Parker Hageman

Robot umpires now? You wouldn’t blame Kyle Gibson for wanting them. A recent Wall Street Journal article took an in-depth look at Major League Baseball’s strike zone and found that some teams have benefited from an expanded zone while others suffered from shrinkage. Brian Costa consulted with the locally-owned Inside Edge, a Minneapolis-based company[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] that specializes in harvesting video data for teams to use, and IE’s evaluating system combined with the MLB Pitchf/x system showed that an average of nearly 9% of all pitches were called incorrectly. While the definition of the strike zone is quite clear, the human element influences the outcome of the calls during the game. Writes Costa: Among all the teams, Inside Edge’s data shows that the Twins have been the most wrongly discriminated against when it came to pitches inside the zone that were called balls this season. Just 44.3% of botched pitch calls that were missed were deemed favorable to the Twins. Has this negatively impacted the Twins 2013 season? As Costa’s points out, the Milwaukee Brewers, who at 55.3% have the highest amount of wrongly called pitches go in their favor, have nearly as bad of a record as the Twins. So it appears that even if the Twins had all the calls go their way, it still would not have changed the overall record much. What is interesting is that the Twins pitchers have an overall decent amount of strike zone presence. According to Fangraphs.com’s Pitchf/x data, the Twins pitching staff has the second-highest amount of zone presence at 50.7%. Meanwhile, Inside Edge’s data suggests that Kyle Gibson has been one unlucky fellow – getting just 79.2% of in-zone pitches called a strike. Before you pick up your pitchforks remember Gibson’s in-zone percentage is one of the lowest in the game at 41.9%. Gibson’s chaotic nature combined with his rookie status may have made it difficult for umpires to side with him on his borderline pitches. However, there may have been another factor that influenced his poor strike percentage. While we all have seen the stories and data on Ryan Doumit’s framing issues, but Gibson was spared from having Doumit as his batterymate. Instead, Gibson has drawn Mauer for eight of his 10 starts. While Mauer has been proven to be an excellent receiver when it came to coaxing a call on the high strike, his ability to do the same with a pitch down in the zone was extremely poor. (As suggested in the WSJ piece, it may be due to his large stature which blocks out some umpires.) As a sinkerball pitcher, Gibson works down in the zone with that and a biting slider. With Mauer’s tendency of turning a low strike into a ball, it is no surprise to see a high amount of Gibson’s low pitches being called balls. Gibson, a ground ball pitcher by trade, had his problems further exacerbated, beyond the strike zone, by the percent of grounders turned into hits – his .333 batting average of grounders was nearly 40% higher than the league average. Armed with a solid repertoire, Gibson figures to play a substantial role in the rotation for the Twins in 2014.

Ron Gardenhire is well on his way to his third-straight 90-loss season but Terry Ryan is not tipping his hand on whether or not the game’s second-longest tenured manager will be back in Minnesota in 2014. On with MLB Network Radio’s Power Alley show, Ryan suggested that injuries to key players played a substantial role in the Twins’ third consecutive losing season but he also shouldered a lot of the blame for the current state of the team. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] “It’s been a difficult year in a lot of areas. We’ve had some injuries and certainly losing a few of these guys for stretches hasn’t helped, particularly a guy like Willingham,” Ryan told Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette on Thursday. “And now Mauer’s down. It seems like we’ve had one big piece here missing.” Willingham, who was a force in the middle of the Twins’ lineup in 2013, has missed 38 games in this season due to injuries and repair the meniscus in his knee. Because of the knee-related issues, when he was on the field, he hit a career-worst .210/.348/.385 in 425 plate appearances, a vast majority of those while hitting either third (232) or clean-up (179). Meanwhile Mauer, who had been the team’s best offensive contributor in 2013, has not seen action since August 19th and has missed now 22 games and counting. Of course, Ryan says, injuries are not special to just the Twins. “We have some good things happen here,” said Ryan, addressing some of what he viewed as positives. “Record-wise isn’t one of them but there are some things here – our bullpen has been pretty good up until, you know, when you overexpose those guys they’re gonna start to falter some, but they’ve been pretty good. And Perkins has anchored that bullpen staff. Regardless of ERA and those types of things, even Correia and Pelfrey, they’ve done what you might want to expect.” One aspect of the team’s performance that Ryan called out was the offense’s inability to score runs, a byproduct of having a .228 average with runners in scoring position. “And some of the offense has been my major concern because we haven’t scored runs,” Ryan noted. “We have had people all over out there and we just haven’t got them in. Now I have to take full responsibility for the roster and Gardy has continued to work and grind and his coaches are tremendous workers. So you take all that into consideration and I’m still at the point now when the season concludes we’ll sit down and figure this out and then we’ll move forward.” Ferrin then pressed Ryan, asking him pointblank if the team is leaning one way or another but Ryan deferred. “Yeah, that is going to have to wait, Mike. It’s one of those things where I’ve promised ownership and our people here and Gardy and the staff down there that once the season concludes we’ll get together and make a final call.” Ryan remains mum on Gardenhire's status but this winter figures to be a busy offseason -- one that could include finding Gardy's replacement.

