Parker Hageman

That specific nugget can be located at Baseball-Reference.com: 2013 American League PH/HR/Situ Hitting - Baseball-Reference.com

The Star Tribune’s Sid Hartman says today that the Twins and Justin Morneau are not in talks for a contract extension, as the first baseman’s contract is set to expire at the end of this year. Following Wednesday’s game, general manager Terry Ryan was asked if the two sides were working on a deal: Given the Twins’ front office penchant for avoiding contract talks during the season, the revelation by Ryan saying that the team is not discussing a contract with Justin Morneau’s people is completely unsurprising. Does it mean that it won’t happen? Morneau’s 2013 season has been a bit of a mixed bag. Last night was just his third home run of the year, putting him on pace for 10 home runs on the year according to Fangraphs.com’s ZiPs projections. Yet, his 40 runs batted in leads the team thanks to a .329 batting average with men in scoring position. Additionally, he has had 217 baserunners on while hitting - which is the sixth-highest in the American League - and gives him ample opportunity to collect RBIs. Given his age, his expiring contract and earning power if the Twins were to give him a qualifying offer, it appears to be a foregone conclusion that Morneau will be shipped out at the deadline. Trading him may net a C or B-prospect and will clear some of his payroll. That said there does not seem to be an immediate heir apparent for first base. Chris Parmelee and Chris Colabello are options. There will be some inexpensive free agent option to use as a placeholder, but Morneau could be as good of an option as any of them if available at a $7M price range. What do you do?

That was certainly not the only reason he fell but it was part of it too. He was sitting 88-92 according to most reports. For an 19-year-old left-handed pitcher with his build, that is not a reason to turn away. While notably Keith Law had questioned his abilities but plenty of others have loved his projectability. At six-foot-five, there is a lot of improvement that could be made to increase his velocity. It is definitely not static at this point in his development.

Twins fourth round draft pick Stephen Gonsalves - a six-foot-five left-hander - saw his position fall from being a first rounder because of a suspension that cost him a month of his senior season. The Cathedral Catholic (San Diego, CA) graduate never had the reason become but but while at Target Field on Wednesday, Gonsalves told his side of the story: So there you have it. Nothing over-the-top, like getting mixed up with a drug cartel in Mexico. Just some crazy kids smoking reefer.

Are you sure? Who's your source? Dubay?

And LaVelle would be a very good source. As would Roy Smalley, Rick Anderson or Tim Laudner who he has on the show occasionally. I'm not suggesting he is an elite baseball mind, but he has connections. The main purpose for posting this news is to generate a discussion of what the potential moves could be and when they could happen. Gibson? After the deadline? Before the deadline? Would the Twins actually move Willingham and Morneau? Why or why not? You know, forum chat stuff that you nerds love argue about ;-).

Player Card: Samuel Deduno Yes, he goes to his curve a lot in two-strike situations but opponents are hitting just .191 off him when he has two-strikes on a batter. The curve has generated fewer swing-and-misses this year (the fastball has actually obtained more) than the past but it is still getting grounders 63% of the time. I do not see this approach as something he needs to adjust at this point.

During KFAN’s Paul Allen Show this morning, host Paul Allen revealed that his Twins “inside sources” say that the coaching staff and the front office are having a significant meeting today to discuss the on-field personnel. With the trade deadline a little over a month away, Allen’s source indicates that there are decisions that need to be made regarding Kyle Gibson, Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau. The roundtable of the Twins brass likely means there will be moves forthcoming. The current handling of Gibson was discussed at length here while I recently wrote about the struggles of both Willingham and Morneau here.

Minnesota Twins outfield prospect Max Kepler tweeted today that he is finally leaving the extended spring training and heading to join the Cedar Rapids Kernals. The 20-year-old German-born Kepler had a fantastic season at Elizabethton as a 19-year-old last year, hitting .297/.387/.539 with 10 home runs in addition to 16 doubles and a manageable 27-to-33 walks-to-strikeouts ratio. He was also successful in swiping seven bases in seven attempts. Kepler was in Ft Myers nursing an elbow injury back to health.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1916-Bryon-Buxton-continues-to-impress

