Seth Stohs

It's pretty rare when you read me writing about any advanced statistics. I don't mind reading them and trying to understand what they mean and what they are telling me about a player. But I very rarely use more than a Triple Slash line (BA/OBP/SLG) with the OPS in parentheses. I like OPS, but like all stats, it needs to be used in context, and it's OK to ask questions about it. For instance, OPS is a combination of On-Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG). On-Base Percentage looks at the number of times a player gets on base by hit, walk or hit by pitch. Slugging Percentage basically assigns a value to all hits. A single is one base. A double is two bases. A triple is three bases and a home run is four bases. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It becomes apparent quickly that Hits are included in both of these numbers. I am certain that others have evaluated the following idea: since it is really included in both OBP and SLG, what if we subtracted Batting Average from the OPS to avoid duplication? How would an OPS ranking look differently than an (OPS-BA) ranking? I admit that I went into the analysis not knowing what it would show, but I thought I would share it with Twins Daily's readers just to get some thoughts and your analysis along with mine. How much will the ranking change, and what does it mean? To do so, I looked at two lists, and there was one common name. I looked at the numbers for a dozen Minnesota Twins hitters this season. I then took a look at the Top 20 MLB hitters in OPS. The common player, of course, is Joe Mauer who is currently 14th in the big leagues in OPS. Here are 12 Twins hitters, ranked by their OPS and also looking at their (OPS-BA) and how that ranking changes: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500, align: center] Name OPS BA OPS Rank OPS-BA Rank Joe Mauer .916 .330 1 .586 1 Oswaldo Arcia .823 .271 2 .552 2 Trevor Plouffe .778 .271 3 .507 4 Josh Willingham .751 .216 4 .535 3 Justin Morneau .725 .286 5 .439 8 Ryan Doumit .718 .238 6 .480 5 Clete Thomas .716 .278 7 .438 9 Chris Parmelee .703 .238 8 .465 6 Brian Dozier .678 .229 9 .449 7 Eduardo Escobar .664 .236 10 .428 10 Pedro Florimon .633 .230 11 .403 11 Aaron Hicks .575 .179 12 .396 12 [/TABLE] Analysis: Joe Mauer is good. No matter how you look at it. Oswaldo Arcia has hit well. Eduardo Escobar, Pedro Florimon and Aaron Hicks have been pretty poor offensively, again, no matter how you evaluate it. Where there is some difference in the rankings really come in the middle. Justin Morneau has the 5th highest OPS, but his OPS-BA drops him to 8th on the list. It appears to me that what this analysis does is makes the value of extra base hits stand out more. Morneau has a decent batting average, but doesn't have a lot of extra base hit power, so his numbers drop in this analysis. I think that is a fair statement. It also shows that although Chris Parmelee and Brian Dozier have not hit for average, they have hit for some power. So, what does it look like when we analyze the Top 20 hitters in baseball? Can we make similar statements? [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500, align: center] Name OPS BA OPS Rank OPS-BA Rank Chris Davis 1.116 .331 1 .785 1 Miguel Cabrera 1.106 .370 2 .736 2 Troy Tulowitski 1.048 .347 3 .701 3 David Ortiz 1.005 .316 4 .689 5 Carlos Gonzalez .992 .300 5 .692 4 Michael Cuddyer .968 .339 6 .629 8 Joey Votto .957 .326 7 .631 7 Paul Goldschmidt .956 .306 8 .650 6 Adam Lind .939 .330 9 .609 15 Carlos Gomz .925 .313 10 .612 13 David Wright .923 .309 11 .614 12 Evan Longoria .923 .301 11 .622 9 Mike Trout .918 .306 13 .612 13 Joe Mauer .916 .330 14 .586 16 Yadier Molina .899 .353 15 .546 20 Jean Segura .897 .336 16 .561 19 Edwin Encarnacion .893 .271 17 .622 9 Shin-Soo Choo .890 .274 18 .616 11 Ryan Braun .890 .304 18 .586 16 Carlos Beltran .879 .305 20 .575 18 [/TABLE] Analysis: These guys are all having very good years, so this is not meant in any way to degrade what they are accomplishing. But again, we see that this analysis does minimize the value of batting average. The higher the batting average, the lower the OPS-BA, which, just makes sense since that's what we are subtracting. But that's exactly what we are trying to do as it is duplicated in the OPS calculation. What it is saying is that the higher the OPS-BA, the more often that a player walks or gets a hit that is more than a single. So, what do you think? Is OPS overvaluing batting average? If you were a GM, would you use OPS or OPS-BA to evaluate a player's value to the organization or in trade discussions? Discuss.