There is a baseball adage among scouts and evaluators that you get fooled in spring training and in September. In both cases, teams are giving opportunity to evaluate younger, inexperienced players to often face other younger, inexperienced players. Have a big Grapefruit League performance, like outfielder Aaron Hicks, and suddenly you may find yourself with a starting position in April. Similarly, have a big September call-up performance, as Chris Parmelee did in 2011, and the following year you may be at the top of the depth chart. Success (or failure) in these environments can cause even the best evaluators to make ill-advised decisions. Former manager Bobby Valentine had been vocal about avoiding evaluating players based on September play. As did former Rockies manager Jim Tracy, who scoffed at the idea of evaluating players on a twenty-two game sample in 2011. Twins general manager Terry Ryan, a former scout himself who has seen plenty of September baseball, agreed. “I’m not so sure you can’t equate it to success or failure,” Ryan said recently in terms of evaluating his call-ups performance in the season’s final month. There are players who will excel and those who tank miserably, and this sampling should not be reflective of their long-term expectations. Even so, it is hard not to want to embrace players like catcher Josmil Pinto. Much like Parmelee did in 2011, Pinto has grabbed the remaining Twins fans’ attention by hitting 13-for-23 (.565) with six extra base hits over his first seven games. Since 1980, only Jay Bruce (.577) had a better start to his career through seven games. Beyond just the numbers, Pinto’s offensive skill set has certainly been impressive. Prior to Tuesday’s game against the A’s, he had demonstrated solid strike zone judgment while making excellent contact. In fact, he had seen 49 fastballs and swung-and-missed at only one. In addition to that, the Venezuelan backstop had ripped line drives all over the field – proving that he was not just an eager rookie swinging from his heels. Now, it is sad, depressed jerks like me who have to use this platform to point out that this production is unsustainable. When it comes to the numbers, seven games is absolutely nothing. And so are the next baker’s dozen or so after this. Nothing that Pinto does statistically makes him the automatic heir to the catcher’s throne in 2013. Like Parmelee, Pinto has not received the full-out advanced scouting treatment. In September 2011, people loved Parmelee’s approach and his ability to put a charge into the ball. Meanwhile, in 2012, opponents created a better game plan suited to getting him out. While they adjusted, Parmelee struggled to keep up. Since that magical month, he has hit just .226/.301/.374 in 149 games. In Pinto’s case, he’s been very successful in counts in which pitchers attack the zone, like when he is ahead in the count (6-for-8, .750) and on even counts (5-for-7, .714). In last night’s game alone, the A’s staff threw Pinto 18 pitches, of which 15 were fastballs. As advanced scouts begin to see this pattern, they will likely advise their pitchers to change their approach – maybe more off-speed stuff or pitches on the edges of the plate. The Twins will travel to Oakland next week and for the first time in his major league career, opponents will have a second chance to game plan him. By that time, expect some changes in the pitchers’ approach. That match-up will be a milestone in his player development – will he be able to adjust at the plate along with the pitchers? This is not to say that Pinto cannot have a solid career in baseball. Over his eight minor league seasons, he has posted a 790 OPS. For comparison, former top catching prospect Wilson Ramos managed a 756 OPS in his six minor league seasons. Ramos, who started his major league career two years younger than Pinto, has continued to hit above-average for the Washington Nationals. Pinto can be a solid contributor for 2014 but do not base it on his performance in this month alone.

