effective this year. His curveball, which may be his best pitch, may be the key behind elevating his fastball from pedestrian to impressive. (2) Noon-to-Six Curveball/Effective Velocity His curve is released at the same point as his fastball but, unlike other pitchers’ sweeping version, Diamond throws his with a 12-to-6 break (north-south movement versus the east-west type). Because the path of his curveball follows the same trajectory as his fastball before it dips – as opposed to many 11-to-4 curves which deviate off of the fastball’s path sooner - hitters will have a more difficult time deciphering between the two offerings. This is what has been one of the practices of the “Effective Velocity” teachings. Part of the Effective Velocity theory is that hitters have approximately 20 feet to decide what the pitch is as they are beginning their swing. The longer an off-speed pitch looks like a fastball or vice versa, the better the odds are the hitter would be fooled by the pitch. Because Diamond’s fastball and curveball share roughly the same plane for the first 20 feet, opponents are having troubles identifying which is which before it is too late. From his Pitch F/X chart you can see how the fastball (blue circles and red triangles) and the curveball (green squares) have little horizontal movement yet the curveball will have a quick drop: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1856[/ATTACH] Roughly eight miles an hour and several inches of drop separate the two pitches but the two complement each other well. And Diamond continually teases opponents with this breaking pitching which likely keeps opponents off of his fastball. By throwing his curve 30% of the time – the third highest rate among qualified starters – he likely disguises his 89 mile-per-hour fastball effectively. (3) Battler He also possesses a bulldog-like determination on the mound of not giving in to hitters. For starters, he rarely issues free passes or puts himself in drastically bad count situations. Baseball-Reference.com says he has only had 10 3-and-0 counts – the fewest among starters with 100 innings or more. When he does fall behind hitters he is able to navigate out of trouble. While most pitchers are cuffed around when they are behind in the count, according to his “Batters Ahead” split opponents are holding just a 760 OPS. That is more than 200 points better than the league average of 974. Will Diamond remain a winning pitcher? If he continues to have stellar defense and posts a 3.69 expected fielding independent number (xFIP) next year, there is certainly a chance he’ll put up very good stats and win a high portion of his games. Based on his repertoire, consistent peppering of the strike zone and studious nature of the game, there is little reason to think he cannot repeat next season with a similar xFIP. Still, on the flipside, his offense in 2012 has been extremely generous to him. In fact, his 7.40 runs of support per nine innings is the second highest amount of support among qualified starters. If that figure starts to slip in 2013 -- which it is almost certain to do – Diamond is surely due to come up with the short end of the stick. Even great pitchers are unable to manufacture wins without the aid of their hitters – after all, Bert Blyleven can tell you all about losing ball games 2 to 1 or 3 to 2.

I'm a big statistically-oriented, analysis-driven individual with baseball so naturally, when it comes to football, I also gravitate towards the data that goes beyond the boxscore. That's why Football Outsiders, a sister site of Baseball Prospectus, is one of my favorite websites - it breaks down stuff that is deeper than what you find at your standard Fantasy Football coverage. Football Outsiders' Danny Tuccitto recent posted an analysis that involved the performance of quarterbacks in 2011 based on when they were pressured by the opposing defense. Tuccitto uses Football Outsiders' Defense-adjust Value Over Replacement (DVOR), a stat not too different from BP's VORP, to assess how the QBs performed in those pressured circumstances. The first thing of note was that, overall, the Vikings' Christian Ponder was the 11th-most pressured quarterback in the NFL last year. in 26.4% of his dropbacks, Ponder was pressured by the defense. For those who watched the team and their offensive line who seemingly allowed defenses to seep through like crap through Depends of a senior after the nursing home's chili night, this should come as no surprise. Actually, to me, it felt like he was CONSTANTLY under duress and the fact that ten more quarterbacks had more action is a bit enlightening. The Texans gave Matt Schaub very little protection and allowed him to be pressured a league-high 33.3% of the time. Here's the interesting aspect of the data that Tuccitto shares: According to his research, Ponder's performance in those pressure situations ranked 21st (-95.0% DVOA). This is a bad but not terrible performance, especially for a rookie with a shoddy offensive line and lack of a big-bodied receiver to help rescue him when he is in trouble. More concerning, perhaps, is that comparison of Ponder's non-pressure situation performance. The research says that when he doesn't have a lineman or blitzing corner in his face, Ponder ranked 33 out of the 34 quarterbacks (-1.6% DVOA). This will undoubtedly serve as fodder for Ponder haters -- particularly his performance in non-pressure situations -- but we should keep in mind that he's had a poor offensive line and lacked a high quality receiver beyond Percy Harvin (who's stature likely makes him a less ideal target during pressure situations).