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4471[/ATTACH]Stop me if you have heard this already but Bryon Buxton is doing stupid good stuff on the baseball field. Already Buxton has proven that he is far and above the competition level in the Midwest League. He is leading the league in on-base percentage (.431), slugging (.561), runs scored (65) and weighted on-base average (.422). More conventionally, he is second in batting average (.344) and triples (8), and third in walks (40). That does not even begin to scratch the surface of his defense capabilities and baserunning prowess. Buxton is having the best performance by an outfielder in Iowa since Shoeless Joe Jackson came waltzing through the cornfield (or at least since Mike Trout anyways). During Fox Sports North’s road trip to Cedar Rapids last week, the televisions in the big city were able to tune in and see what amounts to one of the at any level this year. In case the video clip does not allow you to fully appreciate the difficulty of this catch, please follow along Buxton’s route in order to kill what was most assuredly an extra base hit coming off the bat. From mid-center field, Buxton races to gap, hooking at the end of the route, and makes a leaping dive just before the warning track to send the hitter back to the dugout shaking his head in dismay. This play would have netted him 15,000 UZRs in my book. [ATTACH=CONFIG]4472[/ATTACH] In fact, thanks to his performance, Buxton has put Cedar Rapids back on the map since, well, since the time someone actually penciled Cedar Rapids on a map. Buxton has more speed than the entire Fast & Furious franchise. He has more tools than Home Depot. His future is so bright that we will excuse him when he wears sunglasses indoors even though that is the douchiest move ever. The Twins and scouts will tell you that they knew this would his path from day one. From the moment they laid eyes on kicking up dust rounding the bases in the Georgia clay they knew he was special. When it comes to drafting players, Terry Ryan said that the scouts will be looking for the skills rather than the results. Buxton, said Ryan, had all the skills. Not some: All the skills. It would only be a matter of time before this kid turns into a full-blown super-duper-star. Of course, that’s not the case. It takes plenty of conditioning throughout the minor leagues to develop any player into major-league ready contributor. Rarely can a player simply advance without the necessary prep time. While Buxton came to the Twins organization teeming with talent, there are some adjustments the 19-year-old has made – particularly to his approach at the plate. Prior to his draft Buxton was on the radars of all the prospect hounds. In this , we see Buxton, a few months away from his national selection, putting on a display in front of scouts: [ATTACH=CONFIG]4486[/ATTACH] Look at the length of that stride. With an upright and open stance, Buxton has a significant leg lift and then brings it in. This generates power but leaves him susceptible to more polished pitching. Now, compare that approach to his current model, a little over a year later in this clip supplied by Heinitz Photography: [ATTACH=CONFIG]4487[/ATTACH] Buxton now exhibits a widened base with little stride in his swing. Mechanically speaking, this reduces the potential head movement and should improve contact -- which is very important for someone with his speed. He will soon be the Florida State League’s problem – whose pitchers are just recovering from the destruction left behind by Hurricane Sano – but Buxton’s ability to make large scale adjustments to improve his long-term effectiveness bodes well. While the scouts get a lot of adulation for finding and signing Buxton, credit goes to the Twins instructors and coaches as well for refining what could be a once-in-a-lifetime-type talent.

I'm not opposed to that.

Over the weekend Terry Ryan hinted to reporters that the next in line for a rotation spot may be the left-handed Andrew Albers: Is Albers really pitching better than anyone down there? Including Kyle Gibson? Here is just a cursory look at the pair’s numbers over the last month: Albers (last six starts): 5-0, 38.2 IP, 32-to-10 K-to-BB, .267 average against, .730 OPS against and a 3.26 ERA (3.40 FIP on the year). Gibson (last six starts): 4-0, 42.1 IP, 35-to-15 K-to-BB, .201 average against, .529 OPS against and a 2.55 ERA (3.29 FIP on the year). Frankly, I like Albers. I was able to watch a few of his bullpens in spring training in 2012 and was very impressed by the movement on his pitches – particularly his fastball. He clearly throws strikes but does not miss a ton of bats (8% swinging strike rate). He deserves a shot at the rotation as much as anyone else. What I don’t understand is this none-too-subtle jabs at Gibson’s consistency. Statistically, over the last month and change, his numbers have been superior to those of Albers. He’s pitched more innings, allowed a lower average and has an OPS 200 points lower than Albers. Lacking the personal attention of seeing Gibson pitch in person, I cannot say if he’s unable to location certain pitches or has been falling behind far too much that is unappetizing to the Twins’ brass. It simply cannot be consistency that is keeping Gibson down – he has been at least as consistent as Andrew Albers.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1892-More-home-runs-from-Morneau-hits-from-Willingham