On Thursday, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs.com tweeted out a very depressing but all too telling statistic about the Minnesota Twins’ rotation: The bullpen staff has 17 more strikeouts than the starting rotation. Sure, it is bleak but it is not as historically awful as it sounds: The current 12.3% strikeout rate by the Twins’ staff ranks 203rd among MLB starting rotations dating back to 1961. The issue, however, is that the Twins are trending in the wrong direction. Since 2008 [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]he game has seen a proliferation of K’s like no other era. In fact, since 2008, the strikeout rate in MLB has been set and broken each season. Meanwhile, this season’s 18.7% league-wide strikeout rate has been the best ever. As bats have become more porous or the strike zone has expanded or the ball has become easier to spin, the Twins have failed to collect any pitchers who can capitalize on this growing whiff movement. At the player development level, the organization is slowly bringing along hurlers who have strikeout capabilities but the cavalry is still several years away. While developing pitchers is ultimately the best method for long-term success, it is clear in order to improve soon the Twins will have to acquire an arm either by trade or the free agent market. As one Twins front office member described to me, the organization has had interest in plenty of free agent starting pitchers but have been eschewed by the players and their agents for competitive reasons. For example, while his season wound up plenty disappointing, the veteran Dan Haren’s interest was to play for a presumed contender in the Washington Nationals. So after what will be a third 90-loss season, the Twins may yet again fall short of being able to lure a pitcher with a similar track record as a Dan Haren. Of course, money can change minds and the Twins may be at the point of needing to overpay for talent – at least to appease the dwindling ticket-buying consumers. Here are four strikeout pitchers who should be on the team’s radar: Tim Lincecum: A two-time Cy Young winner as recently as 2009, the now 29-year-old Lincecum has fallen from elite status as his velocity has dipped and his walk rate swelled. Hitters were able to tee up on both his fastball and change-up in 2012 which dramatically increased his home run rate. What’s interesting about the home run distribution lately is that the vast majority are pulled. Prior to the velocity decrease in 2012, the ones he allowed were to the middle of the park – hitters were not able to yank his offerings. Now, they have turned on the fastball/change as the velo discrepancies shrank significantly. Why would the Twins want him? Well, he still misses bats at a very high rate. As it stands right now, the Twins’ bullpen has more strikeouts than the starting rotation. Strikeouts are fascist but this rotation is desperate for a little of that action. Of the soon-to-be free agent starters, Lincecum’s 23.8% strikeout rate over the last three years leads the group. That would be a pretty sexy addition. The downside is he walks a ton too and that is the baggage the organization has shied away from. What’s more, Target Field is much more home run friendly than Lincecum’s former home at AT&T Park in San Francisco so in addition to seeing lineups with DH's upon switching from the NL to the AL, he could also be stepping into an environment which will inflate his home run rate. Ervin Santana: The word is Santana actually likes pitching in Kansas City, which means he may opt to stick around America’s bread basket. That puts the Twins at a disadvantage considering the Royals are actually competitive and the Twins are still in a rebuild. That said, it is possible that the Royals decide to not bring him back and, considering his volatility in recent years, he may be a less desired product than some of the other free agents on the market. Whatever he did, he started to throw more strikes and pepper the zone regularly while in a Royals uniform. This translated into fewer walks. He kept the ball down better which resulted in fewer home runs as well, which was a huge change from the previous season. Last year he allowed 39 home runs but has reduced that to 22 so far this year. One interesting note: After allowing 16 home runs up the middle, he has allowed just 7 that direction this year. (Caveat: It is possible that the 39 home runs allowed in 2012 were simply fluky when you consider how many left the park in the furthest reaches of the field.) Over the past three years, Santana’s held the second-lowest batting average on balls in play (.240) among free agents. This usually means hitters have a tough time squaring up on a pitcher – which is true for Santana – however he allowed 39 home runs a year ago meaning that a vast majority of balls that would have counted towards that BABIP left the field in a painful way. Phil Hughes: Baseball America’s fourth overall prospect in 2007. As a major leaguer, Phil Hughes’ career has been inconsistent in New York. Part of that may have to do with facing the beasts of the AL East while another half of that is performing in Yankee Stadium with the favorable hitting conditions. How badly has Yankee Stadium victimized him? Since 2000, Hughes’ home run-to-fly ball ratio of 13.1% has been the 14th highest in baseball among those with 300 innings. Meanwhile, away from Yankee Stadium, Hughes has had a 7% home run-to-fly ball ratio, the second-lowest among starting pitchers (only Clayton Kershaw is better). Clearly, moving him away from the Bronx and say moving into a home run suppressing venue like Target Field would be in his best interest. In terms of strikeouts, he will not put up gaudy totals. In fact, his rates are surprisingly average in that department. His slider is his only swing-and-miss pitch and that carries just a 12.6% swinging strike rate (below average for a slider). Johan Santana: Yes, the former Twin has had a rash of dehabilitating injuries in New York and the most recent one offers no guarantee that he will be ready to shoulder an entire season but, when healthy, he’s been a dominating force. He has expressed interest in pitching again in 2013 and will need just a one-year, make good Mike Pelfrey-type of deal. How sweet would it be to see Santana out on the Target Field mound again? (Answer: Very.) Beyond just nostalgia, there is a possibility that Santana may actually pitch well too. In 2012, his last healthy season, Santana whiffed 22.3% of batters faced. The velocity certainly isn’t what it used to be, as he now has a DeLorean fastball (88 miles per hour) but that cotton ball of a change-up has still made batters look foolish as hell. The flipside is that both age (34) and numerous surgeries could mean that Santana never recovers and winds up a Rich Harden or Joel Zumaya for the Twins. It would definitely be a low risk but high reward move. Plus I want to rock the “Santana” shirsey one last time. Man oh man.