When last night’s minor league report was completed around midnight, there was seemingly nothing on the horizon. Eight hours later, we learned that Pedro Hernandez had made a six hour drive from Louisville, Kentucky to Cleveland to make a spot start because Mike Pelfrey was put on the disabled list with back spasms. He got the win despite walking six in five innings and was immediately demoted following the game. Soon after, we learned the Kyle Gibson was promoted and will start on Saturday. Less than an hour later, Twins Daily became aware Byron Buxton was going to be promoted and soon after that, Jim Crikket got verification from Jake Mauer. Two big moves in one day![PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Gibson tweeted the following late on Sunday evening (OK, early on Monday morning): "As much as I would love to personally thank each and every one of you who have helped me along the way, as well as thank each and every person for the kind words on here, it would be impossible!! So a broad "Thank You" will have to do for now!! God has blessed my wife & I with great family and friends, and we are excited for this new journey and opportunity He has put in front of us! Thank you all for your support and I am looking forward to living out my dream as long as God has it in His plans! Thank you all very much!!!" In all my time covering the Twins minor league system, so many Twins players have been just tremendous people. Kyle Gibson may be at the top of the list when it comes to class. He is as genuine as it gets, so it is great to see him finally get this opportunity, likely two years after he had hoped. There were more than just transactions. There were five games on the Twins' minor league docket. The Kernels offense kept things going. The E-Twins offense hasn’t clicked yet. Chris Colabello has yet to slow down. Check out what happened in the Twins' farm system Sunday: Rochester Red Wings 8, Louisville Bats 5 Box Score Chris Colabello was at it again Sunday. After hitting his 16th home run Saturday, he went 2-4 with a walk and his 17th home run on Sunday. Drew Butera was 2-4 in the game. All nine Red Wings starters had at least one hit. Andrew Albers continued to pitch well. He improved to 7-2, going five innings and giving up one run on five hits and two walks. He struck out six. Cody Eppley came on and gave up two runs on three hits in two innings; he walked none and struck out two. Blake Martin came on to start the eighth and got one out, was charged with two runs on two hits and one walk. Michael Tonkin recorded the final five outs for his fifth save. New Britain Rock Cats 3, Akron Aeros 4 Box Score There was talk of Trevor May making the 45 minute drive north from Akron to Cleveland to make the spot start on Sunday for the Twins, but rightfully, the Twins nixed that. It certainly would not have been the ideal situation for a big league debut. Instead, he made his scheduled start for the Rock Cats in Akron. He gave up three runs on six hits and a walk in 5.2 innings. He struck out five. Dakota Watts came on and was perfect for 1.1 innings. Bobby Lanigan entered and gave up a run on two hits and a walk in his inning. He struck out one. Josmil Pinto led the offense, going 2-4 with his 16th double. Eddie Rosario added his second double while Curt Smith doubled for the eighth time. Ft. Myers Miracle 7, Jupiter Hammerheads 5 Box Score Manuel Soliman made his first start in Ft. Myers in over a year. He missed most of the 2012 season after having had shoulder surgery. He rehabbed throughout he offseason and began this season in the Cedar Rapids bullpen. Recently, he was promoted to Ft. Myers. He gave up two runs on eight hits and two walks in 5.2 innings. He struck out three. Nelvin Fuentes came on and gave up one hit and walked a batter, but didn't allow a run in 1.1 innings. Corey Williams gave up three runs (2 earned) on two hits and four walks in one inning. Zach Jones came on and got the final three outs, two of them on strikeouts, to record his ninth save. Mike Kvasnicka kept his hot streak going. He went 2-4 with his second homer (in as many days) and drove in three runs. His home run came right after Matt Koch’s fifth homer. Aderlin Mejia and Jhon Goncalves each went 2-5. Cedar Rapids Kernels 13, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers 9 Box Score The Kernels had 18 base knocks on Saturday night. On Sunday, they had 20. Interestiingly, Wisconsin’s starter was Marco Estrada, the Brewers starter who was making a rehab appearance. Jorge Polanco went 4-6 with his 20th double. JD Williams was 3-4 with a walk, his sixth home run and his 13th stolen base. Max Kepler went 3-6 with his second and third doubles and three RBI. Adam Walker went 2-5 with his 11th home run. Travis Harrison was 2-5 with a walk and his 22nd double. Dalton Hicks was 2-4 with a walk. In his final Kernels game, Byron Buxton went 2-5 with a walk and his 10th triple. The chief beneficiary of the run support was Hudson Boyd, who really needed it. He was able to get through five innings with Terry Ryan in the stands. However, he gave up five runs on eight hits and six walks. He struck out just one, but he gets credit for the win. Caleb Brewer came on and gave up four runs on four hits in two innings. Steven Gruver struck out two over the final two scoreless innings. Photo by Tim Gale Elizabethton Twins 5, Bristol White Sox 3 (10 innings) Box Score The offense of the E-Twins has not yet been able to get it going. Through seven innings, they had just two hits. Down 3-0, the team scored three in the 8th. A Bryan Haar RBI single was followed by a two-run double from Rory Rhodes. The game went to the tenth and it was Mitchell Garver who came up with the two-run single that put the team ahead for good. Garver was 2-5 with a double. Rhodes was 2-4 with a walk. The double was his second. Tanner Vavra hit his first double. Hein Robb made his first start for the E-Twins. He gave up three runs on four hits and a walk in five innings. He struck out one. Andrew Ferreira worked two perfect innings. Dallas Gallant gave up one hit in two scoreless innings. Luis Nunez gave up two hits, but no runs, in one inning. He struck out two. GCL Twins No Games on Sundays. Please feel free to comment or ask questions below.