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4428[/ATTACH]On Tuesday night the Minnesota Twins were mounting an assault in the eighth inning on Phillies reliever Mike Adams. Having just relinquished the tying run the half-inning prior, the Twins had runners on the corners and one out. The Outfield’s “Your Love” blasted over Target Field’s sound system indicating that Josh Willingham would be arriving to the plate. Adams, however, was able to get Willingham to pop out in foul territory for the inning’s second out. This brought Justin Morneau to the plate with two down. The Phillies countered with the left-handed Antonio Bastardo. Morneau fouled off four tough pitches before he laced a line drive to center to score Jamey Carroll, giving the Twins the lead which would later be preserved by Glen Perkins in the ninth. In a nutshell, this is the major difference between the team’s two more prominent bats in the middle of the lineup. Willingham, who leads the team with 10 home runs, has seen his overall batting average slip to .214 and has hit .212 in 65 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. Morneau, who has not homered since April 28, has been able to find other ways to drive in runs when needed and has provided a .359 batting average in his 78 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. Willingham’s power has still been a major factor for the lineup but his inability to keep the ball on the playing surface and reach safely has decreased his potency. His pop out to third base on Tuesday was a prime example of his struggles. Equipped with a significant upper-cut swing which helped him take to the skies and jack 35 home runs last year, this same method has been a detriment to him this year. According to Fangraphs.com, Willingham has hit 70 fly balls and 17 of those have not left the infield. That 24.3% infield fly ball rate is second in all of baseball -- behind only Atlanta’s BJ Upton (who is currently impressing his new team with a .161 average) -- and well above his career rate of 13%. This is the main reason his batting average on balls in play has dropped to a career-low .258. Willingham recently told the Star Tribune’s Sid Hartman that: Judging by his splits, Willingham is actually performing better in counts in which he is ahead in the count this year in comparison to last year. This year, he’s batting .273/.500/.545 compared to .244/.473/.494. Where he is experiencing the most decline is in even counts (first pitch, 1-1, 2-2). In 2011, he hit a robust .284/.308/.607 with 17 of his 35 home runs. This year it’s down to .227/.292/.485 and 5 dingers. A cursory search at TexasLeaguers.com’s PitchF/X tool shows that Willingham has seen some of the cherry pitches disappear from a year ago as opponents adjust. In the 1-1 count last year, Willingham saw 40% fastballs. It is down to 30% this year. In 2-2 counts, his slider percentage when up from 20% to 28%. This shows that teams are approaching Willingham slightly different and may be the cause of his high percentage of infield flies. While Willingham is having problems lofting fly balls out of the infield, Morneau is unable to lose them over the fence. Like Willingham, Morneau has also hit 70 fly balls this season yet only two have had enough distance to them so he could jog around all the bases. Morneau’s home runs-to-fly balls rate is at a career-low 2.9%. To put that into context, the 2.9% rate is the 11th-lowest in the majors, squeezing the one-time slugger in between such power threats as Juan Pierre (2.3%) and Marco Scutero (3.3%). Morneau seems flummoxed by this development. In his conversation with Star Tribune’s Jim Souhan Morneau said that he’s doing everything he had in past years but the results are not showing. But will they turn into homers? There could be dozens of factors playing into Morneau’s lack of home runs. Mechanics, injury and age could all be contributors. Mechanically, he’s flying open more than he had in past seasons, which may limit his able to drive the ball down in the zone that he once had demolished regularly. Take a look as his home runs by location since 2008: [ATTACH=CONFIG]4429[/ATTACH] He was able to launch plenty of home runs on pitches right down the middle and middle-low. If a hitter is flying open, that pitch becomes increasingly difficult to drive. Now, the only two home runs he has hit this year have come on pitches inside and out of the zone – a spot easier to drive if a hitter is flying open: [ATTACH=CONFIG]4430[/ATTACH] Beyond that, Morneau’s average distance on his fly balls are down considerably too. According to BaseballHeatMaps.com, from 2010 to 2012, he averaged 278 feet per fly ball. That’s down to 260 this year. Additionally, the speed in which the ball leaves his bat is also down. The extremely small sample size notwithstanding, HitTrackerOnline.com says Morneau’s two home runs averaged an exit speed of 101.4 miles per hour whereas it was 104.4 in 2012, 102.4 in 2011 and 104.9 in 2010. At this rate, if the average speed off of the bat decline is any indication, it seems difficult to believe that Morneau is “just missing” and that there is something else behind his power outage. The Twins tandem in the heart of the order are both having down years for separate reasons. Both, too, are potential trade candidates at the deadline. However, at this pace, the return for either would be quite underwhelming unless they are able to increase their production soon.