The Minnesota Twins have won nine of their last 13 games but the recent successful stretch has not changed Terry Ryan's mind on what should be done with the club for next year. Click here to read what the Twins GM told the Pioneer Press's Charley Walters.

I'M NUMBER ONE! I'M NUMBER ONE! I'M NUMBER ONE!

According to the Plus/Minus system, Alexi Casilla's +13 rating at second base is in the top five (4th) at that position. Small sample size warning but it jives with my eye test on the season.

Fort Myers Miracles' play-by-play man, Brice Zimmerman, tweeted out that Hammond Stadium's radar gun was registering Carl Pavano's fastball at 85 and his "curve" (which I believe he meant change) at 75. That's just slightly below his average velocity on the year - which was down prior to his injury. In his first inning of work, Pavano surrendered a home run but recorded a strike out and got two more ground outs.

Without question.

In theory, that's not a bad decision. After all, Parmelee could not be any worse than Willingham or Doumit in the outfield. What I wonder is, why the Twins have not started to prep for this scenario by having Parmelee get some reps in RF/LF in Rochester. So far, he has not had a single inning in the outfield. If that was indeed the organization's long-term plan for him, they would likely have started to condition him there. However, I would prefer to have both Span & Revere in the outfield - particularly with a high contact pitching staff. Again, with Willingham, Doumit, Morneau and Mauer, there is a shortage of DH/1B/Corner OF positions available so in order to get Parmelee in the mix, someone has to go. It could be Span or Morneau -- but it also could be Parmelee who gets packaged and shipped off.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]1830[/ATTACH]Last night Justin Morneau hit multiple home runs in a game for the third time this season. As impressive as that is, the most noteworthy aspect about that feat is that the Twins first baseman hit both of those off of curve balls – something that he had done only once since 2010. Heading into Monday’s game against the Indians, Morneau’s numbers against curves had been very underwhelming. According to Fangraphs.com, his Pitch Value on curveballs had been 5.7 runs BELOW average – making it the third worst output against benders in all of baseball. But now, after two home runs off of uncle charlies from Zack McAllister and Josh Tomlin, Morneau is looking tougher to retire on that pitch. Why is this significant to his progress? As I wrote about in May, teams had exploited Morneau’s tendency to jump the gun with his swing with a high percentage of curve balls. While he was opening up his front side drastically, opponents who simple throw him a wrinkle. Because he was firing open, the off-speed breaking stuff likely caused him to be too far out front to put a proper swing on the ball. Now, instead of pulling his front side out he has remained locked in on the ball – leading to better connectivity and punch on those pitches. And, because of that, he is hitting .360/.404/.590 since July 5 after going through a series of mechanical adjustments which seemingly have helped him stay back - from the start of the season until July 4, Morneau swung and missed at 14.1% of curves but that rate has dropped to 6.3% since then. In fact, his .415 weighted on-base average over the past 30 days is in the top ten among AL performs. It’s good to see Morneau crushing curve balls again and all pitching in general. As John Bonnes wrote about today, this performance (combined with his soon-to-be expiring contract and Chris Parmelee’s AAA outbreak) may make the 31-year-old attractive to the few clubs in the league who are in need of a high-priced first baseman.

The Star Tribune's Amelia Rayno catches up with former Twins third baseman Corey Koskie on his post-baseball life and the effects he experienced battling through his concussion. Great read.

I think the question here shouldn't be "what is currently available to other teams" but "what teams need a 1B AND can take on $14 million contract". If I am assessing the field, it would seem that the Dodgers/Rangers and maybe to a lesser extent Blue Jays/Orioles are the types of teams that will be in the market for Morneau.