ThePuck

If that's the argument then every single team in baseball is a contender every year...sold...without exception. Cool...2016 it is. Heck, why not this year?

I mentioned his contract would be coming off the books along with the contracts of the other players mentioned in the post I quoted...

I'm not being a naysayer...I'm asking whether or not people feel he'd DH since Doumit does a lot of that. I also don't see Willingham being with the team past his contract, at the longest, or Mauer being a primary DH that soon

Would be even think to slot Hermann as DH?

The 2011 payroll was due to raises to players we already had...mostly Mauer. Even though payroll was over 100M, they didn't go sign any high priced FAs to go for it or to put the 2010 over the hump. In fact, they jettisoned their MI and gutted the bullpen

Yeah, but you said they spent the money on other FAs. Some of it, yes, but not event he majority of it. (Oh, and those three were offered contracts much lower than those players knew they could get elsewhere...probably why they didn't want to re-sign...at least a good part) In any event, the 2011 payroll was because of raises due to players we already had...mostly Mauer. Even though payroll was over 100M, they didn't go sign any high priced FAs to go for it or to put the 2010 over the hump. In fact, they jettisoned their MI and gutted the bullpen

But payroll dropped by 18M....those three got a combined 27M in 2011.

That's not the case with me at all...when presented with a strong counterargument based on actual trends or stats or something close to pretty strong evidence, I'll change my opinion...or at least be open to the fact I could be wrong. Truth is, for me, it's about getting to the truth. If I'm wrong and I'm shown to be wrong, I'll happily admit it..especially in a case like this where it'd mean we were much better than I think we'll be. Unfortunately you haven't presented that.

You're switching from plate appearances to ABs. You mention Mauer's plate appearances with RISP to get the larger number, then Zobrists ABs to get the lower number. Zobrist had 142 plate appearances with RISP and only had 40% of his overall plate appearances were in the 3 spot. He also had 144 PAs combined between 1 and 2 spots... So, you're saying if Mauer gets roughly the same amount of plate appearances (641) as he did last year, he's only going to have, at MOST, 128 plate appearances with RISP...in the 3 spot. That would be 'at least one-third' of a dropoff, which is what you had said. Something to watch for that's for sure. He had more than that in 2007 when he only played 109 games and had 170 less plate appearances.

And Blackburn's contract as well

From Fangraphs when talking about an offensive comparison for the MVP: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trout-versus-cabrera-offense-only-context-included/ This metric is called RE24. It’s been on the site for years, and is available as part of our Win Probability section. We don’t use it a lot, because in general we prefer to talk about players from a context-neutral perspective, but for the purpose of this discussion, it might just be the perfect metric. RE24 is essentially the difference between the run expectancy when a hitter comes to the plate and when his at-bat ends. For example, September 16th, Cabrera came to the plate against Joe Smith with runners at first and second and two outs, a situation where the Tigers would be expected to score 0.33 runs on average. Cabrera hit a three run home run, so they actually scored three runs, and RE24 gives Cabrera credit for +2.67 runs, the gap between what they were expected to score and what they actually scored. Unlike with context-neutral statistics like wRC+, RE24 takes the number of outs and number of baserunners into account. It does not assume that all home runs are equal, nor does it treat a strikeout with a man on third base and one out as just another out. The rewards for performing with men on base are higher, and the blame for failing in those same situations is steeper as well. This is a metric that essentially quantifies the total offensive value of a player based on the situations that he actually faced. This is not a theoretical metric. If you hit a three run home run, you get more credit than if you hit a solo home run. If you are consistently getting hits with two outs to drive in runs, you get more credit than if those hits come with no outs and the bases empty. And, of course, it’s only an offensive metric, so there’s no defensive component, no position adjustments, and no replacement level. This is just straight up offense, adjusted for the context of the situations that they faced. Mauer finished 6th in the AL. Of course, that's SABR stuff, so if we look at normal stats... He had an OPS over 1.000 with RISP. He hit better than WIllingham did with RISP. And you are surprised some think that on this team, he should bat third?

I don't put much value in stolen bases...Bill James did a great study that showed the minimal value of the stolen base. Believe me when I tell you, I get the value of Span (was my favorite Twin behind Morny) and Revere but a lot of that was defense...and we aren't talking defense right now. Yeah, we're gonna take a hit in the one and two spot, Mauer would likely have a dropoff of RISP situation, but it's not gonna be a third.

I'm high on our prospects...Arcia, Hicks, Sano, Rosario...all of four of them...and Hicks is likely the only one who will sniff time this year...so, going into 2016, all but Hicks will have 2 or less years in the Majors. Then there's May and Meyer...2 or less years in the majors going into 2016 as well...Parmellee and Mauer will likely be the old timer position players in 2016. The '87 team...took them 5 years. So, yeah, 2 years in basically right away...and we'd need to have almost all of them perform up to our high expectations by then to be maybe be contenders. If you wanna believe 2016 is a realistic time to be division contenders go for it...but it's not. Not if we're counting on mostly guys still in the minors right now.

So ALL of our prospects are gonna come up and be what we hope they'll be RIGHT AWAY...making us contenders in 2016, while the other teams are doing, what?

It's not baseless negativity...he's cut payroll by 32M in two offseasons and is preparing to have a team in the near future that consists of starting players who are prospects now...and Mauer You're saying the Twins will do what they have never done before, go hit the FA market bigtime... What are YOU basing your optimism on in regards to that? I have a pattern of action, what do you have? Baseless optimism.. Edit...sarcasm for affect, not to be mean

Where's that bridge you're selling?

Perhaps...perhaps...but really, Span and Revere's OBPs weren't THAT good last year...were they?

Not just a high BA w/RISP, a high OBP with RISP (.500) and a pretty good slg% w/RISP as well (.514).

He hits way too well with RISP to do that. He hits better than Willingham with RISP, even this last season in WIllingham's career year. I like Mauer in the 3 spot. Mauer needs to stop listening to the masses and stop trying to pull the ball so much. Those GB rates would go back to normal.

They'll be fun to watch in 2015/2016...

exactly...hitters who strike out little, make a lot of contact, and have runners on base in front of them often will occasionally GDP. Last year, Mauer GDP in less than 4% of his plate appearances. In 2011, the top 5 in GDP were Pujols, AGone, Hunter, Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera. I mean, seriously, you have to be grasping at straws to worry about GDP...

2015/2016 is when most of our best prospects should be up...not sure that automatically makes them contenders. 2016 is a bit unrealistic.

I'm not sure there's a more worthless stat to judge a batter by than GDP.

For me, Mauer hits too well with RISP to be batting 2nd.

I didn't include Morny, cause I think he'll be well gone by 2015...