Last night I joined the Sportive Podcast -- a Minnesota-bred collection of sports aficionados -- to talk Twins baseball, the draft and the minor leagues. You can listen to the episode here. Fair warning: Swearing and vulgarity plus extended talk of the Northwoods League at the beginning. Enjoy.

Why is it that everyone just goes straight to WAR? I'm not sure why Bremer thought only of WAR when I asked about advanced stats. Is it because it is perceived as the most advanced stat? Or just because it is the hot button stat thanks to the Trout/Cabrera debate?

Nobody is suggesting that they just "blast flashy graphics" on the screen. They need to "blast flashy graphics" of stats that are informative and relevant. For example, the WGN broadcast has recently begun adding the Run Expectancy chart to their games (seen here). This is a statistical nugget that both casual (or "average") baseball fans and the diehards alike can appreciate. Furthermore, they need to produce stat graphics that make sense. During a Boston series in Fenway, FSN flashed the graphic of Mike Napoli on the screen that showed his career splits versus left-handed pitching and right-handed pitching. The stats chosen were as follows: Batting Average/HR/RBI. For Napoli, his career numbers against right-handed pitchers was .255/110/319 compared to .270/45/110. While the graphic was up, Bremer was raving that the Red Sox obtained Napoli for his power against left-handed pitching. The graphic provided no context to show that Napoli was a better power-hitter against left-handed pitching -- no plate appearance totals, no slugging percentages, nothing to back up Bremer's correct assessment. If you are the "average" fan, this graphic and editorial would not make sense. The "average" fan remains an "average" fan by not being educated and enlightened. Going back to the WGN broadcasts -- one of the most widely viewed broadcasts, by the way -- injects plenty of statistical analysis discussions during their games, clearly showing that the "average" fan is not turning off their TVs during these topics. Len Kasper, who holds Bremer's position for the Cubs, described it this way: Nobody is asking broadcasters to recite the WAR of every player who comes to the plate. What needs to be done is to speak to the reason Justin Morneau is obtaining RBIs when he has not hit home runs (Mauer's on-base percentage). Or why the pitching staff allows so many hits (outfield range issues). The team has a closer who openly discusses things like FIP and the concepts behind pitching allowing for a perfect opportunity to talk about that on the air. There is plenty that goes into broadcasts (silence, commentating by ex-ballplayers, etc) that are vital, but educating about the theories of the game should be vital too.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1879-Twins-broadcaster-Dick-Bremer-discusses-advanced-stats-in-the-booth