Player development facilities have come a long way from the days of Branch Rickey and his infamous sliding pits. With numerous organizations moving into new or renovated complexes, the Minnesota Twins are trying to avoid being left behind. On Thursday, the Twins began construction on updating their spring campus. David Dorsey of the News Press highlights the progress of the Lee County Sports Complex: The addition of the minor league player academy is a solid investment for the team’s future. As other organizations either add on to their existing spring training facilities or built new ones altogether, Hammond Stadium and the Lee County Sports Complex were falling behind the times. For example, while Boston’s recently completed Jet Blue Stadium complex had seven complete fields the Lee County Sports Complex had just five. When Jet Blue opened the fields along with their state-of-the-art training facilities, it was deemed as a significant “competitive advantage” for the team’s player development system by Boston’s COO Sam Kennedy. Furthermore, with the game’s continued international growth, the new on-site dormitories should give foreign-born players an easier transition into the new culture and game rather than having to live away from the training area. The Pirates, who train up the gulf coast in Bradenton, completed a similar project at their famed training site, Pirate City. Renovated in 2008, Pittsburgh’s on-site dormitories have 75 player rooms and make it mandatory for all players in Minor League camp to live in one of the dorm rooms. Meanwhile Hammond Stadium, the home of both the Twins and Fort Myers Miracle, is also getting a much needed face lift. The Twins have also requested that the field’s dimensions be changed to match the geometry of Target Field – which means large power alleys and a few more feet added to the left-center field area. This should help the evaluation process and prepare the players better for the conditions experienced at the major league level rather than watching towering flies that would normally be caught drift over the outfield wall. Overall, the expansion focuses on the on-field product however there is plenty that will elevate the game day experience for the legions of fans who make the trip to southwest Florida. Beyond the outfield walls, the Twins plan to add a right field party deck (rendering below) as well as a boardwalk that circles the field, similar to the one that the Pirates constructed at their Bradenton, Florida facilities. Likewise, the metal bleachers will be converted to conventional seat-backs. In all, the stadium will increase capacity to 9,300, which is still several thousand less the Red Sox and the new Cubs’ spring training home. The current configuration of Hammond has a significant stair climb to the main concourse level. During much of spring training, this area has been highly congested because of the small walkways made even smaller with concession stands and a popular retail shop. The expansion plans, Dorsey writes, will eliminate the gift shop and open up a view of the field for those arriving up the flight of stairs. Additional restrooms will be installed and concession areas will be expanded to accommodate for the increasing spring crowds. While a substantial portion of the bill is being paid by Lee County, for the new improvements the Twins will have the Red Sox to thank. Based on a clause in their 2004 lease agreement, the talks of expanding the Lee County Sports Complex and Hammond Stadium began when the Boston Red Sox relocated from City of Palms Park to Jet Blue Stadium. As accordance to the agreement between Lee County and the Minnesota Twins, the club had the right to request and construct improvements that have been “approved or constructed by the County in any other spring training facility to which the County is an owner or lessor” as is the case with Jet Blue Stadium. The entire project should be completed by 2015.