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4406[/ATTACH]With the exception of one seasons in the early 1980s, Dick Bremer’s rich, jovial voice has been the definite sound of summer for Minnesota Twins fans in the Upper Midwest since 1983. His professionalism, knowledge and ability to entertain a wide audience for many years are the reason the Minnesota Broadcasters Hall of Fame recently selected him for induction. This honor, without question, was well deserved. It is interesting to think how people watch and understand the game of baseball has changed radically from his first days on the job. Back then the bulk of statistical analysis was being done covertly using computers the size and weight of a Kenmore dishwasher (and presumably in mom’s basement). In the same year Bremer began his Twins broadcasts, Bill James released the 1983 Baseball Abstract. In it he summarized the understanding of the game by writing that the walk was greatly undervalued as an offensive weapon and that it was viewed as a “random result of being at bat when a pitcher is stricken with control trouble” rather than a skill. In that same book, James wondered why baseball fans at that time focused too much on the results. Like wins and losses for pitchers, the RBI instead of the men who got on base to create the opportunity, and so on. “If the food is good,” wrote James, “you tip the waitress. Sabermetricians are an odd lot. We always want to know what the recipe was.” That’s the best definition I have ever heard for statistical analysis. Statistical analysis of baseball is wanting to know the recipe. Since then the publication of Moneyball and the rise of websites like Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs have given a broader appeal and understanding to baseball fans regarding the concepts that influence the game, like the importance of walks and beyond. The knowledge of what goes in the recipe has grown tenfold as well as the access to those ingredients too. On the mainstream side, thirty years have passed and baseball’s broadcasters are still wrestling with how – of even if – they should communicate these findings to their audience. While there are some markets who have included some of the principles in their broadcasts, Minnesota has not been one of them. The Twins’ radio broadcaster Cory Provus suggested that his medium is not designed to be able to properly inform without the visuals to drive it home. How about television? Dick Bremer shares his thoughts: How do you see advanced stats as it relates to broadcast today? “Stats have mushroomed into a completely different stratosphere. They call it “broadcasting” because you have to include as many people as you can. I think the new math in baseball tends to exclude a lot of people because a lot of people don’t comprehend it…yet. As we move forward, it will become more and more a part of the lexicon of baseball and it will be incorporated more into the broadcast.” Should broadcasters discuss some of the statistical analysis and advanced metrics most teams use in some capacity for roster-building? “I think it is getting to that point, I don’t know if it is quite there yet because I don’t know if our average viewer knows what WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is. When it gets to that point, then I think that our broadcast and other broadcasts will find it more mainstream subject matter to talk about. I just don’t think it is there yet. If we came on with Batting Average On Balls In Play, for instance, I think our audience – a significant portion of it – still would be, well, what’s that mean as opposed to batting average? Batting average is easy to explain though it is not the ideal stat to determine a hitter’s value in a lineup, but that’s something that everyone can comprehend. We still are in the business of trying to include people and not exclude them." How have the numbers, stats and analysis changed in over your career in the broadcast booth? “When I started this each team produced one sheet, front and back, for their press box. Now it’s five and you get the stat pack which is twenty-some pages and that doesn’t even begin to tell you the numbers you are speaking of, you know, what a player’s Wins Above Replacement is. That doesn’t even touch that and that is still so much more numerical information then we can give in a broadcast.” Television is a medium that gives the opportunity to put visuals of stats on the screen. “When we started giving more and more on the screen, the internal debate among play-by-play guys was now do we still need to give the count? Or do we mention that there are two outs? Or can people see the two dots on the screen? I think the consensus among most play-by-play guys is that we still need to do it because people are doing other things and they’re not locked in on the screen studying everything like some people are but most people are not so you still have to do the basics. Now, if information is given on the screen, the question is maybe the announcer should give other information then what we have to watch for is it becoming a mass of numbers. Even before sabermetricians became more common in baseball that was our great concern: What are we doing on television? We can do some things on TV that they cannot do radio. But are we giving people too many numbers? If you put up a screen full of numbers then you need to leave it on the screen so people can go ‘Ok, alright, ok I get it, this is what they are trying to say’ well then you are not watching the game.” Len Kasper and the Chicago Cubs WGN broadcasts do a regular Stats Sunday feature to discuss the concepts to the fans. Could you see FSN doing something similar? “Absolutely, to educate people, which is what we try to do and is one of our functions - to educate people about how the game is played and how decisions are made by people in the front office – absolutely I can see that happening. It hasn’t happened yet and maybe it is something that, to Len’s point, we should be adapting to or including in our broadcast. Anything that adds to or enhances the enjoyment of the game, that’s our job.” You’ve been broadcasting with the Twins since before the Moneyball area. Have you noticed many changes in the game? “Since then, you’ve seen it everywhere; you’ve seen it in the Twins organization. People are far more aggressive in analyzing the game mathematically. I think most baseball executives still need the new math to pass the eye test – what they see on the field. Are there numbers that support this? One thing that I saw years ago was that Wins Above Replacement was suggesting that Alexi Casilla was a really good middle infielder. I don’t know if anyone who saw him play the game believed that but yet you can find numbers out there that supported that. There’s been a change in that direction, there’s no question, and where it will lead I don’t know, but you still need scouts’ eyes and general managers’ eyes to see what the numbers might support." How about having an analyst dedicated to talking about the statistical side of the game in the broadcast? “If baseball’s new math becomes more mainstream, yeah, and it might very well be heading in that direction. What we have to do as broadcasters though is not talk over the heads of too many people and to the extent that most of our audience does not want to or can’t comprehend baseball’s new math, how much time would we spend trying to educate them over the course of an evening’s broadcast? What is Wins Above Replacement? I hate to keep using that one but that’s actually one of the more elementary ones in terms of explaining what it means. We’re still wondering once or twice a year if we should explain the Infield Fly Rule.”